The Lazy Statistician Picks Whose Picks You Should Pick

[garbageman]

The Lazy Statistician Picks Whose Picks You Should Pick

First round draft picks…some folks hold onto them for dear life, and others pass them out like cars on Oprah. But not all first round draft picks are created equal. Some GMs will give you a better chance of entering the lotto and landing your next future star. Some GMs are really just passing along a couple mil in guaranteed salary for a mediocre role player. But how do you know which is which? The Lazy Statistician did the work for you, but he didn’t double check it, and the sample size isn’t huge, nor does it adjust for recency. As GMs get more experienced, they should, theoretically, get better at evaluating their futures, but is that always the case? We’ll never know, because the Lazy Statistician didn’t do any time-lapse BS since it would be hard and he doesn’t know how. The Lazy Statistician also did not examine the return for this picks. For example, if I trade a pick 3 seasons away for players that help me win a championship the next season, and that pick ends up being a lotto pick, it’s more worthwhile to trade it than just giving away a mid-first round pick for free. So take these results with a grain of salt, and realize that no matter where someone lands on the list, it doesn’t mean they’re definitively savvy or, conversely, boneheaded (but it doesn’t not mean that either).

So what did I do? I looked back at the last 25 seasons to see:
1. How many picks a GM had traded BEFORE the end of the previous season. So if you traded a pick during the draft in question, when you know what position it is, it’s not counted.
2. Where did those picks end up landing in the draft.

Then, I averaged all the pick positions together and adjusted to estimate their average position in a 26 team draft to determine whose picks were the most valuable—if you could get your hands on them. And now, I share that knowledge with you.

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THE BACK 9

The back 9 are GMs who have proven that their picks aren’t likely going to pan out for you if you trade for them. If you need an extra pick so that you can trade one of your picks to get a great deal done, you might be able to get one of these teams’ picks for a few points. Be quick with your offers, though. Chances are, these teams have already traded their picks away, and if they haven’t, there’s probably a good reason they’re hanging onto ‘em. Between these 9 GMs, there are 24 championships (over half of the current championships in PBSL history), so you’re in elite company here.

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26. Chicago Bulls
PICKS TRADED: 8 out of 25 (32%)
LOTTO PICKS TRADED: 1
AVERAGE POSITION: 23.10

In my second season, I traded a pick that ended up at #8. The other picks were, at best, the 3rd last in the draft. I don’t mean to humblebrag, or even outwardly brag here. It behooves me to have people think my picks are valuable, so a little more wildcard attitude might make my picks easier to move. Being in the middle (at least the late middle) of this list might be a sweet spot. The Raptors have my 2037 pick. I can guarantee that it won’t be one of the last 3 in the draft, but I won a ring last year, so no matter how that pick turns out, and no matter how good Gary Loredo turns out, it’s a worthwhile gambit, and some of the teams that appear lower on the list might have landed even MORE success for having traded picks that turned out a little better for the team receiving them.


25. Los Angeles Lakers
PICKS TRADED: 3 out of 8 (37.5%)
LOTTO PICKS TRADED: 0
AVERAGE POSITION: 22

Eight seasons isn’t a huge sample size, but grapple hasn’t slipped up yet trading his picks, so good on him for being a newer GM who hasn’t been had in this respect. I’ll admit that when I pick swapped last year, I thought the Lakers pick would wind up a little higher than pick 23. I wouldn’t consider the Lakers picks as worthless as the 25 spot suggests, though. At least not yet. He’s still about 40 seasons less experienced than half the league, but he’s off to a good start. As a newer GM, he’s the only one in the back 9 without a ring yet (though a couple of finals appearances in short order isn’t too shabby), so that could be a sign that his e-finger won’t be naked for too much longer.


