viewtopic.php?f=7&t=12337, Countdown To Y2K: A Sim League Retrospective: viewtopic.php?f=7&t=257), but most of the time I'm creatively recapping/analyzing current league events (like my Midseason Mumblings or Season Preview Sentences; viewtopic.php?f=7&t=11990, viewtopic.php?f=7&t=11752). This time, I've decided to take a moment to talk about a period that's become a bit rote and mundane over the last few seasons, RFA. While yeah, it often isn't the most exciting period, there's really a lot to dig into if you pay attention. This period can have just as much, if not more, impact on the trajectory of a season, or a team's future, than other, more-hyped elements of the offseason (and heck, even Day 60 and the Trade Deadline). So, let's take a look.
ACTION: Pistons Re-sign SF Jeff Van Gundy for $140,000,000 over 4 years.
REACTION: A rare reasonable RFA contract, this is the best-case scenario for Quail. JVG is talented (if a bit one-dimensional), but unproven. As such, committing to 4 (or 5) years of him at full-price would be a tall ask. But with this deal, Quail's free to do whatever he wants with him moving forward. He can continue bringing him along slowly, or give him the green light to show off his offensive skills. Either way, his team-friendly deal will make him far easier to move if need be.
ACTION: Celtics Re-sign SF Mikal Bridges for $329,800,990 over 5 years.
REACTION: No-brainer here, you don't make a big trade for a RFA guy the season before and not look to keep him. There's a lot resting on Bridges' shoulders though. Right now (assuming Blakeney returns), he's the Celtics' third best player, maybe even 4th (if Romero returns). No matter how you add it up, max money for a guy who's not even your secondary option isn't great math. If AB retains everyone in UFA, a trade for more depth/cap relief is inevitable, and Bridges has to justify his contract immediately to avoid being the one on the trade block.
ACTION: Bucks Re-sign C Victor Wembanyama for $329,800,990 over 5 years.
REACTION: Another foregone conclusion. The only bad thing about Wemby is that he's about to hit his prime, meaning that whatever plans Tua has for the Bucks need to go in effect fast. When you're giving a fresh max to a 26-year-old, you have a very short window to get things done. You basically have to have your goals set as soon as possible so you can see if the player fits them. You're already locked into that player for one season thanks to the RFA no-trade clause, so even the decision to move on (if necessary) needs to be made quickly to ensure maximum return in a trade, as the player in question will be 27-28 before being eligible to move. The closer a non-elite player gets to 30, the less likely it becomes that you won't have to compromise in a trade.
ACTION: Spurs Re-sign SG Brandon Ingram for $329,800,990 over 5 years.
REACTION: Okay now this is an interesting one. While what I said about Wemby still kinda applies to Ingram, not only is Ingram a year younger than Wemby, but the Spurs have far more cap to work with. However...Ingram really doesn't fit the timeline in San Antonio, especially now that Larry Williams has been swapped for Timmerman. Ingram is on the cusp of becoming an elite scorer (though I wonder if that purple potential's a mirage, his defense is mid at best), so the point generation factor is legit, but I dunno, I don't think that's enough to keep him as opposed to selling him off for a huge haul. It might have even been worth sitting back and forgoing the 5th year max in order to try and bleed another team dry in a sign-and-trade. It'll be interesting to see how Eazy plays things over the remainder of this offseason/next season. Those with older RFA talent heading into next offseason might want to get their contingency plans in order.
ACTION: Timberwolves Re-sign SF Xue Huo for $329,800,990 over 5 years.
