Mamba's Dead Wrong Playoff Predictions

[MexicanMamba]

Word count: Way more than 3,000

After a season away, now feels like the right time to get back to some playoff predictions doomed to fail. Mostly because I hadn’t come up with any better article ideas by now, so, recycled trash for the lot of you!

Just getting to the playoff bracket was an interesting ride this season. Both conferences had races for the 7th seeds which lasted until the final sims, keepings thing hot until the very end. For a moment, it looked like the tax-strapped 76ers were on their way to a playoff berth but some good ole self-sabotage helped them get bad enough to dip below the pack. Going into the final 2 sims, the Raby-Wolves were only one game back from the Cavaliers for the final spot in the Omega conference but would peter out down the stretch. Congratulations to the Cavs for finally making a legit playoff run for the first time under the newest management team, and by doing it be legitimately finishing strong (8-2 with a 5-game win streak to end the season.

In Alpha, there were 9 teams with a record above .500, leading to there being a season long game of musical chairs with the playoff seedings and playoff participants. There was a time that the Chicago Bulls were as high as the 4 or 5 seed (I believe). When Carlos lost Dorian Whitley for an extended period of time in the middle of the season, I was convinced that Ed’s Nets would take advantage and make a run for the division, not just a playoff spot. The Nuggets still held onto the 3 seed after trading He Hor to the Suns, leaving them with a toothless zombie horde in the backcourt. The 5-9 spots in Alpha were separated by 4-games and in the end, the final spot was won by the Suns, as they were able to overcome an injury to one of their key players (Ronny Asher) down the stretch thanks to an admirable effort by his backup, Simon Lenz, and key in-season pick-up, He Hor. Quite surprising to see the Bulls and Nets out of the tournament this season, but the game can be a mysterious entity once in a while.

With the stage set, let’s get in there and make some predictions.




ALPHA


ROUND ONE




(1) Los Angeles Clippers vs. BYE

Looking at the injury report and it would seem as though the BYE has already gained an upper hand with Lu Dort’s untimely and unfortunate 34-day knee dislocation. This put my upset alert level up a few notches, that’s for sure. Even fully healthy, I likely was not going to be able to genuinely predict a championship for my squad, but that injury makes it even less likely. If the guys do tread water for a while, Dort would come back for the Finals at least, but that’s looking ahead too far.


(2) San Antonio Spurs vs. (7) Phoenix Suns

The Series:

4-1, Spurs.

11/29/46 Suns (85) @ Spurs (111)
12/3/46 Spurs (140) @ Suns (128)
12/18/46 Suns (112) @ Spurs (138)
3/1/47 Spurs (109) @ Suns (107)
3/9/47 Spurs (115) @ Suns (134)

The Rundown:

The first thing to do is completely throw away the first game, as that was the only game between the teams where the Suns did not have He Hor on the roster and it is no coincidence that it was the only game in which they couldn’t score any points at all. Even taking that game out however, we are left staring at a 3-1 series lead for the Spurs. The Suns have had to combat cohesion issues all season, but especially once the trade to bring He Hor in was finalized and I assumed that they would begin to play better once the roster got the opportunity to gel more. Overall, you can see that they did that, due to their strong finish and playoff appearance. You also can see that the games later in the season were a 2-point loss and a 19-point win for the Suns. However, even that cannot be taken at face value because the Spurs were missing Dorian Whitley due to injury. In the two games that these teams played each other with He Hor and Dorian Whitley, the Spurs were 2-0 with Whitley averaging 30-7-7 and two player of the game awards while playing Point Guard opposite of He Hor.

The Prediction:

I feel like the Suns can make this more interesting of a game than typical 2 vs. 7 matchups typically offers. The Suns’ cohesion has gotten better, they’re healthy and Asher and He Hor is a great inside-out duo to build an offense and defense around. However, they are probably one more off-season worth of moves away from being able to really compete given that they are starting Landon Nicks and have little depth on the bench outside of Simon Lenz. Dorian Whitley being back for the Spurs also gives them their best scorer back in the fold, whose size seemed to give He Hor fits in the two games against each other. I think the Suns take a game or two and show a strong foundation they have built to make a real push soon, but ultimately fade away.


