SLOE's Sweet 16 are at it again, as a select few GMs gear up for another round of thrilling and heartbreaking playoff action. Out in the Eastern conference, unexpected surprises and unfortunate injuries are the order of the day. Several teams came out of nowhere to grab their spot, while the few perennial favorites in the mix aren't as well-equipped to deal with the new threats as you'd think. The field appears to be wide open, and for many, this could be their best chance yet to make a statement. But who really has what it takes to rise to the top and seize the Eastern conference crown?
ATLANTAHAWKS
#1, First-Round Matchup: Pistons
They're baaaack...every GM in the league knew that it was only a matter of time before Wig brought the Hawks back to the top, but few thought it'd be this season. At 54-28, the key to this team is versatility. There's no such thing as a favorable matchup against the Hawks, because Wig has at least one guy at every position that can throw a monkey wrench in your plans. The playoffs are where gameplanning comes to the forefront, and having a team that's nigh-impossible to gameplan against with homecourt advantage is a tall order to face, as Detroit is about to find out.
X-Factor: Wig
Because of the youth on this team, it's likely that they'll struggle once they go up against stronger veteran teams starting in the second round. If they want to go all the way, Wig will have to do a masterful job of shuffling pieces around to get the best possible matchups night in and night out. It's totally doable, especially for a GM of Wig's caliber, but it's not easy.
WASHINGTONWIZARDS
#2, First-Round Matchup: Nets
Expect the unexpected, as a last-second surge by the Wizards netted them division gold to match their new look. Rashard Lewis had yet another monstrous season, but it's the contributions of unsung heroes like Jarrett Jack, Ray Allen, and Gerald Wallace that has put this franchise in a favorable position once again. But with one of those key pieces (Nene Hilario) down for the count, opposing teams with dominant centers have a clear target to aim for - and as luck would have it, the Nets are one of those teams.
X-Factor: Guys not named Rashard Lewis
Believe it or not, the playoffs are a familiar sight to DC faithful, as this marks their 7th straight playoff appearance and 5th division title. But time after time, the supporting cast disappeared at critical moments, sending the Wiz home early. If the Wizards want to make the most of a golden (ha ha) opportunity and finally establish themselves, the onus is on the rest of the team to do what the likes of Shaq, Anthony Johnson, Terry Mills, Jerry Stackhouse and Lamar Odom couldn't, which is to finish what Rashard starts.
MILWAUKEEBUCKS
#3, First-Round Matchup: Knicks
The Bucks were actually well on their way to #1 in the East once again until getting Skyrim'd with arrows to various body parts of key players towards the end of the season. Amare Stoudemire's still out, meaning that the Bucks will have to go without perhaps their biggest playoff asset. The outlook is eerily similar to last season's Celtics collapse, but there's still enough left in the Bucks' tank to prevent the Knicks from pulling off the upset.
X-Factor: The D
The Bucks boasted the East's best defense this season behind the skills of Battier, Artest, and Stoudemire. But with Stoudemire out, it falls to Battier & Artest alone to combat the Knicks' menacing duo of Brand & Anthony. And with guys like Antawn Jamison, Pau Gasol, Carlos Boozer, Rashard Lewis, etc. possibly lying in wait, it doesn't get any easier. The possibility of this kind of gauntlet was exactly why Battier was brought in, and if the Bucks want to make a serious run, he (and Artest) will have to make good on Quail's investment and lock down their opponents.
BOSTONCELTICS
#4, First-Round Matchup: Hornets
The Celtics' usual road to victory took an unexpected detour as the season wound down, and now they have a little more than they bargained for in the first round. Unlike last season though, the Celts are fully healthy, and with the DPOY and computer's choice for 6MOY ready to go, Boston is still one of the top threats to win the East, and just might be THE team to beat, seeding be damned.
