Who The Hell Cares What Mamba Thinks!?

[MexicanMamba]

Lately, a topic of conversation has been centered around the league’s parity (or lack thereof) and the steep learning curve that can take place within the halls of sim league. In my most recent Town Hall, I asked people to do some reflection and evaluation to try to pinpoint ways that these issues could take shape. For multiple reasons, not least of which is the great pursuit of more points (which will be needed more than ever if the current league voting holds steady since everyone with a mediocre blue potential player to trade is going to want 15 points minimum in trades), I have decided to dig into this topic a little more for my latest article.


I believe there are levels to this, but let’s mostly focus on how quickly new GMs are able to adapt and if there are ways to speed that process up or level the playing field. My first step was to go through and write down the GMs who I consider to be “newer” so that I could create some sort of baseline. What I realized is that I am getting really damn old, because the vast majority of the people that are still rookies in my mind have been around now for a sim decade (or two, in some cases).


The Lineup:


Hawks: 9th season

Raptors: 10th season

Kings: 20th season

Mavericks: 11th season

Pelicans: 3rd season

Timberwolves: 1st season

Nuggets: 3rd season

Cavaliers: 22nd season

Heat: 15th season

Bucks: 1st season


As you can see, there are really only 4 GMs on this list who are genuinely wet behind the ears (or breath smelling like similac, if you prefer) with two of those being in their rookie seasons. After that we have the Hawks creeping on a decade and then everyone else at or over a decade, with the Cavaliers peaking as they are cruising through their 22nd season as GM in Cleveland. For the sake of this article and finding ways to maximize this word count, I HAD planned to dive into all of these teams, but let’s be real, I don’t think anyone that has been at this game for nearly or well over 2 real years can be considered “new” at this point. Yes, this game does have a learning curve, but at that point it isn’t the learning curve holding you back, ya know?


What I will do is deep(er) dive the three true new GMs and look over how I feel they’ve attacked this season. In the Nuggets’ case, I will also do a brief overview of their 3 season sim career to this point. Lastly, I will look at their current roster and try to come up with a game plan that I would personally attempt to implement if I were them to maximize my fun in sim league moving forward.


Then if I have any words leftover, maybe I’ll give a sentence or two to the rest of the teams listed above. But probably not because I get long winded.


I will do this in order of seasons they’ve been here, starting with the newest and go up.



Let’s get to work!



Milwaukee Bucks


Current record: 22-51 (.301 career winning percentage)


With this being the Bucks first season, there is not much historical precedence to go off of. Unlike most of the GMs that I will discuss here, I cannot evaluate their past performances to compare to how they are currently doing business. What I do know is that they are still very much in the learning process, so much so that it is difficult to even say if they have any long-term prospects in the league. When a GM is so new, you also likely cannot attribute their decisions to their knowledge of the game since they are likely just going off of what their mentor (Nate in this case) says is right or wrong.


That all being said, the Bucks came in immediately and took some smart swings. They were able to lure AJ Blaze to Milwaukee amongst numerous other max bids and then quickly shifted him away for another young asset to help more with their rebuild. Trades have been the name of the game for the Bucks to this point, in fact, using it as a tool to figuring out what their future could potentially be. That process has absolutely not been drama free, of course, with the well publicized Kel’el Ware trade(s) coming together, falling apart, and coming back together. The initial deal for Ware that the Bucks agreed to without speaking it through with their mentor was truly awful as it brought absolutely nothing back that you’d hope to get by trading a genuine superstar. That miscommunication was rectified for the final version of thing, though still not an optimal return, granted there’s a likelihood that there were no better offers due to Ware’s “advanced” age.


