WTF Happened?

[garbageman]

Welcome to WTF Happened? It's a running guide throughout the S46 playoffs to see where teams went wrong once they got eliminated. As teams get eliminated, there will be more posts, so this isn't JUST an opportunity for me to rag on the 76ers, but they're the only team that got swept, so here goes.

First and foremost, the 76ers squeaked into the playoffs after picking a direction midseason and adding pieces to get there. So kudos on them for making the midseason adjustments to be a playoff team and not a late lotto team. It's about time. However, the first mistake I think can be traced back to the regular season. They put themselves in the tax this season, meaning that as their young core improves, they'll be more poised to compete, but they'll also be more expensive as RFA hits. Ideally, they would've waited until they were sure in the offseason that they were going to compete to go into the tax (or they would've made stronger moves than Josh Hart and Clemente Torres) so they could be in a good spot for a few years in the repeater tax. Chalk that up to inexperience in navigating the tax that will come in time.

But in the playoffs, there probably wasn't much they could do. The 7th place team is always at a disadvantage against the 2nd place squad due to record and home court advantage. However, the biggest change I would've made would have been to start Clifton Cage over Josh Hart at SG. Justin Rodriquez is good, and he's going to score, but Ronald Haile was at least their 2nd best scorer in each game. Clifton Cage is a far superior defender who would've given Ronald a lot more trouble, and on the offensive end, he won't take as many shots away from more efficient players like Wiseman, Long, and the very underrated Diakite.

Finally, if they'd have given me a point for Minter instead of stealing him off waivers, karma might not have been so hard on them.

[garbageman]

Game 5 of round 1 saw the elimination of 2 more teams as the Pelicans defeated the Pistons and the Jazz dethroned the defending champs (albeit a championship team who shipped off most of its best players). In both series, the eventual winners went undefeated at home and stole one on the road. Let's take a look at what happened.

Clippers vs. Jazz

With both teams finishing with identical regular season records, the Jazz held the series edge and squeaked home court advantage. Being able to hold serve at home was huge, and perhaps just riding the depth chart that got them to 50 wins made the difference at first with the Clippers hail marying an untested lineup switch to try to contain Leonard Washington. Though the Clippers have a few options at the wing spot, none of them were at the level of Washington, so it didn't really matter who started at SG...Leo was gonna get his points.

Back in LA for games 3 and 4, an injury to Colby Lopez that had him sidelined for all but 8 minutes in game 3 did not help. Lopez is easily the Clippers' second best player, and there's a decent dropoff after that, so losing him for a little bit hurt. Sabo played a great series, but he can't do everything. On a team where you lack an incredible backcourt player, it's hard to stop a tandem like Bias and Washington. There wasn't really a defensive scheme that worked for the Clippers to stop them, and foul trouble was persistent--especially among the LAC bigs--throughout the series.

With Lopez down, you can't blame it too much on Mamba's game planning, but the Clippers pretty much lost their edge in dealing BDJ to the Pels. BDJ would've been pretty clutch in this series, so for Mamba's sake, let's hope that 2038 Pels pick turns out to be decent.


Pelicans vs. Pistons

Speaking of BDJ, he's a pretty big reason the Pistons got toppled in 5 games. Ballsohard did a great job of assembling a strong team, and I would've bet on this series going a full 7. The rest of Omega's playoff teams probably don't want to run into either squad, so the silver lining was that one of these teams had to get eliminated in round 1.

Now, BDJ averaged 44 minutes in a series that didn't have an overtime game. He played all 48 minutes twice, which is probably technically a worker's rights violation. And the Pistons didn't have a great answer for him. Haddock is an incredibly appealing player to a lot of GMs because he has great passing and handling ratings, and passing especially is a dying art. However, Haddock is a very weak foil against a floor general like BDJ.

On the other end from Haddock, the Pistons have Derick Hunter, who looks like a defensive monster. However, when the Pelicans offense isn't based at all around their frontcourt, that defense goes to waste, and he's just kind of out there. Chalk that up to a matchup problem.

