S86 Town Hall 2

[Mike Lowry]

Who's Movin? - What trades do you see coming at day 60?
Who's Groovin? - Which teams will improve with cohesion?
Who's Holiday Plans Are Ruined? - Which teams should turn for the tank sooner than later?

Rules: 1 point if you give thoughtful answers, which I will award after the timer ends for responses. The timer ends for responses at the moment the corresponding week's Sim is run.

Note: Use approximately 5 sentences as your bare minimum for 1 point. If you write 3 long, complex sentences, you'll still get a point. If you write 5, 3 word sentences, you will not get a point. Don't @ me.

Due: Deadline for Sim 3

[Xist2Inspire]

Who's Movin? - What trades do you see coming at day 60?

Natt's time in Chicago is coming to a close. It might not be an easy contract to move, as it's an old max, but I don't think it's impossible. In a highly competitive East, the Bulls look to be one of the teams clearly on the outs, so it's probably time to cut the cord. Of the trio of Cheeks, Natt, and Short, Natt is by far the easiest one to move.

Short's an UFA, so even though matching salary is much easier with him, GMs are understandably going to be wary of moving too much for what could be a rental. I do think that the Knicks are desperate enough to round out their lineup that they might make a play for him. Cheeks is very close to being a complete non-starter. He's b/b and still a top-notch PG, but being on tap for two more near-max money seasons after this one is risky business. 30 seemingly isn't quite the instant death that it used to be though, so there's a good chance that Cheeks will still be a legitimate backup at least in the final year of his contract. Will that help grease the wheels? I dunno.

Natt's the perfect blend of affordability, contract length, and production. He's only in the hook for one season after this one, and it's only 1.2 mil. Keep an eye out for the Pistons, as Michael Ray Richardson's expiring both matches salary and gives LogP 1.2 mil less to worry about next season. Natt can either start at SG to form a huge starting 5 or Tbone, or come off the bench to back up Alvin and Terry.

Who's Groovin? - Which teams will improve with cohesion?

Same answer as last week, the Trailblazers. They already got back over .500 during the last sim, and even though they still don't look great, I do feel like they'll be able to threaten the lower seeds in the West. Worthy being out for almost two months is a big loss, but anyone who thinks that English is too old to step in and fill that void isn't thinking straight. If Wig is giving this team his full focus, they will get better.

Who's Holiday Plans Are Ruined? - Which teams should turn for the tank sooner than later?

Every Western conference team under .500 should take a look at their roster and contracts and determine if they really want to keep going with the guys they have. I really don't think it's wise to rely on the cap continually rising to bail you out if you're currently bumping up against the tax. Not paying attention to who's on your roster and how much they cost could see you unexpectedly giving away a player you don't want to in order to clear space for a player that you really want to keep. A lot of Western Conference teams have started off bad enough, and have enough younger talent to make the pivot now and start a rebuild. I don't know which one of them will lighten the load and tank away, but they all should consider it.

[K-100]

Who's Movin? - What trades do you see coming at day 60?
I think the Rockets finally move Larry Bird, and I think the 76ers will fix their logjam in the frontcourt by selling a piece off for backcourt help to mitigate the Humphries injury.

Who's Groovin? - Which teams will improve with cohesion?
I see the Nets and Cavaliers as teams that will continue to improve as time goes on. They both have solid starting lineups so a few more reps with their squads and they will continue to rise.

Who's Holiday Plans Are Ruined? - Which teams should turn for the tank sooner than later?
Lots of teams in the West, including the Mavericks. There is a lot of talent amongst these potential lottery teams but getting the right package of prospects is the key. I expect more moves at the trade deadline when the writing is on the wall and these team embrace the tank fully.

[WigNosy]

Who's Movin? - What trades do you see coming at day 60?
Who's Groovin? - Which teams will improve with cohesion?
Who's Holiday Plans Are Ruined? - Which teams should turn for the tank sooner than later?

Call me crazy, but I think Joe Dumars might be moved at Day 60. Darth has been valuing Dumars at "star level" in trade talks since he was drafted, but I think he has to be worried that teams are going to look at Dumars' production this year (8 ppg in 38 mpg on 31% shooting) and decide they will believe the stats and he will have to setting for a return that is less than "star level" but more than "nothing."

The Nets have too much talent on the roster to remain under .500 forever. I have to think increased cohesion will help them turn around.

I'll avoid opining on the Blazers' chances following the Worthy injury, but the other team I think might be looking at the tank is the Bullets. They have their own draft pick, their starting bigs (Cartwright and Green) are both out due to injury, and the core of the team (outside Green) is in its prime (26-30 years old) meaning this year is probably their best chance to get an infusion of talent where they aren't giving up talent in return (i.e., trading) for a while unless they totally gut their roster.

[greepleairport]

I could see most teams in my division making moves, besides the Lakers, because they can’t put together a reasonable offer. I also don’t see the suns moving anything because they have their pick and we have a good draft coming up.

The bucks lakers and spurs are only getting better. Hmph.

When I look at teams possibly in ruin, I don’t know that I see one clear and obvious answer. Maybe me. Maybe the Nets. Maybe the bullets after many offseason moves resulting in a .500 record. But I really only think bailing applies if you’re looking at a huge tax bill, which brings me back to the warriors clippers and nets. Our team aren’t cheap (Blazers neither)! But who else will keep the lakers honest but us? I think we all stay the course or try to get better. Let’s see what happens!


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[Mike Lowry]

Who's Movin? - What trades do you see coming at day 60?
I think Calvin Natt finally moves for a smaller package.
I'll be pretty surprised if Robert Reid or Dave Corzine don't move.
The Clippers and Pistons are set to compete and they have assets they could pair with those contracts to upgrade win now talent.

Who's Groovin? - Which teams will improve with cohesion?
I can't imagine teams like the Nets, Hawks, and Mavs continue to lose the way they are with that much talent on their rosters.
I expect the win percentages to jump significantly.

Who's Holiday Plans Are Ruined? - Which teams should turn for the tank sooner than later?
The Suns, 6ers, Rockets, and Nuggets are hard to look at because they have slumped so long that they each have nice lottery pieces on their respective rosters, but no intention of turning them into winners. I don't imagine them making changes where they don't get completely slimed. And they won't turn up the engagement enough to matter.
The Bulls already look like they're headed for the tank, I'll be joining them after moving some pieces after this sim, the Clippers could go either way, but based on their cap situation, they should probably sell.

[IamQuailman]

Who's Movin? - What trades do you see coming at day 60?
Who's Groovin? - Which teams will improve with cohesion?
Who's Holiday Plans Are Ruined? - Which teams should turn for the tank sooner than later?

This is kinda an answer to #1 & #3. I'm gonna have to agree with alot of folks here that Calvin Natt may be on the move. That said, I could also see Mo Cheeks moved as well. The Bulls have some nice WIN NOW talent on their team that they could easily cash in quickly (without waiting for Day 60 even) if they wanted to lean into the build that way. Might as well blow it up now and maybe secure anothe rpick in the upcoming draft before teams really know who they are.

Hopefully, the Buckies can continue to cruise on up the cohesion chain after an off-season shakeup. The Clippers also have been very impressive after their off-season moves.