SPURS (4-2)


(3) Denver Nuggets vs. (6) Dallas Mavericks


The Series:

3-2, Nuggets

10/31/46 Nuggets (108) @ Mavericks (122)
11/26/46 Nuggets (130) @ Mavericks (103)
3/10/47 Mavericks (109) @ Nuggets (113)
3/30/47 Mavericks (110) @ Nuggets (114)
4/19/47 Nuggets (107) @ Mavericks (117)

The Rundown:

There is a lot of variety in this season series. The dates are spread out, so you can get a good feel of each team at different parts of the season. He Hor was traded away after the second game between them (and the Nuggets still won 2 home games). There was only one road team to win in this series, and that was when He Hor still played in Denver, so, not a very reliable result to fall back on. Without him, those games in Denver were incredibly close calls and could have easily gone the other way. The key for Dallas is to get Zeke Nnaji going. In their two wins in this series, Nnaji was the player of the game. Obviously, his offense is important, but he is also a great matchup against Makur Maker on defense and can at least make his day more difficult (though Maker had a triple double in one of Nnaji’s player of the game performances). For the Nuggets, its all about putting the backcourt in the least number of spots to have to do anything important while maximizing Cornett, Maker and Bey-Bey.

The Prediction:

With homecourt advantage, the smart money is on the Nuggets to pull this one out. Though the Mavericks have the deeper team, the Nuggets probably have the best two players involved in the series in Bey and Maker. I think the Mavericks’ biggest issue is that they do not really have anyone playing Point Guard that can do much more than take up space, and this has been a recurring problem for this roster. The bright side is, the Nuggets’ PG position looks significantly worse. I do believe that the Mavericks can pull off the upset here and wouldn’t be surprised if it happened. However, I’ll take homecourt advantage for now.


NUGGETS, 4-3


(4) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (5) New York Knicks

The Series:

3-1, Lakers

11/10/46 Knicks (106) @ Lakers (128)
11/21/46 Lakers (112) @ Knicks (102)
11/30/46 Knicks (104) @ Lakers (112)
1/21/47 Lakers (93) @ Knicks (120)

The Rundown:

The one thing that I can say with certainty about these teams this season is that the Knicks were not fond of playing against the Lakers in November. Three of their four games happened that month, all losses by the Knicks, and they were 6-11 at that point in the season. All three of those games went relatively the same way, as well. Big men are the dominant ones in this series. Douglas Haun even won a player of the game award in a loss once. Haun and Aubrey Shores just traded POTG honors in these games. Shores might be the big equalizer between these two teams, as he probably is the league’s best Green/Green player. I am not sure exactly how much to weigh the final game of the series, which happened two months after the three November clashes. It was the Knicks only win, and a big one at that. The Knicks obviously got much better as the season progressed, while the Lakers were more even throughout the season.

The Prediction:

I trust Haun and Leonardo more than I trust Shores and Leathers, though maybe that is just me continuing to be enslaved to colors, because Shores consistently performs at an incredibly high level. Even with more trust in the Knick duo, I cannot say the same about their backcourt/wings. I genuinely am not much of a fan of any of them in New York, whereas I know Garland is growing into a high-end Point Guard and Quackenbush tends to explode every so often, giving a jolt to an offense that needs it. So, Shores does just enough to minimize the impact of Haun and Leonardo, and Quackenbush has a game or two that swings things towards Los Angeles.



LAKERS, 4-2.




OMEGA


ROUND ONE




(1) Milwaukee Bucks vs. BYE

Another day, another Doug. After making it to the Finals last season, our resident Quail-Man finds himself ready for another run at a championship. Though the benefactor of some Pistons injuries down the stretch, Doug’s Bucks are a worthy #1 overall seed regardless of the context. The simputer agrees as well, by giving Doug the GM of the Year award and Zaire Wade a third straight Defensive Player of the Year.