Another trade, which I am currently not sure I like much in the long-term, is the Bucks trading Melvin Armentrout/Dino for Chane Behanan. Now, we will ignore Dino’s blue bump in training camp because there is no rhyme or reason so, those jumps and couldn’t have been anticipated. In a talent for talent view, it’s a good deal. Armentrout does not currently look like a budding superstar and Behanan is close to a 20-10 type of player, albeit on a poor roster. Behanan is a better player currently, and quite possibly always will be. Where my concern comes from is that Armentrout has 2 more seasons after this one on his rookie contract where Behanan will be hitting UFA immediately, and you just never know the types of offers you’ll have to fight off in the offseason unless you are willing to fully max a player. Armentrout gives the roster more trade and build flexibility since they are not even close to contending at this juncture.



What’s Next:


Even with the numerous deals made, I believe that the Bucks are still a franchise in flux and it will take some work to further clear the decks for a full rebuild. The first step before this season is complete is to decline the team options for both Boehm and Samples. Both of them are solid roleplayers on a good team, and there is an argument that it could be smart to keep their decent contracts one more season to try to churn them for some points to contenders, but GMs seem so precious about cap space before free agency that I don’t know if they would get decent offers for them. I would rather clear the books, especially with Behanan hitting UFA. The next step? Figure out what you want to offer for Behanan in the off-season. Since he is going into his 3rd contract, max dollars will not be easy to swallow, especially if you don’t believe in his max potential. I would choose a solid middleground number and offer it, but understand that someone could go overboard with their offer on the open market. I just know that while it would hurt to lose him, I also would rather let him walk than give top market money to him.


Next, the Bucks should quickly have Darrel Gupton and MAYBE even Robert Hannon on the trade block. Similar to Samples and Boehm, Gupton is a solid roleplayer on a good team which means he holds very little value for the Bucks and should find a new home. I would just be honest about the type of return you can expect to get from such a player and plan accordingly. Hannon is not a player I’d rush to move given the cheap contract, but if I could flip him for a better long-term asset, I would hop on the opportunity.


Finally, be mentally prepared for a long rebuild process. Having a top draft pick will certainly help in this. Lynch and Podziemski are solid, if not spectacular, assets that may ultimately be best used as trade chips in a season or two than franchise cornerstones. You want to hope the upcoming lotto treats you well and that you can be truly awful again the following season to earn another top flight asset and possibly earn points/assets for dealing other win-now pieces. Patience and understanding will be the key in Milwaukee.



Minnesota Timberwolves


Current record: 13-58 (.161 career winning percentage)



Another first season GM without anything to really draw from to compare progression notes. This franchise started the season with Carlos and I stewarding the entirety of the off-season and up to Day 60 when a full-time GM took over for their first major decision, that being trading of “aging” superstar Xue Hue to begin their rebuild in earnest. It is the kind of decision/move that can fully shape what the next 5 seasons or so look like for a new GM and organization.


Before getting to the choices made by the GM, let’s look at the few things that Carlos and I looked to do in the off-season to best set the organization on solid footing. The first big decision that we made in the first wave of free agency was to not offer a contract to Lenz Durrenberger. Yes, The German is still capable of being a functional player and producing at a good level, however this is a roster that we knew would be best served moving forward by being as bad as possible and getting younger. Instead, we focused on offers for Elton Harris and Chris Acker, both of which are functional starters/role players at 25-years-old and younger. Neither player are going to set the league on fire, but their contracts are also incredibly team friendly, giving them a ton of flexibility moving forward. Carlos and I also discussed trading Xue to the Suns prior to a GM taking over full-time, though at that point it was pre-TC when Xue was Purple/Purple and the return was going to be Aja Wilson. Since Aja could not be traded until Day 60 anyways and TC could sway things either direction, we agreed that the Wolves and Suns could both continue to look elsewhere for the best deals then come back together at Day 60 if needed/wanted. To be completely transparent, Xue Hue never got a single other offer for Xue while we were stewarding for them, so, I imagine the return they got back for him was also the highest offer of any of them as well. The rest of free agency was used to maximize cap space and financial flexibility for this season (salary dumps for assets were especially interesting).


