2034 NBA Draft Current Player Comparisons

[Bowtothebill23]

With the playoffs right around the corner, it means it’s time for the best part of the season. That’s right folks, it’s draft season! I’m kidding of course, maybe… I think. Anyway, I’ve been wanting to write an article for a while, but with my newness to the new league, I couldn’t come up with a topic. So instead of trying to put my uneducated opinions out there, I just made the computer form opinions for me.

I built a “Draft Prospect Comparison” tool in Excel. The methodology actually wasn’t too complex. I took the height, weight, athleticism, and potential for each potential draftee and found comparisons from current PBSL players. Because “potentials” are fairly vague letter grades, I used 90 ratigns for A potentials, 70 for B, 50 for C, 30 for D, and 10 for F. I then just took the absolute value difference of each rating for each draftee compared to every player currently on a roster. I accounted for weight and athleticism similarly. For height, I just assumed a one-inch difference in height as a 10 attribute point difference. For example, a player who is 6’6 with an 80 inside rating is, at the start, 35 points different than a player who is 6’9 with a 75 inside rating.

This methodology obviously isn’t perfect. For example. If Player A is 5 points higher in every category than Player B and 5 points lower in every category in Player C, those will be equal comparisons even though the difference between Players B and C are fairly significant.

A key note on the methodology, this only compares players as they are in the 2033-2034 PBSL season. For example, if a player’s comparison is Anthony Davis, that does not mean we should expect an Anthony Davis career. Rather, it means we should expect that player’s prime year(s) to be similar to Anthony Davis’ age 40 season in PBSL.

With that, let’s get into the comparisons. I simply went down the mock draft to determine the order. Don’t read too much into that. I only did writeups for the blue potential players (and the two greens in the top 10). I gave comparables for each of the top 20 players though.

Player: Larry Duley, PF

Comparisons:
1) Chris Pallies, Magic
2) Jaren Jackson Jr., Bulls
3) A.C. Williams, Nuggets
4) Fredric Hughes, Heat
5) DeAndre Ayton, Trailblazers
6) Scot Bulter, Lakers
7) Erik Haynes, Hawks
8) Marvin Bagley III, Magic
9) Daron Hord, Thunder
10) Deuce Fortre, Pelicans

Notes: I have to admit, I’m a little disappointed for a guy currently projected to go #1 overall. He doesn’t’ have a “bust” comparison, but there’s not a lot that leaves you salivating here. Pallies is solidly the top comparable, followed relatively closely by Jackson Jr. and Williams and then another gap. Jaren Jackson Jr. is probably the best you can hope for out of this group: an efficient 18 point per game scorer who’s a pretty great rebounder and rim protector as well. He’s also the one guy on this list with a PER > 20.


Player: Paul Cassel, PF

Comparisons:
1) Simon Pheonix, Timberwolves
2) Jack Fredericks, Mavericks
3) Joe Futrell, Nuggets
4) Fredric Hughes, Heat
5) Andrew Baldwin, Nets
6) Cheick Diallo, Clippers
7) Bertram Pugh, Bucks
8) Jaren Jackson Jr., Bulls
9) Chad Marsh, Pacers
10) John Sylvia, Jazz

Notes: Something that jumps out to me right off the bat is that Cassel is much harder to peg than Duley. Cassel’s closest comparison is still a more distant comparison than #10 for Duley. The next thing that jumps out is that there is some farily legitimate “bust” potential among this group. For a guy who’s projected to go #2, there are three yellow currents on here as well as 5/10 who are spot players who don’t even start. It’s important to note again that Cassel seems to be a harder guy to peg so comparisons should be taken more likely, but it’s a scary proposition.