X-Factor: Health
After seeing Hunter go down last season and Boozer miss 21 games this time around, the Celtics' biggest obstacle to reestablishing their dominance is themselves. Boston's bench has gotten thinner and thinner as the years have gone by, meaning that one injury to any one of their powerful 7-man rotation could send them home. All hands must stay on deck for the Celtics to emerge as conference champions.
NEWORLEANSHORNETS
#5, First-Round Matchup: Celtics
Yet another injury-affected team, the Hornets were quietly challenging for the Central division crown until Iguodala's injury. That threw off their groove, but now that he's back in time for the playoffs, last season's conference champions begin the road to repeating in Boston...not quite the kind of opening act one would want as a team trying to get its mojo back.
X-Factor: Depth
One big reason why the Hornets struggled once Iggy went down was the fact that outside of Webber and maybe Buckner, the guys surrounding Jamison and Randolph just didn't have it in them to contribute. Unlike the Celtics, it's not health that's the issue, because the Hornets have serious flaws even when the stars are healthy. It's not as big a problem against the Celtics' 7-man rotation, but once teams like the Hawks come into play, multiple people will have to step up to combat a multifaceted attack that isn't scared to let Jamison & Randolph go crazy while they pick apart the other 3 positions. For the Hornets to get back to the top, the team as a whole will have to kick into another gear, one that just wasn't there during the regular season.
NEWYORKKNICKS
#6, First-Round Matchup: Bucks
In an Eastern conference filled to the brim with surprises, Inner GI and the Knicks might be the biggest surprise of them all. After dismal seasons that didn't seem to match up with the sheer talent on the roster, Inner took over and proved that a steady hand was all that was needed. That same steady hand should stay wary against the Bucks, who appear to be ripe for the taking but could still easily dispose of an overconfident, untested young team.
X-Factor: Inner GI
Inner's been the x-factor for the Knicks all season long, and the playoffs are no different. After a consistently underachieving tenure in Phoenix and a wildly successful stint in LA, the question of which team is representative of Inner's GM skills still remains. This is the chance to tip the scales, as an Eastern conference final appearance isn't out of the question for NY when looking at the brackets. The Knicks have a chance to really put a nice cap on their season and establish themselves as a team on the rise - but only if Inner's at the top of his game.
NEWJERSEYNETS
#7, First-Round Matchup: Wizards
Once again, a key injury threatens to derail the momentum of a solid season. After stumbling out of the gate, RPF swiftly got to work, booting out Paul Gasol and using the contract he picked up from that move to match salary for Ricky Davis. But when star swingman Mike Miller went down, the Nets' post-ASG surge cooled off. They may have caught a break by drawing DC instead of Boston, but it remains to be seen if they can take advantage of it.
X-Factor: The schedule
It's not how well Kaman can expose the Wizards' hole at C that's the key to this series, nor is it how well New Jersey handles DC's army of small forwards. The key is the fact that the longer New Jersey stays alive, the more likely it is that Miller can come back in time to finish the series at 100%. With him, the series goes from being slightly slanted in DC's favor to favoring New Jersey, as Miller provides the firepower to keep up with the high-octane Wizards offense, a fact proven by New Jersey's 3-1 record against the Wizards this season.
DETROITPISTONS
#8, First-Round Matchup: Hawks
Despite looking like a team on the rise coming into the season, the Pistons never really started pumping once the games were played, finishing a game worse than last season's .500 finish. Despite having such an average season, Detroit faithful feel as if they're right where they want to be, as last season's playoff upset experience could prove valuable against a powerful but untested foe in the Atlanta Hawks.
X-Factor: Dwight Howard
Despite being hailed as the league's next top big man 4 years ago, Howard has just barely broken average as a pro so far, with a stat line comparable to the Calvin Booths and Michael Olowokandis of the NBA world. With RFA on the horizon, Howard needs to show something to prove his worth, and it just so happens that now is the perfect time. One way to combat a versatile team is to reduce their ability to tinker by attacking them at every point. With K-Mart leading the way with 25 ppg and Aldridge, Parker, and Maggette averaging out to about 15 ppg each, the Pistons are capable of doing just that...but only if Howard chips in with his own 13-15 ppg. If not, then Howard's ineffectiveness will provide just the opening Wig needs to pick the Pistons apart.
