S89 Town Hall 9

[Mike Lowry]

May blow your mind that I'm asking this question this early, but the standings seem to be close to locked in for the season.
How many teams do you expect to move from their current spot?
Who will rise?
Who will fall?
What do you think about the tiers of competition that we're looking at this season?

Rules: 1 point if you give thoughtful answers, which I will award after the timer ends for responses. The timer ends for responses at the moment the corresponding week's Sim is run.

Note: Use approximately 5 sentences as your bare minimum for 1 point. If you write 3 long, complex sentences, you'll still get a point. If you write 5, 3 word sentences, you will not get a point. Don't @ me.

Due: Deadline for Sim 9

[WigNosy]

May blow your mind that I'm asking this question this early, but the standings seem to be close to locked in for the season.
How many teams do you expect to move from their current spot?
Who will rise?
Who will fall?
What do you think about the tiers of competition that we're looking at this season?

As I tend to do in my own head until the last couple of sims of the season, I'm going to focus on "Point Differential" rather than "Win Totals" and I'm also going to ask, "are there any structural changes that the Point Differential can't capture?"

So I'm going to start with the Tiers of competition.

Tier 1: Title Favorites: Spurs, Celtics - For all the talk about the Spurs, the Celtics have quietly built a big bad juggernaut in the East to oppose them. Barring injury, this is your Finals matchup.

Tier 2: Contenders: Bucks, Nets, Timberwolves, Trailblazers, Supersonics - I put the Bucks here despite their double-digit point differential because (1) there is a bigger bap between the Bucks and Celtics than the Bucks and Nets and (2) the Bucks have undergone a structural change that Point Differential doesn't capture by swapping out 40% of their starting lineup at the deadline. Only 7 games, with 6 at home, isn't a large enough sample size for me to evaluate whether they stepped up a tier yet.

Tier 3: Solid but not Contenders: Bulls, Pistons, Rockets, Suns, Kings - The Kings might have been in the "Structural Changes" group but another injury to McHale means we're going to see about what we've seen most of this season (when McHale was also hurt). It sucks, but that's where we are this year, and they're in significant danger of missing the playoffs when a healthy McHale might lead to some upsets.

Tier 4: A move away from the playoffs: Cavs, Nuggets, Pacers, Lakers - The Pacers are in "Structural Changes" for me so they could rise or fall, it's too early to tell after the Kersey trade.

Tier 5: Should be tanking - Mavs, Hornets, Hawks - I think all three of these teams have the talent to quickly pivot in the offseason but we have 2/3 of a season's worth of results and the current mix of players clearly hasn't worked.

Tier 6: Tanking - Jazz, 76ers, Bullets, Knicks, Warriors. At least three teams on this list are not only bad, but actively want to be bad. They're not inclined to turn it around this year and maybe not next year either.

Who could rise above their current state? The Kings - but only as a playoff spoiler if they can hang on, make the playoffs, and get McHale back.
Teams that could rise or fall: Bucks, Pacers - I need to see how the chemistry shakes out post-Kersey trade. I can see things going either way for both teams.

What do I think about the tiers of competition? Every league has to have Tiers 2, 3, 4, and 5 - you will have good teams, slightly above average teams, slightly below average teams, and bad teams. I think the problematic Tiers are the outliers - 1 and 6... it's not good for the league to have the title be more or less a foregone conclusion all season and it's not healthy that teams have to actively try to be bad in order to get good draft position - you should be able to have a "natural" bad year where you thought you could be good (or have a season marred by injury) and get a top player rather than actively work at being bad, IMO... because it's teams actively trying to be bad that build the super-teams by selling off parts for pennies on the dollar. Sell-offs exaggerate the gaps between the "haves" and the "have nots" and reinforce the class system rather than making it possible to move up a couple of tiers with a deft off-season.

[K-100]

How many teams do you expect to move from their current spot?
2

Who will rise?
Chicago Bulls

Who will fall?
Detroit Pistons

What do you think about the tiers of competition that we're looking at this season?
This season has been pretty boring to be honest. Everyone is just waiting for the Spurs to win. The Celtics are probably going to finally knock off the Bucks to win the East and it should be an interesting matchup. So we have three teams in the contender status. We have a couple of dark horses with the Nets, Blazers, and Sonics. And then everybody else in various tiers. I think the tank for Gary Payton is actually more compelling than the Spurs quest for a title but who knows, maybe a freak injury will spice things up in the title chase?

[logpmess]

May blow your mind that I'm asking this question this early, but the standings seem to be close to locked in for the season.
How many teams do you expect to move from their current spot?
Who will rise?
Who will fall?
What do you think about the tiers of competition that we're looking at this season?

Rules: 1 point if you give thoughtful answers, which I will award after the timer ends for responses. The timer ends for responses at the moment the corresponding week's Sim is run.

Note: Use approximately 5 sentences as your bare minimum for 1 point. If you write 3 long, complex sentences, you'll still get a point. If you write 5, 3 word sentences, you will not get a point. Don't @ me.

Due: Deadline for Sim 9

The Bulls are going to rise (I hope). I think we are in different tiers of races.

Top of the Atlantic: Nets vs Celtics
Top of the Pacific: Trailblazers vs Sonics with a push from the Wolves
Eastern standings: Bulls vs Pistons vs Cavs
Playoff spot in West: Kings vs Rockets vs Suns with a potential participation from the Wolves

These are the real interesting races that we have to look forward to. I think the Celtics will hold on for the top spot slotting the Nets at the third seed.

The Sonics will hold on to their division, but that makes the Blazers firmly into the playoffs.

The Cavs seem significantly worse on the road than the Pistons and Bulls, so I'll drop them to last. For the Bulls vs the Pistons, each team has two home games left in this series. A half game back for the Bulls is going to be the difference for me, and I think that the Pistons is going to win this race.

I think with the Suns talent and the injury to McChale, the last race is going to hold chalk.

Not a lot of interesting things happening if my predictions hold true, but I think at this point of the season, we won't see much movement unless injuries come into play.

[BigDaddyd8720]

May blow your mind that I'm asking this question this early, but the standings seem to be close to locked in for the season.
How many teams do you expect to move from their current spot?
Who will rise?
Who will fall?
What do you think about the tiers of competition that we're looking at this season?

Rules: 1 point if you give thoughtful answers, which I will award after the timer ends for responses. The timer ends for responses at the moment the corresponding week's Sim is run.

Note: Use approximately 5 sentences as your bare minimum for 1 point. If you write 3 long, complex sentences, you'll still get a point. If you write 5, 3 word sentences, you will not get a point. Don't @ me.

Due: Deadline for Sim 9

Barring any injuries, I don't see much movement in the East. The Bucks likely keep hold of the Central, I don't think the Celtics just fall apart naturally, the Nets are firmly ahead of everyone else. The Pistons are playing basketball right now and could hold off the Bulls, while I don't see the Cavs catching up to the Bulls. I wouldn't be surprised if the standings in the East stay this exact same way for the rest of the season, again, barring injuries.

The West is a different story. Outside of the Spurs virtually locked in as the 1 seed, we can see movement everywhere else. The Supersonics and Trailblazers are in a dogfight for the Pacific with the Timberwolves right behind them to takeover should they slip up. The McHale injury probably takes the Kings out of the playoffs but we know Chad is great at game planning. The Rockets and Suns are in a bit of a slump, both are .500 or worse in their last 10 games. But the Suns have steadily been falling in the standings after they got off to a great start. I could see the Rockets jumping the Suns for the 5 seed. But that could likely mean the Kings don't make the playoffs since they have a harder path of jumping the Suns than they do the Rockets