The Lazy Statistician Presents: So You Want To Be A PBSL Champion?

[garbageman]

Whether you're still chasing your first ring or looking to add to your collection, PBSL history holds a ton of useful information that you can use to your advantage. But with all the numbers out there on the historical PBSL pages to sift through, it'd be a mild inconvenience to compile and analyze all that data. I know because I've done it--all for another riveting installment of the Lazy Statistician. I could've done it more thoroughly, but you don't get extra points for having air tight methodology, you get points for more words, and as far as words go, "magnificence" is worth the same amount of points as "turd" and half as many points as the phrase "big turd."

On that note, it's time to dig in to the data and get our hands dirty. First, the data set I used was from every season going back to 2010. Why 2010? Well, that was my first season in the league, and anything before that is a bunch of old fogeys murmuring on about walking uphill both ways. Unfortunately, the S48 archive got messed up somehow, so I was not able to compile the stats for that season's championship Nuggets. The other 31 teams are there in full.

I took a look at the regular season differential rank in all of the major categories tracked for each championship team. I noted where each championship team ranked in the league for each category and then averaged all of the rankings to see which seemed most important to the average championship team, and which were least important.

CATEGORIES BY DIFFERENTIAL


14. Free Throw Percentage
AVERAGE CHAMPION RANK: 11.935
NUMBER OF TIMES IN BOTTOM HALF: 9
NUMBER OF TIMES CHAMP LED LEAGUE: 1

To clarify something right off the bat, there were variable numbers of teams over the past 32 seasons. The average championship is a raw average and not weighted by number of teams in the league at the time because A) I'm a lazy statistician, and B) The chances that it would affect relative ranks was so low (albeit not theoretically impossible), that I didn't think it would matter. For example, if teams were really good at FT's in the 26 team era, but really bad at them in the 30 team era, and teams were really bad at the 13th place category in the 26 team era, but really good in the 30 team era, FT% might get bumped up a notch, but I don't care and neither should you.

In any case, I've definitely seen a few series and had chats with a few different GMs about how if only one team had made more of their free throws, they wouldn't have lost a pivotal game. Sure, that might be true...there are a number of tiny factors you can point to in order to explain a tough loss. But the bottom line is that if you're putting together a championship team, free throw percentage is probably the last thing you should worry about.

13. Offensive Rebounds
AVERAGE CHAMPION RANK: 11.194
NUMBER OF TIMES IN BOTTOM HALF: 11
NUMBER OF TIMES CHAMP LED LEAGUE: 4

It's not so much that offensive rebounding is unimportant, but it's surely not as important as other metrics. It's the statistic that found the championship teams in the bottom half of the league in terms of differential the most times (at 11), but this could be a little misleading. Good teams will make baskets at a much higher clip than their opponents (as you'll see if you keep reading), so the opposing teams will have much more opportunity to clean up the offensive boards and tighten up that differential. Shotmaking ability and defense are probably more important to look at overall, but don't go benching your best bet at second chance points just becase of some dumb article no matter how MEOTY-worthy it is.

12. Fouls
AVERAGE CHAMPION RANK: 9.968
LOWER HALF: 9
BEST IN LEAGUE: 3

Alright, by now, you've got the hang of the sub-header metrics enough where I can shorten NUMBER OF TIMES IN BOTTOM HALF to LOWER HALF and NUMBER OF TIMES CHAMP LET LEAGUE to BEST IN LEAGUE, and you'll get the picture. Anyway, we all know it's frustrating when your best guy can't stay on the court for 30 minutes. And let the records show that 4 of the 9 times that the championship team ranked in the bottom half was from the same GM--me. Thus, my team-building strategy alone could have a lot to do with fouls ranking so low. However, taking the Bulls out of the equation only swaps it with the 11th ranked stat. Whatever the case, you probably don't need to worry TOO much about players who get in foul trouble as long as they produce everywhere else. It's quality, not quantity, when it comes to floor time or Doug banging Tani's mum (for all you old fogeys out there).

11. Steals
AVERAGE CHAMPION RANK: 8.968
LOWER HALF: 6
BEST IN LEAGUE: 4

AND...

10. Turnovers
AVERAGE CHAMPION RANK: 8
LOWER HALF: 4
BEST IN LEAGUE: 2

I'm going to lump steals and turnovers together because they're very closely related, especially when it comes to differential. It's no surprise they landed so close to each other on the board here. If you get a lot of steals, you force a lot of turnovers from the other team, and if you cough the ball up a lot, chances are, you're getting nicked in steal differential. No matter! It's not as important to championship teams as the categories yet to come in this article. They say that defense wins championships, and I'll say it later in this article, but purely looking at differential isn't telling the whole story. We'll get to that, but I'm on a role hear with this differential breakdown, so keep your dang pants on.