Predictions:
Final Four:
In the end, Battier & Artest have to shoulder too much responsibility on both ends, and it results in Brand & Anthony gradually seizing control of the matchup, and later the series. Also primed for a breakout series is Yao Ming, who faces no opposition whatsoever on the other end.
The Wizards manage to squeak out a win in a 6-game series, barely escaping the wrath of a fully healthy Mike Miller, whose absence leaves the Nets wide open for an all-out assault on the wings.
If, and only if, Boston stays healthy, their complete rotation overwhelms the Hornets' two-man power trip in a tight, hotly contested series, possibly going the full 7.
Atlanta just has too many bodies to throw at Detroit's 4 scorers, at least one will be neutralized. Detroit also has no way to make up for the loss of that scorer's contribution due to a nonexistent bench.
ECF:
DC falters yet again, as their lack of post depth causes them to crumble in the face of the Yao/Brand combo. The Knicks somehow manage to get through two rounds without having an actual shooting guard, but will that be enough to get to the finals?
In a battle of the two top Eastern conference teams, Atlanta's 11-man rotation beats Boston's 7, as once again, the Hawks' ability to neutralize at least one key opposing player without fail makes the difference.
Finals-bound:
If the Bucks were at full strength, if the Knicks had an actual guard rotation, if the Celtics and Hornets had a legit, full bench, things would be different. The Hawks' youth and inexperience, not to mention the lack of a true go-to guy, would be their undoing against teams with veteran experience and legit #1 & #2 options. As it is, all those teams currently reside out West, and the Hawks' ridiculous versatility give them the edge against pretty much every Eastern conference playoff team. They're somewhat similar to the 2004-05 Sixers, or even the 1990-92 Hawks, in that they're a team that wins due to everybody on the team being able to contribute at an efficient level when needed, regardless of age or ability. But when matched up against a team that can overwhelm their numbers with multiple tough-to-guard players, how will they fare? We shall see...
ATLANTAHAWKS
#1, First-Round Matchup: Pistons
They're baaaack...every GM in the league knew that it was only a matter of time before Wig brought the Hawks back to the top, but few thought it'd be this season. At 54-28, the key to this team is versatility. There's no such thing as a favorable matchup against the Hawks, because Wig has at least one guy at every position that can throw a monkey wrench in your plans. The playoffs are where gameplanning comes to the forefront, and having a team that's nigh-impossible to gameplan against with homecourt advantage is a tall order to face, as Detroit is about to find out.
X-Factor: Wig
Because of the youth on this team, it's likely that they'll struggle once they go up against stronger veteran teams starting in the second round. If they want to go all the way, Wig will have to do a masterful job of shuffling pieces around to get the best possible matchups night in and night out. It's totally doable, especially for a GM of Wig's caliber, but it's not easy.
WASHINGTONWIZARDS
#2, First-Round Matchup: Nets
Expect the unexpected, as a last-second surge by the Wizards netted them division gold to match their new look. Rashard Lewis had yet another monstrous season, but it's the contributions of unsung heroes like Jarrett Jack, Ray Allen, and Gerald Wallace that has put this franchise in a favorable position once again. But with one of those key pieces (Nene Hilario) down for the count, opposing teams with dominant centers have a clear target to aim for - and as luck would have it, the Nets are one of those teams.
X-Factor: Guys not named Rashard Lewis
Believe it or not, the playoffs are a familiar sight to DC faithful, as this marks their 7th straight playoff appearance and 5th division title. But time after time, the supporting cast disappeared at critical moments, sending the Wiz home early. If the Wizards want to make the most of a golden (ha ha) opportunity and finally establish themselves, the onus is on the rest of the team to do what the likes of Shaq, Anthony Johnson, Terry Mills, Jerry Stackhouse and Lamar Odom couldn't, which is to finish what Rashard starts.