The Pistons three best players are William Jackson, Dominick Cobb, and Luka Doncic, and the three are probably so close to being in the same neighborhood that it's hard to get more than one of them in their optimal position. Sure, Cobb can shoot lights out, but Deuce Fortre reamed him on the glass. Luka Doncic is very good at a lot of things, but for a purple player, he's not dominant. It's a case seen a lot with athletic wings who can do a little bit of everything. In fact, he reminds me of another BSH great--Gordon Hayward.

I bring up Gordon Hayward because of the series where Scott would put Hayward at PG (even with much slower QKN) and find great success. I would be interested to see how things would've unfolded if Luka Doncic were tasked with handling PG duties. He's athletic for his size and would have a huge height advantage on BDJ. He's a tremendous defender on the perimeter, and he has really good ballhandling skills. Maybe that doesn't flip the series, but I think it would have made things a lot more interesting. Maybe with BDJ's floor generalship stifled a little bit more, Phil Brooks would be in a position to score less, but I doubt even with Luka off of Brooks, there was much more room for Phil to do any damage.

[garbageman]

With three series in round 1 going to game 7, we can zoom in and take a close look at each series' final game. In terms of seeding, we had one 2-7 match, one 3-6 match, and one 4-5 match, and we're going to look at them in that order.

Heat vs. Suns

In a battle of the brothers that could've been way cooler if either of them checked in at all for the series, most would've predicted a Heat runaway given that the Heat won a tough Hardaway division and the Suns had a 37-45 record. However, the Suns record was a little deceptive as they played a good chunk of the season without their best player, Ben Franklin. Back for the series, I think it gets a little closer, even if Franklin himself kind of played like shit most of the time. In any case, it was a battle of computer vs. self as neither team submitted a depth chart possibly the entire season (though the Heat showed up for Round 2 already).

The series went right down home/away lines, and like the Pistons, the Suns just didn't have a great answer for David Leiker at the PG. Adams might have been the better matchup than Rainbolt, with Pearman starting at SG, but alas. I am looking forward to seeing Leiker vs. BDJ. That could be a really interesting matchup.


Magic vs. Pacers

This was a really good series, and I'm glad it went 7. I think what we saw here was a shell game where the Magic were guessing where De'Aaron Fox would be playing. Unfortunately, in game 7, they guessed wrong, and Fox feasted on the last guy the Magic wanted on him--Richard Hunt. In Soviet Russia Fox yous Hunt!

The Pacers maybe got a little overly cute with former Magic mainstay Josh Jackson playing point guard...for 48 minutes...but that didn't wind up hurting anything. With Fox at the 2 guard spot, also playing 48 minutes, no bench players even had a single minute in the backcourt for the Pacers. I'm not sure if this is a new trend or if it's been going on unnoticed (by me) for a while, but it doesn't seem to have failed anyone yet (coming up next, 45 minutes of Quintin Kidd).

In any case, the Magic know that if you want to win a ring, having the best player in the league helps. They had Boban and JJ at their primes. Both are a little older and worse for wear, and even though Bronny finally hit that purple/purple (and had a hell of a game in his own right), there's not a player in the Alpha confernece who's not a beta compared to Fox.


Wizards vs. Lakers

To be honest, I'm surprised that this one made it 7. I think the Wiz could've wrapped it up a little faster, but the Lakers got some real bang for their buck out of guys like Ernie Acuna and Dragan Bender all season long, and even in the playoffs. If you look at Delmar Lopez's numbers in the series, he wasn't the dominant force he needs to be to carry a series against a team with the Wizards talent.

One thing that stood out to me was that the Wizards never matched DPOY Quintin Kidd against Lopez. Even though Lopez had lackluster numbers, the Lakers made it to game 7, and I think what could've made a more convincing argument for the Wiz Kidd to finally play 45 minutes of pure SF is if Lopez got more touches. I'm not sure if this was the case throughout the series, but the Lakers did not end the series with Lopez as the ONLY key player. Instead, they had Dragan Bender and Acuna also keyed up. Had the Lakers played more with the ball going to Lopez in key situations more often, I think Delmar would have presented himself as more of a challenge to the Wiz squad.