Player: David Thaxton, PG

Comparisons:
1) John Stoll, Pacers
2) Richard Hunt, Magic
3) Leonard Washington, Jazz
4) Glenn Irvine, 76ers
5) Josh Okogie, Mavericks
6) Ernie Acuna, Lakers
7) Tyler Ulis, Cavaliers
8) Jerry West, Nuggets
9) Quintin Kidd, Wizards
10) Len Bias, Jazz

Notes: This is another where the comparisons aren’t extremely close, in large part due to Thaxton’s size. Many of these guys have similar skills to Thaxton, but Thaxton’s size will cause variances. Stoll is easily the best comparison of the bunch as the size isn’t a huge discrepancy and skill sets are somewhat similar. So far though, these are the best comparisons we have. Ulis is Y/Y right now, but he’s still an effective player. Jerry West is low down the list, but he’s the first purple player we’ve seen in the top 10. In this list we have a bunch of guys with PER’s around 20.


Player: Chris Bevins, SG

Comparisons:
1) Romeo Langford, Spurs
2) Norris Turney, Bulls
3) Chris Ridley, Cavaliers
4) Pete Maravich, Thunder
5) Jerry West, Nuggets
6) James Shaffer, Pistons
7) Bryce Dejean-Jones, Kings
8) John Stoll, Pacers
9) Leonard Washington, Jazz
10) Jonathan Lewis, Spurs

Notes: two straight without great comparisons, Bevins has a couple comparisons the model deems closer, particularly his top two. Bevins has some interesting comparisons. The top few and bottom few are fine above average starters, but he has a middle tier of pretty great-elite players. I think this would show he has at least a shot at stardom.


Player: Marcel McAlister, SF

Comparisons:
1) Gary Loredo, Bulls
2) William Pearman, Suns
3) Jonathan Lewis, Spurs
4) Geoff Rickly, Mavericks
5) Carlton Gamble, Jazz
6) Burt Gibson, Mavericks
7) Norris Turney, Bulls
8) Cam Reddish, Kings
9) Leonard Washington, Jazz
10) Aubrey Bynum, Hawks

Notes: With McAlister, we have the closest comparisons since Duley at #1. All 10 of these guys are closer than the closest comparisons for Cassel and Thaxton. This is probably the most straightforward group we have too. No one stands out as a great player or someone who would scream “bust.” The player stats for everyone are so similar as well: good scoring but doesn’t provide a ton else. Based on this, McAlister might be one of the safer “you know what you’re getting” guys in the draft.


Player: Ferguson Olney, SG

Comparisons:
1) Carlton Gamble, Jazz
2) Clifton Cage, Mavericks
3) Norris Turney, Bulls
4) Nicolas Flesher, Lakers
5) Carl Howard, Clippers
6) Tyler Ulis, Cavaliers
7) Nicolas Posner, Wizards
8) Andrew Wiggins, Bulls
9) Kurt Carter, Raptors
10) William Pearman, Suns

Notes: Olney is a guy with some decent comparables. Unfortunately, those comparisons leave a good bit to be desired. There really isn’t anyone on this list you’d classify as more than an “average starter” right now. There’s only one player averaging over 16 points per game this year, and there’s a couple busts splattered in there as well.


Player: Darrin Nagel, C

Comparisons:
1) Charlie Porter, Spurs
2) Thomas Edison, Jazz
3) Randy Abney, Nuggets
4) Harvey Daniels, Timberwolves
5) Deuce Fortre, Pelicans
6) A.C. Williams, Nuggets
7) Elisha Davis, Magic
8) Ernest Long, Raptors
9) Felix Ireland, Heat
10) Christopher Fortunato, Pacers

Notes: With Nagel, you’re hoping those near the bottom of his top 10 comparisons are closer to reality than the top. Of the top 4 comparisons, all are either G/G and/or don’t play major minutes. Long and Fortunato, however, represent some tantalizing potential should Nagel hit his peak.


