Mamba's Dead Wrong Playoff Predictions

[MexicanMamba]

ALPHA


ROUND ONE


(1) Chicago Bulls (BYE)

I know, guys. The most shocking of all the seeding positions in this year’s playoffs!



(2) San Antonio Spurs vs. (7) Houston Rockets

Season series:


12/24: Spurs, 124-77
1/25: Spurs, 120-107
2/6: Spurs, 139-138
4/14: Spurs, 129-116
4/17: Rockets, 118-104

Key to the game(s):

For the Rockets, the player that most consistently delivered for them was Chris Ridley. Through the 5-game regular season series he averaged 23.2 points, however he also laid an egg in one of the 5, scoring only 5 points. Since this performance was an outlier, Ridley averaged 27.8 over the other 4 games. Those are massive upticks from his 16.9 points per game that he accrued in the totality of the season. That complete stinker of a game was the first game of the series, which was pre-Leiker in Houston and the largest blowout. To have absolutely any shot, the Rockets will need Ridley to be consistently great and he will have to dominate his match-up with Genaro Montoya, who is capable but certainly has not fully arrived yet. Obviously, the Rockets will need others to step up as well, but Ridley likely must be the catalyst for any upset dreams.
There is no secret for the Spurs is there? Their key player is the same guy that has held that role for years now. It would be last season’s MVP, Daniel Yandell. Yandell grabbed Player of the Game three times in the four wins by the Spurs in this regular season series. His averages were 25.8 points and 11.8 assists per game, and that is not even considering his elite steal numbers. He scores, he dishes, he takes the ball away from the other team and he rarely tires and doesn’t foul, so you never have to worry about his availability. There may not be a bigger matchup advantage in basketball right now than Yandell over the rest of the league’s Point Guards.


Wildcard:

In Houston, they are hoping that David Leiker finds the fountain of youth as the playoffs kick start. Leiker is still an incredibly effective player, who had a lot of attention when he became available around Day 60. On the season he had nearly 17 points and 7 assists and a respectable 17.9 PER. Comparing those to two seasons ago however, and you can see the massive drop-off from when he was hitting 26/10/24 in those same categories. If Leiker can pick his game up, like he did in the playoffs last season for Phoenix, and make life somewhat difficult for Yandell, the Rockets would be in a better spot to cause some problems in San Antonio.

Genaro Montoya is the guy on the other side that can have a big hand in dictating things. I don’t expect much more scoring than we have already seen from him (a shade under 14 points per), but if his defense can bump to a different level than it was at in the regular season series, then the Spurs could sweep this one easily. Montoya must help keep Ridley’s per-game numbers down to their regular season averages, not the almost 28 points per game that he averaged in four of the five between the two teams.

Winner:

Good to see 78 go for it and build a solid team this season. If not for messed up cohesion, this team could have inched up further in the standings as well. Which would have been fortunate because then he could have avoided the defending champions. I think Yandell will just be too big of an advantage and the Spurs will send the Rockets home early-on, much to Carlos’ delight, I’m sure.


SPURS in 5



(3) Orlando Magic vs. (6) New York Knicks

Season series:

11/8: Magic, 113-109
2/17: Magic, 123-122
2/26: Magic, 122-93
3/2: Magic, 126-120
3/26: Magic, 118-102

Key to the game(s):

The Magic just must keep on doing what they’ve been doing. They swept this season series, though a number of those were close games. Ronnie Reynolds was the star of the regular season match-up and it would be a great sign for their fortunes this round if that remained the case. During the entirety of the regular season, Reynolds averaged 20.7 points per game but upped that significantly to 29.4 against the Knicks which lead to him being named player of the game in 4 of those games. Though the Magic have a few guys capable of being dynamic scorers, Reynolds is the one that has shown to be most capable of taking advantage of this match-up.