Another option the Lakers always had but never used was Pistol Pete at PG. He's been at SG all year and been somewhat quiet from there. With his size and his passing and ballhandling, he's at least worth a shot running the offense, just like he used to back in the good ol' days before his leg got broke.

Still, 7 games is a success for a Lakers team that got rid of Jerry West, especially considering that the Wiz have a tough frontcourt pair in Cuomo (perhaps a top 5 DPOY candidate to go along with Kidd) and Shareef O'Neal, who is the shorter of the 2 players at a measly 7'4". The Wiz are going to have a tougher test against the top seeded Spurs, but I'm looking forward to that matchup.

[garbageman]

Bulls vs. Jazz

I don't think it's a real surprise that the first elimination of the 2nd round was a sweep to a team that was on auto-pilot. Sure, there are a bunch of tough dads out there with their red hats, who have sworn off the NFL until players stop kneeling who will tell you that participation trophies are ruining America.

However, had Gary participated, he probably would've had a better chance at an actual trophy. Mind you, as the team with the worst remaining record in the second round, it would've been an uphill battle against the team with the best record in the league, but in 4 games, the Jazz outrebounded the Bulls twice and shot better than the Bulls from the 3 point line thrice. In two games, they even shot better from the floor overall. A lot of the problems came down to turnovers and personal fouls. The Jazz coughed the ball up more than the Bulls in every game, and aside from one game where both teams had 20 fouls, the Jazz were putting the Bulls to the line at a crazy clip.

In the closest game, the Bulls squeaked out a 1 point victory, aided by going 36-40 in the line. That's a lot of shots and a lot of makes, and maybe a tweak to that gameplan, and the Jazz would still be alive.

[garbageman]

Pelicans vs. Heat

I would've guessed that this was a series that would've gone a full 7 after the Pelicans finished the season stronger than they started with BDJ on their roster. So WTF Happened?

Well, for one, BDJ was held enough in check with David Leiker on him. BDJ is fantastic and has had a great career, but at this point in time, David Leiker is the better of the two PGs and if he's not the best point guard in the game, he's only not by the slimmest of margins. While Greg Haddock made BDJ look like he'd discovered a fountain of youth, Leiker stifled him. BDJ didn't have a double-double the entire series. BDJ was in consistent foul trouble throughout the series and only played more than 30 minutes in a single game. Leiker just outplayed him, pretty much every game.

But it's not just on BDJ. The larger problem was that the Pelicans were just not effective on defense. The Heat shot .539 from the field the whole series. Fortre and A.C. Williams are both considered to be more solid at post defense than the Pelicans backcourt is at perimeter defense, which you'd think would be a boon against a team with subpar three point shooting, but the Heat's backcourt was able to beat the defense inside and get to the line with regularity.

New Orleans was baffled on defense the entire series. I'm not sure there's much obvious that could've stopped that, but I did notice that the Pelicans never played man-to-man defense on Miami. That might not have solved anything, but even though Man defense didn't work on the Heat early in the regular season, it might've been worth a try with the rest of the gameplan focused specifically on the Heat.

[garbageman]

Bucks vs. Pacers

I don't think it's a surprise that this series went 7, and even less surprising--the home team had the edge here. Even though the Pacers had the better regular season record, the Bucks sliming their way into first place in a less stacked division, earned the right to play in Milwaukee for 4 out of 7 games, and that's how they won. Even with home court, though, it's possible to see the Bucks as a slight underdog, simply because the Pacers have the best player in the game, De'Aaron Fox. While neither outcome to this series would've been unfeasible, WTF happened?

Well, I think that we can trace the success of this series back to the offseason. The Pacers lost John Stoll in the offseason, and while Josh Jackson made a vexing adversary at times when the Pacers would play him at PG, John Stoll would've put the Pacers far over the top. They wouldn't have beat the Bucks because they would've beat the Spurs in the regular season for the division and had better positioning going in.

