I am back again writing to you about another interesting idea I had. We are now at a nice point in NPBSL history where we have a sufficient sample size to allow us to start comparing seasons and teams to each other, in some regards. As a result of this and the fact that we were sitting here waiting on some sims of the finals. Actually as I write this I see that two of the games have been simmed, so I really need to get to writing before I look like I get something VERY wrong. I decided that I would take all of the teams that have competed in the finals to date, which are eight teams including this season, and put them in their own playoff series to decide who would win the inaugural NPBSL Finals Playoffs! To make it a little more interesting, I also put all of the data associated to the two teams from each season into an AI bot to see what it also thought would be the ultimate winner. The data I input was the regular season records and finals record, the team stats, player attribute stats, and game stats for the regular season from the team pages for the teams, and then finally the playoff league leaders for each season. My hope was that providing all of this data made the AI bot be more analytical with the results then my eye test decisions for the winners. I also wanted to provide more interesting details for you, my humble readers. For clarification, I will italicize everything that comes from the AI bot. I also did my analysis independent of the AI bot and did not base my results on what the AI bot had decided for their results.
I made the seeding for the teams pretty simple. I went with the winning teams getting the one through three seeds, then the losing teams seeds four through six, and finally the two teams playing now as the seven and eight seeds. I also used the regular season records to determine within the above tiers who would be ranked where. The seeds were as follows:
1 seed: Kings Season 3
2 seed: Nuggets S2
3 seed: Nets Season 1
4 seed: Bucks S2
5 seed: Bucks Season 3
6 seed: Trailblazers Season 1
7 seed: Bucks Season 4
8 seed: Trailblazers Season 4
Writer's Note: most of this article was written before the finals was ran. It also would not have changed anything from the seeding perspective. It may have changed the AI's decision on who would win certain series but I am almost glad it did not have the data, and would most likely not provide finals records if I did this again.It did not change my opinion, as the article had already been written to a point where I would not have been altered by the results. With that said, here are the results.
Round 1 Matchups:
(1) Kings S3 vs (8) Trailblazers S4
(2) Nuggets S2 vs (7) Bucks S4
(3) Nets S1 vs (6) Trailblazers S1
(4) Bucks S2 vs (5) Bucks S3
(1) Kings S3 vs (8) Trailblazers S4
So looking at this matchup, I think that it is an interesting matchup given that they also played in this playoffs with the Kings having a the same core to last season that won it all. They don't have quite the depth at the bigs they had last season, which looking at that matchup really hurt Darth. He still has his great core in place of last season, to go with swapping out some secondary players for more experienced players and a deeper depth compared to high end depth players. Wig has always built strong cohesive teams that fit a mold he wants and this is clear with this team. He has seven players scoring double digit and are also nasty dirty, looking to hurt anyone that gets in their way. The Kings are also really well built. Darth did an excellent job of building a team that the starting five is hard to beat and relies on it stars to really get the job done. I could see Kelly Trupica being someone that causes a lot of problems for the Kings in this than the bigs were causing for the Kings in the playoffs of Season 4. This, and combined with Wig's gameplanning, I could even see the series going a full seven games. Unfortunately, like most first round series so far, I think the Kings would matchup well with the Trailblazers for this simulation, having a better front court depth and cohesion, and will get revenge for the real simulation loss they received this season Kings win this series and advance in six.
1 Seed Kings S3 advance
(1) Kings S3 vs (8) Trailblazers S4
Winner:
Trailblazers S4Series: 4–1
Summary: A shocking upset as the 8th seed knocks off the #1 Kings in just 5 games. Trailblazers S4 came out swinging and never let up.
