The Lotto Teams of S55: Trade or Keep? A Shadow GM's Hot Takes

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As the regular season winds down, half of the league returns to its postseason slumber before the real action begins this offseason - the only time all ‘active’ GMs are active! Even with yet another lackluster draft lottery class, how these teams choose to manage their picks can have tremendous impact on the league for seasons to come.

And if they keep their picks? Well… who should they pick?

1 Trailblazers

Hot Take:

Ajburman4 had the PBSL world in the palm of his hands when Lu Dort was around. Every GM with any kind of trade package came to him to make an offer, and when it finally came time for Dort’s departure? He got Ousmane Dieng and Kyle Kuric. A #1 and a #3. They’re both fine, I guess, and a couple prospects for a two-time MVP is fair.

But why didn’t more happen in Portland before Dort left? The Blazers had a loaded backcourt in 2041 with Dort, Sneed, not-yet-dead Schumann and Kidd - either of whom could have been moved for a fairly elite big man to support a developing Justin Patton - and they at least advance past the 76ers in a close semi-finals matchup…but that’s essentially what they did in 2042, picking up Bulter and finishing with a losing record and missing the playoffs. 2043 was the final straw when the additions of Nickolas Lynch and Tasmin Mitchell just didn’t cut it. So like no GM I’ve ever seen, they started a bunch of red players, redshirted a purple two-time reigning MVP and almost guarantee the #1 pick in 2045. So what to do with it?

Trade or Keep?

Keep.

Portland has absolutely nothing going for itself now, and it’s exactly where they want to be. With their future stock in Shittu, Dieng and Kuric, Carmelo Williams suddenly looks like the odd man out in a rebuild, someone to trade for yesteryears’ higher picks so that the talent grows together. All of their talent is in the middle of the lineup, though, the 2-4 spots, so ideally they look for a stud center or point guard with their #1 pick, but true to recent history, those don’t really exist anymore. (And when they do, they go and die in Miami (RIP Simon Lenz).)

Pick: whoever, doesn’t matter

So who is Portland’s best option? It really doesn’t matter. They could autopick Alphonse Morlock and do just fine with a swing 3-4, a defensive Delmar Jr. if you will. But if they stick with their young core three, adding Ned Lomax for some presence on the boards would not hurt either. They’ll definitely need some rebounding support if this is their squad. So yeah, I just talked myself into Ned Lomax being a perfect fit for them.

Final Pick: Ned Lomax

2 Hawks

Hot take:

Perennial PBSL slush fund, the Atlanta Hawks are finishing the year with some decent past-their-prime vets like Oturu, Shank, Miguel Thomas, Chris Ridley and Chicago’s formerly perennial favorite Silky Johnson. So, they actually find themselves with double-digit wins this year. And, with Portland putting forth their best scrap and Utah sitting just as vacant as the Hawks during the regular season, they might actually fall to the 3rd or 4th spot in the draft this year. And after a decade of slush funding, why not tune in and play again? If Loco actually added up all these points accrued from a decade of slush funding, he might be able to do things again. And wouldn’t that be great to see some activity again in the ATL!

Anyway, when the offseason begins, ATL will have 5 players and $100mil plus in cap. All of their youth is crowded in the back court at the 2-3 spots, so anything they can do to bolster their talent in the front court (or the elusive point guard spot) will be helpful.

Trade or Keep?

Keep.

Pick: Ned Lomax (Alphonse Morelock if Ned is not available)

Really, Atlanta has no use for another shooting guard. Most of the league does not need another freaking shooting guard, so expect one of these two to land in ATL if they hold their #2 draft spot. If they fall down in the lottery, I might even consider bailing on the blue potential players altogether for a Jose Robbins ( C ) or Jerrell Sauer, the only even-okay option for a young point guard this year.

Just.. please.. Whatever you do.. Insure insure insure!!!! (RIP Albert Hotchkiss)

3 Jazz

Hot take:

It will be great to see digiskunk reactivate for a couple of weeks to do a couple of things before disappearing again. I mean, I hope he doesn’t disappear for S56 regular season fun. He has paid off his tax, has two young stud power forwards (something the other high lotto squads lack), and three future great SG’s to choose from. So, let’s get right to it.

Trade or Keep?

Keep.

Pick: Darrin Alston or Chris Thompson (whichever is still available)

These two are the most legit blue prospects of the three. Chris Thompson may develop into a playmaker someday but Darrin Alston may be more well-rounded. Of the two, Thompson may develop some playmaking ability which any team can use. Might never sit naturally in a playmaking role, but in a pinch that many GMs find themselves in on offense, he can make it work. But if Thompson is gone, Allston can at least rebound, which seems to be a more common feature in shooting guards in this modern PBSL era.

4 Pelicans

Hot Take:

A new GM, yahoo! Welcome aboard, Mr. A-Tua! You have an exciting young team to develop as your team’s GM did not leave you totally in the lurch. Obi’s contract will clear next year and you can pull him back on a more reasonable deal or shoot for the absolute stars in free agency while Dirks and Veloz grow up a bit. New Orleans has many seasons ahead before Veloz can run point serviceably, and a couple paid trainings could get him there more quickly. Conventional wisdom would have you choose between pulling in a few good vets to get your win counts up or let your team suffer hoping for a better draft class another year out, but you can really just have fun doing whatever you want until Dirks, Veloz and your high S55 lottery pick are 24 or 25 years old doing real things on the court for you.