This brings us to what has happened since the Wolves were taken over by a full-time GM. Xue was able to net two interesting rookie contract players in Benny Bridesmaid and Caitlyn Clark as part of a monster cluster of a 4-way deal that had big implications for most everyone involved. As mentioned, I think they did very well, and very likely had no other offers on the table, so getting two pieces that can either continue being developed or used as nice trade chips was a win considering how the league has tried devaluing stars like Xue. It was a strong start to a rebuild and one that should be commended.


Unfortunately, the Wolves showed their inexperience, and the inexperience of their mentor, by not at all capitalizing between Day 60 and the trade deadline on having $63mil in cap space in a league where some teams were desperate to shed contracts. Obviously, there was one trade posted that (thankfully, for the Wolves) was deleted and not followed through on, because they were taking on the bad contract of DeJuan Baker for absolutely nothing. Though that was a bad deal, it would have been very beneficial for a franchise in this position to pull something similar but to be sure to get assets to pull it off. I know, for instance, that Carlos attempted to send Jose Alvarado to the Wolves prior to time running short and shedding PeeWee to the (Goddamn) Pistons (and ruining the next 5 seasons of sim league). Now, what were all of the other particulars of this deal? I don’t know. Carlos couldn’t have given any points obviously, but perhaps he could have sent Jeremy Roach or Henry Widener to spice things up, or sent one of those to a 3rd team for points to re-direct to the Wolves instead. Yes, Alvarado obviously would then also take up $100mil next season as well, but the Wolves will not be in a position to compete for any high level winning next season anyways, so Alvarado (a virtual give away) would 100% be the best player that they could ever hope to grab in free agency this coming off-season. He could have played well next to Acker, Harris and a TC fueled Clark/Bridesmaid and at least earned a few more wins and/or awards points at the end of the season. That’s on top of Roach or Widener or Points and/or Pick(s). Even if not doing that specific deal, I have to imagine the Wolves could have done more than stand pat and earned some small goodies for drying up some of that $63mil in cap space. It’s a missed opportunity, for sure, but a learning experience for both mentor and mentee for future seasons in a similar circumstance.


What’s Next:


The TImberwolves are in a very advantageous position moving forward, in my opinion. They have a (hopefully) top draft pick coming in to continue to build up the war chest, a potential star young piece with the proper development (Bridesmaid), and a possible decent starter or trade piece (Clark). They also have, roughly, $150mil in cap space going into the off-season with no immediate RFAs or pending UFAs to look to bring back to chew any of that up. Acker should go all blue next TC and Harris is already there, with both being young and on team friendly contracts. So, the flexibility comes from the ability to continue to build slowly with young pieces and possibly trade Harris and/or Acker for more assets and be accepting of a few more awful seasons while fully re-stocking the assets. Or start using what you have to put some pieces around Harris/Acker to pump some wins in and see real progress.


Now, normally I would not be in a middleground mindset, however, I think that’s exactly where I would lean if I were guiding this franchise. I admit, a lot of it depends on the lotto luck in the off-season. If the lotto goes their way and they get the #1 pick? I likely would be more willing to lean towards patience. If the pick starts dropping and the prospect is not so fool proof, I look to start moving and shaking, to a degree.


First, I keep Elton Harris as one of the starting blocks. Not really a foundational piece, but a quality starting Center who is likely to continue to get better. Next, I am putting Caitlyn Clark with Acker’s contract to see how much better I can get in a trade. I’d be set to swap Clark out for the upcoming lotto pick and/or Benny if, say, some of the true superstars in the league become available (In the Sion James, Charley Quick, PeeWee Kirkland mold). If you put assets that make money in to grab your first big piece, you can still dip into free agency to try striking it rich to continue building the roster up.


Let’s say though that a bonafide superstar isn’t available and you don’t want to trade the 1st round pick or Bridesmaid. I would still look to put Clark and Acker together to get a quality player without sacrificing the cap space. Granted, for some franchises cap space isn’t as strong of an asset because impact free agents just won’t want to sign with you unless you are far and away the best offer (and not even always then). This is why I said I’d do the earlier mentioned Alvarado deal. That stuff is what you learn with trial and error though and hell, they could strike it rich. It’s just a bigger crapshoot than making trades is all.


