First, let's look at the teams who should most likely have max money available. The below table was constructed using the current cap report and I have already taken out cap holds from available cap space available to be used for RFA purposes, and I am only showing teams with max contract space to offer for RFA. I tried accounting for the Bucks and Mavericks trade since the salary adjusted was so much that it shot the Bucks into "able to max" category. I did not, however, factor in the Bucks and Bobcats trade.
That's 15 teams that can offer max contracts, half the league that is able to make either a big splash or make sure teams pay their players fairly. What makes this interesting is the fact that several teams with one (and even two) restricted free agents in this class still show up on this list even with cap holds taken into consideration. The Minnesota Timberwolves, New York Knicks, Orlando Magic, and Oklahoma City Thunder can certainly make waves in restricted free agency without even offering their own players. The New York Knicks and Orlando Magic each have two players in this RFA class and still can offer a max contract to another player. How in the world did this come to be?
The Knicks recently made a trade with the Miami Heat to basically dump Rudy Gay's expiring contract, which was fortunate for the Knicks as GM Inner forgot to decline Gay's team option for this upcoming season. They also basically only have Chandler Parsons under contract currently at an expiring deal. With former #1 pick Jokic and rising SG Gary Harris, it will probably get very expensive real quick, but they have room to accept bigger contracts here. The Orlando Magic are kind of in the same boat, as they only have Thomas Robinson under contract currently on a very decent deal. The future isn't as certain in RFA like the Knicks for the Magic. Dario Saric and Marcus Smart aren't guaranteed maxes, but Saric definitely has a case to be one. His unique skill set has generated interest in some teams, and after the 76ers used Gordon Hayward from the 1-4 position, one has to wonder if Saric can be the same type of player. Pulling up the player pages, it's easy to see the comparisons.
Another interesting team with max money available are the reloaded Philadelphia 76ers. After acquiring Harrison Barnes from the resetting Sacramento Kings, and with hopefully another solid training camp from Chet Dooley, the only position not addressed is center. It seems the only acquirable RFA center is Joel Embiid, but there are some solid center options in the unrestricted free agency market as well, headlined by 28 year old All Star Greg Monroe. Will we see the 76ers get aggressive and swing for a player in RFA, or just attempt at making sure one team pays the fair max to their superstar like Wiggins or Parker? I believe they may have their eyes set on one of the UFA centers like Monroe, Hibbert, or Chandler.
We will also see what the Timberwolves do. Wiggins should be a supermax, but with max money available will they attempt to snag a guard like Gary Harris, Zach Lavine, or attempt a bargain deal like Marcus Smart or Elfrid Payton? With the Celtics selecting PG Tyler Ulis with the 3rd pick of the draft, there are whispers that Payton may not be back in the Irish green if the contract is friendly enough. The Wolves rolled with Ish Smith who had a career year before a season ending injury, but he's approaching 30 years old in July and his best days are behind him. A younger, cheaper option could be attractive.
Where is all of this money coming from? After taking a quick look at these teams mentioned, each have notable players that are unrestricted free agents. Knicks have Jeremy Lin, Orlando with Paul George and James Harden, Philadelphia needs to re-sign Gordon Hayward, and the Timberwolves have to decide how to build around Wiggins and Porter with the cap they have available now that Ish has fallen off the books.
A team to watch in RFA will be the Chicago Bulls as well. Stuck in between having Oladipo hitting his prime and having Desantis, Dennis Smith Jr. and Milburns as young undeveloped rookies, GM garbageman has a decision to make. In this writer's opinion, if the Bulls have a quiet RFA, Oladipo will not be wearing a Chicago Bulls jersey by the All Star Game. All eyes will be on the Windy City if they come up empty, and at a time where talent is being sold for what is normally considered less than fair value, it may not be an ideal sellers market.
The restricted free agency class is good, but I wouldn't call this class strong by any means. The big, notable guys like Jokic, Wiggins, and possibly Gary Harris and Jabari Parker seem like easy contracts to figure out, but what about guys like TJ Warren, Aaron Gordon and Joel Embiid? I mentioned Embiid before, and after a backbreaking training camp that took most of his potentials away, having a capable center is becoming less of a guarantee these days. It's hard to see the value of Embiid besides his one B in defensive rebounding, but he's not the worst option you can pick up this offseason. TJ Warren is an interesting and quiet prospect. He can score inside and out, an average-at-best defender, and boasts fair athleticism. While he's not a max player, he has comparable potentials, skills and athleticism to Harrison Barnes. Whether teams find that valuable or not is up to their build, but the Sacramento Kings were able to retain Barnes in RFA for a reasonably priced deal. Aaron Gordon is another player who hasn't gotten much buzz, but he has very similar potentials and skills as Joel Embiid who has gotten more attention due to name and draft position. What's interesting is that Gordon only has one skill with a potential rating lower than a C, and that's in Steals. Other than that, he is a jack of all trades guy.
We're only a couple days away from when bids are due, but there's plenty of salary being cleared up before the moratorium. We may see another team or two attempt to clear space before, but for now, it seems big money is about to be spent.
