EWA! What a rating. It stands for Estimated Wins Added, and it's pretty much flawless. There are no holes in this logic. If you have a high EWA, you are clearly an amazing player who is responsible for your team's success. While stats like PER and TS% have natural limitations, EWA is about one thing: Fryeing WINS, baby.
So after a turbulent off-season, I wanted to look at each team briefly and see how much change we should anticipate going into the season. So, in another flawless and perfect formula which has no issues or holes whatsoever, I am going to look at each team's biggest EWA earner last year, the biggest acquisition's EWA, and the highest EWA player they lost. Then I will use this flawless mathematical formula to predict each team's wins. Don't thank me. I'm just that generous.
NOTES TO CONSIDER: Rookies have no EWA from last year, so they won't factor in. So if you blew it up, expect your prediction to be even worse than you'd expect. Also, you may be thinking "Raby! You're only factoring in one addition and one subtraction. There's plenty of other transactions to consider. Your math won't be right!" And to that I say unto you: SHUT UP. THIS IS JUST FOR FUN! WHY DO YOU TRY TO POO POO EVERYTHING? JUST PLAY IN THE SPACE WITH ME!
Boston Celtics
Last Year's Record: 38-44
Highest EWA Last Year: Bernard King (28.2)
Biggest EWA Added: George T. Johnson (1.2)
Biggest EWA Lost: Bernard King (28.2)
MATH!: 38+1.2-28.2 = 11. 11-71
Conclusion: The Celtics are in trouble. They elected to go very young, and they added rookies who may have a positive EWA, but we won't know until after the season. As it stands, they're going to have an awful season. But that might mean Clyde Drexler, baby!
New Jersey Nets
Last Year's Record: 30-52
Highest EWA Last Year: Darryl Dawkins (25.9)
Biggest EWA Added: No One (0.0)
Biggest EWA Lost: Winford Boynes (2.1)
MATH!: 30 + 0 - 2.1 = 27.9. 28-54
Conclusion: Another team that added rookies and didn't do much else. Also they only have 6 players. So this prediction may not be that far off. At least Darryl is still there!
New York Knicks
Last Year's Record: 54-28
Highest EWA Last Year: Julius Erving (17.2)
Biggest EWA Added: David Greenwood (3.4)
Biggest EWA Lost: Buck Williams (14.3)
MATH!: 54 + 3.4 - 14.3 = 43.1. 43-39
Conclusion: The Knicks traded Buck Williams? Interesting. I didn't hear anyone talk about it.
Philadelphia 76ers
Last Year's Record: 24-58
Highest EWA Last Year: Larry Nance (13.6)
Biggest EWA Added: Norm Nixon (4.8)
Biggest EWA Lost: Wes Matthews (3.1)
MATH!: 24 + 4.8 - 3.1 = 25.7. 26-56
Conclusion: Progress! The Sixers are adding talent and their internal progress is great too. This number could be wrong...except it won't be because the formula is perfect.
Washington Bullets
Last Year's Record: 48-34
Highest EWA Last Year: Jack Sikma (9.7)
Biggest EWA Added: Buck Williams (14.3)
Biggest EWA Lost: John Drew (8.2)
MATH!: 48 + 14.3 - 8.2 = 54.1. 54-28
Conclusion: Bringing in Buck with an already strong team should be enough to win the division.
Atlanta Hawks
Last Year's Record: 26-56
Highest EWA Last Year: Dennis Johnson (12.9)
Biggest EWA Added: Billy Knight (8.7)
Biggest EWA Lost: Randy Smith (7.8)
MATH!: 26 + 8.7 - 7.8 = 26.9. 27-55
Conclusion: No surprise that the Syndicate takes over and a team immediately improves. I'm excited for the trash talk as that record gets higher and higher.
Chicago Bulls
Last Year's Record: 43-39
Highest EWA Last Year: Steve Johnson (13.9)
Biggest EWA Added: Kenny Higgs (-0.4)
Biggest EWA Lost: Don Buse (2.7)
MATH!: 43 + -0.4 - 2.7 = 39.9. 40-42
Conclusion: Obviously the biggest addition was Craig Hodges, who should be a valuable contributor right away. But that doesn't fit with the rules of the perfect formula, so the Bulls are in a freefall!
Cleveland Cavaliers
Last record: 52-30
Highest EWA Last Year: Sidney Moncrief (17.9)
Biggest EWA Added: Billy Ray Bates (3.5)
Biggest EWA Lost: Kenny Carr (9.7)
MATH!: 52 + 3.5 - 9.7 = 45.8. 46-36
Conclusion: Mahorn had a good TC, so maybe this will be wrong. But again. It won't.
Detroit Pistons
Last Year's Record: 16-66
Highest EWA Last Year: Andrew Toney (14.0)
Biggest EWA Added: No One (0.0)
Biggest EWA Lost: John Shumate (1.8)
MATH!: 16 + 0 - 1.8 = 14.2 14-68
Conclusion: I'm really mad at you, tbone. More than anyone so far, you're testing this perfect formula. What do you have, like 47 rookies?! That add ZERO VALUE IN MY FORMULA WHILE OBVIOUSLY BEING IMPORTANT TO YOUR TEAM?! Ugh. You're the worst. I hope you do go 14-68.
Indiana Pacers
Last Year's Record:53-29
Highest EWA Last Year: Adrian Dantley (27.5)
Biggest EWA Added: John Drew (8.2)
Biggest EWA Lost: Geoff Huston (2.2)
MATH!: 53 + 8.2 - 2.2 = 59. 59-23
Conclusion: Big improvement from a team that was already great. Two guys with 20+ EWA? And then Larry Smith got better? Hoo boy. Pauly's comin'.
Milwaukee Bucks
Last Year's Record: 60-22
Highest EWA Last Year: Robert Parish (25.7)
Biggest EWA Added: Eddie Johnson (7.8)
Biggest EWA Lost: Robert Parish (25.7)
MATH!: 60 + 7.8 - 25.7 = 42.1. 42-40
Conclusion: This kind of speaks to what Doug said on the podcast last night, that he blew up his team and still may be a playoff team in the East.
Okay, that's the Eastern conference. I may do the Western conference later, or I may never do it! Sorry West. The Northern Preference reigns supreme!