24. Detroit Pistons
PICKS TRADED: 6 out of 20 (30%)
LOTTO PICKS TRADED: 0
AVERAGE POSITION: 21.84

There’s no disputing that ballsohard is one of the savviest GMs in PBSL history. He has 4 championships, which is the second most of any active GM (and of inactive GMs, only the mythical Wig has more). What’s more impressive is that he hasn’t given out a lotto pick in the last 25 seasons. Of all the GMs that haven’t given up a lotto pick in the last 25 seasons, 6 is tied for the second most picks any of those GMs traded overall (we’ll get to the other two VERY shortly). He did trade a pick that ended up being 15th last season, at least 9 spots higher than any other pick he’s traded, but that was a pick he traded during a season where he took over a team Wombataholic ran into the ground and ended up sneaking them into the playoffs.


23. Los Angeles Clippers
PICKS TRADED: 6 out of 8 (75%)
LOTTO PICKS TRADED: 0
AVERAGE POSITION: 21.48

MexicanMamba has been kind of a wunderkind of this game. He almost always trades his picks, and those picks are always in the bottom half of the draft. It’s incredibly impressive that he hasn’t misstepped by trading any of his picks yet. Only one pick has cracked the top 20 at 17 (this season), and that was a pick that was traded away in a move that contributed to him getting a ring. Though there are people on this list above him, I would probably take a pick from any of them before I took one from the Clippers, but he seems to find no shortage of takers. So the tl;dr, can you get a Clippers 1st? Easily. Should you? Probably not.


22. Sacramento Kings
PICKS TRADED: 6 out of 25 (24%)
LOTTO PICKS TRADED: 0
AVERAGE POSITION: 20.79

And the third in the trifecta of folks who have traded 6 picks without trading away a lotto pick, NOLa’s the only one who has been here for every season of the last 25 without an official break (he did go cruise control for a few seasons). He trades his picks the least of those three, but just like balls, the best pick he traded was a 15th pick, and just like Mamba, that trade helped him build a team that won a ring.


21. Milwaukee Bucks
PICKS TRADED: 8 out of 25 (32%)
LOTTO PICKS TRADED: 0
AVERAGE POSITION: 20.55

Clocking in at number 21, it’s The Godfather of Goop, the Sultan of Slime, the uh…Oligarch of Ooze? In the last 25 seasons, Quail has traded 8 picks, and none of them have been lottery picks. Nobody else in the league has done that. Remember what I said about MexicanMamba? “Though there there are people on this list above him, I would probably take a pick from any of them before I took one from the Clippers?” That goes double for Doug. Quail has proven time and time again that he can go from tanking to competing in less than a season. Long story short, a Bucks 1st is no prize. Longer story shorter, don’t ever trade with Doug.


20. Orlando Magic
PICKS TRADED: 9 out of 25 (36%)
LOTTO PICKS TRADED: 2
AVERAGE POSITION: 20.41

There was a rare misstep in false9’s pick value that shot him down the list when a pick he traded to the 76ers, which then got passed onto the Heat, fell to the 5th slot. The first pick he traded fell to the 6th spot in his first couple years as GM—and that could’ve been a trade by his predecessor, ColtsGuy. I was too lazy to dig through the Finalized Trades board in addition to 25 different PBSL draft previews and many Human Coaches pages. Other than those two bookending missteps, the Magic picks have been mostly worthless. From 2029-2031, they traded their pick in advance all three years, and during that stretch, it was consistently the number 30 pick in the final years before contracting down to 26. While false9 is proof that even the best GMs can miscalculate and toss away a lotto pick (seriously, the team he had that year looked stronger than some teams he’d won divisions with earlier on in his career), vying for a Magic lotto pick is like winning the lotto…more often than not, you just lose the dollar you spent on the ticket.


19. San Antonio Spurs
PICKS TRADED: 6 out of 25 (24%)
LOTTO PICKS TRADED: 1
AVERAGE POSITION: 19.75

We’re finally out of the 20’s in terms of average position, albeit just barely. With 6 out of 25 picks traded, I can tell you that Eazy’s 2nd and 3rd lowest picks (19 and 22 respectively) were traded to the Pistons to get Jonathan Lewis in an absolute steal of a deal. Other than that, the Spurs were short a pick that landed 7th in the late 2010s, but I wouldn’t put much stock into Spurs picks, and I DEFINITELY wouldn’t trade a high caliber rookie contract player for 2 of them.