Player: Bradley Isenberg, SG

Comparisons:
1) Burt Gibson, Mavericks
2) Daniel Yandell, Spurs
3) Chris Ridley, Cavaliers
4) John Carlisle, 76ers
5) Carlton Gamble, Jazz
6) Arthur Cornish, Pistons
7) Slim Jenkins, Nets
8) Ed Monix, Rockets
9) Norris Turney, Bulls
10) Spencer Haberman, Wizards

Notes: Of everyone so far, Isenberg has by far the closest comparisons. His top two are the closest of anyone on this list so far. If you made a list of the top 10 comparisons to date, 8 would belong to Isenberg. Slim Jenkins is the guy who makes you raise your eyebrows and dream of being able to grab a guy like Isenberg at his projected draft slot of #8. But right below him is Ed Monix, who played less than 10 minutes per game on the 29-53 Rockets. For a guy with such solid comparables, you just wish they’d be more inspiring than below average starting wings.


Player: Clyde Jones, SF

Comparisons:
1) Michael Hunt, Jazz
2) Dennis Williams, Thunder
3) Andrew Luckey, Cavaliers
4) Scott Lawson, Cavaliers
5) Andrew Wiggins, Bulls
6) Corey Brooks, Trailblazers
7) William Pearman, Suns
8) Mark Hill, Pelicans
9) Hans Gillum, Knicks
10) Tony Joseph, Wizards

Notes: These are the second best comparisons in the draft, right after Isenberg. His first two comparisons are fine players, but there are an extreme amount of bust potential in the players that follow. His next four players likely aren’t even rotation pieces right now. Pearman breaks the streak, giving him a little more hope with his dim comparisons.


Player: Brian May, SG

Comparisons:
1) Nicholas Horsley, Bulls
2) Arthur Cornish, Pistons
3) Gary Loredo, Bulls
4) John Carlisle, 76ers
5) Spencer Haberman, Wizards
6) Leonard Washington, Jazz
7) Ash Ketchum, Rockets
8) James Gebhart, Heat
9) Delmar Lopez, Lakers
10) Jonathan Lewis, Spurs

Notes: As we’re going down the list, it seems like we’re getting more solid comparisons (likely since we’re hitting more of a medium-ground where there are more players currently in the NBA). This is an enticing group of players. It’s crazy how similar comparisons spit out complete non-factors and 20 point per game scorers like Lewis. Compared to some of the recent guys though, May has a pretty good set of comparables. He could be an exciting Green potential draft pick.


Player: Dwayne Palacio, PF

Comparisons:
1) Kaleb Wesson, Nets
2) Elliot Radke, Pelicans
3) Andre Nickels, Raptors
4) Isaiah Stewart, Trailblazers
5) Randy Abney, Nuggets
6) John Sylvia, Jazz
7) Jack Fredericks, Mavericks
8) Wilburn Clark, Bucks
9) Thomas Epley, Knicks
10) Kendall Prine, Hawks

Notes: He’s no Isenberg, but Palacio does have some fairly close comparisons, probably 2nd/3rd best of any of the blues. With that said, I’d suggest shielding your eyes as there isn’t a single player in Palacio’s top 10 comparisons that even plays half the game. There’s no wonder the game is projecting multiple green potentials to be drafted above him come draft time.


Player: Mike Burnham, C

Comparisons:
1) Jonathan Constantino, Raptors
2) Kristaps Porzingis, Knicks
3) Thomas Edison, Jazz
4) Coy Johnson, Rockets
5) Jame Hector, Nets
6) Jer�nimo Vidal, Lakers
7) Wiley Paris, Bucks
8) Modestine Degrimonpon, Rockets
9) Scot Bulter, Lakers
10) Harvey Daniels, Timberwolves


Player: Arthur Rex, SF

Comparisons:
1) Lino Brookins, Pacers
2) Aubrey Bynum, Hawks
3) Tua Tagovailoa, Jazz
4) James Barton, 76ers
5) William Pearman, Suns
6) Spencer Haberman, Wizards
7) Paul McWhite, Heat
8) Jordan Johnson, Suns
9) Delmar Lopez, Lakers
10) Eric Koch, Kings


