Will He Stay or Will He Go: A 2020 Free Agency Speculative Analysis

[IamQuailman]

The sequel to last year's hit article that was pretty spot on if I don't say so myself... Your favorite FA Speculative Analysis "Will He Stay or Will He Go" is BACK! Last year's UFA was stacked, but this year is just as enticing as last (and then some)! Some contenders may be breaking up, while others are going to get built up. I'm going to break down our top UFA targets (read: Blue Potential or Better) into 5 categories and predict what I think will happen to each of your top targets.

Young and the Restless (also known as Sign-And-Trade Bait)
These players are in their primes, looking for their next big contract. Problem is each player's previous team is in a state of potential flux/reset and have been actively entertaining Sign & Trade opportunities. This Young Studs just want to know where they hell they will actually be, as the potential trade may not come right away.

C.J. McCollum: Blazers have been very open about trading CJ, well before the end of the post-season. Perhaps that (plus the hipster-influenced poor cohesion in Portland) swayed CJ in opting out and trying his luck in FA. But Portland won't let him go that easy. They are more than willing to dangle the big bucks in front of him in order to convince CJ to help them get something in return. While McCollum is a dominant scoring guard, he's a bit of a sieve on the defensive end. There is no guarantee that McCollum fetches a max on the open market, and he may be pressed to take the Portland money (especially if there's a team that truly wants him).
Quail's Crystal Ball Prediction: Super Maxed by Portland and traded before start of Round 2 UFA

Bradley Beal: After the sudden abandonment by longtime GM Fearthebrow, Bradley Beal isn't really sure what this team's direction is. The League Office and Stewards have stepped in to mitigate the damage of franchise value due to FTB's departure. With the dealing of Ricky Rubio to the Pelicans, it is clear that competing immediately is NOT the focus of this team of stewards. Rather than letting Beal walk for nothing, they will absolutely without a doubt hand him a supermax and dare him to not take it.
Quail's Crystal Ball Prediction: Super Maxed by Dallas but not traded immediately (sometime in the season will be more likely)

Harrison Barnes: The Sixers took the Suns to a Game 7 in the NBA Finals where their core's age and inexperience were just not enough to counter the domination of Kevin Love and James Harden. With that, the always fiscally responsible GM Balls O'Hard is taking a season to reset their cap situation. This is a precarious situation for Barnes, as he still fills a need for the Sixers. Barnes's ability to play the 3 and 4 is something that the GM values highly, but not to the point where he will go into a luxury tax situation to retain. With max space available for pretty much everyone, it would be risky to sign Barnes to a big deal... however, they are very much open to a S&T opportunity and have been quietly been entertaining offers.
Quail's Crystal Ball Prediction: Barnes signs elsewhere to a bigger offer than Balls is willing to pay. Balls wishes him well.

Oldies But Goodies
On the wrong side of 31, these players could go back to their previous teams... if the Price is Right. (BOM BOM BUBOWWWWWWWWWWM)

Ish Smith: Small-ish Point Guard (see what i did there?) with the ability to facilitate an offense and play some above average defense, Ish Smith has made himself a household name in the northern Mid-West. However, with GM JNR moving on from Otto Porter Jr, it's apparent that they are more than willing to part with players who were once "cornerstones" but not named Wiggins. There was some concern last year during training camp that Ish could see some drop off. It wasn't too bad last year, but sources close to Minnesota have noticed some diminishing in his athleticism over the last couple seasons.
Quail's Crystal Ball Prediction: Signs with a contender, but not with the T-wolves.

Spencer Hawes: A pleasant big man surprise for the Kings last season. They once again brought back Spencer Hawes on a severely underrated deal, and Hawes was a critical part of their playoff run last season (before the injury bug bit 'em good). A good locker room guy for the Kings and mentor for their young center Hayes, Spencer would be willing to take another cut to stay in Sacramento, but are the Kings interested in bringing him back?
Quail's Crystal Ball Prediction: Signs with an Eastern Conference team; Kings don't even bother offering since having 2 players with 4 of the 5 same letters in their last name was too confusing for jersey makers.

Greg Oden: An important part of the Nuggets magical run last season, Greg Oden would love to return to the playoffs with the Nuggets and continue to be a solid contributor. Problem is... no one knows what the trigger-happy Nuggets will do. In the blink of an eye, the direction of the franchise could change in an instant. Bringing Oden back is solely contingent on Jrue and Blake staying in the Mile High City.
Quail's Crystal Ball Prediction: Oden re-signs with a portion of the MLE.