Keep or Trade?

Keep.

Pick: Darrin Alston or Chris Thompson (whichever is still available)

There will only be 1 blue potential player left (that doesn’t look fake blue) come draft time, and that’s whoever Atlanta doesn’t take. It might better serve the Pelicans to pick up Alston, though, all things being equal. Ken Dirks is sitting hilariously at point on the roster today, but no PG with 38 QKN is viable, so he’s really looking at a PF here (swing SF if his QKN increases by at least 20 for some reason) who can develop his own offense, which is cool. If he’s battling down low, though, with nowhere to go? Allston can swing around to a corner three spot and drill it. Dirks and Allston could make a really nice pair.

5 Heat

Hot Take:

Hot dump. That’s what Miami has become: what most of us leave behind in the toilet when we are unwell. There is nothing good happening in Miami, and when something good does happen (Simon Lenz), it gets stuck in the hot dump and croaks. So, not that this will happen or anything but it would be great if…

Keep or Trade?

Trade.

Let’s not let another prospect rot away in Miami. If they could Louie-fy things and take on bad contracts at least? It would be an improvement. Losing He Hor was an absolute disaster, but if you don’t care, then you just don’t care. Some of us do care, though, and would love that 5 pick! But there is currently no incentive for Miami to take on any kind of quality piece for this pick, so here this pick will stay, and hopefully it’s an autopick for Raphael Gordon who, as far as I can tell, is a fake blue anyway. A fast one, but a fake one nonetheless. What kinda shooting guard can’t shoot a 3 anyway???

6 Rockets

Hot Take:

I worry about Houston. 78# has been a present GM who just cannot get things to go his way. I fear that 78# will make some moves in the offseason (Jordan Johnson was a win), but little good will come of it (another losing year because no one else noteworthy came to Houston with JJ), and 78# will just be driven toward the life of another disinterested GM. I’ve done business with 78# many times and enjoyed our chats, so for as long as he’s interested in hanging around, I love having him here!

Keep or Trade?

Keep.

Presuming that all the blue potential guys are gone, I think there are some fun green potential guys worth a look that, in my opinion, definitely have the potential to become b/b some day. Let’s start with:

Pick: Robert Xiong or Jerrell Sauer

Whoever has the option to pick between Raphael Gordon and Mark Baran, aside from the obvious color difference, I think would be better suited to pick Mark Baran if it’s an SG you seek. But Robert Xiong has more upside than both in my opinion. Like a misguided Danny Campbell who doesn’t think he can be a Danny Campbell… but he can dribble! DC can’t dribble. Or pass (alas!).

Alternatively, for a league continually devoid of solid PGs, the Rockets could benefit from the 6th seed by grabbing the only PG worth a damn in Jerrell Sauer. Not that he’s anything to write home about - not at all - but when teams are forced to run offense with swing SF / SGs with C HND and C PAS, Jerrell might be the right piece to have in your back pocket, especially while the team sits in limbo. So… yeah.

Final Pick: Jerrell Sauer

7 Timberwolves

Hot take:

Raby’s gone but not forgotten. His pick is gone too. Kinda negates what this article is all about, because he already traded his pick, because he’s going the Nick Malone route of absent GM’ing: activating for trade offers only, even when they’re not that great. The only top-level holdover is Gary Loredo: part of JNR’s final hail mary to get reinvested in PBSL, and boy did it fizzle quickly. Delmar and Loredo just were not enough to make a solid run. However, Angel Hayashi, Aaron Nesmith, Moses Moody, Matisse Thybulle and a surprise showing from Greg Brown make for an interesting bunch. They’re a little spread out in terms of peak forms for each player, but even if Raby only shows up for okay deals (and hopefully insurance), this team will never be a bottom feeding dumpster of hot trash. Solid vet GM’ing that never pulled all the way out left this team in decent shape for someone else to pick up, or for Raby to come back when he’s ready.

Keep or Trade?

Already traded.

Pick: Clippers select Robert Xiong (rename Bo Mamba)

8 Cavaliers

Hot take:

[Expletive deleted] [expletive deleted]. I have half a mind to cut a deal with Cleveland where I’m the one getting traped just so jlmarines can finally enjoy some fruits of his labor in the form of some Ws. Say what you will about his friends screwing him over, jlm is here playing and having a good time. For every meme posted, jlm has like 3 gifs minimum - more than a lot of us can say. And honestly, I think a lot of us may have given up by now if we were in his shoes, because this much losing can really take its toll, especially when you strike out in UFA and lose your best player as he’s set to have his best year as a full purple/purple player.