9. 3-point %
AVERAGE CHAMPION RANK: 7.387
LOWER HALF: 6
BEST IN LEAGUE: 7

This is the first stat where there were more championship teams that were the best in the league in three point differential than there were championship teams in the lower half. It surprises me a little that the three point percentage differential isn't a little bit higher, but that's because of the parallel modern NBA and because there were a few teams explicitly built around the 3-ball in PBSL that made their runs pretty noteworthy (S25 Warriors was the first example of a team that really made this stand out for me, and they only ranked number 2). Ryan's back to back championship teams in the West/Duren era also went back to back in leading the league in three-point differential, and BDJ helped both the Kings and the Warriors to three-point differential leading championship seasons with his floor spacing (and their team building). Still, there are 8 more important differentials to have working in your favor.

8. Blocks
AVERAGE CHAMPION RANK: 6.194
LOWER HALF: 2
BEST IN LEAGUE: 7

Though it's not the be-all-end-all, it's telling that the ratio between LOWER HALF and BEST IN LEAGUE widens. However, the position mid-list here shows that having a strong presence protecting the rim is just one of many ways you can prioritize strengths on a championship team. Having a guy like DeAndre Jordan can win you a championship, like it did for the 2018-2019 Magic, and not having one can lose you a series like when the 2019-2020 Bobcats were up 3-1 until DJ got injured and they lost three straight. Of course, on the other side of the coin, it helps to not get blocked, and that feeds into a lot of the upcoming metrics on this list.

6. (TIE) FG% and Assists
ACR: 5.419
LH: 2 (FG%) and 3 (AST)
BiL: 6 (FG%) and 7 (AST)

As we roll down the list, we see further abbreviations and our first tie, although if I had to make a decision, I'd put FG% slightly ahead of assists. The two teams that ranked in the lower half of FG% (the S34 Knicks nd S39 Nuggets) both excelled in other areas--assists actually being one of them. Turnovers, however, might have saved both of these teams. You can't miss shots AND give the ball away. They were also highly ranked in terms of three point differential. This just goes to show that if you have the right combo of less important metrics, you can slide a little on more important ones with a different team build. Because of simplified interpretations of stats (and maybe rightfully so), having a team full of 100 INS dudes that can pound inside and create their own offense is a highly effective strategy that has been employed by many championship teams.

As for dimes, it makes sense that a team packed with good players can benefit by sharing the ball (even if the league isn't chock full of A PAS ratings). One of the three teams that ranked in the lower half of assists was the 2017-2018 Detroit Pistons who were led by Anthony Davis...the single most dominant force in PBSL since 2010. No passing needed there. But if you're actually building a TEAM that's stocked at multiple spots, go ahead and ramp up your ball movement.

5. Defensive Rebounds
ACR: 5.161
LH: 2
BiL: 8

Coming in twice as highly ranked as offensive rebounds is their defensive counterpart. Now, as explained earlier, I'd expect this since good teams will make more baskets (giving their opponents less opportunites for total defensive rebounds) while preventing their opponents from making them (giving themselves more opportunities on the defensive glass). It's not rocket science, here. It's lazy statistics. The two teams with the lower half differentials in this category? You guessed it...the Knicks and Nuggets teams mentioned above. They ranked in the bottom half in FG%, so their opponents had more rebounding opportunities. Everything's the blanket.

3. (TIE) Points Per Shot
ACR: 4.968
LH: 1
BiL: 6

This is one of my favorite metrics, and unfortunately, it's not one that outputs on a per player basis on the team page. And again, it's the 2028-2029 Nuggets here who ranked in the lower half. The team featured Nikola Jokic (who was also on that Knicks team that was ranking low in important categories). The Nuggets ranked 20th in the first category where the championship team averages better than 5th in the league. A true anomoly. Given that some of the other scoring categories are still to come, it just highlights the importance of efficient offense. I probably didn't need to compile a bunch of spreadsheets to tell you that.

3. (TIE) Total Rebounds
ACR: 4.968
LH: 1
BiL: 8

In a tie for third, I think total rebounds tells more of a story than offensive or defensive rebounds alone, albeit I think rebound percentage is a truer indicator (spoiler alert: so I look at that later!). A lot of teams ranked very highly for rebounding, and digging deeper into the trend shows teams whose guards help out on the boards: Westbrook, Hunt, BDJ, Bronny James, More Stats = Better Than.