Player: Damon Green, PG

Comparisons:
1) Trae Young, Pelicans
2) Nicholas Horsley, Bulls
3) James Gebhart, Heat
4) Josh Okogie, Mavericks
5) Ash Ketchum, Rockets
6) Gregory Haddock, Nets
7) Douglas Desrochers, Timberwolves
8) John Blakemore, Trailblazers
9) Clay Waters, Thunder
10) Leroy Haugh, Bucks


Player: Ciriaco Izquierdo, SF

Comparisons:
1) Obi Toppin, 76ers
2) Ronnie Reynolds, Pacers
3) William Pearman, Suns
4) Richard Erickson, Spurs
5) Laurence Runyon, Hawks
6) Clarence Reyes, Rockets
7) Gary Loredo, Bulls
8) Ronald Haile, Cavaliers
9) James Terry, Mavericks
10) Ronald Jordan, Spurs


Player: Orville Gardner, C

Comparisons:
1) Charlie Porter, Spurs
2) Kaleb Wesson, Nets
3) Thomas Ahearn, Bulls
4) Mark Barr, Jazz
5) Jules Harms, Cavaliers
6) Randy Abney, Nuggets
7) Kent Alexander, Knicks
8) OG Anunoby, Timberwolves
9) Daron Hord, Thunder
10) Mike Piazza, Spurs


Player: Eric Manuel, PF

Comparisons:
1) Micheal Essex, Rockets
2) Augustine Gillispie, Thunder
3) Gerald Kerns, Nuggets
4) Loyd Gilley, Jazz
5) Joe Asher, Suns
6) Kevin Gray, Mavericks
7) Scot Bulter, Lakers
8) Kevin Stephan, Wizards
9) Felix Ireland, Heat
10) Joseph Baker, Pistons


Player: Chris Brister, C

Comparisons:
1) Harvey Daniels, Timberwolves
2) Coy Johnson, Rockets
3) Wiley Paris, Bucks
4) John Carter, Pistons
5) Charlie Porter, Spurs
6) Jer�nimo Vidal, Lakers
7) Micheal Essex, Rockets
8) Kristaps Porzingis, Knicks
9) Daron Hord, Thunder
10) Kevin Brown, Jazz


Player: Rod Keane, PF

Comparisons:
1) Kerry Powell, Heat
2) Joseph McKnight, Timberwolves
3) OG Anunoby, Timberwolves
4) Mark Barr, Jazz
5) Michael Valero, Knicks
6) John Sylvia, Jazz
7) Thomas Epley, Knicks
8) Kent Alexander, Knicks
9) Jer�nimo Vidal, Lakers
10) Joe Asher, Suns


Player: Eloy Tilton, C

Comparisons:
1) Durant Badham, Spurs
2) Marius Hemm, Mavericks
3) Scot Bulter, Lakers
4) John Sylvia, Jazz
5) Joe Asher, Suns
6) Felix Ireland, Heat
7) Gerald Kerns, Nuggets
8) Wilburn Clark, Bucks
9) Loyd Gilley, Jazz
10) Micheal Essex, Rockets

[IamQuailman]

This is pretty cool man! Good stuff! Glad to see you back writing articles again... next up, POD CAST?!!?

[Bowtothebill23]

This is pretty cool man! Good stuff! Glad to see you back writing articles again... next up, POD CAST?!!?

I'm free this weekend. Just need a co-host...

[IamQuailman]

This is pretty cool man! Good stuff! Glad to see you back writing articles again... next up, POD CAST?!!?

I'm free this weekend. Just need a co-host...

@NOLa. @IamQuailman (o) (o) (eyeballs, not boobies)

[Bowtothebill23]

This is pretty cool man! Good stuff! Glad to see you back writing articles again... next up, POD CAST?!!?

I'm free this weekend. Just need a co-host...

@NOLa. @IamQuailman (o) (o) (eyeballs, not boobies)

[garbageman]

Great article, but what's the NBA?

[false9]

7 points