Figuring Out the Knicks

[garbageman]

As we finish the regular season, the New York Knicks ended up with a very respectable 56 wins on the season. This is more wins than any other year’s Knicks team under the outspoken GM except for Dr. K’s first season in the league, where the Knicks won the championship on the strength and maturation of a very strong team put together by the Knicks previous GM, retained by the stewards, and guided to a championship on a recommended depth chart and gameplan as the rookie GM was still figuring out the game.

And it seemed at times that despite outsized confidence and opinions that flew in the face of proven strategy, that going into season 57, Kavarga still didn’t have the game figured out. But despite the doubt, the Knicks haven’t slowed down, leaving a lot of GMs wondering exactly how. Let’s see if we can figure it out, and to do that, let’s take a look at several of the reasons that could explain the Knicks surprising success–and several of the reasons that can’t.


Team Stats

So when I’m in the playoffs scouting my opponent, the first thing I do is look at their team stats–both on the top of their team page to get things like three-point percentage against and on the team leaders page to get things like rebound percentages and pace. The one thing that struck me about the Knicks team setup is that almost across the board, they’re running middle of the pack. Dr. Kavarga’s preseason prediction that the Knicks would be a sixth seed this season look like a pretty fair assessment if you only go by where the Knicks are routinely landing in terms of both overall team stats and points differential.

But their record sees them outpacing themselves as the 7th best team in the league (and if you account for a presumably tougher schedule, you could argue that a 56-26 team in Alpha is better than a 58-24 team in Omega, and bump them to 6th ahead of the Wiz). So there’s gotta be more to it than just broad projections based on stats.

One of the main advantages of this team is that they’re not necessarily bad at anything. Their worst differential rating is 18th, and that’s in fouling. Douglas Haun and David Bower both commit a foul every 5 or 6 minutes, but the beauty of their foul problem being in the front court is that it doesn’t affect them as much as it would if fouls were spread around more evenly. Opponents are shooting less than 70% from the line because if bigs are doing the fouling then bigs are more than likely getting fouls.

So overall, the Knicks aren’t a categorical powerhouse, but they’re not terrible anywhere that matters, and they ARE at least close to the top of the leaderboard in a handful of areas:

The Charity Stripe

In addition to holding opponents to the lowest FT% in the league, the Knicks are shooting it pretty well from the stripe themselves. They’re 6th best in the league in terms of free throw percentage, and poor free throw shooting has cost many a team points down the stretch in important matchups. Their worst free throw shooter has a 51 rating, and the majority of the team shoots in the B range, regardless of position. This seems like the kind of thing Kavarga would look out for when offering contracts. Spot checking throughout the years, there aren’t many former Knicks who shoot too far below a 50 ranking.

Block Party

Despite fouling a lot, both their starting center, Douglas Haun, and backup, David Bower, do have a lot of blocks to show for it. Haun is sitting at 3.1 per game and Bower at 1.9, and that gives the Knicks the 4th highest blocks per game total. To put it in perspective as to how many blocks that is, the Knicks also get blocked more than all but three other teams, and they still have the 4th best block differential in the league.

Opponent Shooting

While the Knicks offensive numbers look around the middle of the pack (12th overall in FG%, 16th from downtown), their defensive numbers in these areas make up for it. They held opponents to .463 from the field and .340 from beyond the arc (good enough for 4th and 3rd in the league respectively). Part of that is the blocks, and part of that is their only A range defender, athletic 7’2 big man Kristofer Leonardo. As for the three point percentage, I’m not too sure how to explain that. The Knicks perimeter defenders aren’t necessarily excellent at PRD, tall, nor athletic. They run man / zone–since they’re not particularly strong with steals, trap and help can be passed out of to make open opportunities, so credit to his game-planning is definitely due here.


The Players

So, if you’re looking for the real difference makers on the Knicks, you really need to look no further than their front court. For all of Dr. K’s talk about not being blinded by color, the numbers don’t show his roleplayers to be big difference-makers to me. He is right that just because a player is blue doesn’t mean they’re all that great (see John McIntyre), and if you look at the season averages, you will see a lot of people getting chances: they’ve got 7 players averaging double-figures (although Wimer and Owens came from barren tax-slum Philadelphia where they were the go-to guys be default) and none averaging more than 20 points (Doug Haun leads the charge at 18.8).

However, if you take a look at the advanced stats, you can see that there are really only 3 players that get real minutes that make an impact. If you just look at win-shares alone, half the win share comes from the center spot. Douglas Haun is the clear best player on this team with 17.6 EWA and David Bower chips in 9.8 EWA from the bench. Let’s take a closer look at each guy:

Douglas Haun

The only Knick to get an end of the year nod in the Season Awards, Douglas Haun took home All League 2nd Team honors, and it was well deserved. Haun grew into his contract and then grew to outperform it. Big men who have high INS and high JPS are generally rare breeds who can keep teams that don’t look as strong on paper in the hunt. And guys like Glen Sabo and James Wiseman prove that this type of player has a long lifespan. Add in A range rebounding on both sides of the court, and this guy could be a one man wrecking machine.

