Gman's Dead Wrong Non-Playoff Team Next Steps

[garbageman]

GDWNPTNS

This season started out with a lot of pundits thinking it was going to be a Lakers and Spurs finals with no questions asked and no reason to try and upset that hierarchy. There will be teams in Alpha that don’t make the playoffs with winning records, but the Lakers started out with an insane winning streak only to cool down and while they’ve almost got the conference after 11 sims, the Timberwolves are still close enough to delay the clinch until sim 12.

In Omega, the Suns ran away with the Loredo division, but the Kings made a surge late season to end with a decent winning record. The Rockets clinched the Pedraza division, but the Spurs, Pelicans, and Pistons are all still battling for the third seed, and the Hawks could theoretically get there, too, but that seems like a pipe dream.

So, the playoffs will be more interesting than the first half of the season would imply. And I’m sure that will be covered by a dead wrong playoff prediction media entry of some sort. But what about the other teams? I’ll take a look at each one and explain what, despite an early offseason, went right and what each team’s next step should be to head in the right direction.


Utah Jazz

At 2-74 (as of this writing), it’s possible that Gary has put together (or let fall apart) the team that will end with the worst record in PBSL history. Even the unmanned, accidental Supersonics of 2050 marked 7 wins. The good news is, there’s not really anywhere to go but up. It’s been awesome to see Gary get involved on the media front, and his articles this season plus the likely media entry of the year points he’ll get from them should finally get him out of tax jail.

I do worry that Gary loves writing weird articles but doesn’t really care so much about the, you know, basketball aspects of a sim basketball league, but I’d love to see him out of the tax and placing bids on UFA targets and doing things he could and should have been doing all along like insuring his players. So stepping up in the offseason is the next move from the Jazz, and as long as he does something with his tax freedom, I’ll consider that a big win.


Miami Heat

While they have almost 10x as many wins as the Jazz, the Heat are in a tough spot because they’re really deep in the tax without much they can keep. According to their internal accounting, they came into this season owing 216 points, and at the rate they’re earning points in previous seasons, it could take them a significant amount of time to make up that balance. Of course, if they really lean into it and start putting in the work to whittle down that balance, they could be out in two more seasons, but that would involve participation in every points making opportunity that’s available. That should be their next step. Turn everything into points. Take on contracts. Sell any asset you can get for however many points you can get for it. Answer the town halls if those start showing up again.

As for silver lining? It’s a little harder to pinpoint that. They do have all their picks and a clean slate going forward, so they can get really creative. If they’re down to be bad for a few years while paying off their tax, that’s 3 players in a row they can draft with a goal of being able to resign a guy like Close or Cambell if they stay top 2 in this draft. Aside from that, take on every bad contract you can. Think Josiah Blair, EJ Liddell, and Markus Ridenhour. They might be able to get more than just points.

Or, they can take a page out of LoCo’s playbook and keep trading their pick back for points. Dude made like 60 or 70 points in a single draft that way, and it was pretty fun.

This season though? I do like that they at least were willing to trade Forbes for points and a longer contract (and a player who added an estimated 12 wins). I would’ve liked to see them shop Dixson, too, because the Magic or someone probably would’ve taken him for a PG upgrade, but you can’t have everything. Onto next year.


Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks are about where they should be in this rebuild around Scoot Henderson and Dominitrix Johnson right behind Scoot. Those two players are the key to their future, and while they do have some financial roster missteps that they could have avoided, they’re all situations that I think the Mavs can get out of.

The main issue is that E.J. Liddell max. Liddell has some appealing attributes, but they haven’t ever translated to stats, and he’s probably around his statistical ceiling. But like I said a team ago, there are ways to get rid of long, bad contracts without derailing the future. With Parker and Breanna Stewart, the Mavs should be thinking about cashing in their chips to support Scoot and DJ. I like Kuminga’s flat 30mm contract for a super tall big who can score and rebound even if there are holes in his game (like PSD and BLK).

I also love Casey’s participation and attitude. I think he still has a lot to learn…especially when it comes to evaluating players beyond their color bands. But if he can work on that, realize the true value (or lack thereof) of some of his players, and not hold on too tight to prospects that aren’t ready to roll with his two best players, the future will be bright in Dallas.