(2) Nuggets S2 vs (7) Bucks S4
Ok. So first of all, Frye the Nuggets. They are so salty to me any chance they get and I know all that they are going to read is this portion that they are in... so Nuggets are eliminated in four. Congrats Bucks. Is JediHero gone yet? Has he stopped reading and gone back to the chat to complain about this article? Yea? Good. Now I can write some good things about them I guess. This team was set up well post creation draft, where Jedihero did his jedi mind tricks in the draft to get some good value later on. I guess knowing how to work excel can work well for you at times. Looking at this team page was hilarious, because of the sheer size of the roster. FIFTEEN PLAYERS were on the roster for the finals! You are usually seeing at most twelve by this point and only like nine are playing any minutes. The core was a solid one with players throughout of Roundfield, English, and Lucas. He had all three levels covered and all did their jobs very well. The Bucks in S4 are also a very strong team, coming off a finals loss the previous season, they were hoping to make a rebound and be a true Alpha among Chads. With his core either just entering their primes or not in them at all, all under 26, he was coming back stronger than last season for sure. The dynamic of Lister and McHale are truly a great big combo that is looking to be the theme of two strong bigs in this NPBSL league right now. He also has the players around them that are great compliments and even a wildcard player in his SF leading the team in assists for the year. Looking at the matchup between these two teams I think the Nuggets relied A LOT on English and Roundfield to score, and while also controlling the turnovers of the game having elite steals and assists for their seaoson, and that worked in S2. That won't work in this simulation and the Bucks will shut down Roundfield at the very least, which will be a hit to the kneecap for the Nuggets, only having English as a primary scorer. I say the Bucks win in five, completing the gentleman's sweep.
7 Seed Bucks S4 advance
(2) Nuggets S2 vs (7) Bucks S4Winner:
Bucks S4Series: 4–3
Summary: A tight 7-game thriller. Nuggets took an early lead, but Bucks S4 clawed back to win three straight and seal the series in a dramatic Game 7.
(3) Nets S1 vs (6) Trailblazers S1
Ok, this is a rematch of the first seasons Finals! The Nets had Darryl Dawkins just running wild in this finals. The Blunt Force Trauma Trailblazers had no answers for the Nets, behind a young Bill Cartwright and a yellow current Greg Kessler to try to stop Dawkins, and the best +/- player on the team being Phil Hubbard who was a 6th round creation draft pick that never really showed up on the radar after getting a deal from DC the following offseason. Dawkins was the player of the game in all but one of the wins of this sweep. Two of these games were 20+ point blowouts too. So I am not going to really spend much time here talking about this series and am not going to overthink who wins this one. Nets win like they did the first time.
3 seed Nets S1 advance
(3) Nets S1 vs (6) Trailblazers S1Winner:
Nets S1Series: 4–2
Summary: The Nets bounced back from early losses and rode elite playoff performances to take down the Blazers in 6 games.
(4) Bucks S2 vs (5) Bucks S3
We got ourselves a Buck-off here! The S2 Bucks against the S3 Bucks. Quail V Quail. Laimbeer V Lister (Alton not Sonny). Man I did not realize Quail had this much success in NPBSL. Dude is just churning out teams that win. It will be interesting to see once the cap comes into play if he will become more Quail like and tank hard at times to reset his books and builds. The Season 3 Bucks seems pretty similar to the team above from the perspective of they had Lister and McHale as their core players and tried to compliment those two. They are a year younger here and not as developed. This is compared to the S2 bucks that had Laimbeer and Parish on their teams. This was a team I remember thinking was going to be a problem for everyone for a few years. I think that this team, compared to the later Bucks teams, relied heavily on their star players to do all the work. Where S3 Bucks had several players that could impact the game. I think that Parish will still eat, like English did in his matchup, I think that the S3 Bucks win this one in six to seven.
5 Seed Bucks S3 advance
Bucks S2 def. Bucks S3, 4–2Player of the Series: Kevin McHale
Statline: 35.5 PPG
Why They Won: Offensive firepower and veteran leadership overwhelmed S3 in key games.
AB generated round two:
1 Seed Kings S3 V 5 Seed Bucks S3
3 seed Nets S1 V 7 Seed Bucks S4
AI generated round two:
7 seed Bucks S4 V 8 seed Trailblazers S4
3 seed Nets S1 V 4 seed Bucks S2
Looking at this and seeing just one team that we agreed on advancing is interesting. I also didn't think this article all the way through now that we have different results. I am going to do the rounds by my results and then by the AI's results to keep it clean.