18. Denver Nuggets
PICKS TRADED: 12 out of 25 (48%)
LOTTO PICKS TRADED: 2
AVERAGE POSITION: 19.29

By the measure of most championships, the_syndicate is the most successful GM in PBSL today (and tied for all time) with 5 rings. The cost to competing so relentlessly is dealing out whatever assets you can, so about half the time, Ryan’s dished his picks in advance, and most of the time it pays off. Now, once you get into that territory by sheer numbers, some of those picks are going to be somewhat valuable. Going in the opposite direction, Ryan’s LATEST two dished picks have both been lotto picks. His new-dad-ness can be partly to blame as that’s undoubtedly a much higher priority for him than winning a 6th ring (on that note, stock in Pistons picks should be on the rise), but part of it, I think, is the weird luck of teams that underperform. Ryan’s put together teams that I would bet on instantly to make the finals that just didn’t. He’s been hit hard by injury, sure, but I’d say he’s fallen mostly victim to the game just randomly quashing him. I’ve had seasons like that, too, where the team is bad one year, and then, with minimal change, it performs fantastically the next. Consider the last two late lotto picks an aberration here and look for the Nuggets to be alive and kicking once the postseason rolls around.

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THE MIDDLE 8

Alright…now we’re getting somewhere. In today’s PBSL, green potential guys are pretty much guaranteed in the middle third of the draft, and there’s a good chance that picks from the next set of GMs will get you there. You might even get a lotto pick, but the lower bound is still just outside the lotto on average. In contrast to the back 9, these 8 GMs have 8 championships between them, so that correlation holds, but there are still a lot of very talented GMs in this section of the chart.

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17. Phoenix Suns
PICKS TRADED: 5 out of 25 (20%)
LOTTO PICKS TRADED: 0
AVERAGE POSITION: 19.01

The Phoenix Suns, in the past 25 years, have pretty consistently traded picks that land about 2/3rds of the way through the 1st round, but they haven’t traded picks recently. The last Suns pick that belonged to another team was 2022, so these numbers are heavily weighted towards the Kevin Love era. Since MESSI_2.0 isn’t the most active GM, showing up occasionally to exercise his RFAs or retain his players or mercy trade with Doug, so Doug stops oozing up through his plumbing with a trade offer while he’s trying to take a shower, you’re probably not going to get a Suns pick anyway, so even if a post-Love era Suns pick would be good, you’re not going to get it, and it’s going to auto-pick some guy who will project to be the best player in the league after 3 favorable TCs.


16. Oklahoma City Thunder
PICKS TRADED: 2 out of 13 (15%)
LOTTO PICKS TRADED: 1
AVERAGE POSITION: 18.5

The Thunder have only traded picks twice so far. One landed at 25, and one landed in the lotto at 12. Both picks were probably forked over around the time the Thunder went all in with Josh Jackson to try and win a ring. So, the jury’s still out here. AB is still one of the newer GMs, so holding onto his picks is probably smart, and he probably won’t trade his picks until he’s more experienced—especially now that he’s re-entering a rebuild around Zaire Wade.


15. Washington Wizards
PICKS TRADED: 13 out of 25 (52%)
LOTTO PICKS TRADED: 4
AVERAGE POSITION: 16.6

The Wizards are one of those teams that always seem to be at least trying to compete, and that can be evidenced by the fact that they’ve traded over half of their own picks in the last 25 seasons. 13 is the highest number of picks traded over that time period, even eclipsing NickMalone77’s total. 4 of those 13 picks have ended up in the lottery, although none since 2024, and only one of those landing in the top 10. So it is proof that xist is getting better at judging which of his picks to hold and which to keep (although perhaps he’s just gotten better at always being in the playoffs—he’s currently riding a 10 season streak that doesn’t seem to be in jeopardy with Quintin Kidd on his roster). Still, I’d take an xist pick. Even if he’s made the playoffs consistently, there is a natural ebb and flow. Teams that go full on Darth and compete at whatever tax bill possible tend to snag up those really late 1sts, but they have to eventually duck out of the tax and reset. Teams that are always competing can avoid resetting by never going too far in one direction or the other, so teams like the Wizards might always be in the mix, but are much more likely to land you a stash-able mid-round green potential player who might turn into something later.