REACTION: Funny how things work out. I just discussed the problem of older RFA talent with Wemby, explored another aspect of it with the potential problem of Ingram, and now I get to discuss a current example of the problem with Huo. First off, welcome back JNR! Second, this sadly isn't about Huo as a player, who is going to be an absolute killer in by year 2 of his new contract. This is about fellow b/p player Lenz Durrenberger, who is 26 and has one full year remaining on his contract. Now to be fair, the Wolves have a fair amount of cap space to play with, and Xue/Lenz are far closer in both age and current production level than say, Ingram/Kirkland. But you can see the issue clearly: Xue will start peaking right when Lenz will be 28 and demanding a full max. There's no guarantee that the Wolves will have enough in place to happily pay Lenz, knowing they'll have a complete roster that's able to compete. Ideally, you always want your cap space to coincide with your best (or key) player's timeline, with the aim of giving you the most flexibility possible to make moves as you see fit, not as the situation dictates. You want to create situations that prevent you from having to rely on your best player to carry you. Xue is clearly the Wolves' key player (and he might take over the mantle of "best player" from Lenz this season), but as of now, the team around him isn't quite tailored to him. Again, there's no cause for complete alarm - at the end of the day, the Wolves are still likely to have two current purple players on the same roster at some point - but the question of what kind of roster they'll have to carry to contention still remains.
ACTION: Pistons Sign SG Jaden Akins for $190,542,988 over 4 years. (Incumbent team: Suns)
REACTION: While I'm not surprised that Quail took a shot at snatching another young talent, I'm stunned that Akins did not get a full max. I have to assume that everyone assumed that he was an auto-match, because if rival GMs honestly looked at Akins and didn't think that he was on the same level as say, Mikal Bridges, or overlooked him because he didn't have a purple box somewhere by his name, then something is seriously wrong with talent evaluation these days.
ACTION: Celtics Sign C Kel'el Ware for $246,633,784 over 4 years. (Incumbent team: Bucks)
REACTION: When you're on the verge of being capped out like the Celtics, you really have nothing to lose by throwing out whatever contract you can in order to get some kind of extra talent on your roster. Tua should make a note of this and file it away for future reference. I'm not sure why AB chose to go after Ware though, for reasons I'll discuss later.
ACTION: Pistons Sign PF Darrell Hackney for $190,542,988 over 4 years. (Incumbent team: Trailblazers)
REACTION: Oho, now things are getting interesting. This is notable not because Hackney's a promising big man, but because he's 25. Yep, we're going back to the "timeline" discussion. See, it's a little different when you're the team going after the almost/already finished player, and not the team trying to keep him. When you're a team like the Pistons, who have been relentless with their intent to rebuild and accumulate assets, going after a player in the 25-27 range signals an intent to progress, to move on to the next stage, to go from trying to build a foundation to building a contender. In other words, if you're damn near capped out and have a good-great 25-27 year old kinda just sitting there on your squad, and you see GMan trade one of his young players for a win-now talent when he still has, like, 3 great prospects under 23? Then dump whatever plans you have and call him immediately, because this is your chance to pivot from mediocrity and start fresh. Quail going after Hackney means that he's ready to start winning again, and is now open to making moves that will help him do so.
ACTION: Wizards Sign SG Remy Martin for $246,633,784 over 4 years. (Incumbent team: Pistons)
REACTION: So now I'm going to take a short break from yammering about "timelines", "age ranges" and all that to discuss something else that's important to consider: Contract amounts, length, and how you use them. Here, take a look at my roster (Ignore Remy):
http://pbsl.ijbl.net/rosters/roster33.htm
Notice anything? Well, other than the fact that it looks mediocre. What I hope you saw is that I have oodles of cap space, some of which I used to have a go at Remy. But, unlike most other teams with cap space, I don't have any cap holds or must-resign players that I have to deal with. Also take note that my best players (Millsap, Medendez, and Dunkle) are all 27-28 and are on unusually cheap deals, which contributes to the aforementioned "oodles of cap space", and makes gearing up for one final run before they age out (told you it was a short break from the timeline thing) not just possible, but easy.