The Knicks have a much different key than the rest of the field. In this case, I think the key to getting over the hump is the need for someone to step-up and emerge as a true go-to option. The Knicks had a nice regular season considering how truly awful they had been for a long time. Some of their young guys are growing into their roles, as James hoped. What he hasn’t had and still does not have is someone to truly carry the load offensively when everything else breaks down. I know he values balance, but the playoffs are a different animal. At some point you will need to have a guy or 2 that you can lean on heavily to grind out wins. The Knicks do not have that and because so many of these regular season games vs Orlando were close, who knows what they could pull off if someone can emerge in the playoffs?

Wildcard:

I don’t think the Magic have one here. They’re the better team. More dynamic, better defense. They just must play to their normal standard and they should walk away with this. They are a team where everyone seems to have a very particular role which probably won’t be deviated away from in round one.

Perimeter defense adjustments will be the wildcard in New York. They have to game plan ways to get Reynolds to come back down to Earth. They cannot let him just go off on them, or they’ll have no chance at all to win some games. Problem becomes the fact that Orlando has 4 guys ready to drop 20+ on you at any given time. Must start somewhere though, and that starting point should be the guy that roasted your defense 5 times.


Winner:

I trust Andy much more than I trust … well … just about any GM here. No way he goes from a regular season sweep to losing to that same team in the first round.


MAGIC in 4


(4) Milwaukee Bucks vs. (5) Denver Nuggets



Season series:

11/12: Nuggets, 134-123
12/1: Nuggets, 113-100
12/14: Nuggets, 127-111
3/8: Bucks, 119-106
3/11: Bucks, 134-131

Key match-up(s):

There are several interesting players involved in this one. There are two specific head-to-head matchups that I believe will dictate how this goes. It will be Dennis Wolfgang vs Norris Turney and Ben Franklin vs De’Aron Fox. Wolfgang is the Bucks best scorer, and maybe its best overall player, though Dangerfield would have something to say about that. The team often goes as he does, and the Nuggets have Turney, who is an A+ perimeter defender, built specifically to give Wolf problems. Expanding beyond defense though, the Nuggets need Turney to make Wolfgang work by being strong offensively as well. In the two Bucks wins in March, Turney only combined to score 19 points in those two games. That cannot happen if they want to win this series.

The Bucks started playing much better once they got depth by trading Jame Hector away and bringing in Franklin and Burnham. Franklin brought an extra dynamic offensively (he shot 45% from 3 on the season) that the Bucks were missing beyond Dangerfield. His position flex is also important as he can play the SF or PF positions in a pinch. Directly across from him is De’Aron Fox, a longtime MVP candidate, who is still playing at an incredibly high-level, even at the age of 35. Neither player dominated the other in the two games that they had against each other once Franklin went to Milwaukee, but Franklin’s presence meant something for everyone on the team as they went 2-0 once he and Burnham showed up. Fox will have to step up to turn those tables.

Wildcard:

Milwaukee’s wildcard will most definitely be the ability of Patrick Williams to help contain Danny Campbell. Even in the early losses by the Bucks, Williams was able to either make life difficult for Campbell by causing poor shooting nights, or his offense helped balance things out more. In the Bucks wins, it was generally more of the same though Campbell did explode for 33 in the final game of the season. If Campbell goes off, it could be a long series for Doug but if Williams can give him fits, it makes everyone else’s jobs much easier.

Winner:

This is an easy series to go over due to the major trade that Doug pulled off after they had already played three times. Then they played again relatively close together and the results flipped. Hard to say how the final month of the season changed their players’ happiness or the team cohesion, but the Bucks went 2-0 with their full roster. That would seem to bode well for their chances in a postseason match-up. I don’t anticipate Ryan just rolling over though.

BUCKS in 6

ROUND TWO


(1) Chicago Bulls vs. (4) Milwaukee Bucks

Season series:

12/12: Bulls, 124-117
1/14: Bucks, 106-103
2/14: Bucks, 119-111
2/21: Bulls, 134-115
4/9: Bucks, 110-97

Key(s):

Spoiler alert, there will not be a moment where the Bulls are discussed, and Delmar Lopez is not brought up as the key figure in their game plan. He’s the MVP and scoring leader for a reason. He also upped his scoring numbers in the games vs the Bucks during the regular season, averaging 36.2 in those five games, including explosions of 52 and 42. He’s a monster and will be difficult to deal with for everyone.