MILWAUKEEBUCKS
#3, First-Round Matchup: Knicks
The Bucks were actually well on their way to #1 in the East once again until getting Skyrim'd with arrows to various body parts of key players towards the end of the season. Amare Stoudemire's still out, meaning that the Bucks will have to go without perhaps their biggest playoff asset. The outlook is eerily similar to last season's Celtics collapse, but there's still enough left in the Bucks' tank to prevent the Knicks from pulling off the upset.
X-Factor: The D
The Bucks boasted the East's best defense this season behind the skills of Battier, Artest, and Stoudemire. But with Stoudemire out, it falls to Battier & Artest alone to combat the Knicks' menacing duo of Brand & Anthony. And with guys like Antawn Jamison, Pau Gasol, Carlos Boozer, Rashard Lewis, etc. possibly lying in wait, it doesn't get any easier. The possibility of this kind of gauntlet was exactly why Battier was brought in, and if the Bucks want to make a serious run, he (and Artest) will have to make good on Quail's investment and lock down their opponents.
BOSTONCELTICS
#4, First-Round Matchup: Hornets
The Celtics' usual road to victory took an unexpected detour as the season wound down, and now they have a little more than they bargained for in the first round. Unlike last season though, the Celts are fully healthy, and with the DPOY and computer's choice for 6MOY ready to go, Boston is still one of the top threats to win the East, and just might be THE team to beat, seeding be damned.
X-Factor: Health
After seeing Hunter go down last season and Boozer miss 21 games this time around, the Celtics' biggest obstacle to reestablishing their dominance is themselves. Boston's bench has gotten thinner and thinner as the years have gone by, meaning that one injury to any one of their powerful 7-man rotation could send them home. All hands must stay on deck for the Celtics to emerge as conference champions.
NEWORLEANSHORNETS
#5, First-Round Matchup: Celtics
Yet another injury-affected team, the Hornets were quietly challenging for the Central division crown until Iguodala's injury. That threw off their groove, but now that he's back in time for the playoffs, last season's conference champions begin the road to repeating in Boston...not quite the kind of opening act one would want as a team trying to get its mojo back.
X-Factor: Depth
One big reason why the Hornets struggled once Iggy went down was the fact that outside of Webber and maybe Buckner, the guys surrounding Jamison and Randolph just didn't have it in them to contribute. Unlike the Celtics, it's not health that's the issue, because the Hornets have serious flaws even when the stars are healthy. It's not as big a problem against the Celtics' 7-man rotation, but once teams like the Hawks come into play, multiple people will have to step up to combat a multifaceted attack that isn't scared to let Jamison & Randolph go crazy while they pick apart the other 3 positions. For the Hornets to get back to the top, the team as a whole will have to kick into another gear, one that just wasn't there during the regular season.
NEWYORKKNICKS
#6, First-Round Matchup: Bucks
In an Eastern conference filled to the brim with surprises, Inner GI and the Knicks might be the biggest surprise of them all. After dismal seasons that didn't seem to match up with the sheer talent on the roster, Inner took over and proved that a steady hand was all that was needed. That same steady hand should stay wary against the Bucks, who appear to be ripe for the taking but could still easily dispose of an overconfident, untested young team.
X-Factor: Inner GI
Inner's been the x-factor for the Knicks all season long, and the playoffs are no different. After a consistently underachieving tenure in Phoenix and a wildly successful stint in LA, the question of which team is representative of Inner's GM skills still remains. This is the chance to tip the scales, as an Eastern conference final appearance isn't out of the question for NY when looking at the brackets. The Knicks have a chance to really put a nice cap on their season and establish themselves as a team on the rise - but only if Inner's at the top of his game.