This was by design, and it was mostly done through RFA. It's easy to look at Medendez, Millsap, and Dunkle's deals and assume I got them cheap because they were bums back then, but not really:
This is Medendez a year before his final rookie contract season (something's screwy with the file for the season where he was an upcoming RFA):
http://pbsl.ijbl.net/2047/players/player206.htm
This is Dunkle's final rookie contract season:
http://pbsl.ijbl.net/2047/players/player166.htm
This is Millsap's:
http://pbsl.ijbl.net/2049/players/player326.htm
None of them were a far cry from what they are now. While you can excuse Medendez and Dunkle and say I ultimately paid a fair price for their production, if you're looking at Millsap specifically and wondering how tf I pulled that off...well, I just looked at the RFA field, took note of who had cap and who didn't, and made an offer that suited me and fit my goals. See, I was willing to pay more for all three of those guys (how much more? You'll never know
), but instead of just giving them what I valued them at or what I thought their market value could be, I just let the market make that decision for me. I'm the incumbent team, I can match anything, so who cares if I don't get the contract I want, I can still keep the player if I feel the price is right. I hold the leverage, so why not use it? "But what if the player doesn't sign? You easily could've had them decline and lost them via UFA." Well, thanks to this gem of a thread, posted every season:
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=12393
...I knew what they were asking for and could base my offers around that. Also, if you go back and look at my rosters, you'll notice that a lot of my players have contracts of similar lengths, or have player options that give me the option to make them all expire at the same time. Thanks to that, I can manipulate situations and plan for/play around with creating favorable cap situations that make sure I don't go over the tax unless it's with a team I really like (or liked before reality set in).
Now I'm not saying that this is a surefire strategy. What I am saying is that this is just one way you can use RFA to your advantage, as opposed to just maxing or near-maxing your guy just because. There's no shame in matching an offer not your own, nor seeking a trade if the price given really isn't what you want to pay. RFA isn't a mindless game of max-and-match, but neither is it a high-stakes game of chicken. Do your research, make an informed offer, accept and deal with the results.
Oh, and I went after Remy because it gives me another young talent to move onto when the Millsap/Medendez/Dunkle thing plays out (always do your best to have your future piece in play before your current piece is through). I thought it was better to spend money trying to set up my team for the future first.
ACTION: Raptors Sign PG Quincy Johnson for $212,452,826 over 4 years. (Incumbent team: Bulls)
REACTION: Speaking of "I will trade you if you don't fit my plans," here's an interesting one. Normally I'd wonder why Penny would even bother going after Quincy when it's fairly obvious GMan values him, even moreso now that the plan is to build around Ayo. But, Penny probably remembers the Sims/Svi trade last season and figured "why not?" It's a good fit. Since I can't shut up about players' ages matching up, even though Quincy is 25, Looney's 24, and the recently-acquired Saul King and Jeffrey Troutman are 24 and 23 respectively. That leaves 22-year-old future key piece Okay Djamgouz as a ringer. If he's ready to seriously contribute once Quincy/Looney are 27-28, great, but if he's not, then there's no need to blow everything up. Given that Penny has a few other pieces that I can see GMan getting some use out of, yeah I can definitely see a trade going down here. Penny needs to check his inbox though.
ACTION: Suns match Akins
REACTION: I mean duh, that contract's a steal. While I'm fairly certain that this wasn't quite a case of "letting the market decide" playing out favorably, let this stand as a shining example that not every good player is going to get max offers, regardless of whether or not they're viewed as a max-worthy player. Thus, there's room to operate when it comes to making RFA offers, full maxes should really only be for guys you either already have and love, or don't have and would really, really like to. If you're the incumbent team? Just offer what you'd like to pay (and what they'll accept) and go from there.
It's business as usual for the Suns. They're rebuilding, they resigned Akins, they're going to keep rebuilding. Same for the Pistons, they took a shot at a high-level young guy, it didn't pan out, oh well, back to their regularly scheduled programming. Getting Akins would've sped up a rebuild, but it probably wouldn't have ended it outright. The Hackney offer sheet is far more interesting when it comes to determining what Quail's focus will be moving forward.
ACTION: Bucks match Ware
REACTION: Also a big "duh." So getting back to why I'm not sure why AB even bothered, he should've known this was damn near an auto-match. He's literally in the exact same spot as Tua, forced to hang on to a player for little other reason than the fact that there's absolutely nothing else of note on the roster. Losing Ware would be as big a disaster for the Bucks as losing Bridges would've been for the Celtics. But, unlike the Celtics and Bridges, even sign-and-trading Ware wouldn't exactly be a great move, y'know, given that they traded freaking Saddiq Bey for him (a rare example of a blockbuster trade that didn't really change the trajectories of either team). So yeah, great job swinging for the fences AB, keep that same energy in UFA my friend, but maybe don't hit the ball towards Mr. Mertle's fence next time. Unlike the movie, you probably wouldn't be getting that ball back.