(2) Sacramento Kings vs. (7) Cleveland Cavaliers

The Series:

4-1, Cavaliers

11/16/46 Cavaliers (113) @ Kings (111)
1/21/47 Kings (81) @ Cavaliers (101)
3/4/47 Kings (96) @ Cavaliers (103)
3/17/47 Cavaliers (98) @ Kings (113)
4/5/47 Kings (103) @ Cavaliers (115)

The Rundown:

In the seasons that I’ve written this article, I do not think I’ve come across a season series that made less sense to me. For obvious reasons these 2 vs. 7 playoff matchups tend to lean heavily to the higher seed, and yet, these barely-scraping-by Cavs gave the Kings the business four times this season. More surprisingly, this was not a situation where all the games came early in the season when the higher seed was getting their legs underneath them. These were all spread out very well and yet the Cavs were consistently the better team, carried by great performances by Scottie Barnes and Eloy Tilton. The Kings have the newly-crowned MVP on their side, but during the regular season, he did not dominate this matchup like I would have suspected. In fact, he was downright awful in one loss, going 0-15 from the 3-point line. Perhaps it was a mix of size and athleticism that gave the Cavaliers an advantage, as well as an active GM who worked game plan strategies all season.

The Prediction:

I would love to be able to make a bold prediction here and pick the Cavs to spice things up. That result would also spice up that meme thread even more than usual. However, there are two things that are working against the Cavs at this point. The first is that while they had the “home court advantage” in the regular season, that will not be the case in the playoffs, so the Cavs must put their below average road success to the test. Secondly, and maybe more importantly, Eloy Tilton will not be available for this series. Throughout the life of this contract, Tilton has been a disappointment, however he has been good-to-great against the Kings this season, routinely working Tubbs over in their matchups and taking home 2 player of the game awards in the process. That’s a big hit to a team that will need every advantage that it can get.



KINGS, 4-1



(3) Detroit Pistons vs. (6) Oklahoma City Thunder

The Series:

3-2, Pistons

11/4/46 Pistons (152) @ Thunder (143)
12/1/46 Thunder (76) @ Pistons (125)
12/15/46 Thunder (114) @ Pistons (100)
1/14/47 Thunder (86) @ Pistons (126)
3/28/47 Pistons (87) @ Thunder (117)

The Rundown:

The first game between these two teams was ridiculous, with 295 points scored between the two teams. A sign that things would be exciting throughout the season? Not exactly, since the Pistons dominated the next game before the Thunder gave the Pistons a rare home loss. Unfortunately, soon after that, the Thunder began going into semi tank-mode to go a tad younger around Blakeney and Cuevas. The Thunder did pull out one dominate win at the end of the season, but it was at home, playing a severely injury-depleted Pistons roster.

The Prediction:

I don’t anticipate this being much of a series since the Thunder gave up being as competitive as they could be midway through. With Jones and Caruso back fully healthy, the Pistons are probably the best team in the league and I look for them to show out against the Thunder-Charlie.



PISTONS, 4-0


(4) Washington Wizard vs. (5) Orlando Magic

The Series:

4-0, Wizards

1/2/47 Magic (107) @ Wizards (116)
1/5/47 Wizards (130) @ Magic (125)
1/20/47 Magic (112) @ Wizards (130)
2/12/47 Wizards (86) @ Magic (84)

The Rundown:

Kinda one-sided isn’t it? The games in Washington were by decent margins and the games in Florida were razor thin. Perhaps demanding a recount could fix this problem? Or a magic spell or two? The Wizards have had a few different iterations of their roster through the season but still managed to win 50-games (and making their draft pick they got back from Detroit a middling addition). For Orlando, Kory Manley is dynamic but there is nobody else performing at high enough a level. Mitchell Robinson is not who he used to be, Adkison has never developed enough and some other key players are simply high-upside youth that need more seasoning. The Wizards currently have Yandell as the veteran anchor and Paul Cassell still able to play at a high-level. Add-in the bonus of Bojorquez and I can see why they have and should continue to have an edge.

The Prediction:

I don’t believe this will be a sweep, but I have seen no reason to assume that the Magic will make up the ground to win this series unless Mitchell Robinson can turn back the clock to (probably) end his Magic run on a high note.