I think the benefits of doing a push to get better, but without giving up the absolute top assets, are two-fold: A new GM is still learning and figuring out what is fun about the game. What I think everyone can agree on is that winning more games is more fun than losing more games. So, building a team that shows real progress and maybe fights for a playoff spot can help a new GM feel good about the game and their choices. Also, by not giving up Bridesmaid and their 1st, maybe they still feel good about the future as well with an easy pivot if trying to win doesn’t work as they hope. I dont recommend this strategy when you know the game and want a championship, but a new person who just wants to see progress? Play around with the edges for a while until you feel okay.





Denver Nuggets


Current record: 46-25 (.600 career winning percentage)



The Nuggets came into this league in a much different situation than the other two GMs in this article. I was the mentor of the last Nuggets GM and together we built up a championship contending roster (Even with Johnny Davis taking off to join my Lakers). Due to that winning reputation, I believe it was the GM’s first off-season where he was able to steal Justin Amos in free agency which led to a playoff run. Unfortunately, the Nuggets then suffered a major setback when Amen Thompson chose to run off to Washington right as the GM decided to make a major push for a title by adding Ron Harper Jr. That bit of disappointment led to a surprising Finals run. I still wonder how they would have fared against the Pistons last season if Thompson was on the roster.


This kind of early success for a GM can both be a gift and a curse. Winning and making it to a Finals that quickly has to be incredibly motivating and give you real juice to keep learning and playing. However, I wonder how much you get to learn by starting off in such an advantageous position because with the foundation built, you don’t have to make difficult decisions and you don’t see how they impact the team or your taxes.


It looks to me like we are only now getting into the portion of this GM’s sim career where important decisions of his will begin to impact how he has to play the game. The Kofi Blaq Jr. RFA decision will lead to decisions elsewhere on the roster. Contracts for players like Patrick and Ford and trading for Markham’s also could feel like an anchor firmly placed around the franchise’s neck with a tax reset being desperately needed in the coming off-season. It may also inform his decision on Harper’s team option and make Amos having a player option feel scary instead of exciting. The Nuggets are also sitting at the highest payroll in the league which will lead to a massive repeater tax bill while being in a bitter fight with 2 other teams for the division lead, nevermind that the Bulls and Spurs are still standing in their way for the conference as a whole.


The situation will take some finesse to navigate and I look forward to seeing how the Nuggets choose to attack it in the coming off-season and beyond.



What’s Next:


But how would I try to do it?



First, I would decline the team option for Ron Harper Jr. He has given you a great couple of seasons, but the ceiling of this team seems apparent, at least with the Pistons existing in their current form. With him next season, you’re staring at another ballooned $400+ mi salary status and that cannot happen, especially since you just traded for Britney Griner as well and if you want her back, it may take a max depending on how other people view her. I don’t see her as a max player, but in UFA all it takes is one person to think that she is.


Then, I’d shop Markham, who is on a solid salary that someone who is competing for a championship could view as a great stretch 4 option as a starter or 6th man role. Be flexible on the return, but saving money is also an asset, so keep that in mind. Also, if Amos accepts his player option, which I assume that he will, you put him on the block immediately after the season ends and see what kind of return he will net you. Keep in mind what similar players have netted in recent seasons (who weren’t expiring contracts) and be reasonable, but don’t be desperate to just give him away either. I’d certainly test the waters on Ford and Blaq and Patrick on the open market as well, but I am genuinely not sure what kind of interest they will generate given the length of their contracts and the age of Patrick and Ford specifically. I’d just be open-minded.


Two most important things: Shed salary and don’t be afraid to be terrible if you can be. You own your draft pick after this coming draft, so that is when you want to strategically place a bad season to either have a great young piece to rebuild with or to use as a trade chip to get back to your winning ways quickly, and that isn’t to speak for any assets you may be able to pull for the win now players you are able to move as well.




