Western Conference First Round Preview

[TheSyndicate]

Will post series by series throughout the day.

1. vs. 8.

The match-up: This Timberwolves team is not who the Nuggets dreamed of facing when they secured the #1 seed during the last sim of the season. Unlike last season, where the Nuggets lost only 3 playoff games en-route to a championship, their first round opponent is no walkover. This is a premier matchup of the two best players from the 2003 draft and the teams they lead embody their styles. It pits the prolific scoring a rebounding of the Bosh-led Wolves against the hard-nosed defense and inside battle of Wade’s Nuggets.

Why Minnesota wins: The T-Wolves’ prolific offense and relentless attack of the defensive boards – an area the Nuggets struggle – keep Denver from being able to generate enough shots to keep up. Double-Double machine and potential future-MVP Chris Bosh makes Kevin Garnett look more like ‘lost a step in TC’ KG than ‘perennial all-NBA 1st Team Defensive Player’ KG. Rip Hamilton adds 25ppg against the 2-inches shorter Wade, and they keep Denver off the line enough to win their 3 home games plus one in Denver in game 7.

Why Denver wins: The Nuggets counter with the same core of last year’s championship team with a few changes, notably at point guard which led the league in defense and can generate scoring from 4 of 5 positions on any given night. Keith Van Horn runs over whichever undersized and offensive-minded forward covering him and actually outscores Bosh in this series. The front-line of Griffin and KG make it tough for Bosh to get open looks who instead settles for mid-range jumpers which affect his rebounding numbers as well. Wade’s superb defense shuts down Rip Hamilton, and the Nuggets cruise to a 5-game series win.

Prediction: The Bosh-led Wolves steal a couple games in the closing minutes, but Denver’s balance defensively is too much to overcome as the Nuggets win in 6.

[TheSyndicate]

2. vs. 7.

The match-up: A meeting of two teams whose identities over the last half-decade have been opposites. While the Kings have been the team to beat in the West, the Clippers have occupied the Western cellar. This year, though, the two teams come together in an exciting matchup between the two-headed KDirk monster and TMac, Chandler, Deng, Hinrich, and the rest of the purple people-eaters

Why Los Angeles wins: In a picture-perfect copy of their previous meeting, Chandler and SAR are simply over-matched against Dirk’s mid-range game and Durant’s deadly marksmanship. McGrady gets his, but the Kings don’t answer the question of where the rest of the offense comes from and fail to break 90 several games in a row. The Hinrich injury slows him down just enough to become invisible and a game 1 upset sends momentum (and home-court) to LA. LA rides the wave to a 3-1 series lead, then holds off a late rally in 7.

Why Sacramento wins: Are you serious? These are the Kings. Best point differential, second best record, top-2 in Offensive and Defensive Efficiency, led by the MV-<expletive deleted>-P. And you think they’re even dropping a game to the Clippers? The Kings are strong in almost every aspect of the game, and the Clippers are not yet complete enough to exploit any relative weaknesses.

Prediction: This could be a fun matchup to watch over the next 5 years, but this season, the Kings win in a sweep.

[TheSyndicate]

3. vs. 6.

The match-up: These two teams finished within 4 games of each other during the regular season, but did so fielding teams that do things very differently. In Utah, there is a 3-headed monster of TD, Bonzi, and Jackson with limited contributions from everyone else. While in Seattle, they go a legit 7-deep interchangeable rotation with no superstars. The question this series will answer is, ‘Will the Sonics be able to exploit the weaknesses of the rest of their cast, or is the 3-headed monster too strong?’

Why Seattle wins: In the playoffs, you can’t attack in one way, and if you have holes they’ll be exploited. Seattle drops tons of points over the 2-non star players on the floor at any given time. While their first unit keeps it close, their second unit dominates Utah’s. Darth figures out a way to slow down the weak links in the Jazz’s unbalanced attack and wins 4 out of 5 games in close fashion.

Why Utah wins: Varajeo and Horford may one day form a dominant offensive/defensive front line, but they are too undeveloped now to even slow down Tim Duncan who drops a vintage performance averaging 30/13 in the series. Jefferson gets so tired trying to cover Jackson that he turns the ball over repeatedly leading to easy Utah baskets. The Jazz come out of the gate running, and the Sonics never really catch up failing to win a game in a series sweep.

Prediction: There are no easy series to call in the first round out West with so many good teams, but this may be the most difficult. I’m taking Seattle in an upset in 7 games.

[TheSyndicate]

4. vs. 5.

The match-up: These two closely-matched teams had monster first halves, but struggled to stay above .500 in the second half with the Lakers only managing a 20-21 record. You might think you could write off the Grizzlies’ second-half skid and chalk it up to the injury to Bobby Simmons, however, the highest concentration of their 2nd-half losses came since their 6th-man returned to the lineup. On the court, they’re both led by Point-Shooting guards (Kobe and Finley), defensive stalwarts at Center (Bogut and Booth), and tons of depth.

Why Los Angeles wins: The Grizzlies' second-half slump was indicative of a bigger issue. Kobe takes over the scoring, Tony Allen shuts down Posey and Simmons on the wing, and the dominant rebounding duo of Reggie Evans and Andrew Bogut keep Memphis off the glass. The lack of second chances hurts the Grizzlies offense just enough to lose the first two at home and roll from there.

Why Memphis wins: Though these are two similar teams, Memphis boasts the better defense and has home-court advantage. Memphis shakes off the last month, and the less-athletic Grizzlies turn this into a half-court series when the Lakers would prefer to run. The frustrated Lakers begin to turn the ball over, and despite LA possessing better rebounders, you can’t rebound a dunk. Though each game is a grind-it-out slugfest, Memphis does enough in each game to win in 5.

Prediction: The inconsistency these teams have shown this season make this series totally unpredictable. That said, in the playoffs, home-court and defense are hugely valuable. The numbers say take the Grizzlies, but these teams have been so volatile that I’m going the other way, and picking the Lakers in 6.

[IamQuailman]

Awarded 5 points! (2007-08 season)