Charlotte Bobcats

It’s great to see Dr. K get involved on the trade market, and it’s encouraging to see that—at least in a vacuum—all of the moves were pretty good. Well, most of them. I don’t think I’d do Spears for Walker again, but it’s still decent…he got Chane Behanan if that does anything for anyone. In any case, the participation was great, and in a lost season for Charlotte, they got some points and some picks and generally just moved some players around and overall came out alright. J.R. Smith was a great deal for them.

The next step is picking a direction, sticking with it, and making moves outside of a vacuum. They need to set a long term goal and start making moves only in service of that goal. It’s been a while since the Cats made a playoff run, and the last time they did, they were a playoff team 4 years running. They could try to recapture that and make more of a stand than just one series won, but to do that, they’ve got to pick the players that are going to get them there, build around them, and look a little harder at the league as a whole rather than role-players who performed well for them on depleted teams. The stats may look good, but if they’re only getting you 20 wins, they’re mirage stats. Recognize that, stop signing people to multi-year deals when nobody else in the league is going after those players, and progress will come.


Portland Trailblazers

They may have a losing record by design, but I think GroveStreet came back and hit the ground running with some solid GM moves. Moving Darius Garland was a huge victory, and Charley Quick had a great training camp, fresh off inking a max deal. Unfortunately, TC needed a couple of sacrifices to purple up Quick, and the most painful of which was Luke Hancock, whose contract is long and bad. With Bricker coming back in RFA to a likely max deal, it’s imperative to get rid of Hancock. They still have pieces they can use to do that (either pay someone points to take him or pair him with Hood-Schifino or his pick for a guy who can make him competitive with his big 3 of Quick, Blaze, and Bricker).

Getting under the tax apron this season was another big win for him, and if the Blazers can stay under the tax one more season and use that to structure their finances to be able to get into the tax for a run as a contender behind their big 3 in a few years. Might be easier said than done with money due to Bricker, but it’s definitely doable.

Maybe on top of that, if there’s anyone on the Pelicans worth trading them their pick back (or simply trading them the pick with Hancock’s salary), I know that Chad would be interested in having the ability to choose to tank, and I know that if the pick isn’t in his possession, he’s going to aim to make it as worthless as possible.


Golden State Warriors

After winning two championships in three finals trips, the Warriors were able to kickstart their rebuild by trading Alphonse Morelock for Kevin Cross and Markus Ridenhour for Kamari Brown, and those are two great pieces. They couldn’t complete the trifecta when disaster struck, and against all odds, Fabian Hub signed with the Detroit Pistons. Now they’re trying to tank to make their pick as low as possible, and aside from the Jazz, it’s a pretty close race for 2nd worst.

The Dubs know how to build a contender, so there’s not much advice to offer here, but I’m pretty sure that the Warriors are primed and ready to take some big swings in free agency. After declining Decottinges, Dieng, and Greg Jackson, they should be looking at almost 200mm to play with in the offseason. It’s always a situation that comes with tons of promise and equal opportunity for disappointment.


Orlando Magic

I’ll start this one off by saying that I do like that Nick tried to compete, and he made a bunch of moves (including a great offer to me I half regret not taking and a near-trape of the Hawks that only didn’t go through because the trade wasn’t legal). However, in the taste of your own medicine category of RFA, Walker Kessler and Okay Djamgouz were given contracts that were hard to match, especially in tandem. For what it’s worth, I probably would’ve let Walker do exactly that (walk), and would’ve been a little more ok with Djamgouz’s contract. I’m guessing that it was harder to get a sign and trade offer for Kessler than it was for Okay, so we’ll leave it at that.

I’m hoping to see (or have seen) a Clarence Martin team option decline. Nick’s gonna trade a lot naturally, but if he doesn’t, he’s got Chauncey Banks and Eddie Cruce to pay. The tricky thing with the Magic is I don’t know exactly what to do with them. I think I know what I would do, which would probably be to try and get some value back for Bridges and listen to JVG offers in hopes of getting a good one.

But so much of what I’d do depends on how UFA goes. Do you get Banks and Cruce back on good deals? Is there a better facilitator than Martin you can get? The Magic might be stuck running it back due to lack of better options, but if that’s the case, I’d either blow it up or pick my tweaks more carefully. Trades are fun, but if winning is a goal, the Magic shuffle the deck more than they play their actual cards.


