Let's take a look at the restricted free agents this year and the likelihood that they leave there current team:
Tim Duncan (Utah Jazz)
As a top power forward in the league, Tim Duncan is an asset that any team would want. He is the future in Utah, and I don’t see them letting him walk away. I anticipate Duncan to be offered the Supermax from the Jazz
Chance of leaving: 0/10
Tracy McGrady (Sacramento Kings)
One of the most ideal aspects of McGrady is his age. At only 20 years old, he has two supermax deals before he hits the dreaded 30 years old. With the current state of the Kings being Gilbert Arenas, I expect them to sign McGrady to a supermax and start the build around the two guards.
Chance of leaving: 0/10
Chauncey Billups (Toronto Raptors)
Chauncey Billups is a really good point guard in the league that still has so much potential to develop. He is definitely going to get a max offer from some team in the league. I do not anticipate the Raptors giving a supermax, but rather putting a 4 year contract for slightly below max price to try to get a steal. The biggest issue with the Raptors getting Billups is salary. I think that Soundwave will try to negotiate a pretty sizeable S&T, but if he doesn’t get what he thinks he deserves, Chauncey will be back in Toronto.
Chance of leaving: 1/10
Keith Van Horn (Phoenix Suns)
The Suns have been open with the fact that they want to build around the young core of Van Horn, O’neal, and Iverson. Look for Van Horn to get offered a max from another team, but the Suns will most likely match. The only way he won’t match is if he gets a truckload from S&T.
Chance of leaving: 0.5/10
Antonio Daniels (Sacramento Kings)
I see this being our first casualty of free agency. We have a King’s team that have a large amount of cap space, but will already have a superstar SG coming from this draft. Unless nobody offers a large contract, we will see Daniels in new colors next year. If the offer is meager, look for Sacramento to match on discount. Expect the first Sign and Trade to come from this player.
Chance of leaving: 8.5/10
Anthony Johnson (Indiana Pacers)
AJ has the size and quickness to be a good two way PG in the league. His age means this may be his last large contract, but a solid PG is still important in this league. I think this piece is an important part of the Indiana Pacers going forward. I don’t expect them to super max Johnson, but losing him to another team seems unlikely.
Chance of leaving: 1/10
Tim Thomas (Chicago Bulls)
Salary Cap is the biggest threat to Thomas staying a Bull. He is a big portion of this Chicago team and is becoming a top power forward in the west. He still has the potential to become one of the top 5 power forwards in the league. I don’t see a circumstance where Thomas leaves Chi-town, but this could happen. I would expect a lot coming from a sign and trade if one does happen.
Chance of leaving: 1.5/10
Alvin Williams (Washington Wizards)
The Wizards need a starting point guard. Simple as that. However, I don’t know that Alvin is worth a max contract here. I also don’t think anyone is going to offer him that size of a contract. If the contract starts at 6.5 mill or under, I could see the Wizards matching. If they aren’t going to match, I could see this one going without a S&T because a team can try to get more assets out of Washington than other teams. Ultimately, I think he goes, but in a very close decision.
Chance of leaving 6/10
Rick Brunson (Denver Nuggets)
This player is an interesting one. He has middle of the line potential offensively, but has good handles and defensive prowess. Where he excels is his size and quickness. On a team that currently doesn’t have a point guard on roster, the Nuggets are trying to get a steal with this player. Hoping that nobody wants him as the second tier point guard of free agency, Denver could end up getting this good defensive player on the cheap. I do believe they have a number that they refuse to go over.
Chance of leaving 3/10