But that's ancient history. The series was pretty close--even if only one game was decided by less than 10 points. Each team was dominant at home. The Bucks just had more home games. And in the last one, the player that made the Pacers a threat also showed his one weakness...turnovers. He had a triple-double in points, assists, and turnovers. And since so much of the offense went through Fox, those turnovers were costly. The Bucks had less rebounds by far than the Pacers, but the Pacers turned the ball over left and right, and with no other defensive scheme than Man, Ja Morant was able to shred the offense with his passing.

I'm not sure that Pauly could've done anything that would have guaranteed more success. The games in this series were all decisively for the home team, no matter what anyone tried...or didn't try. Doug showed some good decision-making by staying remarkably consistent, knowing that his original gameplan brought him success on home court.

[garbageman]

Wizards vs. Spurs

And wrapping up the second round, the more chaotic of the two Alpha 2nd round series. The Spurs were almost unanimous favorites to win the division after their hot start, going undefeated in the first sim, and they ended up the 1st seed in Alpha, enjoying a 1st round bye. They were a strong favorite to cruise to the finals, and they got off to a 3-1 start, so WTF happened?

Well, the Wizards played Dino Washington at PG the whole series, and aside from his STL rating against Yandells high-50 HND, I had questioned that decision. Then, before games 5 and 6, the Wizards pulled an ultimate hail mary and put 6'3 Tony Cucone--an ideal PG candidate--at SF so Kidd could play SG.

Off two performances where Quintin Kidd torched the Spurs at SG, the series got tied up at 3. Proving he was the best player in the series, he won player of the game honors in game 7 as well, where xist switched him back to SF. On the other side, Eazy switched Yandell to SF, probably hoping to use his height against Cucone and probably hoping to move a less used offensive piece against Quintin Kidd to nullify his defensive effect. Unfortunately for Eazy, xist's move cancelled his move out, putting Yandell against the reigning DPOY.

The straw that may have broke the camel's back might have been the game 6 injury to Robert Bonnett. I don't think Bonnett's absence really led to field days for the Wizards' gigantic frontcourt pair of O'Neal and Cuomo, but it did stretch the Spurs bench a little thinner. The rarely used Wiz 2nd unit is young and a little weak compared to the teams that are left, so losing Bonnett bumped Fortunato up to starter level and the 2nd unit wasn't able to be too impactful in games 6 and especially 7, where the deeper team's 2nd unit wasn't able to make up the difference.

[garbageman]

Well, we're in the Finals now, and I'm just going to let those play out, but what happened to get us there? Not rocket science.

Bulls vs. Heat

David Leiker is an excellent player. For some reason, though, Silky Johnson has had his number all year long. Silky was player of the game in 3 out of the 4 regular season victories over the Heat (the Bulls lost a 5th) and he was also player of the game in 3 out of the 4 conference finals victories over the Heat (the Bulls lost a 5th). At the other positions, the Heat are young. Guys like Miguel Thomas, Scott Leonard, and Frederic Hughes all look very good, but in a playoff series, Grayson Allen (who was relatively quiet), RJ Barrett, and Erik Haynes are all pretty battle-tested. I'd take them any day (and I did) and so did the simputer.


Wizards vs. Bucks

The Wiz have been hacking and slashing their way to the Finals, and their gravest victim? Ja Morant. Morant went down early on in game 2, and while the Bucks went on to win that one, nobody else on their team can even think about throwing a pass without turning the ball over. Morant was the best player on the Bucks, and losing him hurt badly. The Bucks stretched it to 6, but they couldn't overcome the loss of a true leader. Also, Kidd's been playing out of his mind this playoff season. At this point, I think it's clear that only De'Aaron Fox is a better player, and with Fox out of the playoffs, he's the best player standing, and they'll go as far as Kidd can take them.

[false9]

+9, but only because you're capped