NEWJERSEYNETS
#7, First-Round Matchup: Wizards
Once again, a key injury threatens to derail the momentum of a solid season. After stumbling out of the gate, RPF swiftly got to work, booting out Paul Gasol and using the contract he picked up from that move to match salary for Ricky Davis. But when star swingman Mike Miller went down, the Nets' post-ASG surge cooled off. They may have caught a break by drawing DC instead of Boston, but it remains to be seen if they can take advantage of it.
X-Factor: The schedule
It's not how well Kaman can expose the Wizards' hole at C that's the key to this series, nor is it how well New Jersey handles DC's army of small forwards. The key is the fact that the longer New Jersey stays alive, the more likely it is that Miller can come back in time to finish the series at 100%. With him, the series goes from being slightly slanted in DC's favor to favoring New Jersey, as Miller provides the firepower to keep up with the high-octane Wizards offense, a fact proven by New Jersey's 3-1 record against the Wizards this season.
DETROITPISTONS
#8, First-Round Matchup: Hawks
Despite looking like a team on the rise coming into the season, the Pistons never really started pumping once the games were played, finishing a game worse than last season's .500 finish. Despite having such an average season, Detroit faithful feel as if they're right where they want to be, as last season's playoff upset experience could prove valuable against a powerful but untested foe in the Atlanta Hawks.
X-Factor: Dwight Howard
Despite being hailed as the league's next top big man 4 years ago, Howard has just barely broken average as a pro so far, with a stat line comparable to the Calvin Booths and Michael Olowokandis of the NBA world. With RFA on the horizon, Howard needs to show something to prove his worth, and it just so happens that now is the perfect time. One way to combat a versatile team is to reduce their ability to tinker by attacking them at every point. With K-Mart leading the way with 25 ppg and Aldridge, Parker, and Maggette averaging out to about 15 ppg each, the Pistons are capable of doing just that...but only if Howard chips in with his own 13-15 ppg. If not, then Howard's ineffectiveness will provide just the opening Wig needs to pick the Pistons apart.
Predictions:
Final Four:
In the end, Battier & Artest have to shoulder too much responsibility on both ends, and it results in Brand & Anthony gradually seizing control of the matchup, and later the series. Also primed for a breakout series is Yao Ming, who faces no opposition whatsoever on the other end.
The Wizards manage to squeak out a win in a 6-game series, barely escaping the wrath of a fully healthy Mike Miller, whose absence leaves the Nets wide open for an all-out assault on the wings.
If, and only if, Boston stays healthy, their complete rotation overwhelms the Hornets' two-man power trip in a tight, hotly contested series, possibly going the full 7.
Atlanta just has too many bodies to throw at Detroit's 4 scorers, at least one will be neutralized. Detroit also has no way to make up for the loss of that scorer's contribution due to a nonexistent bench.
ECF:
DC falters yet again, as their lack of post depth causes them to crumble in the face of the Yao/Brand combo. The Knicks somehow manage to get through two rounds without having an actual shooting guard, but will that be enough to get to the finals?
In a battle of the two top Eastern conference teams, Atlanta's 11-man rotation beats Boston's 7, as once again, the Hawks' ability to neutralize at least one key opposing player without fail makes the difference.
Finals-bound:
If the Bucks were at full strength, if the Knicks had an actual guard rotation, if the Celtics and Hornets had a legit, full bench, things would be different. The Hawks' youth and inexperience, not to mention the lack of a true go-to guy, would be their undoing against teams with veteran experience and legit #1 & #2 options. As it is, all those teams currently reside out West, and the Hawks' ridiculous versatility give them the edge against pretty much every Eastern conference playoff team. They're somewhat similar to the 2004-05 Sixers, or even the 1990-92 Hawks, in that they're a team that wins due to everybody on the team being able to contribute at an efficient level when needed, regardless of age or ability. But when matched up against a team that can overwhelm their numbers with multiple tough-to-guard players, how will they fare? We shall see...