The glaring issue? This guy can’t stay on the court too long. In about 27 minutes per game, Haun averages 4 fouls. If he could play one more quarter with his PER being as high as it is, it could make a real difference. Except the guy backing him isn’t that much of a dropoff.

David Bower

David Bower is basically a second unit prototype of Douglas Haun. His INS/JPS combo give him the same offensive skillset as Haun (maybe even better there). He lacks the rebounding, but still has a comparable block rating (which we touched on earlier). However, his foul problem is even worse: 3.5 PFL in 17 MPG.

Both Bauer and Haun have PER scores in the mid 20’s. That’s comparable or better than other duos on playoff teams.

And if you’re looking for a big 3, look no further than PF Kristofer Leonardo.


Kristofer Leonardo

How this guy got a flat 17mm contract is probably James’ best signing as Knicks GM. Leonardo is a 7’2 defensive specialist. Going into RFA, Leonardo wasn’t as strong a player, though–he was still tall and super athletic, but he was merely a defensive specialist until he popped in his post-RFA TC and his INS scoring jumped to B range. When you’re oversized and athletic for your position, that INS scoring benefit seems to be multiplied. His defense also got bumped up too in that TC. In any case, Leonardo is Haun’s rebounding complement. Where Haun is perfect on the offensive glass, Leonardo is perfect on the defensive boards. And he’s definitely serviceable on the offensive side, too.

So between Leonardo and Haun, we’re seeing rebound rates in the high teens (17% for Haun and 18.3% for Leonardo…or you could say Leonardo leads Haun-a-tello Does Machines). So you might think rebounding is a huge benefit for the Knicks…reminiscent of those overperforming Magic teams that drove Wig to retirement seemingly on Kenneth Fareid’s ORB prowess alone. However, the rest of the Knicks don’t care too much about getting boards. Overall, the Knicks are middle of the pack in rebounding percentage everywhere, but it sure does simplify things when you know whose role it is to grab the boards so you can stay on your man or start the break.

Anyway, for me, it’s a pretty clear build that the Knicks have found themselves with. They’ve got dominant bigs who are extremely efficient on the offensive end, but due to foul trouble, they don’t have a guy who can put up 20 or 25 a night. And 56 wins is a lot. So where does the extra oomph come from?


Intangibles

What would an article about the Knicks be without a dive into things you don’t see on the stats sheet. After all, Dr. K is an out there dude. He’s rallied against trading, training, and just about everyone in the league. His views on team composition and player evaluation and free agency strategy are well known and hotly scrutinized, maybe unfairly so once in a while, a long, long, long while (spot me an extra hundred or two for my word count because I could’ve added a thousand more longs to that and cashed in on 10 points early).

However, I think that Kavarga has been more in touch with the league these last few seasons…maybe a result of success making things more interesting, maybe it’s outside factors, and maybe it’s just my imagination. But the Doctor has been participating in more ways over the last few seasons that I haven’t seen before: posting actual memes in the meme thread, getting in on a 5 on 5, appearing more regularly in the Skype chat. It’s all good to see, and a more invested GM is always going to help contribute to a more successful season.

His Depth Chart game plan suited his team well, too…he put a lot of focus on the inside (though there would be a few tweaks I think you can argue he should still make to pound the ball there even more).

Now, as Kavarga is someone who doesn’t participate in as frequent player movement, the Knicks started the season with high cohesion. And cohesion has to have some effect on the algorithm, right? Why else would it be part of the FBB software? Maybe that adds a few close victories, but would Volker Kapp and multi-year dead salary have been enough to add a piece that would put the Knicks in a different conversation? It’s hypothetical, because Kapp was an RFA, but had he engaged in more trades, I don’t think the Knicks had the ammo to do anything game changing on the trade market. About the only roster movement I think would’ve made a difference is in the talent department would be securing a better backcourt in free agency.

But that’s all small potatoes. I think the GM-work of Dr. Kavarga–while by no stretch perfect–adds to his team’s chances rather than hurt it. Next step? Fostering an environment for sustained success.


Overall

So I’m not sure why this game has the outcomes that this game sometimes puts out. And in the case of the Knicks 56 win season, I don’t think I have a definitive answer, but I think I have a vague idea what they did to exceed expectations–both the league’s and their own. And in the words of Dr. Kavarga, in some sense, he does the opposite. In this case, it’s having a very specific type of player that’s effective in a very specific position with his Center spot. In a league where all the talent is converging towards super-athletic wings, and there are plenty of good bigs, but very few great ones (Kenneth Heard all-team? Come on!), the Knicks have a frontcourt that can compete with any team and beat most of them. Year in and year out, the Wizards have shown it’s a viable strategy if you can get the right front-court pieces to lead the charge.

They also beat the teams they were supposed to and some they maybe shouldn’t have, and it’s undeniable that this is the best the Knicks have looked under Dr. Kavarga and this is the best he’s looked as a GM.

[greepleairport]

2150+ words, +7pts

Nice article as always, sir. I'm certain there's more of an audience for this type of analysis than that of a 5 yr old lol

[IamQuailman]

This is a Love Letter to James. Beautiful. BRAVO JAMES BRAVO