S29 Playoffs - First Round Preview

[TheSyndicate]

1. Orlando Magic (66-16) vs.
8. Washington Wizards (45-37)

How did they get here?: Thanks to a 110-108 win over the Pacers on 4/8, the Wizards won the tiebreaker for the privilege to be steam-rolled by the freight train that are the Orlando Magic. A 27-2 closing run leapfrogged the Magic over the Hawks for the best record in the league and also instills them as the hottest team going into the playoffs.

Analysis: The East is going to be an absolute gauntlet to get through, but this series will not be close. The Magic swept the season series including a 121-64 drubbing that was 72-19 at the half. That is not a typo. The Wizards team is built on defense, most specifically in the post, but the Magic's strength on offense is on the wing. This is just a tough match-up for the Wiz who would have much preferred to face a team like the Hawks - whom they would still lose to, but match up MUCH better against. For their part, the Magic are built for the playoffs with a short rotation of all-stars, and they should go far provided they don't catch the injury bug.

Prediction: The Wizards MIGHT win a game. Might. But I'm calling this a 4-0 sweep.

2. Brooklyn Nets (61-21) vs.
7. Charlotte Bobcats (51-31)

How did they get here?: After making a couple of splashes - namely acquiring Klay Thompson and jettisoning Joakim Noah in late January, the Bobcats became a team of perimeter gods which translated to the 4th highest scoring offsense in the league. Unfortunately, the team hasn't yet figured out how to gel and they scuffled to a 18-17 record post-trade. They are met by the 61-21 Brooklyn Nets who are one of the 3 teams outscoring Charlotte this year. Much like the Bobcats, the first half was much kinder to the Nets who started 41-11 before going 20-10 over their past 30 including 2 losses to the Bobcats themselves.

Analysis: Aw shit. This is getting tough already and we're only on the second series. Charlotte took the season series 3-1, but has scuttled down the stretch, but has also beat the Nets twice during the scuttle. So to figure this out we go to the matchups. Obviously, the Nets have the advantage in the front-court with Ibaka and Pedraza against whichever y/y du jour Darth feels like pitting them against. The Nets also have enough in the back-court to make this a pretty even matchup, so it depend on their front court. In the 3 games the Nets lost, Pedraza and Ibaka combined to shoot 27% of their team's shots. In the one win? 44%. If those two take the majority of shots, the Bobcats will be in trouble.

Prediction: I think Chad will get creative here and I never like to count him out in a 7 game series. I'm going Bobcats in 6. I am not confident.

3. Detroit Pistons (57-25) vs.
6. Philadelphia 76ers (52-30)

How did they get here?: Despite a road-heavy 2nd half schedule, 76ers finished out very strong - probably about 2 games stronger than they'd prefer as their reward for the 6th seed is a matchup with league MVP (probably for the next decade) Anthony Davis and the Pistons. The Pistons, for their part, turned it on down the stretch as well, winning 22 of their final 26 games to avoid the Cavs or Hawks in the first round.

Analysis: On the one hand, the 76ers won the season series 3-1, and Ballsohard is probably the most prolific playoffs gameplanner in SLOE. On the other hand, there's that Anthony Davis guy. On the other hand, the sixers are extremely deep and versatile with several size/speed combos to play around with. On the other hand, there's that Anthony Davis guy. I think this series hinges on how the shortened rotations common in the playoffs affect this deep 76ers team. As that somewhat negates one of their biggest strengths where their bench could roll against the Pistons awful bench.

Prediction: Once again, I'm going with the underdog here. I think the shorter rotations will hurt, but if Scott doesn't out-think himself, he has a team that can win this series. 76ers in 6.

4. Atlanta Hawks (65-17) vs.
5. Cleveland Cavs (56-26)

How did they get here?: Whelp. This was not what Cleveland had in mind for their first round matchup after a 56-win season. As an aside, doesn't it seem like these two teams meet in the first round EVERY year? The Cavs went all-in this year amassing a star-powered lineup led by Kemba Walker, Dirk Hardpeck, Iman Shumpert, and LeBron James. They had mirroring 28-13 halves, and (get your best Denny Green ready) THEY ARE WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE, a really good, deep team. The Hawks had their 12th season in a row with at least 53 wins. Ho-hum. They had a hot start and a hot finish (combined 27-0) to bookend a still very good 38-17 middle of the season.

