What to Watch: Sim 12

[WigNosy]

As we come down the "home stretch" there are some very close division races and I wanted to take a moment to point out some things I think will be very interesting to watch, be it player performance, specific games, and so forth. Let's get started, in the order they come to me!

1. Game of the Sim: 4/17/1982 - Nuggets at Kings

The Nuggets are two games back of the Kings in the loss column as we go into the final sim, and lead the season series 3 games to 2. The Nuggets have just three other games remaining. That means if they lose this game, regardless of how they do in their other games this sim, the best they can do is win out to tie with the Kings... and they'll lose the tiebreaker by virtue of head-to-head matchups. If they win this game, they close the gap to just one game and send things to second tiebreakers (which I think is division record; if the Nuggets win this game, they'll be 17-11 and the Kings would be 17-10 meaning the Kings can only lose as many times to the Rockets, Jazz, and Mavs as the Nuggets lose in their game at Houston on 4/17). Obviously, the Kings have the inside track here, but a Nuggets win could mean the Midwest division gets decided on the final day of the season!

2. The Houston Rockets' Depth Chart

The Rockets will be missing starting Center Artis Gilmore due to patellar tendinitis in both their 4/12 matchup at the Kings and their 4/13 matchup with the Nuggets. If 78# is able to pull a rabbit out of his hat he could spoil the division for either of these teams. Scott May stepped into the Center spot against the 76ers when Gilmore bowed out on 4/9 and had a +22 rating with 15 points and 6 boards in 30 minutes against Philly. Will the Nuggets and/or Kings adjust their lineups to try to take advantage of Gilmore's absence in the hopes they can lock in the division crown?

3. 4/21/1982 - Lakers at Clippers

This one isn't for playoff seeding, it's for pride. The Lakers and Clippers are currently tied in the standings and battling for 4th place in the Pacific. Reggie Theus is out for a couple of weeks with a broken cheekbone, but the Clippers have every incentive to tank this anyway - they own their own draft pick while the Lakers' pick sits in the hands of the Bullets. You know that this means San Diego's fanbase might just be eclipsed by Washington D.C. fans rooting for the Clippers from the opposite coast! The Lakers have three pretty tough games against playoff team this sim (Suns, Bucks, Cavaliers) while the Clippers schedule is a bit softer (Warriors and Pacers are the only playoff teams left on their docket) so this could be their last chance to affect the value of that pick that sits in Washington.

4. The Injury Report

It seems like every playoffs is defined by at least one injury. Last season, the Western Conference had at least three playoff teams dealing with major injuries during the playoffs (Magic Johnson of the Suns, Kevin Restani of the Spurs, and Bernard King of the Blazers). This season, all of the teams look pretty healthy (the handful of currently injured players on playoff teams will be day-to-day by the time the playoffs roll around), but you have to wonder that since most of the playoff seedings look pretty locked into place (only the Nuggets and Warriors are separated by 2 games are less and you figure the Nuggets will be pushing for the division crown if they can) if any teams will rest their starters, taking their "foot off the gas" in hopes of staying healthy - and if they don't, who might come up injured in the final sim of the regular season and how that will affect the playoff matchups.

5. The Supersonics' losing streak

Can the Supersonics reach the mythical 50-game mark on their losing streak? They've locked up the best lottery odds, so will we finally see Danny Ainge get some minutes again? And will that be enough to break the streak? With five of their final six games being against playoff teams, it seems like their best chance is either to have a playoff team rest its starters or to catch the injured Rockets (see above) for a surprise win.

6. Western Conference Player of the Month

This is to me the early bellwether in the MVP race. Magic Johnson and Moses Malone have been alternating wins, but the question is, "which will be the MVP?" Will it be Moses (36.1 ppg, 12 rpg, 2.7 apg, 1.6 bpg, 34.9 PER) or Magic (33.3 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 10.4 apg, 1.7 spg, 39.5 PER). Personally, my money is on Magic.

7. Rookie of the Year

I'm going to handicap this one based on the "VA" (Value Added) advanced metrics on each player's page since those seem to be tied to both PER and minutes played. Based on "Rookies of the Month"... Mark Aguirre is at 487.3 VA, Buck Williams 384.7, Larry Nance 357.3, Kelly Tripucka 433.1, Tom Chambers 393.9 and Steve Johnson 384.3 - which to me points to a runaway win for Mark Aguirre. Would be quite the showing for the #11 pick! Going back and comparing VA to draft position would be a really interesting article... which I hope someone else does, because I'm not about to do it!

8. Team Leaderboards

The margins in the Player leaderboards mean most of the major statistical categories are probably already locked up so not a lot of drama there. I do think there's some intrigue in the team leaderboards, though it's almost all at the bottom... will the Supersonics inch their average up from 99.7 points per game to over 100? Will the Trailblazers keep their team three-point shooting percentage under 10% (currently it's at .091)? Can the Bucks' stingy defense drop teams below an efficiency of 100 points per possession (they are sitting at 100.2 as of this writing)? And will the Warriors or the Celtics finish leading the league in lowest turnover percentage (both are tied at 14.8%) or will the Suns sneak in and take the crown (14.9%)?

And that's the list. Sadly, I couldn't make this a top-ten but I guess some areas have more than one thing I'm interested in, so maybe it counts? Anyway, good luck to everyone down the stretch!

[BigDaddyd8720]

Supersonics are fighting with themselves right now. On one hand, 50 game losing streak would be kinda cool. On the other hand, I wouldn't mind one more win just to hit the next threshold for 10 wins=2 points.

[greepleairport]

Supersonics are fighting with themselves right now. On one hand, 50 game losing streak would be kinda cool. On the other hand, I wouldn't mind one more win just to hit the next threshold for 10 wins=2 points.

Frye that, 50 straight losses is way more cool than 1pt.

[greepleairport]

~1100 words, +4pts
To all other GMs... see? It's not so rough to throw down some thoughts on sim league. You don't have to pod. You don't need music and commercials. You just need to clickety clack out some thoughts and wham! some much needed points added to your bank.

If you're as consistent as Wig, I might have to actually track how many you've earned to make sure you haven't gotten more than 25 in a season. Can you imagine? 25 pts for some clickety clack? Not bad, huh?

[BigDaddyd8720]

Supersonics are fighting with themselves right now. On one hand, 50 game losing streak would be kinda cool. On the other hand, I wouldn't mind one more win just to hit the next threshold for 10 wins=2 points.

Frye that, 50 straight losses is way more cool than 1pt.

I mean, I've always wanted to be part of history