Memphis Grizzlies

This isn’t K-100’s first rodeo in tax prison, but you can tell the time is taking its toll this season. The Grizzlies haven’t been too active in terms of trying to win despite their situation. Luckily, their bid will be almost up as they’ll be less than a hundred points away at the end of this season. Aside from picks, though, they have nobody that will help them in the long run except for cap space.

And that spells bad news for the Heat, because K-100 has a lot more experience grinding out points. He might target some shorter term bad contracts though, so no matter what kind of contracts you have, it’ll be a good offseason to take some risks on contracts.

I want to highlight that I liked the Vaughn Millsap trade a lot…maybe not so much for the Pacers since I think Saddiq Bey still has plenty of value…but I also don’t hate it much for the Pacers either. Milsap is a quality player, and what is 10 points really? I just don’t think it moved the needle.

For the Grizzlies, it’s probably the best return they could have asked for, but for me, I don’t have to sit here and watch bullshit like Vaughn Milsap making the all-star game as a C and if he sneaks his way into 6th man of the year after K-100 had him playing a ludicrous amount of time off the bench at every position, Pauly will get those points.

What’s next? Get out of the tax, put together a contender by seriously abusing the tax, win a championship (preferably beat the Johnny Davis era Lakers in 7), repeat.


Brooklyn Nets

The Nets outlook probably greatly depends on whether or not they’re able to get out of the tax by next offseason. I think it’s going to be close. They need about 35 points and have some points coming to them…general end of season stuff like DC attendance, an article that hasn’t been paid out yet, voting, and wins and player accolades that get totaled up at the end of the season. If it’s not enough to pay it off by the end of the season, they’ll surely be within reach for early offseason points by way of media entries or trades. I love that Ed’s written some media pieces on his players and put himself in a spot to end his tax prison stint.

But I think the next move, regardless of whether the Nets can pay their tax or not, is to trade Ron Harper, Jr. RHJ is a great player, but the height of his career is coming at a time when the Nets don’t need him. Since he’s pure offense, he’s going to be hurt faster than a big man or a point guard since quickness and jump are the first things to start declining and the most important qualities for RHJ’s game. He’ll still be good for a few seasons, but unless the Nets want to hit the ground running and trade away Fly Williams and Bones Hyland for win now pieces, this offseason might be the last chance to get a worthwhile deal for Harper Jr…and it won’t be nearly as good as the offers that have come in already.

Plus, moving Harper and holding off to compete might not be the most exciting things to do, but hopefully the Nets decide to build up a point bank again before putting themselves in a position where they want to be on the wrong side of the apron anytime soon.


Boston Celtics

Only time will tell if they stay the course, but the Celtics have Antonio Gates to build around and nobody who’s really on the same timeline as him right now. However, they do have some good prospects on their roster, and they made some good trades to get these prospects who can later be flipped for Gates-aged win-now teammates. Getting Spears for Walker was good. Getting Benfield and Lucas for Saul King…also good. Maybe in the offseason, they can get someone for Lucas who they can get someone else for later.

That seems to be the course they’re on, anyway. They’ve got Benfield and Griner up for RFA, and if I were Charlie, I’d hope at least one of them landed on a team with an intriguing sign and trade option. 2056 is probably still too early to go all the way, but in 2057, with the right mix of players around Gates, the Celtics could be dangerous. It’s too early to tell now what the landscape will look like in a couple seasons, but if the Celts can hold off until then and focus on making moves to make that their season to push in the chips, they’ll have a nice window to contend with aligned with Gates’ eventual emergence.

Charlie’s made the right moves so far to get them there, so it’s all about continuing down the same path.


Milwaukee Bucks

I didn’t see the Bucks landing here, but at 39-38, the Bucks are 1 Wizards win away from being shut out of the playoffs…and the Wizards play the Jazz in the final sim. I think the Bucks training Ebbe Clauer to purple on a 34mm contract (and also not trading him to Doug, who probably knew how close Clauer was) was a win in that it shows the Bucks how impactful a player they have. Training the three point current before making him untrainable would’ve been the only thing I would’ve done differently.

The problem with the Bucks is that they didn’t make any good moves in the offseason and losing Larry Williams in UFA hurt a lot. With Manley getting older and taking a hit and Krebs breaking his leg, the backcourt in Milwaukee was as thin as their starting frontcourt is dominating, and that’s why they sit in 10th, just above .500 in the Alpha Conference.

