30. (↓1) Boston Celtics (12-59) - I think everyone except me and GM Roy knew this was the direction the Celtics would eventually go. Sometimes those closest to the situation are the last to find out. They traded 2 of their top 3 players for future picks and assets. I don't hate the haul they received but it felt rushed. And here's the thing these new rookies take time to develop so the Celtics need great TC luck AND they will probably be sitting at the bottom for a while.
29. (↑1) Charlotte Bobcats (14-58) - The recipient of the major John Wall trade, they are 6-17 (26% win%) with Wall in the Lineup which means they were 8-41 (17% win%) before the trade. A nice bump and without their own pick. Much to Bostons chagrin they are very close to climbing to that 3rd spot in the lottery behind the Trailblazers.
28. (↓3) Portland Trailblazers (18-54) - I have a feeling if these power rankings were done after 1 more sim Portland and Charlotte would swap places. The Blazers are 1-9 in their last 10 and still games left @Bulls, vs Hawks, vs Warriors, and @Rockets. CJ McCollum, who lived on the trade block since he arrived in Portland, blocked out all the noise and performed well resulting in Portland turning down all trade offers and preparing to head into RFA willing to match any contract thrown his way.
27. (↑1) Miami Heat (23-48)
26. (↑1) Orlando Magic (23-48)
25. (↑1) LA Lakers (24-48)
This section should just be named the Magic's future section. Orlando owns both Miami's and LA's picks and each team moved up exactly 1 spot in the power rankings only because the Trailblazers hit the reset button. Miami has lost 7 in a row and are 1-9 in their last 10, LA and Orlando are both 4-6 in their last 10. Here is a live shot of false9 after every sim and he checks LA's and Miami's records:
24. (↔) Dallas Mavericks (25-46) - Staying stagnant in the rankings they are on a 2 game win streak and are 4-6 in their last 10. They are really going to need to hit on their draft pick to pair up someone with Bradley Beal. Who knows though maybe 2nd round picks actually will become valuable once and for all and if that comes true FTB will be ready with 7 2nd rounders over the next 3 drafts. But if not this team could be headed for an extended stay in No Mans Land.
23. (↔) Washington Wizards (26-46)- In the same spot they were 33 games ago, the Wizards are essentially on the bad side of mediocre. The Twin Towers are barely averaging double digit rebounds combined (10.1) and they just declined their player option on their lone star player Wilson Chandler. But if you want optimism Brandon Knight has turned into a volume scorer going from 6.3 ppg last year to 17.2 ppg this year and an impressive 42% 3 point %.
22. (↓1) Philadelphia 76ers (29-43)
21. (↓2) Cleveland Cavaliers (32-39)
20. (↔) Sacramento Kings (33-38)
Both the 76ers and Kings made trades right before the power rankings last Birdmester. Neither have appeared to have a significant impact, at the last rankings both teams had about a 43% win% the Sixers went down a little to ~40% and the Kings went up a little to ~46%. Both teams are still benching their high draft picks, a strategy I neither fully understand nor endorse. But with the PBSL turning from checkers into chess, I'm betting it's the right move. The Cavs drop a couple spots but nothing really significant to see here, CP3 is literally carrying this team just on the brink of a playoff berth. They need to find some vets and give him one last run next year, or find a PG desperate team willing to give up at least something for the 31 year old floor general.
19. (↓2) Toronto Raptors (33-39) - Not a lot of movement here (or really at all in these rankings yet) they dropped two spots, but are 6 games below .500 and clinging to the final playoff spot in the East. At the last rankings they were 4 games below .500 and fighting for the 8th seed in the East. This team has a solid "core four" of Whiteside, Turner, Mayo, and Curry but not enough firepower to make any real noise.
18. (↓5) OKC Thunder (35-37)
17. (↓2) Utah Jazz (36-36)
16. (↓5) Denver Nuggets (36-34)
The biggest drop we've seen from the last rankings here both the Thunder and Nuggets drop 5 spots. These three teams are just on the outside looking in of the playoffs in the Western Conference. The Nuggets are 2.5 gb of the playoffs while the Jazz and Thunder are 3.5 gb and 4.5 gb respectively of the Rockets. A win streak here or a losing streak there by the Rockets and a team could jump in, but it won't be easy. The Thunder here are the real disappointment, the team is talented but can't put it together. They'll only have b/b players Vuvevic, Jabari Parker, and IT under contract next year and cap space they need to add a difference maker.
15. (↑3) New Jersey Nets (38-35) - One of the first big jumps. The Nets were 5 games below .500 in these last rankings and were hovering right around .500 when my beloved Celtics acquired their pick for Serge Ibaka. He seemed to reinvigorate the team and at one point they were 37-29 before dropping 6 out of their next 7 with 4 of those losses coming on the road. They have a pretty steady hold on the 7th seed in the East so barring an epic collapse (I swear no reverse jinx here) they'll be in the playoffs.
14. (↓2) Houston Rockets (40-33) - Dropping a few spots is nothing major although they only have a 2.5 game lead over the Nuggets for the final playoff spot in the west. I was surprised to see the Rockets have a top 10 margin in the 3 hustle categories of defense steals (8th), Blocks (6th), and Turnovers (4th). If they weren't dreadful from the 3 pt line, I'd say they could maybe do something in the playoffs because I like the talent on this team, but it will be hard.
