#SLOE: People's Basketball Sim League

The recent look at the tax bills plus my own inability to score reasonable deals (to me) in free agency has led me to reflect on contracts league-wide.

In this piece, I'm going to look at some criteria for a class contracts that may be negative assets . . . so whatever their value is, it will decline and a team can not unilaterally rid itself of that contract. This is just one look at one set of contracts. I'm sure there are other ways to approach this problem.

We can define a bad contract as "one that isn't worth it," but that's not very helpful. It's too difficult to extract "worth" and "it" here. Additionally, let it be known that I'm not condemning the decisions to hand out certain contracts. Sometimes, you do the bad deal to get what you want, put you over the top, or simply because it is the best option among the available choices. I'm judging none of that. At the end of this, I'd like to hear some objective commentary from some owners of the contracts on this list, of course, to hear their thoughts on what they like about these contracts.

As such, I'm going to ask a related question to pare down the contracts, reserving the right to add further criteria: "What contracts are 1) above average salary 2) for more than one guaranteed year 3) that increases in salary 4) for a player the is at least 31, so declining in overall ability?" According to the Training Camp analysis, a 31 year old declines in training camp, I use that as a line in the sand. The same goes for average salary . . . I can change the criterion, but let's start somewhere, and average seems a good a place as any. The other criteria are self-evident.

Going back to context one last time, this is loosely asking: Which contracts take up more than average space and are guaranteed to worsen in value in more than one way . . . both in contract size and in player value? This is fair question to ask, but a contract with this property is not necessarily a bad contract. It is, however, a negative asset.

The total cap figure for the League is $1,650,875,613 (awwwww shit). If we go per team, that's $56,926,745.28, which is over the cap by a good bit, and is just the way the Players' Union wants it. On a per player basis, which is what we care about, the average salary is $4,884,247.38. For reference, the median salary is $2,067,807. This is expected due to salary floors and the strong modality in contracts. More on that later.

Of the 338 contracts we are left with after the trade deadline purge, 109 have values above the average, the smallest of which is $4,901,000. These 109 contracts, or just under 1/3 of the contracts of the League, represent in $1,282,055,039, or almost 78% of the salary cap. That's just in current year salary, to be clear.

Of these 109 contracts, 77 have multiple years on them and 7 of those have team options (some may have already been cleared). The Timberwolves have already said they are picking up Shaq's option, and that's fine, but I left him off the list. Again, this is not about choices, but about contracts. His salary was under control of the team, so it could have been zero if a team decided that way. Also, I left in player options here because I'm assuming that players will pick up a large salary. If I'm proven wrong here or there, so be it; I think the message will remain the same.

Filtering for age (taking into account birthdays between now and camp) and contracts that do no increase in value, I found 20 contracts. I'll double check my list as best I can, but I'm sure you guys will, too. This list, about 1/17 of the contracts of the League, however, is worth $280,488,656, or about 1/6 of the aggregate League cap figure. In percentages, that means 6% on the League's contracts classify as negative assets by this definition while occupying almost 17% of the League's cap figure.

I have to do some work (the spaceship kind), so this will continue soon. I will present the 20 contracts (they are not hard to find), dig in a little, and pass on a few observations I made during this investigation.

To be clear, the next post should just be considered this same article and not for additional points.

Here are the contracts:

I've done my best to take into account options (remember, I'm assuming a player keeps up a player option and ignoring contracts with play options when not picking up the option takes the contract from this filter. I've also done my best to take into account birthdays, so players may not appear to go through a camp at age 31 here, but given that the pick up a birthday later this season or in the offseason, the player will go through a camp at age 31. Andre Miller is an example.

At this point, I invite you study the list carefully.

There are a number of ways to break the list down, but ages isn't too helpful, and it's current sorted by current year salary. Positions are changeable, so that's of no great interest to me. Looking at teams is a little interesting. Of the 20 contracts, they are spread across just 13 teams, so a little under half the League. Orlando has 3 such contracts. The following 5 have a pair of them: Dallas, Denver, Houston, Miami, Seattle. The other 7 teams just have one: Boston, Indiana, New Orleans, Portland, San Antonio, Toronto, Utah.

Again, these are not necessarily bad contracts, but they come with an intrinsic diminishing value at some point over the life of the contract. Let's look at these and if any are truly bad.

I'll likely do this tomorrow. Feel free to discuss, of course.

Let's start by looking at the contracts that are expiring next season. There are 8.
Kemp and Kidd have team options, so I'm looking at them with this group.

Vaughn, Johnson (Who Dat?!): Vaughn is a decent contract given his performance this season, which is the best of his career. While "yellow," he outperforms some "green" players even while leading arguably the worst team in the League and one constructed only with regard to asset collection, particularly points. A big hit in athleticism could really knock him back, but at age 31, maybe he's still be an above average player with just a slightly puffy salary . . . on paper. In practice, it may be a a comparatively good contract. With no tax hit this season and tons of cap room with no tax risk for next, at least at present, there are no additional costs to consider. Same for Johnson but with more salary and better stats.

Rose, Kemp: Two vets added to the Heat this season, one in free agency, the other in trade, which cost a first round pick. The trade for Rose netted a good player who will likely contribute next season and at a level to make his salary at least arguably worth the actual salary. The Kemp contract is massive, and the 36 year old has not only lost many a step, his athleticism is dropping precipitously. He's performing above average, but makes in the top 10% of salary this season, and next season he'll rank at least as high for worse play. At his age, a massive drop is possible.