2. Adjusted FG%
ACR: 4
LH: 1
BiL: 9

I'm not sure exactly how FG% is adjusted here...some mathematical balancing for 3 pointers and free throws, I'm sure, but the point is, you want to make all of them. You want to put the ball in the basket as much as possible, by any means necessary. The only team ranking in the lower half was the 2015-2016 New Orleans Pelicans...a team that pushed to compete very heavily towards the trade deadline by putting together a package for defensive p/p Ron Artest. So take that team with an asterisk as they were only in championship contendership mode on the back 9.

1. Points
ACR: 2.806
LH: 0
BiL: 12

It's no surprise here. The name of the game is putting more points in the basket than the other team. But still, the numbers here are startlingly high. The average championship rank is better than 3rd place in the league. No team has ever ranked--not only in the bottom half--but worse than 9th overall and won a ring (and that team was the aforementioned Pelicans). If you're surprised by points being at the top of this list, you might want to rethink your team building strategy. Get guys who can score. Get guys who can stop the other team from scoring. Voila.









...BUT THAT'S NOT ALL!

CATEGORIES BY TEAM LEADER PERCENTAGE

So what we've looked at so far provided us with perhaps more questions than insight. The raw differential numbers provide skewed results when any stat is looked at individually instead of as a whole. So I looked at all of the percentage based team leader versions of the above stats to see if those told a different story.

UNRANKED: Pace
ACR: 11.613
LH: 11
BiL: 2

Ok...so this category isn't officially something I was looking at, so the ACR means nothing. I was just curious to see whether past champs were fast paced or slow and steady, and it's all over the map, which is a good sign that it all comes down to what's best for your team. I was unable to lazily eyeball any correlation between pace and the other stats.

9. Turnover Percentage
ACR: 11.613
LH: 12
BiL: 2

If pace doesn't really count and is just a bonus stat I threw in here out of curiosity, it's kind of telling that turnover percentage has the same ACR as pace. With a whopping 12 teams in the bottom half, you don't need a handle on handles to decorate your hands with rings. It should, however, be noted that only 4 of those 12 teams were in the bottom half in turnover differential, and 7 of the 12 rank #1 overall in the metric from this category that ranks #1 overall.

8. Offensive Rebound Percentage
ACR: 9.677
LH: 7
BiL: 2

There's some lesson to be found here. While offensive rebound differential ranked as fairly unimportant to championship success, the relatively low ranking for offensive rebound percentage confirms to me that you can forego targeting putback kings in lieu of not missing the shots in the first place. That's the route championship teams seem to be taking according to this lazy analysis.

7. Steal Percentage
ACR: 8.355
LH: 6
BiL: 4

Another confirming ranking, differential and percentage aren't straying too far from each other in this analysis, however it seems like steal percentage is sneaking away from turnover percentage in the rankings. My comments in the previous section stand, so defense still wins championships.

6. Defensive Rebound Percentage
ACR: 7.226
LH: 4
BiL: 6

As I thought earlier, the average ranks between defensive and offensive rebound percentage are a lot closer than the ranks between their differentials. Championship hopefuls still should go harder on the defensive end because there's no point in playing tough D if you can't collect the boards.

5. Block Percentage
ACR: 6.871
LH: 5
BiL: 5

Blocks are still important here, and they directly cause the other team's FG% to lower, so you can see how they are important. However, with matching 5's in LH and BiL, you can see how differential overstates that effect. It should be noted that most of the lowest half finises--not only in blocks, and especially in the most important categories--are occurring earlier and earlier on. Thus, teams as a whole might be getting more dominant relative to the rest of the league, but that's another lazy article for another lazy time.

4. Effective FG%
ACR: 5.968
LH: 1
BiL: 5

What's the difference between Effective FG% and Adjusted FG%? I couldn't tell you, but they're both pretty important and somehow not the same. No matter what kind of shot you're taking, the more you make it, the better. And though Michael Scott said Wayne Gretzky said you only miss 100% of the shots you don't take, shot selection is important. Take the ones you're likeliest to make, and you'll be poised for a deep run.