As for the Bucks, so take what I said about Wemby eating up cap space and the problems his age creates earlier and mix it up real good with the "player timeline" stuff I've been harping about all throughout this thing. It's...not a tasty blend. It's expensive, the flavors don't quite match, and it takes a while for the aftertaste to fade. Kory Manley needs to be gone as soon as the RFA moratorium ends, no ifs, ands, or buts. Otherwise this will be another dead-in-the-water, middling season for the Bucks, and let me stress again, Wemby is 26, you should not be okay with that. It's certainly possible that the cap space opened up next season by Manley's expiring contract can be used to build a contender around Wemby, but by then it'll make just a little more sense to ship off Wemby and refocus around Ware. If Tua is serious about wanting Wemby to stay in Milwaukee during his prime, it's now-or-never in terms of turning the team's future trajectory towards his.
ACTION: Bulls Sign & Trade Quincy Johnson to Toronto for Okay Djamgouz
REACTION: Well damn...can't say I saw this coming. While I thought there was ample opportunity for a trade to go down here, I never considered that GMan would see this as an opportunity to get even younger. So yeah, what I said earlier about keeping an eye on GMan whenever he makes a move? Start talking to him now, because I guarantee it's off to the races next offseason at the latest. If he's building around Ayo, these young guys he picked up will be past tense soon.
For the Raptors, I love this. Losing Okay stings a bit, but as I said, he was a ringer. His progression wouldn't have been a vital component to the Raptors' success were they to get Quincy, so trading him for Quincy instead works. Penny already has the framework in place to where making a move for a guy like Quincy makes sense, so actually having secured him puts the Raptors in early contention for playoff talks. There's still work to be done (Honeycutt should probably be swapped for a big), but Penny has rebounded from the Evan Mobley era quite nicely.
Now Penny needs to remember to post "accept."
ACTION: Penny posted accept
REACTION: Good, all is well. Penny is learning.
ACTION: Blazers match Hackney
REACTION: I'm not really surprised by this, as GroveStreet took a hard turn towards contending by picking up Folse, Garland & Williams. Hackney not only fills a need in the post, but at 25, he serves as the bridge between the older newcomers and the younger guys like Blaze and Quick. A no-brainer match here.
For the Pistons, again a chance was taken, and again, it didn't pay off. However, the signal that the Pistons are now open to compete has now been lit, and that alone has value. The Pistons have a lot of pieces that could draw trade interest from other GMs looking to shift gears.
ACTION: Pistons trade Remy Martin to the Wizards for Vaughn Millsap
REACTION: Well, there we go. The Pistons are officially looking to move forward with win-now talent if they can get it. It'll be interesting to see who else gets traded, either in the lead up to Free Agency or afterwards. Speaking of Free Agency, who does Quail target? And given that playing Remy has led to the acquisition of a 2-time All-Star and 1-time All-Defensive player, will McClung and Kessler continue to sit, or will they see playing time to evaluate their on-court play and maybe even draw trade interest? There will definitely be interesting times ahead in Detroit.
Ditto for the Wizards, who, after setting up all that cap space to pick up talent around the core of Millsap/Medendez/Dunkle...trades the centerpiece of that core for a young player who's already proven himself despite still being a work in progress. I have to be honest, I'm not quite sure what I'm doing going forward. I tend to see a particular build through to it's logical conclusion, rarely bailing out early, yet this time I definitely cut the chapter short. I came into RFA with the intention of adding to the core, not reshaping it. However, I ultimately decided that the entire reason you open up cap space is to try and secure an impact player, and I felt like Remy was an impact player, if not now, then in the future. Time will tell if that prediction was correct.
*Fin*