If you’re Milwaukee, what can you really do? Well, for one, you can trade Wembanyama over the offseason. Either split him into two players to add some important depth to your team or trade him for a downgrade and a prospect or two (depending on how far of a downgrade). What’s unsettling to me is that this is probably already in the works, and it’s probably going to send Wemby somewhere gut wrenching.

That might seem like the best thing for the Bucks, but with two more seasons of Ebbe Clauer at 34mm, you want to use that before he’s taking up a max slot. Then, you hope beyond hope that Ware doesn’t turn down your supermax. But as we saw with Fabian Hub, even on a team coming off two chips and a Finals appearance, nothing is guaranteed. A .500 team that’s been carried solely by an unstoppable frontcourt might have to make some contingency plans, and one of those should be potentially selling everything high to rebuild, especially if they can’t bring in some fresh blood in UFA to help improve immediately.


Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavs aren’t eliminated yet, but it’s still a statistically tough road. With washes in Utah, we’ll say that the Cavs need to otherwise win out and the Wiz need to otherwise lose out, or it’s going to a tiebreaker. The Wizards have a tougher schedule, but they just need to win a couple games to clinch since they have a 3-1 season lead against the Cavs to own the tiebreaker. If we take the Jazz game as a given win, the easiest team they face beyond that is Golden State. And if they can’t beat the Warriors in the bay, they’ll have to get one win from either the Pistons, Pacers, or Pelicans (in DC) or steal one from the Raptors in Toronto.

Meanwhile, the Cavs have a few should-win games, and then two games against the Bulls and one against the Suns that are all basically must-win games. The Cavs have not beaten either of those teams in 4 tries this season, so either their just massively due, or those are tough matches.

Still, at 40-36 in a very competitive conference, the Cavs can feel good about their record. The one thing they can’t feel good about is miscalculating their cuts and ending up over the apron by a negligible margin. They tried sneaking out of it after the deadline, but alas, it was too late.

The Cavs find themselves in a very interesting offseason position. They’ll have Jonathan Isaac coming back on what will almost definitely be a max, and they might have Jason Marotta coming back (but not on anything resembling a big contract if they know what’s good for them). With Gordon and Pearson on expiring contracts and getting on in years, it’s definitely time to move on and build around Isaac and Vassell. With so much cap space beyond them, the Cavs are going to have to play it safe as they should definitely get under the apron to avoid a repeater tax when they’re competitive and definitely go all the way in after that.

The Cavs have gone halfway in, giving up Primo Spears for Karlo Pearson to non-enthralling results, but that’s not because it was a bad move…it’s because the Cavs hedged and didn’t cash in enough pieces for a true contender. In the preseason presser, I asked what different approach the Cavs were trying this season, and they answered about being okay with going into the tax. I liked that attitude even if they aborted mission (and weren’t really too into the tax to begin with), but I want to see more.

The Cavs have been in the league for a while now, and I think it’s just about time for them to really go all in—one way or the other. I don’t think next season is the season for it, but it should be coming as soon as Vassell turns blue.

[IamQuailman]

Milwaukee Bucks

I didn’t see the Bucks landing here, but at 39-38, the Bucks are 1 Wizards win away from being shut out of the playoffs…and the Wizards play the Jazz in the final sim. I think the Bucks training Ebbe Clauer to purple on a 34mm contract (and also not trading him to Doug, who probably knew how close Clauer was) was a win in that it shows the Bucks how impactful a player they have. Training the three point current before making him untrainable would’ve been the only thing I would’ve done differently.

I see we got some chatty cathies, huh. I knew he was good (former Piston, I was bummed when i didnt bring him back), but i didn't know he was THAT good that all he needed was a athleticism training to be purp lol

If you’re Milwaukee, what can you really do? Well, for one, you can trade Wembanyama over the offseason. Either split him into two players to add some important depth to your team or trade him for a downgrade and a prospect or two (depending on how far of a downgrade). What’s unsettling to me is that this is probably already in the works, and it’s probably going to send Wemby somewhere gut wrenching.

Keeping it in the family?

[greepleairport]

Doug's still focused on the Bucks lol

3500+ words, +10pts
good advices