What I'm watching down the stretch

[WigNosy]

With the trade deadline having passed and - except at the bubble fringe of the playoffs - most teams now clearly sorted into the "playoff push" or "rebuild" crowds, I thought it would be fruitful to take a look at what kinds of things people are likely to be watching as we make our stretch run to the playoffs when it comes to wins and losses. I'll also put in some comments on what I think is likely to happen.

1. THE NUGGETS CHASING THE REGULAR-SEASON WINS RECORD

Ryan has been fairly chatty on Skype this season and with good reason - nobody was willing to offer big contracts to his defensive lockdown frontcourt to force him to either overpay or lose his core and it's meant that he was able to bring back a key component of his title team from last season on the relative cheap. Add to that the fact that he was able to grab Gustave Delacroix from the Lakers to reinforce his scoring punch in the backcourt and you have a Nuggets team that locks teams down on the defensive end and has had the scoring depth to withstand injuries - and is now chasing the record for regular-season wins. I don't suspect Ryan will let his foot off the gas when he clinches home-court throughout the playoffs - he's made it quite clear that he wants to put up accomplishments that the rest of the league will have to acknowledge (probably because of all the smack talk about Los Angeles sports fans). Likely outcome: The Nuggets have already survived injuries to Jerry West and Bismack Biyombo at different times. Barring multiple injuries to key players simultaneously (e.g., West and Duren) the Nuggets will probably be able to set a new mark for regular season wins.

2. THE EASTERN CONFERENCE PLAYOFF SEEDING

Technically, all 8 teams currently in the Eastern conference playoff picture could finish with the best record in the conference - only 6 losses separate the Nets from the Magic and we still have about 17 games to go. Generally, I prefer watching point differential as a likely indicator of success more than wins and losses, and by that measure, the streaking Magic (on a 14-game win streak to take the lead in the East) probably have the inside track on finishing with the top seed. The Magic, like the Nuggets, have benefitted from having talent on the cheap (in the case of the Magic, an MLE-signed DeSean Hawkins who has been a great second option behind Boban). The Magic, of course, will be in line to finally have to pay Boban his due in RFA this season but they've got a solid contending core for the foreseeable future.

Giving the Magic the inside track may sound kind of weird to say, especially when remembering the 76ers started the season 21-1 and have since been basically a .500 team (21 and 19), but the look at the 76ers' point differential - 4.9 - and you realize they are in real danger of being caught and passed by the Celtics, who are just 2 games back but sport a healthier 6.2 point differential. As usual, the Celtics are running with a very limited crew to minimize their luxury tax exposure, but a single injury could be a tough blow both for basketball reasons and for tax exposure. The Celtics are extremely strong in scoring and rebounding and the 76ers haven't shown themselves as truly elite in any one area, which means I think the Celtics have a very good shot at running the Sixers down and taking the division crown and knocking the 76ers into the 4/5 side of the bracket (and a second round match against the Magic). However, I have should admit while I like them in the regular season, I am a little worried with the Celtics when it comes to the postseason - they have a very clear weakness in that they are extremely turnover prone and don't force a lot of turnovers (29th in the league in turnover differential and last in the league in steal differential). That may not hurt them in the regular season but if they get into a matchup with a pressing team that takes care of the ball in the playoffs it could be a real problem.

And of course the Central has been a three-horse race all year, with the Bulls and Bucks both stalking the Pistons and the Bucks actually boasting the second-best point differential in the East at 8.1 despite currently sitting in the 6 seed. I hesitate to pick the Bucks to run down the Bulls and Pistons, however; their closing schedule is somewhat unfavorable because most of the non-playoff teams they face will see them on the road, while most of their home games are against strong opponents (their late-April stretch against the Pistons twice, Kings, and 76ers twice - with a road game at Chicago and a probable-win home game against the Hawks - is a perfect example of this). The Bulls have a more favorable split of home games and the Pistons have the advantage of, for the most part, playing weaker competition at the end of their schedule, so I think the Bucks will have a very hard time climbing to the top of the division and getting a top-3 seed, though I could see them moving up from the 6 spot. The Wizards have been hot of late but I see them cooling off in the stretch run - because they've got only 5 home games left but 15(!) road games remaining on their schedule.