Just like the last round, the Bucks will go as far as Dennis Wolfgang takes them. When you are battling Delmar Lopez, you require some dynamic scoring and that is what Wolf will need to continue to provide. He averaged nearly 23 points per game vs the Bulls, which is just a tad over his season averages. In their last game of the season against each other, Wolf took home player of the game honors by pouring in 32 points. The Bucks will want to see more of that in these playoffs.

Wildcard:

Maybe sounding like a broken record regarding the Bucks, but I again think that Patrick Williams is going to play a crucial role in this series. He is going to get the impossible task of lining up against Delmar the most. Not really something you would think you’d want to see a ton of, considering Williams’ youth and inexperience. Check these numbers out though: Williams averaged 22.8 points and 7.4 rebounds per game in the five matchups with Delmar and the Bulls. His scoring would make him even with Wolfgang for the series. If he can keep that up, or even show a bit more, the Bulls may have their hands full in round two.

The wildcard for the Bulls is whatever they choose to do at their Shooting Guard spot. For much of this season, it has been Jere Ratliff manning that spot due to his defensive work and the fact that he does not need or want the ball at all, freeing up Delmar to work however he wants to. Since Wolfgang performed at a high-level against this lineup, it will be interesting to see what Josh does to try to combat him, if anything different at all. Getting Wolf’s production down will likely be a priority though.

Winner:

Going into writing this I figured I would be able to jot Josh down without much thought. Delmar and Gibson and Hunt plus Josh’s game planning usually means an easy second round. However, I was surprised to see that Doug’s Bucks won the season series and handled the Bulls easily near the end of the season. While I will still take Delmar and the Bulls here, I do not think it is going to be easy, and crazier things have happened than this kind of upset.

BULLS in 6


(2) San Antonio Spurs vs. (3) Orlando Magic

Season series:

12/09: Magic, 113-76
12/21: Magic, 128-97
1/29: Spurs, 131-121
3/22: Spurs, 106-91
3/31: Magic, 107-101

Key players(s):

Daniel Yandell once again gets the honors. In this case, it isn’t because he dominated this matchup in the regular season either. It is the fact that he had a couple of awful games in their first two games against each other (13 points, 7 assists and 8 points, 2 assists) and the Magic blew the Spurs out of the water. When he played well, the Spurs either won or it was a tight game throughout. He is the straw that stirs the drink and the Spurs are rudderless without his game and leadership.

The Magic’s use of Roderick Pastor will be my favorite thing to track for the team. Last season Pastor won the 6th Man of the Year award and then proceeded to hit the starting lineup during the playoffs. This season, Pastor is the 6th Man award winner, but will he get into the starting five again? Against the Spurs in the regular season, he often dominated off the bench, getting 21, 27, 18, 18 and 13. Even with his low of 13, he took 19 shots that game, so he is getting many opportunities to take control of the second unit. So, Andy choosing the right spot for Pastor will be key to his run in the playoffs.

Wildcard:

A match-up that could swing the tide is Felicio vs Long. OG and Whitley and Yandell will get headlines in San Antonio and the Magic have skilled scorers like Harrison, Reynolds, Lynch and Pastor, but perhaps it will be the anchors of each team’s defense that makes the difference. With so many players trying to score, having a deterrent at the rim could be huge. So, which one will be able to stand up the longest?

Winner:

The next road team to win a game in this series will be the first one. I suspect someone will drop of a home game this series which could turn the entire thing upside down. As great as Yandell and OG are, something tells me that the Magic will find a way to pull a road game away and Pastor will eat off the bench.


