Town Hall Sim 8

[Mike Lowry]

Why is the trade market locked?
Who do you think will land a trade before the deadline?
Will any team acquire a piece that will take them over the top?


Rules: 1 point if you give thoughtful answers, which I will award after the timer ends for responses. The timer ends for responses at the moment the corresponding week's Sim is run.

Note: Use approximately 5 sentences as your bare minimum for 1 point. If you write 3 long, complex sentences, you'll still get a point. If you write 5, 3 word sentences, you will not get a point. Don't @ me.

Due: Due by the deadline for sim 8

[WigNosy]

Why is the trade market locked?

I think it's not any single thing but a combination of factors, in approximately this order...

1. Bunching of teams means very few teams have incentive to sell. Only two teams are really "out of" the playoff chase (Atlanta and Philadelphia) and they are both heavy on "players with room to improve in the future" - nobody else is that interested in selling since they still feel they can make a jump up if they "buy."
2. The draft class is high-quality. There are 14 blue-potential players in the draft class and another 10 green-potential players. Since most teams have only four or so green+ potential players, it's very difficult to convince teams that it's a good idea to move a first-round pick. Since picks tend to be the biggest trade currency, it makes the market tight.

Factor 1 means there's very few sellers. Factor 2 means there are very few buyers. No sellers plus no buyers make for no trade market. But I think there's a third factor involved as well...

3. Every rotation player is still an owner's "most recent draft pick" - it's human nature to be invested in your choices and be loathe to admit you picked "wrong" right away. People are attached to the guys they've drafted and want to think they made good choices.

Who do you think will land a trade before the deadline?

I really don't know. I think we might see some shuffling of bench pieces, and I think odds are at least one team toward the bottom of the "playoff bunching" gets an offer they can't refuse and decides to take a deal and let go of their (slim) playoff hopes... think of New York/Washington in the East or San Diego/Seattle in the West (the Lakers made the Cartwright/Donaldson trade and since they can't trade Donaldson for 60 days, I don't see them making another big move before the deadline unless someone loves World B. Free).

Will any team acquire a piece that will take them over the top?

No, but mostly because I think Indiana is still on the inside track to win it and (1) nobody is going to trade them the piece credited with "taking them over the top" and (2) nobody else is willing to spend the capital it's going to take to acquire a difference-maker big enough to beat them ("take them over the top"). One or two teams might try, I just don't think it's going to get them over the top.

EDIT: Wrote this before reading the Sonics/Bucks trade. I guess Seattle in the West did decide they were going to drop out, and I have to admit, I think the Bucks' acquisition of Parish might just be enough to get them over the Pacers, but I'm still going to have to see it to believe it. On the other hand, I think now if the Pacers swing a trade to get a big man to match the Laimbeer/Parish combo in Milwaukee, they might be credited with that trade "taking them over the top." So maybe I'm already getting proven wrong...

[Mike Lowry]

Why is the trade market locked?
My belief aligns somewhat with Wig on this, the re-creation draft brought real parity to the league. No team mailed it in so badly that they can be considered a tear down. Also, there is a real lack of talent of the nature that we have become accustomed to seeing. Pieces that are fairly valuable in this climate have the potential of PBSL second round cuts. I think everyone is holding chips tightly until they understand what kind of value they actually have.
Who do you think will land a trade before the deadline?
My first answer was not the Seattle Supersonics trading Robert Parish!
But 1A may have been Doug with the old school Slime Zone.
I do think that trade will be the biggest blockbuster.
Robert Parish is a gem!

Will any team acquire a piece that will take them over the top?
I do not think the Parish move results in an immediate title lock, but it moves Milwaukee into prime position for another long term run.
I like the build that Chicago has brewing. I think they make a few moves that are no where near as splashy, but fit with the game plan they're working with and raise the trophy.

[greepleairport]

Why is the trade market locked?
Who do you think will land a trade before the deadline?
Will any team acquire a piece that will take them over the top?

Trading has been the capital upon which GMs hung their crown over 70+ seasons. In a brand new era, we're re-learning everything (besides Doug sliming (but it might not be the slimiest thing he's ever done (you'll have to ask Gary about that, probably))), and it's probably best to remain a bit tentative. I think we're all discovering our strengths and weaknesses, still. There is not a ton of room to improve, unless you trade away your draft capital for the foreseeable future, which is the only justification you can make for a huge acquisition.

I think trades might be done, honestly. I've had a few chats but nothing too substantive. We all need another big man, and thus the big men aren't going anywhere! Except Milwaukee! Which, if any deal takes a team over the top, it's this one, because the extra big man was acquired, and he was the best possibly big available! HUGE!

I might have the best player in the NPBSL, but I don't have the pieces to support him. Yet. I might have them, but they're not developed enough yet...

[IamQuailman]

Why is the trade market locked?
Who do you think will land a trade before the deadline?
Will any team acquire a piece that will take them over the top?

Trade market is locked outside of a handful of teams who've been actively shopping (looking at you & me, LTS). I agree with the other sentiments that teams are watching at waiting to see how the league plays out. That said, sometime you gotta be bold. I basically gave up 2 seasons of draft capital and the maximum number of points possible to make a big swing. Call it slime all you want, but supposedly 7 people were in contention for Parrish... but after my offer was submitted, 5 of those teams dipped out for the reason of"price too high". So clearly people thought I was overpaying by not anting up. On top of that... people may poopoo Greenwood, but he's going to be a surprise in the league, especially if Dave goes and trains him up.

I'm not sure Robert Parrish will take me to the promised land, but it gives me 3 27 year olds to compete now while developing Laimbeer for the long term reset. The way I constructed my team going into the season was to be a playoff team but not a contender. But some early success and seeing that I might be 1 piece away from contender level made me more inclined to make a big trade.

[greepleairport]

I gotta hand it to you Doug. If there were five other teams that were in talks for Parrish and balked at what you gave up for him?



I hope you win it all, ya ol bastard


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[Xist2Inspire]

Why is the trade market locked?

I'll echo the sentiment that since this is Season 1 of a brand-new era, GMs aren't really willing to take big swings, but I'll add that I don't think there's many GMs who know exactly what player(s) on their teams they want to build around, due to some players out- or under-performing pre-draft expectations. I would also say that parity is playing a factor. Given how good the top of this draft is, I would normally expect a bunch of teams, especially those with younger stars, to be sellers in order to maximize their draft odds. But, since things are so tight, we're instead seeing teams stick to their guns, figuring that making the playoffs and getting a solid g/g in the draft is a better deal than selling out for a b/b or g/b.

Who do you think will land a trade before the deadline?

I wouldn't be surprised to see Wig and Portland push for another deal. Landing another key piece would both help them keep pace with Phoenix and also further lower the value of the 1st they traded away. Also, keep an eye on Cleveland, Boston, and New Jersey - their playoff prospects have been drastically altered due to a trade I'm about to discuss.

Will any team acquire a piece that will take them over the top?

One could argue that it's already happened. Milwaukee's TOTY-worthy Robert Parish deal instantly makes them a major threat. The Parish/Laimbeer combo gives them the frontcourt beef to handle anyone in their division, and also gives them a fighting chance against the frontcourt final boss combo of KAJ/Hayes in Boston. I would not at all be surprised to see Milwaukee come out on top in the East, or at least make it to the conference finals, and that's all because of this move.