WIZARDS, 4-2




ALPHA


ROUND TWO




(1) Los Angeles Clippers vs. (4) Los Angeles Lakers

The Series:

3-1, Clippers

12/4/46 Clippers (116) @ Lakers (125)
1/22/47 Lakers (89) @ Clippers (115)
2/18/47 Clippers (119) @ Lakers (102)
4/11/47 Lakers (94) @ Clippers (104)

The Rundown:

The sad, Dumbo in clown makeup sized elephant in the room is that Dort will be missing. In the 4-game series in this year’s hallway series, Dort averaged 21.7 points, 8.5 assists, 9.5 rebounds and that production will be gone. This obviously bodes well for the upset minded Lakers. Shores was rock-solid in 3 of the 4 games and the catalyst in the one win by them. Danny Campbell gives up a lot of size against Shores, which is where things even out a bit considering how much better DC is in pretty much every talent attribute. Garland struggled mightily with Dort on the court, so it will be very interesting to see how he is able to take advantage of whoever I decide on starting in place of Lu. As I mentioned before as well, Quackenbush is a bit of a wild card and can go off at unexpected times, though I feel good about Dong Bone matching or surpassing him given they are very similar in size, style and athleticism.

The Prediction:

I can’t predict myself to go out in my first series, even if my pessimistic side may poke at me to do so. Losing Dort is a massive loss, no doubt, but I think Campbell will be ready to take on more of a load offensively and I have enough depth at the guard/wing spots to be able to withstand the pushback by the Lakers, who aren’t particularly deep. Garland might be the key for them, but I’ll trust my guys like Deni and Pearson to stand up to him adequately.



CLIPPERS, 4-2



(2) San Antonio Spurs vs. (3) Denver Nuggets

The Series:

2-2

1/16/47 Nuggets (77) @ Spurs (91)
2/12/47 Nuggets (122) @ Spurs (102)
2/18/47 Spurs (104) @ Nuggets (107)
3/26/47 Spurs (107) @ Nuggets (104)

The Rundown:

The Spurs won 59 games while missing their best scorer for 31 games. Dorian Whitley is back, and the Spurs are looking like the favorite to come out of the Alpha … if they can find any consistency against the Nuggets, who gave them fits most of the season. Whitley only played in 1 game of this series, but he had very little impact in the 3/26 road win against the Nuggets. Difficult to pull much useful information from that. Both teams beating the other 107-104 is a fun stat that I just felt like mentioning here. The Nuggets have one avenue to victory, and that is that front court being dominate every single night. They can hope their guards can just get in Whitley’s way a little bit on his way to the basket but cannot expect much more than that.

The Prediction:

I suspect Whitley will be more dominant over the course of a playoff series than he was in that only game he played against the Nuggets to this point. Credit to Ryan’s squad though because they have kept the Spurs far below their season average scoring totals in every game (110 vs the Nuggets, 120 on the season), which is impressive to do with or without Whitley. If the Nuggets can continue that pace and get a few explosions from that front court, I might be eating some crow here as we look at a big upset. My first point makes me lean to the Spurs though, until proven otherwise that Whitley won’t be huge.



SPURS, 4-3




OMEGA

ROUND TWO




(1) Milwaukee Bucks vs. (4) Washington Wizards

The Series:

3-1, Bucks

11/14/46 Wizards (94) @ Bucks (114)
12/27/46 Bucks (124) @ Wizards (98)
3/19/47 Bucks (127) @ Wizards (134)
4/15/47 Wizards (86) @ Bucks (114)

The Rundown:

The Bucks are a rough match-up for everyone, but they proved incredibly difficult for the Wizards. Yes, the Wizards did pull out a win at home, but it took a herculean offensive effort to do it. The other three games, the Wizards just could not score against this Bucks defense, and understandably so. The Wizards are already a mediocre offensive team on the season (109.7 points per game, good for 19th in the league) but in 3 of the 4 against Milwaukee, that number tumbled to 92. The Bucks just have to be who they are, dominate on both sides of the court.

The Prediction:

Easy money in Milwaukee in this one.