AB Semifinal Matchups:
1 Seed Kings S3 V 5 Seed Bucks S3
This is another series where it was an actual matchup between the teams from that season. I am not going to over think this one either and were going to have the Kings advance to the finals.
Kings S3 advance.
3 seed Nets S1 V 7 Seed Bucks S4
This is an interesting matchup. I really liked the Nets team from this season, and think that Dawkins is an outstanding player. However, this was the first season and teams were limited in team building because of the draft, which I think allowed for teams with the better top end players, who drafted for the immediate, really flourished. Think of teams like the Nets, Dallas, Boston, and Denver to name a few. Meanwhile teams like Golden State were still building, and upset that their main guy went from purple to blue randomly.
I started to say how the Bucks differed from this because of time, but after thinking about it this is probably the only other season where it will be similar for some time. Yeah FAs had come and gone, but there were several teams tanking for the MJ draft at this point and it really created a haves and have nots for this season, especially in the East where teams were straight dog shit. That being said, I think the Bucks really built a strong team here with their core and are looking at a potential dynasty type build. They should be higher than a 7 seed, but that's just the way it worked out and it benefits them here. The Nets will give this Bucks team fits in spurts, but I think Quail matches up better against the Nets than he did against the Nuggets. Bucks in five. 7 Seed Bucks S4
AI Semifinals Results:
(8) Trailblazers S4 def. (7) Bucks S4, 4–3Series Summary: An absolute slugfest. Bucks S4 opened strong, but Trailblazers S4 dug deep to win Game 7 in a nail-biter.
Game 7 Outcome: Trailblazers S4 edge out the win in the final minutes to punch their ticket to the finals.
(4) Bucks S2 def. (3) Nets S1, 4–3Series Summary: A heavyweight battle. Nets S1 fought valiantly, but Bucks S2's veteran squad held on in a thrilling Game 7.
AB Generated Finals:
1 Seed Kings S3 V 7 Seed Bucks S4
AI Generated Finals:
Trailblazers S4 (8 seed) vs Bucks S2 (4 seed)
AB Finals:
1 Seed Kings S3 V 7 Seed Bucks S4
This was the matchup of what I would now after seeing the finals would be the 1 seed versus the 2 seed. It is the best version of the Bucks that Quail has built, in my opinion, against one of the most dominant teams to play so far in this young games history. In fact, both teams can make claim to being the most dominant team in NPBSL history. Both teams have a solid core that had great cohesion and had several players that played their roles very well. Here are some key stat comparisons between the two teams:
Stats
Kings
Bucks
Points 122.2
121.2
O.Rebounds 14.1
13.8
D.Rebounds 34.4
35.5
Rebounds 48.5
49.2
Assists 27.1
27.2
Steals 7.2
7.4
Blocks 7.1
9.5
Turnovers 19.8
17.6
Fouls 24.4
23.0
FG% 0.51
0.505
FT% 0.747
0.786
3PT% 0.122
0.239
Points Per Shot 1.36
1.34
Adjusted FG% 0.51
0.509
So while the teams are pretty evenly matched from a regular season perspective, the Bucks do hold a slight advantage in Blocks, FT%, and Turnovers. Which the last two in the finals are pretty crucial advantages to have. The Bucks also allowed only 105 ppg compared to the Kings 114. While the stats lead me to think that the Bucks should win this series, after all they did win the finals 4-0. However, I am also not going to forget what I said before about playing in a weaker conference during the regular season. The Bucks also lost to the Kings in the finals, where it was a tight matchup. All this taken into account, I came into this experiment thinking the Kings would win it all without any problems. I think they get bucked here though... Where the Bucks will wind up winning the pivotal game seven that they lost the previous season to the Kings. So congrats Quail your a double champ! I think that McHale would win MVP of this series as well as he has really been a great player all this season and would carry over into this as well. S4 Bucks defeat the S3 Kings in seven games.
AI generated Finals:
Trailblazers S4 vs Bucks S2
Winner: Bucks S2
Series: 4–3 (another epic Game 7)Well look at that Quail, you're a triple champ!
Let me know what you think in the comments below about the results. Did you like my results better than the AI's or the reverse? Were both trash opinions? Who would you think win it all?
