The Lazy Statistician Goes Insane Looking At Draft Position Coin Flips

[garbageman]

In a vacuum, a coin flip seems like a perfectly fair way to make a decision between two things with 50% odds of either outcome. It's how the kickoff is decided in the NFL. A Batman villain bases all of his decisions on the fate of a coin. And it's how ties are broken in the PBSL draft when two teams have identical records.

However, when random chance feels like it's somehow stacked against you, you end up turning into a Batman villain...not a coin flipping one, but the kind that doesn't trust coins. One more powerful than two-face. One who flips a coin and then does what he wants anyway. One called...One-Face. The important part about a villain is his or her backstory. We know that Two-Face got half his face <expletive deleted> up when Batman chose to save him instead of Maggie Gyllenhaal, but this...this is the story of One-Face.

2011 - Fresh in the league, GM garbageman is just happy to be here. After being in the league for less than a season, he trades his pick to Chad in a move that his mentor definitely should have advised him against. Ah well, it's a learning experience, and random chance can't harm me.

2012 - The Bulls finish with the same record as the Dallas Mavericks (whose pick is owned by the New York Knicks). Everything is coming up garbage house!

TOTAL: 1/1 in tie breakers.

2014 - 2013 went by with the Bulls finishing in a position with no tie, but one year later, the Bulls find themselves in another 2 way tie with the Los Angeles Clippers. They lose that coin flip, but that's ok. Even Steven.

TOTAL: 1/2 in tie breakers.

2016 - 2015 was another year that the Bulls traded away their pick, but they had their own pick and the Hawks pick. Neither was supposed to be great. The Hawks had the same record as the Knicks that year, and the Bulls had the same record as both the Suns and the Kings. They were the last pick in both of those situations. For the purposes of lazy statisticianry, I'm going to consider finishing 2nd in a 3 way tie as winning a coin flip and just count these as two equally weighted coin flips. Really, this makes my situation look slightly better than it should if I was doing things properly, but by the time I turn into One-Face, you'll see it won't even matter. In any case:

TOTAL: 1/4 in tie breakers.

2017 - Another year, and another year of tying. This time, it's with the Timberwolves, the Suns, and the Clippers. In another lazy move, I'm going to count this as 2 tie breakers. First place team goes 2/2, 2nd place and 3rd place both go 1/2, and 4th place goes 0/2. Again, this is statistically lazy, but you probably don't have to guess where this ends up. Of special note, the order that the draft picks end up going is the REVERSE order of the numerical roster IDs. The Suns get the best pick (roster27), the Warriors (with Minnesota's--roster 21--pick) get the 2nd best pick, the Clippers (roster 16) get the 3rd best pick, and the Bulls (roster8) get, you guessed it, the worst pick of the four. Though I didn't see it then, we'll have more on this theory later that reverse roster number order seems to be something that comes up again, though I can't prove anything in 100% of all cases due to a couple cases that go against this trend and no knowledge of whether there was any difference in the way these coin flips were dealt with by whoever was in charge at the time. In any case:

TOTAL: 1/6 in tie breakers

2018 - This year was another three way tie between the Lakers, the Bulls, and the Warriors. This is the best luck I had in Chicago as the Lakers got the 8th pick and Tray was asleep on draft day so the simputer gave him Hyman Low instead of the last blue potential PG in a draft full of them (in a year when I needed one), Dennis Smith, Jr. The Heat (roster 19, which is a mark against the 2017 reverse roster id order theory) fall to 11. Ending up with DSJ instead of once blue potential Don Houghton (oh hough the mighty have fallen) appeases me for a while, and I consider this a victory even if it's not statistically a victory. This is the last time I don't come in last in a coin flip. My record in coin flips now is less than 30%. There are many more to come.

TOTAL: 2/7 in tie breakers.

2020 - After a year with no tie, I'm back, locked up at 53-29 with the Trailblazers (roster 28). I could care less about a draft pick in the 20s. I'm competing this year because Wig has my pick next year. Losing this coin flip is the last thing on my mind. I lose the coin flip.

TOTAL: 2/8

2023 - It's been two years since I've had to deal with a coin flip, and I've got a ring in that time, so I'm still garbageman, and not starting to turn into One-Face yet. I end up with the same record as the Grizzlies (roster 18). They end up with the higher pick.

Total: 2/9


2024 - Even with a 47-35 record, I'm in the Lotto, and tied with the Pacers (roster 15) and the Raptors (roster 31) because the West is garbage. I end up with the last pick here, too. Aw shucks. Three way tie rules apply.

TOTAL: 2/10

2026 - After another year with no ties, I'm back in the lotto and tied with the Lakers and Warriors. Because the West is still a bag of sweaty, shriveled ballsacks, the Lakers make the playoffs and are not in the lotto. I call the coin flip loss to Andy like Babe Ruth pointing into the stands, and he tells me it's a self-fulfilling prophecy. Unfortunately, it's too late for that. Having been in the league for a while and having witnessed adult men acting like babies over a game too many times, this coin flip fiasco has garbageman starting to flip out into One-Face.

TOTAL: 2/11

2027 - "Oh, good," said One-Face. "A five way tie...I wonder how that's going to go." He didn't even worry about the two way tie that pitted his having of the Nets pick (roster 7) against the Bucks pick (roster 20). Instead, he focused on the 5 way tie for picks 23-27 and knew he'd end up with the last one. Pick 23 went to the Jazz -- originally the Blazers' pick (roster 28). Pick 24 went to the Timberwolves. It was originally the 76ers' pick (roster 26). Pick 25 went to the 76ers -- originally the Magic's pick (roster 25). Pick 26 went to the Rockets (roster 14). And pick 27 to the Bulls (roster 8). It'd be <expletive deleted> if it weren't so <expletive deleted> believable. This is how villains are made. This is how One-Face was born. And now you all will feel the MF'in wrath. I'll count losing a 5 way draft in the same way as losing a 3 way draft and give myself just 2 lost coin flips for that. It should be much worse. Here's the total total.

TOTAL TOTAL: 2/14

2/14...1/7. Because the lowest roster number is roster 5 (Hawks), the Bulls have the 4th lowest roster ID out of 30 teams. That's about 1/7. And that's not even factoring in that I didn't do actual statistics, so I erred on the side of making it look a little better for me because even rosying this up a little paints a very bleak picture. I tried to prove this by looking at the Hawks (roster 5) history in coin flips. The only one I knew of off hand was when I had their pick and it lost. I spent like 10 minutes spot checking to see if they had any other ties. They had 1 in 2021. They also lost. Other than that it seems like Wig purposely never ties in drafts where he has his own pick because he knows it'll lose. I blew the cover off of this whole thing, and if there's no restitution, I'm going to burn this league to the ground, no matter what a dang coin tells me to do.

Yours truly,
One-Face

[Darth Vegito]

[NOLa.]

Hahahahahaha


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[IamQuailman]

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