But I digress. There’s still a decent amount of blue in Cleveland, but most of that blue has spent at least some time this year on IR. Eloy missed 22 games so far. Scottie more than 30 and almost a full 20 games out for Cam Ron Fletcher thus far. Really tough time to be a Cavs fan in early 2045, but I do believe that jlm will stick with this until things get better. And I’m sure they will. And if he ever wants to ask someone aside from his ‘friends’ if a trade is bs or not, I’m sure I speak for a lot of GMs when I say hit me up any time for a consult. And if we ever get close to striking a deal, I would encourage you to talk to another GM too so you don’t accept anything you might later regret.

Keep or Trade?

Already traded.

Pick: 76ers select … I dunno… Alfredo Menendez or some bs because picks are useless in Philly for the next decade or so anyway.

I liked the addition of Cassius Winston as a win now move for the Cavs, in principle, but its value disappeared along with BBJr. Unfortunately when you make a big move like this, it’s hard to backtrack quickly and lessen the long term damage, but I think jlm can learn and grow from this. Sometimes you push all your chips in and come up empty in PBSL, even when it’s theoretically the right move. Sending good vibes out to Cleveland (if not a lopsided deal in his favor).

9 Raptors

Hot take:

Soundwave tripped, fell, and landed on a team that doesn’t totally suck butt. After losing key talent like Myke Henry and Talen Horton-Tucker, that should have ended all hope in Toronto. But even if Soundwave can’t hold on to his best players, he has held on to Marcel McAlister for many years, who’s good now that a guy like Jalen Suggs has stepped up and Markus Ridenhour can kinda sorta run an offense now, too. Heck, they’re cracking 20 wins for the first time since 2038! Much win!

Keep or Trade?

Keep.

This team isn’t ready to make a run, but he has players in the right places. Evan Mobley is a pretty tough guy at PF, but he can’t rebound, so I would be looking for a serviceable center who can fill that void.

Pick: Jose Robbins

Robbins isn’t anything too special, but the guy can get boards on day 1. Figure in a couple decent training camps and maybe he can dunk and defend a little bit, too, but if the Raptors have a well balanced lineup where some pick up the slack of others’ weak areas, you could be looking at a ~30 win team next year. Not too shabby after losing Henry, THT and getting only 5 wins last year!

10 Suns

Hot take:

What happened? Contenders to losers overnight. Too bad. There are plenty of decent players here, but none are jiving together. BBJr. is their best player today, sure, but that contract will yield diminishing returns. I’m sure BlackSuperman has seen other GMs say ‘trade now for assets!’ and then he chose to put Gabauer on the block. Thing is, BBJr. is less valuable without someone like Gabauer holding this down in the post, and he’s not going to garner the same kind of return in assets like BBJr. would. As an admittedly emotional GM myself, if I lost Ronnie Reynolds AND Chadwick Dangerfield but struck gold with BBJr.? I might have a hard time letting BBJr. go, too. Going from 2 superstars to 1 to none? That’s rough. Especially when you were an early favorite heading into S55…

Keep or Trade?

Trade.

Trade up! See if you can’t talk the Blazers or Pelicans into trading back so they land someone like BBJr. and you can draft someone you’re excited to see develop into a homegrown bonafide superstar. Ronny Asher is your best player for keeping (if you keep anyone in a rebuild - and I do believe a rebuild is in order), so pick a player that would play well with him. You don’t need Ned Lomax, but maybe Morelock would play well with Asher? I dunno, but I think a little creativity could help Phoenix bounce back in a big way, sooner or later.

11 76ers

Hot take:

No take. Pay your taxes.

Keep or Trade?

Trade for points. Write some articles too maybe?

12 Knicks

Hot take:

I’m eating my words as much as anyone when it comes to the S55 Knicks. I look at their roster and see a sub .500 team, and yet they’re well over .500 in a very tough conference and even tougher division. They would be a 6 seed in Omega, no problem! I don’t even know what’s working so well for Dr K this year, but I gotta hand it to him. We all laughed, and he collected some solid wins. Kudos to you, sir.

Keep or Trade?

No sense in recommending trading. To Dr. K, trading is akin to point-pumping steroids in 2045’s PBSL, so keep it. I guess.

Pick: Bryant Delano (?)

I really don’t know. I don’t understand how the Knicks work. The Phase system is beyond me, and the y/y role playing strategy, just… I don’t see it. But I concede that, this year, something is working. The Knicks have no one running offense that should be running offense after Len Bias’s contract expires (maybe renew his contract for a more reasonable price?). So, I put my money on Bryant Delano, the only other PG with B PAS in the draft. There’s nothing great about the guy, and running an offense is a role he could play potentially…but I’m sure I got the role-playing system in New York all wrong, too! Maybe Douglas Dunkin (Donuts) is the guy!

Actually yeah, Douglas Dunkin (Donuts) has got to go to New York.

Final Pick: Douglas Dunkin Donuts FTW

13 Pacers

Hot take:

Blow it up and start over. Get under the tax. Keep or trade this pick. I don’t think it matters too much either way, but the most recent playoff build has expired. While it was a fun run, the time has come.

Keep or Trade?

Trade if you can acquire 10 pts or a future pick or something. Just make some bold changes in Indiana this year and shock the PBSL world, Pauly.

Anyway, that’s a lot of words about fake basketball. I hope you enjoyed it (or ctrl+f’d your way to stuff you might care about)!

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3100+ words, 10pts