14. Portland Trailblazers
PICKS TRADED: 6 out of 15 (40%)
LOTTO PICKS TRADED: 2
AVERAGE POSITION: 16.4

For such a winning GM, BowToTheBill da bang, da dang diggy diggy, diggy, said the boogie, said up jump the boogie comes in surprisingly mid-table, but that, I think has to do with timing more so than anything else. Blazers picks have not been on the menu since his comeback a few seasons ago, and the worst pick Ben gave up was a pick that landed at 6th best in 2022. That pick jumped in the lotto and eventually became Boban Marjanovic, and the rest is modern history. It was also Ben’s last season before taking a hiatus, so he was probably a bit checked out at that point anyway. In any case, I’d venture to say that Blazers picks will probably be back on the market soon now that he’s rustled up a hearty stable of young prospects and started cashing them in. New dudes will bear witness to how dangerous a GM BttB can B.


13 (T). Toronto Raptors
PICKS TRADED: 6 out of 25 (24%)
LOTTO PICKS TRADED: 2
AVERAGE POSITION: 15.78

AND

13 (T). Houston Rockets
PICKS TRADED: 9 out of 25 (36%)
LOTTO PICKS TRADED: 2
AVERAGE POSITION: 15.78

Now that we’ve passed the halfway point, things start getting more interesting. We’ve got a tie at 13 as both Soundwave and 78#’s picks are likely to land at about 15.78. Both have also given away 2 lotto picks in the last 25 seasons, although 78#’s lotto rate is 22% rather than 33%. However, 78# has given away a lotto pick a season more recently—and one that was 3 spots better at #8. If you’re looking for tiebreakers, perhaps rings is the definitive answer as Soundwave’s got two of them. In fact, his lowest traded pick (#11 from last draft) was the direct result of trading to get the most recent of his championships, so you can argue that while you COULD get a lotto pick out of the Raptors, he’ll get more out of it than the lotto pick that you could get out of the Rockets. Six of one, half dozen of the other, though.


11. Minnesota Timberwolves
PICKS TRADED: 3 out of 25 (12%)
LOTTO PICKS TRADED: 1
AVERAGE POSITION: 15.02

With only 3 picks traded out of 25, JNR is the GM least likely (well, tied) to give up his pick, which is strange, considering he’s talked about how he doesn’t really care about his first round draft picks. With such a small sample size, one bad pick trade can bring his average position down, and that’s what happened in 2020. If he trades another late first anytime soon, chances are, his position fluctuates wildly, maybe even knocking him up 6 or 7 spots. I’m pretty sure that JNR does most of his pick trading on draft day, though, when he knows where his pick has already landed. Either that or I just bungled checking the draft preview pages every year. I did go back and double check, but I got bored about halfway through since this article is taking so long to write, and Tani’s article’s still better.


10. Cleveland Cavaliers
PICKS TRADED: 5 out of 25 (20%)
LOTTO PICKS TRADED: 1
AVERAGE POSITION: 14.92

2020 is the last time LHamilton traded a Cav pick, and that was the one lotto pick that he traded (it landed 8). Since then, he’s learned his lesson and almost sworn off trading completely. You can try to get his pick, but seeing as how the Cavaliers have missed the playoffs every year since 2020 except for one, where a 35-47 Cavs team somehow accidentally snuck into the playoffs, it might be hard to pry away those Cavs picks. It’d even be a small victory to get more than a “No thanks” if you were bold enough to try.


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THE PREMIUM GOODS

Here we go. This is where things get extra juicy…or do they? The top 9 are more likely to get you a lotto pick, but with small sample sizes, and extenuating circumstances, does grabbing a pick from one of these teams mean you’ve struck gold on the next player to build your team around? Not necessarily—especially as some of these GMs become more experienced. Between the final 9 GMs on this list, there are only 2 championships (and one with a team freshly gifted by stewards). So let’s take a look at who got here and how.