Brandon Jennings: 30 right now, but 31 before the season starts, Jennings will be looking for a new home, as he fell out of favor with the Sixers. Sources close to Jennings say that Brandon was tired of being referred to as a chucker by the Sixers organization.
Quail's Crystal Ball Prediction: Jennings signs elsewhere in the East, most likely in the Atlantic.

Kyle Lowry: The ageless wonder continues to be a dominant force on the court. Many wonder when Lowry's age will catch up with him, with some even asking that he get tested for PEDs. Regardless, Lowry will be in high demand this off-season, and the Pelicans have no need for him with Ricky Rubio now leading their squad.
Quail's Crystal Ball Prediction: Lowry signs anywhere but New Orleans, citing the desire to the West Coast *double eye emoji*.

Al Horford: Horford has continued to perform at a high level, despite his age. However, times are changing in Houston, and they are looking to move in a new direction with Boris Hailey hopefully league as the anchor down low. Horford has expressed interest in retiring as a Rocket.
Quail's Crystal Ball Prediction: Re-signs with Rockets as GM 78 cannot love his secret love depart for nothing.

Black Hawk Down
3 big name Hawks are coming off the books and entering UFA. With the team looking to reset, is this the year the Hawks FINALLY miss the playoffs?!

Thomas Robinson: A staple at the 4 for the Hawks for the last season or 2, Robinson brings defense and rebounding on a team that is known for its defensive and rebounding identity. Robinson is only 29 years old and very easily has another 4yr contract worth of high-level contribution in him. Will GM WigNosy pull a min contract rabbit out his hat once again?
Quail's Crystal Ball Prediction: Robinson signs a 4-yr deal with the Pacers (fits that hardnose, defense-first Pacer mentality).

Draymond Green: Has Draymond been the most overpaid player in the league the last few seasons? He's definitely the glue guy that does everything and can play multiple positions. But what kind of value does he get on the open market?
Quail's Crystal Ball Prediction: Draymond signs a 1-yr deal for less than 6mil (most likely MLE with Hawks)

Khris Middleton: Another one of those size and scoring guys. Middleton had a great value contract in RFA last go around, but he's a UFA now and his value is kind of all over the place, when you ask around the league. He's still only 28 and in his prime. But the lack of rebounding and defense create pause with GMs.
Quail's Crystal Ball Prediction: Middleton signs out West on a 3yr deal and instantly regresses.

Washington's Famous DLT Sandwich
With Drummond, Lillard, and Thomas (all big name/big money) not on the roster as I type this, what will the crafty Washington GM do moving forward? Tough decisions ahead.

Andre Drummond: The almost-7-foot phenom is a menace in the paint, whether it was grabbing boards or swatting shots. That said, Andre Drummond is a perfect example of a player that stats don't justify the contract. His not top-tier rebound numbers are more of a result of being on a team surrounding by rebounders. His blocks numbers are above average, but nothing to write home about. He received a max in RFA because he was a player that had the potential to grow even more, but it appears he's plateaued. So what now? Xist2inspire traded for Aubrey Broomfield and signed Jarvis Chambers this off-season already. Can he really justify paying another player who isn't much of a contributor on the offensive side of the ball?
Quail's Crystal Ball Prediction: Drummond re-signs for on a 3yr, $15-ish mill/yr. Xist loves his big men.

Damian Lillard: One of the big reasons the Wizards swept the Pistons in the post-season, Lillard is one of the top guards in the league. He's more of an undersized 2-guard than a pure point guard, but he could play point guard in a pinch. With xist being committed to Deangelo Russell going forward, one of the 2 aging vet guards will be gone.
Quail's Crystal Ball Prediction: Lillard will sign a big money max deal elsewhere.

Isaiah Thomas: The OTHER big reason the Wizards swept the Pistons last post-season. Thomas actually out-performed Lillard not only in the post-season, but in the regular season as well. Thomas is a do-it-all PG at 30 years of age, with at least 2-3 more good years in him. His biggest height has always been what hurt him, but as long as he can get to the basket and shoot lights out, he'll continue to be a good option moving forward for whoever he signs with.
Quail's Crystal Ball Prediction: Xist commits to Thomas over Lillard, giving him a big money offer.