The Nets have a more favorable home/road split on their schedule but do have a tougher slate of opponents, so I can seen them leapfrogging the Wizards into 7th, but I don't think they're going to realistically be able to run anyone else down. And while theoretically the Raptors could go on a late-season run to try to get into the post-season, I don't see it out of them, either - they have 6 home games and 14 road games left and that's going to hurt their chances of getting off the bubble and into the playoffs. Everyone else is too far back to make a run.

3. THE WESTERN CONFERENCE'S 8TH PLAYOFF SPOT

Somehow, the #8 spot in the West is currently occupied by the Warriors, with a sterling 24-39 record (this would be the same as the Bobcats, who are 13th in the East). If you want to know why the East doesn't respect the West, look no farther than this - the fact that over half the West is in the "tanking" camp. The Mavericks are half game back and the Thunder and Suns are both within 2 games in the loss column. The 8th seed is going to come down to which team does the least effective job tanking, which is just plain sad. I thought about analyzing each team's schedule before realizing it really doesn't matter - whoever gets in is going to have a much worse draft pick than they should AND get rolled by the Nuggets. It's just not an outcome any of them want - but most of these teams aren't even paying attention, so if they don't care, why should I?

4. THE JAZZ WIN TOTAL

The Nuggets are chasing history with wins, but the Jazz are chasing history with losses. Will they be able to beat the 77 losses tallied in 2000 by the then-Sonics (now Thunder)? They are on a 40-game losing streak... but I'm going to go out on a limb here and say there's a good chance they pick up at least one win over their final 19 games. This is only because they have two matchups with the 9-win Grizzlies, including one at home, they have two matchups with the absentee 16-win Lakers (again, one at home), and three matchups with the 18-win Clippers (two on the road and one at home) and also have the 24-win Bobcats at home. You figure with 8 shots at teams that are almost as bad as they are, and half of those shots at home, at some point, the Jazz have to stumble into a win, right? Right?

5. THE HAWKS NOT IN THE POSTSEASON

This past sim, as the Hawks passed 33 losses, it became guaranteed that for the first time in 19 seasons, the Hawks will not post 50 wins, and it's increasingly unlikely the Hawks will be in the postseason. I'm sure this is cause for rejoicing around the East, because I'm sure most people are sick of the Hawks posting winning seasons year after year. The thing is, the Hawks are 7-3 over their last 10 games and even though management has traded away some of the win-now players in favor of younger assets, the coaching staff is still doing what they can to win games with the talent still on the roster (I'm aware management and the coaching staff are the same person - but it's always been the way I roll - I can't sit talent to tank, I can trade it away but I will do the best to squeeze wins out of what's left). The Hawks probably SHOULD tank and sit their better players, but they're not going to. Even though it's highly unlikely they will make the playoffs at this point, I am (probably the only one) interested to see how the Hawks do as they come down the stretch. Since re-vamping their roster, they've been pretty formidable at home and pretty awful on the road (a mark of an inconsistent young team). They've got an equal number of home and road games left. Can they manage a 11-7 finish to at least stay .500? (spoiler: I think the answer is no - they have several games against playoff teams with something to play for down the stretch).

[TheSyndicate]

Award you no points you reverse cursin son of a gun

[NOLa.]

Jeez Wig that 50+ win streak is probably the most impressive record I can think of considering how most of us will do quick rebuilds/resets for a season or two. Good stuff.


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[digiskunk]

Holy shit, I'm on pace to break a record!? If I can pull this off, it'll be my greatest accomplishment.

[garbageman]

Dig the article, Wig!

[IamQuailman]

1,658 words... 7pts for you! Good read wig!