MAGIC in 6


ROUND THREE


(1) Chicago Bulls vs. (3) Orlando Magic

Season series:

11/14: Magic, 120-97
11/21: Bulls, 114-112
12/2: Magic, 124-114
12/19: Bulls, 115-110
1/28: Bulls, 116-109


Key(s):

It’ll be Delmar Lopez and Ronnie Reynolds as the primaries. As-per-usual. Funnily enough, in the regular season both players had at least one game that would be considered laying an egg. Delmar failed to reach double figures in their November 14th game and yet the Bulls found a way to win. A missed opportunity for the Magic, for sure. Delmar also had games of 44 and 36 though and was generally just as dominate as always. Reynolds was not as out-of-this-world as he was in other regular season series that I came across, but he still had three games of strong output of 31,25,21 and his lows of 12 and 9 were not strong efforts from the Magic as a whole. To be at peak performance, these guys will need to show out in what is likely to be a tough series.

Wildcard:

I honestly think that both teams know what they are and there won’t be a bunch of surprises. However, Lynch vs Gibson could be interesting. Gibson is the guy who carries the load for the Bulls in the infrequent moments when Delmar is struggling, and Gibson came up big numerous times vs. the Magic. Lynch is going to need to be up to the challenge of squaring up with him if the Magic want a shot at stealing one in Chicago to turn the tables on the series.


Winner:

Last season I predicted an upset with Orlando toppling the Bulls and while it was close, Josh pulled it out. I think its possible for Andy to grab this series, but if asked in this “official” capacity, I think I have to go with Josh when he has a guy like Delmar at his disposal. Though betting on Delmar has burned me multiple times in the past!


BULLS in 7




OMEGA


ROUND ONE


Los Angeles Clippers (BYE)


69 Wins … Well, you know the rest.



(2) Washington Wizards vs. (7) Portland Trailblazers

Season series:

1/18: Wizards, 119-95
3/14: Blazers, 123-103
3/20: Blazers, 130-114
3/30: Wizards, 121-96

Key match-up(s):

This comes down to high-level perimeter play (Blazers) vs. top-shelf big man play (Wizards). Dort, Sneed, Jackson are all dynamic playmakers and Mitchell and Cassel are the best big combo in the league. Dort in particular is and will continue to be special. Without him, the Blazers don’t sniff the playoffs, more than likely. He was consistently great vs the Wizards in the regular season as well, averaging 22.7 points and 12 assists per game. I’ll choose Tasmin Mitchell for the Wizards, who went for 22.5 per game in these games, and that is with a 10-point game thrown in there due to foul trouble, and that point will lead me into my next section …

Wildcard:

Winston Kelly could potentially play a huge role in this series. For as good as Tasmin Mitchell tends to be, the man is a walking bucket, he struggles with fouls and his backup becomes incredibly important. Kelly averaged starter minutes this season partially because of Tasmin’s foul problems and rewarded the Wizards with 10 points, 7 rebounds, 4 assists and 3.7 blocks per game. Though the Blazers do not have great big men to fully exploit Tasmin’s foul issue, Kelly can step in if something does happen and still help put games away.

Winner:

I think this Blazers team can be dangerous to the Wizards. If they had been able to get a stronger front court somehow, I’d even say they might be the favorite here. However, I trust X a lot. Plus, I think Liberty, Silva and Silva are a better roadblock to what the Blazers want to do than the Blazer’s poo-poo platter deluxe at Center are to the Wizards’ bigs.

WIZARDS in 6



(3) Philadelphia 76ers vs. (6) Indiana Pacers

Season series:

12/21: 76ers, 123-110
2/22: 76ers, 127-110
3/7: Pacers, 131-129
4/17: 76ers, 129-95

Key match-up(s):

On one side we have James Wiseman and William Pearman and on the other you have Mamadi Diakite and a group of solid, but not spectacular, players. I honestly do not expect this series to be close, though I do really love Diakite.

Wildcard:

Besides injury? It will take an other-worldly performance by Diakite against weak Power Forward play by the 76ers.

Winner:

The Pacers had a nice season and go into next season with Diakite’s bird rights and pretty much every dollar to spend in free agency. But in this series, they just should not have the horses to match-up. This is a situation where the regular season series will bleed into the postseason.