AD Space For Sale
Self-Explanatory

Anthony Davis: The big Kahuna. The one everyone has been waiting for. The one everyone (13 teams to be exact) have been clearing space for. Anthony Davis is about to hit the open market, and teams will be wining and dining him until he's fatter than Glen Davis after his poison pill contract years ago. Some teams are even approaching free agency offering only ONE offer to the Negotiator.. a single 4yr player option max deal for AD. It's no surprise that he is in high demand; he can literally turn any franchise around immediately. With the recent change in percentage increases, the difference between a super max and reg max isn't that much. We saw Kyrie turn down a super-max last year in favor of hitting UFA one more time before his prime is up. Could Davis be next?
Quail's Crystal Ball Prediction: AD signs with 1 of 4 teams: Suns, Sixers, Wizards, or Pistons.

[IamQuailman]

Updated with new section "Black Hawk Down". Will work on remaining 2 sections after lunch.

[false9]

I'll guarantee Lowry won't re-sign with the Rockets, considering he was a Pelican last year. Think you meant Lawson?

[IamQuailman]

I'll guarantee Lowry won't re-sign with the Rockets, considering he was a Pelican last year. Think you meant Lawson?

Yeah, I mixed those 2 shorties up. I blame them for both being midget PGs with L, W, and O in their names. Anyway, I adjusted the catgetories.

[IamQuailman]

Updated with the last 2 sections: Washington DLT Sandwich and AD Space for sale

[ballsohard]

AD Space For Sale
Self-Explanatory

Anthony Davis: The big Kahuna. The one everyone has been waiting for. The one everyone (13 teams to be exact) have been clearing space for. Anthony Davis is about to hit the open market, and teams will be wining and dining him until he's fatter than Glen Davis after his poison pill contract years ago. Some teams are even approaching free agency offering only ONE offer to the Negotiator.. a single 4yr player option max deal for AD. It's no surprise that he is in high demand; he can literally turn any franchise around immediately. With the recent change in percentage increases, the difference between a super max and reg max isn't that much. We saw Kyrie turn down a super-max last year in favor of hitting UFA one more time before his prime is up. Could Davis be next?
Quail's Crystal Ball Prediction: AD signs with 1 of 4 teams: Suns, Sixers, Wizards, or Pistons.

I know this is a reverse curse... but What am I going to do with this erection now ?

[MESSI_2.0]

AD Space For Sale
Self-Explanatory

Anthony Davis: The big Kahuna. The one everyone has been waiting for. The one everyone (13 teams to be exact) have been clearing space for. Anthony Davis is about to hit the open market, and teams will be wining and dining him until he's fatter than Glen Davis after his poison pill contract years ago. Some teams are even approaching free agency offering only ONE offer to the Negotiator.. a single 4yr player option max deal for AD. It's no surprise that he is in high demand; he can literally turn any franchise around immediately. With the recent change in percentage increases, the difference between a super max and reg max isn't that much. We saw Kyrie turn down a super-max last year in favor of hitting UFA one more time before his prime is up. Could Davis be next?
Quail's Crystal Ball Prediction: AD signs with 1 of 4 teams: Suns, Sixers, Wizards, or Pistons.

I know this is a reverse curse... but What am I going to do with this erection now ?

I think everyone is erect thinking of AD with Love.

[digiskunk]

This is a great article and all, but you missed the part where all of these players are going to sign with the Jazz for the vet minimum!

[ballsohard]

AD Space For Sale
Self-Explanatory

Anthony Davis: The big Kahuna. The one everyone has been waiting for. The one everyone (13 teams to be exact) have been clearing space for. Anthony Davis is about to hit the open market, and teams will be wining and dining him until he's fatter than Glen Davis after his poison pill contract years ago. Some teams are even approaching free agency offering only ONE offer to the Negotiator.. a single 4yr player option max deal for AD. It's no surprise that he is in high demand; he can literally turn any franchise around immediately. With the recent change in percentage increases, the difference between a super max and reg max isn't that much. We saw Kyrie turn down a super-max last year in favor of hitting UFA one more time before his prime is up. Could Davis be next?
Quail's Crystal Ball Prediction: AD signs with 1 of 4 teams: Suns, Sixers, Wizards, or Pistons.

I know this is a reverse curse... but What am I going to do with this erection now ?

I think everyone is erect thinking of AD with Love.

Bc one op isn’t enough


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[ballsohard]

Great in depth article - 5 points!