BUCKS, 4-0


(2) Sacramento Kings vs. (3) Detroit Pistons

The Series:

3-2, Kings

11/22/46 Kings (116) @ Pistons (120)
12/7/46 Pistons (126) @ Kings (128)
12/22/46 Pistons (110) @ Kings (121)
4/1/47 Pistons (106) @ Kings (108)
4/17/47 Kings (104) @ Pistons (122)

The Rundown:

The Kings proved to be difficult for the Pistons throughout the season, though that was partly due to having more home games and some injuries at the end. The Kings, much like the Nuggets, are built on only 3 players and really, it is more like 2 because Tubbs is not going to make much of a difference either way. It helps when one of your few good players are the MVP, but I am not convinced that the Kings know how to fully unleash Hayes in a way to really take full advantage of him. The Pistons, now healthy again, are either 1A or 1B in the league, but without the injury bug is likely my 1A. The Kings won two home games in this series by 2 points each, which I do not feel bodes well for their chances here in the playoffs. Caruso has a bad habit of turning into street clothes at this point in the season, so that is a concern for Scott, but if this recent injury fulfilled that prophecy and Caruso stays in the lineup, there are no weaknesses to exploit.

The Prediction:

Hayes will be great, but Cunningham and Caruso and Folse and Kai … with a helping of Bates and Olney and even Greg Brown, who might be the 2nd best Green/Green big in the league after Aubrey Shores, will just prove to be too much to overcome for the KINGdom.


PISTONS, 4-1




ALPHA

CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP




(1) Los Angeles Clippers vs. (2) San Antonio Spurs

The Series:

It was 4-1, Clippers. But I don’t believe that Dort will quite make it back in time to play in the entirety of this series, if he is able to come back at all during it. So, who cares what the record was?

The Rundown:

WWWWWWWWWWWWHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY!?

The Prediction:

My tears and cursing of the Sim Gods!




SPURS, 4-2





OMEGA

CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP





(1) Milwaukee Bucks vs. (3) Detroit Pistons

The Series:

2-2

12/10/46 Pistons (110) @ Bucks (122)
12/13/46 Bucks (92) @ Pistons (103)
1/20/47 Bucks (94) @ Pistons (105)
1/22/46 Pistons (120) @ Bucks (124)

The Rundown:

The 1A vs 1B series. The season results do not consider the Olney trade by Detroit since they did not play after that deal, but the two teams also never played with any big injuries to sway the results. Scoring was much easier to do in Milwaukee and those games in Detroit were real grinders. Though both teams have great players, they each deploy a very balanced approach when playing against each other. I did not find any game where the scoring load was too heavily leaning to one player. Charlie Hintz nabbed POTG awards in both Bucks wins, so perhaps he is the secret weapon. I will be very interested in seeing how Olney’s addition plays into the series given he is another great on-ball defender on a team that loves defense, and completely smothered the Bucks’ offense while in Detroit.

The Prediction:

I love Doug’s roster, but barring injuries, I think Scott made too many shrewd moves in-season to overcome for any team, even one with the homecourt advantage. Before acquiring Olney (Daily first I guess) and Greg Brown, I would have sided with Doug in this one because I thought a lack of depth was the Pistons’ weak spot, but that problem doesn’t exist anymore with Brown coming in and Bates being able to be brought off the bench, where he should be at this point in his career.



PISTONS, 4-3




FINALS




(3) Detroit Pistons vs. (2) San Antonio Spurs

The Series:

1-1

1/13/47 Pistons (121) @ Spurs (111)
3/30/47 Spurs (129) @ Pistons (120)

The Rundown:

Something I’ve said often in this article … probably just drop these results in the regular season in the trash bin. In game 1, Carlos was missing Whitley and in game 2, Scott was missing both Kai Jones and Alex Caruso. At this point in the article and season, we know what the hell these two teams do well don’t we? That being pretty much everything. The Spurs are #6 in offensive efficiency and #3 in offensive efficiency. The Pistons are #1 and #2 respectively. Stars and studs and offense and defense will be all over the court. Montoya and Whitley and OG are going to be a load. Folse and Cunningham and Caruso should be impossible to deal with.

But …

The Prediction:

Scott just has the more complete roster right this moment. This championship will be a testament to his savvy moves, patience with his roster (or indifference for a long time? Either way, it worked!) and development.




PISTONS, 4-2

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[greepleairport]

yeah, more like 4,000ish, +10 pts