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9. Utah Jazz
PICKS TRADED: 4 out of 22 (18%)
LOTTO PICKS TRADED: 1
AVERAGE POSITION: 14.83

Wildcard, bitches! Bet you thought Gary would be a little higher on this list, huh? Frankly, I was surprised I only counted 4 picks traded in digiskunk’s 22 seasons here. I seem to recall that perhaps he traded one to the Magic, and then the Magic were able to trade it back to him for their benefit. Or I could have miscounted. All entirely possible scenarios. He’s also traded some good picks back on draft day. But the one thing he hasn’t done is trade too many of his picks before knowing where they’d land. Of the 4 picks, only 1 was in the lotto (albeit, he had the 2nd worst record that season). Unexplained disappearances also could account for the Jazz’s lack of pick trading. I’d still always take my chances with the wildcard except for the scarlet letter S you might get any time you trade with the Jazz.


8. New Orleans Pelicans
PICKS TRADED: 11 out of 25 (44%)
LOTTO PICKS TRADED: 4
AVERAGE POSITION: 14.34

With Nick’s 2038 pick already off his books, the trend continues as Nick is one of the most prolific pick swappers In the league. 4 out of his 11 picks have struck lotto (10, 11, 13, 4) pretty evenly across the last 25 seasons, and no Nick pick has ever been worse than 22 out of 26, so chances are, you’ll get a fake green at worst and a lotto shot at best. It’s no secret that a Pels pick is fine currency on the trade market as he trades them deep into the future and they usually end up with several owners before the pick is made. Since his 4th pick was over 20 seasons ago, it seems like Nick’s got a secure enough handle to not give away top spots recently, but a late lotto pick is still worth going after, and with 44% of his picks hitting the market, they’re not hard to get if you strike early enough.


7. Philadelphia 76ers
PICKS TRADED: 1 out of 5 (20%)
LOTTO PICKS TRADED: 0
AVERAGE POSITION: 14

As the newest GM in PBSL, KeepIt100 only recently traded his first first-rounder and it ended up just outside the lotto at 14, garnering him his first playoff appearance (swept up by Slime), but also a tax bill. Therefore, this 7 ranking could mean anything, and in normal statistical circles, would be hastily thrown out. But for the sake of the article, let’s not ignore KeepIt100. It’ll be interesting to see how he develops over time. He’s got a lot of talent on his team, but it’s too early to tell how his pick swapping game will pan out in the future, and while he does have two blue/purple players (assuming he retains Wiseman in RFA), there are definite gaps on this squad that need to be filled (right now, he needs to get anyone who can rebound since a breadth of his talent is concentrated on wing scoring). So he has a talented team, but if he starts tossing out picks now, it’ll be tough to tell whether his team will jell enough for his picks to be mid-first or late-first without adjustment. Or maybe he holds onto those picks until he’s experienced more winning, just to play it safe. Either way, it’s always interesting to see how newer GMs approach uncharted territory for themselves.


6. Indiana Pacers
PICKS TRADED: 8 out of 25 (32%)
LOTTO PICKS TRADED: 5
AVERAGE POSITION: 13.57

PaulyP is the GM who’s traded the most lotto picks over the top 25 years. So as frugal as he is with salary, he makes it rain with 1st rounders. With one of the most consistently set strategies, it seems like Pauly is not going to divert from his MO any time soon: always try to win, never go into the tax, and save your cap until UFA round 2 except for home run swings in round 1. Of course, with one of those home run swings paying off in the acquisition of De’Aaron Fox, it might be some time before lotto pick #6 makes its way out of Indiana.