3. Rebound Percentage
ACR: 5.194
LH: 1
BiL: 6

The most important of all the measurable stats (percentage-wise, anyway) is total rebounds. Whether you're getting them on offense or defense, you'll be much better if you're getting them on both. Only team to finish in the bottom half was that anomalous Knicks team, who weren't necessarily championship level adept at making shots or grabbing boards, but were the best at keeping the ball and the best at taking the ball in terms of both differential and percentage. I would strongly RECOMMEND, however, getting some good rebounders on your championship team...not only in the frontcourt, but as a team ideology.

2. Offensive Efficiency
ACR: 4.903
LH: 2
BiL: 7

Welp, we're down to the efficiencies, and even at the #2 spot, with an average of better than 5th best league-wide, it's offensive efficiency! A couple teams (S37 Bucks and S47 Wizards) have finished in the bottom half here, but to win that ring, they needed to be #1 on the defensive end. But for the most part, to win a championship, you have to be pretty dang efficient on both ends of the court. In any case, that leaves us with one more category...

1. Defensive Efficiency
ACR: 4.065
LH: 0
BiL: 12

Like I said I'd say before, defense wins championships. No team has ever won a championship (since 2010) with a defensive efficiency rank in the bottom half. 12 teams have been #1 in the league in this aspect and won a ring. 23/31 teams were in the top 5 here. If your defense is good, but not great, you can win with a dominant offense, but I wouldn't bet on it. There are plenty of scorers out there. Get the guys that can help you on the defensive end.




And just for some insurance words, we've pointed out the teams that have finished in the lowest half of certain statistics, here are the unofficial 5 most dominant (according to their combined rankings in both differential and percentage) champions of the last 32 seasons (save for the season the Nuggets won that didn't get properly archived, but they were kind of a surprising champion anyway that season):

5. S36 Denver Nuggets (http://pbsl.ijbl.net/2025/rosters/roster11.htm)
RECORD: 67-15

Anchored by the phenomenal backcourt of West and Duren, the 2025-2026 Nuggets were repeat champions this season. They didn't have a dominant front court piece...instead having a troupe of foul-prone bigs who could play defense and grab boards in a next man up style. The next season, the Nuggets team had an even more dominant record but failed to bring home a three-peat championship.

4. S38 Milwaukee Bucks (http://pbsl.ijbl.net/2027/rosters/roster20.htm)
RECORD: 66-16

Though their regular season record was a full game behind the 5 team, the Bucks had a similar build: backcourt pieces that could score in Baratheon, De'Aaron Fox, and Cliff Paugh (the latter two both only b/p at the time) and a strong frontcourt rotation that fouled a lot less (featuring JJJ and Thomas Knecht with Aubrey Bloomfield, Daniel West, and Alec Sargeant). They took down the defending champion Spurs in a gentleman's sweep.

3. S41 Orlando Magic (http://pbsl.ijbl.net/2030/rosters/roster25.htm)
RECORD: 75-7

Though third on this list, the 2030-2031 Orlando Magic boast the best record of all time. They had prime Boban, prime Josh Jackson, b/p Bronny, and Acuna at PG. Their C was Ivica Zubac, a y/y role player amid other yellow options that perhaps brought down their stats. They gentleman's swept their way through the playoffs (save a full sweep against the Wiz), beating a 74-8 Bulls team in 5.

2. S31 Chicago Bulls (http://pbsl.ijbl.net/2020/rosters/roster8.htm)
RECORD: 66-16

It's not that the 2020 Chicago Bulls were better than the 75-7 Magic, it's probably that the rest of the league wasn't as strong. In 2030, the rich were super rich and the poor were super poor, either gearing up to compete against a repeating Boban-led Magic or staying the hell away. In 2020, the field was a little more open, but a Bulls team that added Russell Westbrook and OPJ to a young core that could rebound pretty evenly across the floor--and having a defensive stopper like Bismack Biyombo, led to a dominant team respective to that season.

1. S40 Orlando Magic (http://pbsl.ijbl.net/2029/rosters/roster25.htm)
RECORD: 75-7

So justice is served here. This is basically the 75-7 Magic one season prior--same starting lineup except they had James McCormick at C and Ivica Zubac sitting his yellow-yellow ass on the bench. These guys still had an amazingly dominant record and a near perfect playoff run--only letting the Nuggets best them in the 4th game of the Finals. This team was as close as you can get to perfection...or maybe as close as anyone has gotten. Follow these tips, and maybe you'll see your team making an argument for the best team that's been in PBSL since Garbageman got here!


One last note--all 5 of those teams ranked 1st in the league in defensive efficiency. If you want to dig even deeper into the stats than I did, check it here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

[MexicanMamba]

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