Mike Lowry wrote: Tue Jan 21, 2025 5:44 pm
Eastern Conference Game 7s
Who wins?
While I would love to see more upsets, I'm going to have go with Boston and Indiana here.
Why?
Is it too simple to say "home court advantage?" Look at the playoffs so far...
Denver had homecourt advantage and beat Dallas.
Portland had homecourt advantage and beat L.A.
New Jersey did NOT have homecourt advantage and beat Milwaukee... but three of those wins came by a combined 4 points.
Cleveland had homecourt advantage and beat Chicago.
Denver did NOT have homecourt advantage and beat Phoenix... but Phoenix was missing league MVP Magic Johnson for the first four games.
Portland had homecourt advantage (by virtue of a better record; ignore the seeds) and beat San Antonio.
So we've seen 6 playoff series... the team with homecourt has won four of the six, and I would call missing the league MVP extenuating circumstances for Phoenix so I'd really call it 4 of 5 and throw out the Phoenix loss. That makes away teams 1-4 in playoff series. New Jersey got lucky in three one-possession wins against Milwaukee; but they are 1-6 at Boston this year (including the playoffs) and I just don't see it happening for them. Likewise, Cleveland is 1-5 at Indiana this season and those odds tell me to bet on Indy. I think we've all seen this year you can't discount home court and neither Cleveland nor New Jersey is scary on the road (Indy IS scary on the road).