Celtics
Players - Under 25: 3; Current < Future: 1
1st Round Picks: All of their own
5 Year Forecast: ☁ ☂ ☂ ☁ ☁
The good news is they have all of their first round picks. The bad news is they have some work to do to get into rebuilding mode. Moving Hunter, Hughes, and Salmons for nice packages may be more difficult now that the prime landing spots have been taken by the great Sacramento fire sale of 2009. Roy will be able to find a home for Hunter but he may have to wait out Salmons and Hughes.
Nets
Players - Under 25: 3; Current < Future: 3
1st Round Picks: Their own 2011
5 Year Forecast: ☀ ☀ ☁ ☁ ☁
The future is now in Jersey. They are a championship contender this year and the biggest threat to maintaining that status is the tax man. Facing the 4 year repeater tax this year, I expect they will either go all in and then blow it up next year or find a way under this year and be able to retool around T-Mac, Jameer, and Kaman next year.
Heat
Players - Under 25: 7; Current < Future: 2
1st Round Picks: All of their own
5 Year Forecast: ☀ ☀ ☀ ☁ ☁
The Heat are young and they are good now too. This year will only be their second year over the cap and with their core wrapped up for the next three years and up and coming young guys like Hawes and Ibaka I see no reason why they can’t contend for the next three years or even further if they can make some well timed moves to get below the cap at some point in the next few years. The biggest variable here is the GM. He is shopping Hawes hard. If he trades Hawes in a win-now deal (why hello, Conroy) this forecast could turn cloudy sooner rather than later.
Knicks
Players - Under 25: 1; Current < Future: 1
1st Round Picks: Their own 2011 and 2012
5 Year Forecast: ☀ ☀ ☁ ☁ ☁
Another win-now team in the Atlantic. They should have a solid team this year but Garnett and Jackson are both on the decline and under contract next year so it will be tough to improve next season although they should still be pretty good. Carmelo and Varejao make a nice pairing to build around moving forward though. The question will be if the Knicks can consistently win or if they fall prey to the tax man or decide to rebuild.
Magic
Players - Under 25: 7; Current < Future: 4
1st Round Picks: All of their own and 2010 Clippers
5 Year Forecast: ☁ ☁ ☀ ☁ ☁
As constructed this team should be pretty good in a couple of year but pretty good may be the ceiling if they don’t make some moves to lengthen the rebuild. In their suddenly super competitive division they will be the punching bag for at least a couple years so they might as well push back the timeline. Moving Prince is the obvious priority but Coltsguy may have more luck and get a bigger haul if they move Deng, who is young but on a different timeline then their other prospects.
76ers
Players - Under 25: 1; Current < Future: 7
1st Round Picks: Their own 2010 and 2011 and Lakers 2011
5 Year Forecast: ☀ ☀ ☀ ☀ ☁
Things are obviously looking sunny in Philadelphia. With a coach that can make the most of role players the Sixers will be decent this year while staying under the cap as Balls gives his studs another year to develop. How sunny it gets will depend on Balls ability to work his magic to bring in quality players at 3 and 4.
Wizards
Players - Under 25: 1; Current < Future: 2
1st Round Picks: Their own 2011
5 Year Forecast: ☀ ☀ ☀ ☁ ☁
With Roy headed for RFA next offseason and the rest of the core already under contract for next year, I see no reason why Washington should not be a force to be reckoned with for the next two years. It looks like the Wiz should be under the cap this year and they could let Murphy go if Landry continues to develop but they’ll have to pay Roy next year. In short the Wizards should be set for the next few years.
Hawks
Players - Under 25: 4; Current < Future: 4
1st Round Picks: Their own 2011 and 2012
5 Year Forecast: ☀ ☀ ☁ ☁ ☁
The Hawks resisted going all in last season by trading Noah, which meant a round one exit but which has also allowed them to go all in this year while maintaining a nice group of prospects. With Gay headed for RFA and the Hawks only on their second year over the cap, the Hawks will probably be all –in for the next two years and then retool around Gay, Sessions (if he’s still around), and Noah.
Bulls
Players - Under 25: 7; Current < Future: 4
1st Round Picks: All their own
5 Year Forecast: ☁ ☁
☀ ☀Unfortunately the decline of Ginobli is going to taint the rise of Harden so this team probably won’t be good until his monster contract is off the books. The future should be bright with Harden, Milsap and whatever comes from Galinari and Young but the biggest priority is getting a GM and then that GM not totally crippling the team like the last one did.
Cavs
Players - Under 25: 6; Current < Future: 3
1st Round Picks: All their own
5 Year Forecast: ☀ ☀ ☀ ☀ ☁
This team is set for the foreseeable future with Chris Paul, Marc Gasol, and Randy Foye. Will with they have to fill some gaps after Okur, Pierce, Finley, and Butler expire this year? Yes, but with Gasol still on a rookie contract that shouldn’t be a problem. Obviously the tax man will become a problem eventually but this is their first year over so the forecast looks sunny.
Pistons
Players - Under 25: 4; Current < Future: 3
1st Round Picks: Their own 2010 and 2012 and the Bucks 2011
5 Year Forecast:
The Pistons are a confusing case. I actually decided to look up how to type a sunny cloud symbol just for them. They have a lot of money tied up with Howard, who seems bound for mediocrity. Aldridge still has sky high potential but his athleticism is starting to be a worry. How quickly will Rip decline? How fast will Teague develop? They should be good but they were supposed to be good last year. I just don’t know.
Pacers
Players - Under 25: 1; Current < Future: 1
1st Round Picks: All their own
5 Year Forecast: ☁ ☁ ☁ ☁ ☁
The Pacers look as they often have for years now. They are in compete now mode and have a super star in the ranks but do not have the rest of the roster necessary to compete. D-Will is young and great. The Joe Johnson deal isn’t terrible but they may struggle to fill in the gaps around them without any obvious solutions already in the roster.
Bucks
Players - Under 25: 1; Current < Future: 4
1st Round Picks: Their own 2010 and 2012
5 Year Forecast:
☂ ☂ ☁ ☁Does this forecast make any sense? No, but here’s what I’m thinking anyway. I think that Quail’s mini reboot ends up looking a little too cute and the Bucks flame out this year so Quail opts to sign and trade Amare and sell high on Parker and Artest and add a ton of pieces to his already decent fold of young talent. It has been a while since Quail has blown things up. I think he finally succumbs to the itch. Oh, and he’ll trade for 2011 pick back in a classic Quail move.
Hornets
Players - Under 25: 1; Current < Future: 0
1st Round Picks: Their own 2010 and 2012
5 Year Forecast:
☁ ☁ ☁Predicting GM Nick Malone is impossible so I’m definitely not putting any money on this hazy forecast. He has two terrific players in Z-Bo and Davis, who should still be great for the next couple years but the rest of the roster is thin. Without his 2011 I guess Nick drags this out a couple of years and then sells Z-Bo.
Raptors
Players - Under 25: 7; Current < Future: 3
1st Round Picks: Their own 2010 and 2012 and the Nets’ 2010
5 Year Forecast:
☁The Raptors are in a strange place. They are in win-now mode with Tim Thomas and without their 2011 but they also have a lot of young talent that they are relying on now in Bynum, DeRozan, and Hill. I’m guessing more moves will be made but as for now it looks pretty good for the foreseeable future and the question is simply how good will it get?
