2008-9 Season Recap: 65-17; Won Championship - SLOE continues 3 year streak of winner who will get no respect.
Offseason Outlook: Our champ has a lot of work to do this offseason if he wants to return to the promised land. The players the Bucks have under contract last year only played 51% of his minutes. Having to replace half your minutes with only $13m plus cap increases will be difficult without re-upping their own players to go WAY over the cap. Does he want to max a 30yr old Battier? What about NBA Finals X-Factor, Tony Parker?
Champ's Offseason Prescription: Quail has the points to pay the tax for at least another year with success, but probably not the 3-year repeater. I say, Frye it. Put out some big numbers out there to Battier and Parker, and aim for a second-tier set of centers. Then I'd market them hard next offseason to avoid the tax. If the Bucks miss on any one of the three needs, they're probably not making the finals, and I'd start selling. They have some NICE pieces that could be traded at the top of their games for a huge return.
Prediction: You want me to make a prediction on what the BUCKS will do? GTFO.
2008-9 Season Recap: 58-24; lost in first round; Many had the Hawks as favorites for a ring, but they only had 2 plus 20 PER guys, and it's really hard to win in the playoffs with 2 weapons. 8 of the past 9 champions have had 3+ 20 PER guys - as an aside, the Hawks SUPERteam had 5.
Offseason Outlook: Like the Bucks, the Hawks will lose many minutes from this team with only limited cap space to return them. Pau Gasol is a free agent, though still young at 28. Lamar Odom doesn't do anything particularly well, but does everything okay. He's a free agent, as is 29mpg of declining guard Jason Terry. Hawks have a lot of work to do this offseason.
Champ's Offseason Prescription: They need to find a 3rd fiddle to Gasol (who they should re-sign) and TimmyD. I'm not at all convinced that 3rd fiddle is Rudy Gay. This generations answer to Shandon Anderson, Rudy is a young B/B who doesn't look to be a huge asset in actually winning games. He's declined 3 straight years in terms of scoring efficiency. I'd trade him along with the soon tradeable 2012 pick, and perhaps Devin Harris, the good, but not great 26yr old point guard for a star in the back court.
Prediction: Wig is another hard to predict GM. He has a team full of tradeable guys who's colors look better than their numbers. And we all know some GM will take a shot at a deal with Wig, only to be skyperidiculed later.
2008-9 Season Recap: 48-34; took out the Hawks and Knicks before succumbing to the Bucks in straight sets. Should we be surprised? NickMalone has been to the playoffs in 2/3 of his seasons so he knows what it takes to win a series or two.
Offseason Outlook: With only 3 players under contract (4 after the inevitable super-max of Randolph), Nick will have to find a PG and Center off the scrap heap in Free Agency, much as he did this past year.
Champ's Offseason Prescription: Nick can be VERY aggressive in RFA, knowing he won't have a ton of cap after obviously re-signing Z-Bo. He should then focus on mid-tier PGs that can be had for less than a max - I'd target Earl Watson or Speedy Claxton. One of Dunleavy/Giricek should be included in a trade for an upgrade somewhere.
Prediction: The Central really does have the most unpredictable GMs. I'd guess Nick makes a couple signings and trades that make us go 'What?!', but then fields a competitive team who wins 40-50 games and makes the playoffs.
2008-9 Season Recap: 45-37; Took the eventual champs to 7 games; GOT AN OWNER
Offseason Outlook: This team is on the upswing - Though Pierce will decline slightly, the Foye/Paul/Gasol core are all young and improving. After signing Chris Paul, they won't have much cap space, but that's okay for next year.
Champ's Offseason Prescription: This team can go one of two ways - return basically the same team, be a fringe playoff team but rack up the stats and points to go along with that preparing for several years in the tax to come. Or they can trade Paul Pierce for future assets and officially call this - what would surely be - a quick reset.
Prediction: The market for a $20m player like Pierce might not be BOOMING, but they should get an offer that includes at least one intriguing draft pick which should be enough to trigger a mini-reset.
Second half this afternoon.