13. (↑9) Vancouver Grizzlies (39-31) - The biggest jump in the entire rankings. The Grizzlies were 8 games below .500 33 games ago, and now they are 8 games above .500. They made some win-now trades, got healthy and are now looking to make a run when they get into the playoffs. They play great defense without fouling, they average the 3rd most assists in the league, and force the 3rd most turnovers. Much like the Rockets above them, they struggle at the 3point line. In fact they have the worst 3pt% in the league and compound that problem by shooting the worst % from the ft line as well. Spacing will be an issue but guys like Jimmy Butler, Kawhi, Aldridge, and Rondo they'll do everything they can to overcome it.
12. (↓7) Milwaukee Bucks (42-30) - Milwaukee hasn't fallen off as much as a 7 spot fall would suggest, it's just that other teams have improved. They were 2nd in their division and holding down the 4th seed in the last rankings and are now 4th in their division (albeit b/c of a tiebreaker) and have the 6th seed. They again are on a current skid as these rankings come out losing 3 in a row and 8 of their last 10. But they are only 1.5 games back from having home court advantage in the 1st round, something that would be considered a wild success given preseason expectations.
11. (↑5) Indiana Pacers (42-30) - The Pacers are playing well and Deron Williams is showing no signs of slowing down still averaging 28 ppg and 10.5 assists to boot, I'm not gonna say this is exact, because it's hard to say how many of those assists are to 3's but Deron is essentially scoring or assisting on half of the Pacers points per game. It looks like they are currently edging out the Bucks on a tiebreaker but are also playing better as of late winning 8 of their last 10.
10. (↓1) New Orleans Pelicans (43-30)
9. (↑1) Detroit Pistons (43-28)
8. (↔) LA Clippers (43-28)
These 3 teams were in these 3 spots last time, all three are heading down the stretch playing relatively well. The Pistons and Clippers continue to be more of a battle of who will win MVP AD or KD? While the Pelicans also have a superstar in Lebron but also a little more balance with Dame Lillard and Blake Griffin also averaging at least 20ppg. AD and KD have no such player on their roster. This probably isn't a wild prediction but I'd bet one of these three teams will be in the conference finals, there's just too much starpower here to be eliminated in the early rounds of the playoffs. AD's PER is currently in the freakin 40s
7. (↑7) Phoenix Suns (45-27)- I almost put them in the category above, but decided they deserved their own spot, showing such improvement. Obviously they have two more wins, but their point differential is almost a full 4 points higher than the teams in the group above. The Suns are 26-7 in their last 33 games Kevin Love is doing Kevin Love things, but they are getting production out of the old guys as well, Dudley is playing well, it's a miracle that Hunter and his 0 QKN gets up and down the court for every possession but once in position he's effective, and even Toney Douglas is an above average PG in the league right now.
6. (↓3) Chicago Bulls (46-26) - Maybe they should have dropped a few more spots, but how well they started the season made a strong impression on me. But now I gotta ask "Are we sure the Bulls are good?" They are just 14-19 in their last 33 games, only have a 2.1 point differential Carmelo missed a lot of time in December and January and it appears the Bulls haven't really recovered. This was one of my favorite teams in the preseason adn early season so I hope they can close out the season strong and head into the playoffs healhty.
5. (↑2) New York Knicks (47-24) - The Knicks have the advantage of playing in probably the 2nd to worst division in the league (whats up Southeast Division), but I'm still impressed by the balance of this team. They rank 3rd in scoring margin, 5th in rebounding margin, 5th in assist margin, 2nd in steal margin, 2nd in TO margin, and 1st in 3pt% margin. They aren't the flashiest team in the league, but they have 6 guys averaging double digit points per game and another 2 more that average at least 7ppg.
4. (↔) Minnesota Timberwolves (47-24)
3. (↑3) San Antonio Spurs (45-27)
I'm grouping these two together because they are interchangeable only being separated by a half a game. I narrowly give the Spurs the edge for a few reasons, they have a better point differential, a better conference record and play in a tougher division. Both are on current win streaks of at least 5 games and playing well down the stretch. I've always loved Russ but, am impressed with what Schroeder is doing by playing PG 40 minutes per game and putting up 20 ppg on 45% from the field and 40% from 3. Same goes for the Twolves we know what to expect from Bosh but I am really enjoying watching Wiggins and Otto Porter Jr grow up before our eyes. It will be interesting to see how they respond in the playoffs, they were swept last year in their first taste of the post season.
2. (↓1) Golden State Warriors (53-18) - The Warriors were ranked #1 in the first Birdmester, but are struggling as much as a team that will probably win 60 games can they've lost 2 in a row and ard just 6-4 in their last 10. All that being said they have the #1 seed in the West locked up, have the best defense in the league and are the best rebounding team in the league. It may be interesting once the playoffs start because the old adage used to be defense wins championships, but you do have to score to get there.
1. (↑1) Atlanta Hawks (59-11) - The Hawks are not strangers to being atop all sorts of rankings. They are in the top 10 of every margin category except offensive rebounding (23rd) and overall rebounding (11th). They are 9-1 in their last 10 and are absolutely rolling. The only concern here is Draymond Green is recovering from a concussion that will sideline him for the next 59 days. There's roughly 20 days left in the regular season so Draymond would miss by my estimation at least the first 2 playoff series.