5. Brooklyn Nets
PICKS TRADED: 10 out of 25 (40%)
LOTTO PICKS TRADED: 4
AVERAGE POSITION: 13.49

Over the last 25 seasons, the Nets have also given out some good picks (11, 14, 6, 14). The latter two picks were both so long ago that we only had 29 teams at the time. RPF is a GM who values competing over rebuilding, though the Nets right now are in a rebuilding phase. Especially recently, Ed has been more patient with his picks and has improved his forecasting ability, however, a lack of trades where he sent 1sts that ended up being extremely late first round hurts his average. The worst pick he sent out of the 10 he’s sent is 26/30, and the second worst is 20/30. But with a number of picks between 14-16, a lot of his 1sts appear to have been traded in order to push a team on the cusp into the playoffs or die trying.


4. New York Knicks
PICKS TRADED: 3 out of 13 (23%)
LOTTO PICKS TRADED: 2
AVERAGE POSITION: 13.29

There are Nick picks and there are Knick picks and there are picks from New York and there are Knicks from New York and they’re all in this last section here. Now, the Knicks are an interesting case. I’m pretty sure that the latest 1st rounder they traded (28/30 in 2023) was traded by the stewards since that was his first full year as a GM, but I’m giving drkavarga credit anyway. The other two picks he traded, not so fortuitous at 6 and 12. Of course, for a team so deep in the tax, trading your picks is one way to get points to dig yourself out of a hole. I’m also realizing just at this point, however, that a mid-lotto pick is probably the worst mistake a team can make when trading a pick…the top several slots are reserved for teams that are actively trying to tank, so retroactively apply that criticism to all the above teams. They should all feel at least some modicum of shame if they have a top 10 pick that they botch.


3. Miami Heat
PICKS TRADED: 3 out of 25 (12%)
LOTTO PICKS TRADED: 2
AVERAGE POSITION: 11.19

Now we’re finally in the territory that the average position is firmly in the lotto. However, that means smaller sample sizes. The Heat haven’t traded a pick since 2024, and they’ve only recently become more active again, but they have on their record: pick 13 in 2024, pick 4 in 2016, and pick 21 in 2013. Now that logpmess is back and competitive, a Heat pick might be back on the market, and it’s probably worth a roll of the dice if you’ve got a competitive dude you want to get rid of, and you find yourself and the Heat both in the right situation. A lot of that may heavily rely on how well the Heat do at retaining their guys in RFA. I remember in the 2010s, Logan had a monster team that routinely ousted me from the playoffs. We’ll see if he gets back to that.


2. Vantlantemphis Grizzhawks
PICKS TRADED: 7 out of 19 (37%)
LOTTO PICKS TRADED: 4
AVERAGE POSITION: 10.95

With hundreds of points still to go to whittle down his tax bill, LoCo89’s picks should all be for sale, and they should all be worth going in on. That’s pretty much the reason that the Hawks are #2 on this list right now, and there should be no end in sight. However, Louie has managed to stock up the Hawks for a more competitive season, and his most point-grabbing strategy so far has not been trading picks in advance, but rather waiting til draft day and trading back time and time again. I think one draft, he netted over 60 points, so that strategy seems way more viable than settling for a measly 10 a season or two in advance.


1. Dallas Mavericks
PICKS TRADED: 3 out of 16 (GIMME A HELL YEAH…19%)
LOTTO PICKS TRADED: 2
AVERAGE POSITION: 8.96

Even though he’s only traded away 3 picks (6, 9, and 16), the Mavs are easily at the bottom of this list. Two of those lotto picks have been top 10 picks pre-lotto. Both of them went to false9 in a trade for Trae Young, and both of them probably squandered any trust that LPH had in not only his real life friend, false9, but also in trading his picks. Which is probably wise. I don’t think Horse has any idea whether or not his team will be good until it happens, and neither does the rest of the league. The Mavericks are truly an enigma of modern day PBSL, and getting a Mavericks pick might be impossible at this point. Only the handful of GMs that actually know him can see him for the true wildcard he is…a man who would rival Gary for that title were he not so shrouded in mystery.





And there you have it. Want to see my work? And by work, I mean a spreadsheet with a bunch of numbers and colors on it? Here you go:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

[MexicanMamba]

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[greepleairport]

Great article Josh, thanks

[false9]

+10

[IamQuailman]

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

I laughed out loud at this on a work call.