Miller: The last of the more modest contracts, Miller's situation is about that of Rose above. Interesting to note that he was listed at 30 before his "birthday" which i did not notice. As such, he likely should not be on this list. However, I'm not panning him, so I'm leaving him on. Maybe the game rolls his age in the offseason. We'll see, but apologies to all if he should not be on this list. However, just as a reminder, presence on this list does not make an contract bad in itself.

Kidd: Kidd's contract is one of the 3 biggest in this group, but his play is also a cut above. This season, there is no argument against him being worth it. His salary is to high, however, that his value will be very sensitive to a drop in his talent, if it happens. At his age, you have to worry, but Kidd has also been steady. The Rockets' tax situation also makes that option year interesting. Even if he's declining, holding onto him may be the team's best option to earn wins to pay the tax man.

Marshall: Marshall just has his worst season in a while, and he's down across the board in term of skill and especially athleticism. This is not looking good for Denver if they do not win the title this season as Marshall is set to make almost $20m next season with his player option.

Webber: Webber is in a situation more like Kidd's, just a big man. As such, he's a little more at risk of a big drop in value if his athleticism goes. However, there is a little big of a question here, as his numbers dropped markedly when he was traded to Houston several season ago. Since then, he's been traded to Indiana, and his numbers have not dropped from that level. However, the dropped may have been masked by the differences in systems. If he's already dropping, then next season will be no fun.

12 more contracts to go.

Yeah I'm thinking that I'm gonna keep Kidd throughout his deal.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Marshall just ended up on a team with a lot of guys touching the ball. Very happy to have him next season assuming he picks up his option.

Here are the remaining contracts with 2 more season on them, perhaps with a team option for a third:
It leaps off the page that the Magic appear here 3 of 7 times. Let's look at those guys together.

Anfernee Hardaway: Penny took a step back 4 seasons ago . . . as he started aging. The step back and the loss of Sprewell did the Hawks in, and now Penny has one of the largest contracts in the League at age 34. He's a star, but he's a falling star. if the Magic win it all, maybe you can put lipstick on this pig, but Penny is already losing his defense and his offense is slipping. If his athleticism stays up, maybe this can be endured in isolation, but Penny is a timebomb set to make over $20m, or likely more than or about 1/3 of the cap for the next two seasons.

Ben Wallace: It's hard to argue that Wallace is improving going into the season where he'll be 32, but Wallace is certainly among the best in the League regardless of his trajectory. He is the essence of defense and is the reigning defensive player of the year, something he is no stranger to being. As with any older player, you have to be prepared for the worst, but it's hard to fault this contract. Like Kidd, this is one where the option year may be interesting considering the tax "situation" this team is in.

Keith Van Horn: He is the offense to Wallace's defense. Van Horn is the key to this team, and this contract is a no brainer. Pay the man. Again, this option year will be an interesting one.

And now for the guys not all on the same team . . .

Zydrunas Ilgauskas: Ilgauskas is like Ben Wallace with a touch less caffeine. He make a little more money, plays a little worse on a worse team, but is steady and a year younger than Wallace. Not everyone may want this contract, but someone will.

Kevin Garnett: Garnett kind of interesting. He barely makes the cut here in terms of age, but he's also posted his worst stats since he was on a rookie scale deal. It's hard to tell if it's the fit, role, or him, but he's played with stars when he was a title contender and winner in Los Angeles. Still, given Garnett's age, this contract will have value on the market even if the Nuggets team fails to contend. Garnett won recently, and GM's won't blame him.

Raja Bell: Traded from Miami, who gives out some interesting contracts, in a salary dump / roster churn, this is our first player of two in this group without top-tier salary. Still, he is also the first player and only player on this list to effectively be a role player. A complete draft bust by Atlanta (who immediately traded him), he just never amounted to anything and is a very poor athlete, if one with some skills for his position. That second year is a player option, but he's nearing 30 in just his 6th year, too. I'm not sure if this is worst contract on the list, but you have to discuss it.

Rafer Alston: Alston is easy. He's a good player on a good deal. He plays a position of need for many teams. The pluses easily outweigh the minuses here, particularly with the season he just had. Hell, with another good season, he could opt out of his option year.

Here are the remaining contracts with 3 or 4 more seasons on them, the longest in the League:
The only option year is Marbury's final year, and that is a player option. Let's start with him.

Stephon Marbury: All of the contracts on this list are going to be pretty bad in the final year at least, but Marbury has a chance to hold up. Teams can always use point guard, and Marbury has a ton of athleticism and key point guard skills. When he starts taking a step back, he may lost ability is non-key areas first and retain value. He doesn't even need to register at the value of a restricted free agent in that final year to justify the salary.

Tim Thomas: There is little to discuss here. Thomas is one of the best in the League and he will be when this contract ends, too. Period.

Now to the 3 longest contracts in the League at the moment . . .

Bonzi Wells: Bonzi is still getting better and stands to do so for a couple more seasons before taking steps back. That contract has some big raises, and he'll be making over $21m per season when the decline will likely begin, but if he's one of the best in the League, even at age 32, someone will take on the burden for a rental.

Ray Allen: Allen's situation is about like that of Bonzi. He's a little older, but he's also an elite 3-point shooter, and being the best in the League has value into the twilight years (see: Shaq).

Marcus Camby: This is a problem. Camby is defensively focused, so stats don't tell the entire story of his value, but a decline in stats likely shows a decline in whatever that value is, and Camby is already declining. His athleticism is faltering and it simply will not increase. His contract does not escalate like the other two longer deals, but if he declines to below average (current PER is 16.5 compared to an analytic average of 15), this could be worst contract in the League at some point.

AWARDED 5 POINTS towards 15pt media allowance (do not claim full amount if it puts you over our max of 15)