76ers in 4


(4) Brooklyn Nets vs. (5) Oklahoma City Thunder


Season series:

11/4: Thunder, 114-103
1/24: Nets, 117-97
2/23: Nets, 121-115
2/25: Thunder, 93-75
4/2: Nets, 94-70

Key match-up(s):

Fang in the one with the most bite, amirite? Hard to go by his averages in the regular season series though. He missed one game due to injury, then had two which were incredibly explosive (28, 48 points) but then got bogged down in the last two games vs the Thunder because of the games being defensive-minded. Still, his ability to go off at any given moment is special and will be the deciding factor for the Nets.

Makur Maker is the guy I’d peg as the one to most focus on for the Thunder, though Zaire Wade is a blooming star. I think Maker (with Oturu) play the positions that the Thunder might be able to exploit the most.

Wildcard:

Kostas has turned into the real deal in Brooklyn (something I honestly never saw coming) and his quickness could end up being really difficult for the Thunder to contend with in the playoffs. On the flip side? Oturu is a bull at Power Forward and those contrasting styles at the same position can be important to this outcome.

Winner:

Charlie had a hell of a season considering he let Silva go and ran with a roster which was way under the salary cap. With Ed at full-strength and hitting his stride though, I will take the team with the ability to get buckets at a higher clip.


NETS in 5



ROUND TWO


(1) Los Angeles Clippers vs. (4) Brooklyn Nets

Season series:


12/14: Clippers, 118-105
2/18: Nets, 113-108
4/12: Clippers, 114-94
4/15: Nets, 122-115

Key match-up(s):

I cannot in good conscious tell everything I think about this match-up! (But keep an eye on Kostas vs. Jordan Johnson)

Wildcard:

Terry Sterner and how he handles Fang.

Winner:

Love you Ed, but …



CLIPPERS in 6


(2) Washington Wizards vs. (3) Philadelphia 76ers

Season series:

11/8: Wizards, 127-125
12/10: Wizards, 108-106
1/3: 76ers, 131-118
2/17: 76ers, 124-113
3/15: 76ers, 124-106


Key match-up(s):

Paul Cassel vs James Wiseman.

Early in the season the Wizards took two close games vs the struggling 76ers, who were having difficulties figuring out the right lineups to deploy with the addition of Pearman and the losses of Burnham in trade and Toppin to free agency. Cassel dominated at Center in those wins, putting up 41 points in one. Wiseman began the season at Small Forward but something clicked with the game plan and once the Sixers put Wiseman at Center, the team started to gel and they would take the next 3 against the Wizards. Cassel was held in far better check in these games from having to expend so much energy trying (and failing) to slow down Wiseman.

Wildcard:

Tasmin Mitchell has to stay out of foul trouble and cause havoc for the Wizards. If he can, things get far more interesting.

Winner:


I’ll trust the results since the switch to Center for Wiseman.

SIXERS in 6



ROUND THREE


(1) Los Angeles Clippers vs. (3) Philadelphia 76ers

Again, I can’t give anything away! But I think this is going to be one hell of a series if we actually get it. I won the season series 4-1, but MANY of those games were one possession games that could have gone either way.

Gary Loredo and Jordan Johnson vs. James Wiseman and William Pearman.

Nail biter … but due to the fact that I very specifically want to face a certain someone in the next round:


CLIPPERS in 7



FINALS



Los Angeles Clippers vs. Chicago Bulls

Josh and I have not gotten the opportunity to go up against each other in the playoffs since he brought me in. He’s been the gold standard for the majority of my time in here and this would be a lot of fun to do, for me (and hopefully him as well). I’d honestly assume that he would find a way to best me, but I will not allow ya’ll to accuse me of anything! So …


CLIPPERS in 7


Good luck in the playoffs, everyone!

[MexicanMamba]

+10

[garbageman]

Great, you've reverse reverse cursed us both

[MexicanMamba]

Great, you've reverse reverse cursed us both

Two negatives make a positive

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