New Orleans Pelicans


Current record: 24 - 45 (.305 career winning percentage)



Another franchise that was taken over without much winning power in the immediate future. A few things I will only mention briefly because the GM has constantly discussed it himself, so he knows the error in his early ways. Just be careful about the bad contracts you give out in free agency. As you’ve seen, it can really sink your plans when you lack any financial flexibility or contracts that are easily traded. To this point, this has been a very consistent ship. Consistently bad, but still, consistent. This past off-season and season though has finally given this franchise some real juice and direction. The draft lotto and subsequent TC were the biggest factors in this. The Sim Gods smiled down on the Pelicans by giving them the #2 and #3 picks in the draft, in a draft that had a top 3 prospects that could all become true superstars in this league. Then TC came along and turned them even more formidable. Still, the learning curve still almost showed itself in the off-season when they were willing to trade some of their prime picks just to shed the Ayo contract. I think this is another case of some GMs overrating the value of cap space depending on their franchise’s current outlook, winning, and desirability to outside free agents. After having some trade discussions with the Pelicans personally, I think they will pick things up quickly, but will probably stumble a time or two on the way, but there’s nothing wrong with that. Just keep talking to the people around you that you trust and you’ll be okay. Another positive this off-season was the great contract that they got Tony Lee back for, who is a legit SG/SF in this league and can be a cog in a winning machine, but he will need a true Alpha in front of him eventually. Then in-season, the Pelicans finally were able to dump that Ayo contract while earning points and a much better player this season who they could theoretically try to bring back in the off-season for much cheaper (Banchero) if they want to try building a roster finally that’ll compete for a playoff spot.


In all, this is the franchise among these newer GMs that is best set-up for success in the future. It’ll be up to the GM to maximize all of the tools at his disposal.



What’s Next:



I am going to say it again surprisingly, but I think if I am this franchise, I am starting with a one foot in, one foot out approach. I am putting Longar Longar and Homer Pizarro on the no-trade list (***). Those two guys can be the foundation to a legit, championship build and really, neither are THAT far off from being able to contribute (if not star) to a team, compared to many rookies. After that though? Everything would be on the table.


I’d start by trying to put Contrill, Bender, or my upcoming 1st round pick with those chunk, green contracts (Kingsbury, Whitmore especially) to get a legit player next to Lee, and since those salaries would come out, you wouldn’t even destroy all of the precious salary cap space that has been painstakingly accrued, so you could still keep a max salary slot. Then with Lee and (insert starting player I just traded for) in tow, I attack RFA/UFA in search of the perfect 3rd and.or 4th banana to start fighting for a playoff spot, especially seeing as how it looks like we will be moving to 8 playoff seeds in each conference. If I struck out? I’d save my cap space going into UFA 2 and put the remaining stuff between Bender, Cottrill, 1st rounder into another trade and add the 3rd player that way. If you are then smart about your vet min additions (and possibly keep Ruhl and Lucky), you’d have a solid roster to win games, make the playoffs, and not sacrifice the two true star assets in the arsenal.


*** - The caveat exists here. First, I do the (likely) tiny training it would take to get Longar Longar to purple potential to up his trade value. Or just have his player page handy to show off to whoever you attempt to trade him to. Then, I let everyone know who has a bonafide STUD that needs to reset their tax situation that Longar Longar is available. Do the Pistons want to S&T PeeWee or Lauri after winning another title and get a top asset back? Are the Rockets ready to reset and S&T the league’s best player, Sion James? If so, don’t be scared and see what you can pull off. And if you could get two of those players with Longar and Pizarro? Now you’re talking about a worthwhile move to get rid of truly great assets. Just be very particular about who they may or may not go out for. You can keep them and be excited about their futures … just stating that there are people it makes sense to move them for, if you want to strike it HUGE.




Alright, I think I’ve rambled on more than enough at this point and feel free to take or ignore any or all of this advice. I just want the points, man.




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[Black Superman]

I'm newer than the cavs and kings?

[greepleairport]

4500+ words, +10pts

For the teams that got the Mamba analysis, I hope they read it and pull something from it. Great stuff.