Analysis: These two teams are actually built very similarly. They are deep and talented, play excellent defense, and don't bogart all their talent in their starting 5. The problem for the Cavs is the Hawks are just better and deeper. Whiteside may shut down Monroe, and Kemba may blow past Deron. And even if that happens, the Hawks still win the other 3 position battles on the floor at any given time. I think there will be a lot of close games, but the Hawks will win the most.

Prediction: The WigNosys in 5.

1. Minnesota Timberwolves (63-19) vs.
8. Denver Nuggets (42-40)

How did they get here?: That's right, the 42-40 Nuggets make the playoffs while the 45-37 Pacers stay home. Life's not fair, folks. At least it's not as bad as last year when the 41-41 Nuggets made it. I have to do a better job as a GM...

Anyway. The Nuggets made the playoffs by the skin of their teeth after finishing the season 8-1 to narrowly nudge out the RoboGMWarriors. They made a few moves essentially swapping Klay Thompson and 7 points for Chet Dooley, LaMarcus Aldridge and Tyson Chandler. After the flurry of moves, they finished 21-13 and are a SCARY playoff team against whoever they face (loljk). Speaking of who they're facing. The T-Wolves pounded their competition, and not just in the lowly Western Conference either, going 22-8 against the rivals in the East. They were the best team in the West by pretty much any metric, and it isn't difficult to see why.

Analysis: The T-Wolves' defense is the stingiest in the league, with plus-plus defenders at the 1-2-3 spots and above average defenders in the front court. On offense, they rely on a balanced attack led by athletic juggernaut shooting guard, Andrew Wiggins who finished 7th in the league in PPG. They don't get to the line a ton, and don't make a lot once they're there, but that's the biggest hole I can find, and it's...small. The Nuggets post-Klay have a two-headed back-court monster of dimes and dunks (minus the dunks for Dooley for now), and have a little muscle down low with the Titan. Even so, they're pretty much outclassed here with Wiggins negating Jrue, Ish negating Dooley, and no one else really all that impactful.

Prediction: As this will be a low-scoring series, and those tend to go back and forth, coupled with first-round jitters from the T-Wolves GM, I don't see this as a sweep. But I think the more talented team takes it in 6.

2. Dallas Mavericks (56-26) vs.
7. Houston Rockets (44-28)

How did they get here?: Wait, the Mavs are the 2 seed? With a record that would tie them for the 5th seed if they were out east, the Mavs are indeed the 2 seed. Much like the team they'd be tied with, they also built their team off of a couple of big offseason acquisitions: Josh Smith and Ricky Rubio. They narrowly edged the Pelicans and Grizzlies to take the Southwest Division thanks to a 30-11 second half. It seems once this team figured out how to put the pieces together, it was off to the races. Stop me if you've heard this before, but the Rockets limped into the playoffs, finishing the 2nd half with only a 20-21 record. They line up roughly the same as they have for the past couple of seasons with Lawson and Horford at the 1 and 5, Bosh and Thad up the middle, and for whatever reason that group cannot win in spring.

Analysis: The Mavs are led on offense by Beal and Josh Smith who are really nightmare covers for the Rockets with the aging Bosh and y/y wunderkind Corey Joseph at those two spots. The Rockets have the advantage down-low when they have the ball, but Withey can hold his own a bit on defense as well. The height difference in the PGs also concerns me between the 5'11" Lawson and the 6'4" Rubio. There aren't a whole lot of places the Rockets have an advantage on either side of the floor which was evidenced by their 4-0 season series record.

Prediction: This is the biggest mismatch on the West side of the first round. The Rockets may squeeze out a game or two if Beal goes cold, but I'll predict Mavs in 5.

3. Phoenix Suns (46-36) vs.
6. Portland Trailblazers (49-33)

How did they get here?: The Suns made the playoffs after winning what may very well be the worst division in SLOE history (calling all article writers). The division was really never in doubt, but they sealed the deal going 8-2 in their last 10 - mostly at home. The Trailblazers couldn't have asked for a better 3 seed to go against, getting a team with a worse record than them. They limped into the playoffs, but they opted to rest Rose, so their record is deceiving.

Analysis: When you look at a series involving Kevin Love, I think you're basically required to start your analysis with Kevin Love. In theory, the Blazers have the perfect defender for Love in Kenneth Faried. However in their 4 games, they went 2-2; 1-1 with Faried on Love (with the loss being by a whopping 40 points), and 1-1 with Ed Davis on him (with the loss being by 2 points in OT). So if you're KuCoach, what do you do? Not that this is the only matchup in the series, but certainly the key matchup. Outside of that, the outstanding question is whether the Suns can hang on with only 8 players, 3 of which lead the league in minutes. Will they wear down with the season on the line?

Prediction: The matchups will be interesting, and the 40 point loss definitely concerns me, but the Blazers are the better team. Blazers in 6.

4. New Orleans Pelicans (55-27) vs.
5. VanMemphis Grizzlies (54-28)

How did they get here?: Boy was this a close division race. Wow did the Grizz start hot, going 24-4 to open the season. Unfortunately they only went 30-24 after that as perhaps age caught up to them? Not really sure...but they sure didn't bargain for opening the playoffs on the road. The team hosting them, had almost the opposite story starting 31-21 and finishing up 24-6. They made their run after an under-the-radar move to acquire Luol Deng for points from YOURS TRULY. They couldn't get to the division lead, but they snake home-court for this series.

Analysis: The Pels are shallow, Grizz are deep. Grizz have a ton of front-court muscle to off-set Blake Griffin. But will he play from outside to negate that size? The one weapon that doesn't have some kind of counter balance? I don't see how the Grizz stop Lilliard. He could score 40 in this series in my opinion, yet that's not exactly how it played out during the 2-2 season series where he either didn't play or was in foul trouble. In fact, Blake at the 5 made the Grizz pay from outside in the 2 Pels wins, and Brandon Jennings - who might be the xfactor for the Pels - did his thing as well. Now on the Grizz side of things, they don't have any glaring weaknesses to exploit, they are just solid all around.

Prediction: This is a REALLY close series. But I think the Grizzlies are going to really miss home-court as the Pelicans take this team in 7.

[IamQuailman]

Great writeup. Hawks Cavs. EVERY YEAR. BOOK IT

[kucoach7]

I enjoyed this and it wasn't even about my conference. Sure sign of quality.

[TheSyndicate]

Updated with the Western Conference. Hope you all enjoyed!

[TheSyndicate]

I enjoyed this and it wasn't even about my conference. Sure sign of quality.

Thanks man, hopefully you enjoy the West as well.

[kucoach7]

I enjoyed this and it wasn't even about my conference. Sure sign of quality.

Thanks man, hopefully you enjoy the West as well.

Much better than the first half of the article.

[TheSyndicate]

I enjoyed this and it wasn't even about my conference. Sure sign of quality.

Thanks man, hopefully you enjoy the West as well.

Much better than the first half of the article.

Naturally.

[TheSyndicate]

Since not everyone can do a podcast, and there's no sim Vegas. I'd love to hear - who you got? Where do you agree/disagree?

[LoCo89]

Prediction: This is a REALLY close series. But I think the Grizzlies are going to really miss home-court as the Pelicans take this team in 7.

[TheSyndicate]

Prediction: This is a REALLY close series. But I think the Grizzlies are going to really miss home-court as the Pelicans take this team in 7.

If you thought my expectations were that I’d get even half of these right, you’re high.

[LoCo89]

Prediction: This is a REALLY close series. But I think the Grizzlies are going to really miss home-court as the Pelicans take this team in 7.

If you thought my expectations were that I’d get even half of these right, you’re high.

A) Everyone's always guessing so being right is relevant

B) what do you think I care more about you being wrong or me getting to use that gif?

[ballsohard]

5 Points!