We'll look at the guys we (and by "we" I mean "the pundits") expected to do well (and by "do well" I mean the top ten picks that in theory were the best talent available), as well as selected other players outside the top ten that caught my interest. Since these guys are sophomores, what better way to do this than grading the player on how well he's progressing along his expected arc?
TOP TEN PICKS
1. Gustave LeCroixGustave was given all the minutes he wanted last season and turned in a respectable rookie campaign, averaging 12.2 points, 3.8 boards, and 2.0 assists. His shooting touch has improved this season, as his field goal percentage is up a tick but - worryingly - his free throw shooting has fallen from 85% to 77% and his fouls per game have increased from 2.9 to 3.4 miscues. The Lakers will hope LeCroix makes a jump next season but can't afford to wait much longer. He needs to find his scoring touch which may be tough on a Laker squad full of ball-dominators. There's only one ball to go 'round. GRADE: C-
2. Jeffrey DurenHe's spending yet another year nailed to the Kings' bench. Not much to report here. GRADE: INCOMPLETE
3. Harland EllingerAfter spending about half the season as a starter last year, Ellinger has gotten a bigger role in terms of starts (if not minutes) this season. His scoring is up slightly over last year thanks to a substantial jump in shooting percentage, particularly from three. In addition, he's cut his turnovers down nicely. He needs to take another step forward in scoring volume next season as well as efficiency, but he's improved the biggest problem areas from last year. Is he a guaranteed star? No, but he's doing a lot of the "Right Things" (TM) so far in improving. GRADE: B+
4. Damion McNaryThe Bobcats' Ball/Wall approach means McNary hasn't been the focal point of the offense this season and his minutes are wwell down year over year. His efficiency metrics are up slightly but he's not made enough of an improvement for it to be clear it's not just statistical noise. The Bobcats need him to step up and give them an inside presence soon. GRADE: D
5. Van GrimaldiHe's gotten a lot of minutes the last couple of seasons in Philly and he's upped his scoring this year, which is good. The bad news is his shooting hasn't really improved and his decision-making is worse; he turns the ball over quite a bit more now. He hasn't really made any improvements in his other stats from last year, and while there is still room to grow, you wish you'd seen a little more than just marking time from The Reaper. GRADE: C-
6. Chet DooleyA change of scenery has let Chet boost the amount of minutes he's played, but while his total statistics are up from his time in New York, it's mostly due to the minutes increase. His efficiency is pretty flat. The biggest thing we expect from Chet is his ability to quarterback an offense and on that level, he did improve; his assist-to-turnover ratio went from a nice 2.21 last year to a healthy 2.51 this year. That's a good arc to be on; now the Sixers just have to hope he'll start bringing the rest of his game along, too. GRADE: B
7. Buddy PedrazaLast year, Buddy surprised a lot of people with his production. Now he's the centerpiece of the Nets' offensive attack and is flourishing. His points jumped from 19.2 ppg to 25.0 ppg and he's looking like a dominating offensive force. He's improved his assists (up to 3.5 from 3.0) and rebounding (6.4 to 7.5) and if the field goal percentage is slightly down, you'll still live with it at 48%. Buddy took a huge step this year and if he takes another step like this next season, he could become a perennial all-star. GRADE: A+
8. Brian StarkMost observers would tell you - and GM BowToTheBill straight up admitted - that Brian Stark's numbers last season were something of a mirage since he was the lone offensive option on the team. He's seen his minutes cut significantly, but not enough to explain the scoring plunge. His shooting is slightly improved over last year, but without the stat-stuffing, he just looks flat out worse. He's not a bad player, but neither is he anywhere close to what he was last season - grade solely on value would be higher but this is based on the arc the player is following so far and it isn't a good one. GRADE: C-
9. Odis JacksonOdis has been steady for the Pistons from his second season to his first - except defensively, where his numbers in rebounds and blocks have taken a slight dip. Odis is probably a below-average starting center at this point but the Pistons don't have anyone else so he's getting rolled out there anyway. He's okay, I guess, but is not in danger of scoring a big RFA deal unless he does something great in the next two seasons. GRADE: D+
10. Aubrey BroomfieldThe sample size is so limited from last season, it's tough to really tell if Aubrey is improved. And since the current stats are less than overwhelming, nobody is sure just what kucoach has here yet... including kucoach. GRADE: Incomplete
SELECT OTHER PLAYERS
11. Phil MilburnAfter playing significan minutes for the Warriors last season, Millburn has seen a reduced role in Toronto... and not only have his raw stats suffered, his efficiency seems to be hitting a sophomore slump as well. If he can't get playing time in a rebuilding Toronto lineup, you have to wonder where he could find it. GRADE: D
12. Phil HoggUnlike Broomfield, Hogg has gotten consistent minutes for the Blazers for a couple of seasons now and it looks like they may have something. His scoring has remained steady despite his minutes being slashed by 25% and his shooting has become remarkably efficient. He needs to cut down on the fouls (maybe some training to help this) but if he can stay on the floor, he looks like he has the potential to be a solid offensive-minded big. GRADE: B+
15. James PeacockThis guy averaged 13 ppg for the Spurs last year on 50% shooting... and was rewarded this year by getting his minutes sliced by more than half. It's justifiable since the Gerald Green acquisition allowed the Spurs to move Josh Smith up to PF and the Spurs are chasing a top playoff seed and are in win-now mode... but it just seems like Peacock's growth wasn't a priority this season... and didn't really happen if you look at his efficiency ratings. If there's more in the tank, he might be able to help the Spurs but we won't really have a good idea of what his arc looks like until next season. GRADE: D-
18. Gerard CarlsenCarlsen was fairly productive in spot minutes last season (16.0 PER in 13.6 mpg) and was rewarded by the Mavs with an increased role this season (24 mpg). His stats have increased but only thanks to the minutes increase - his productivity has remained pretty flat (and his shooting touch at the free throw line is a little out of sorts compared to last season). His proclivity to foul may keep him from being a full-time starter, and you'd like to see him rebound a little more, but for being an 18th pick, he has shown some potential. GRADE: C+
19. Daniel RandleMinutes are down for the reigning ROY thanks to the Hawks' logjam at the wing that wasn't cleared up until Afflalo was shipped out ahead of the trade deadline. But if his stats are down slightly, Randle shows encouraging signs by having increased his efficiency (he's posting a 20.2 PER now). His decision-making (assist-to-turnover ratio) looks better and he's blocking more shots in fewer minutes. At this point, I don't know that there's much potential left to grow into, but you could do worse than the "solid starter" his career arc is already at. GRADE: A-
27. Kevin WrightThe change of scenery from Milwaukee to Charlotte gave him opportunities and he's making the most of them. He was a decent end-of-bench backup for the Bucks last season but this year, spending a lot of time in the starting role, he's really shining. He's a somewhat limited PF who can score fairly well and block shots but is a little light on the boards, but for a 27th pick to be a niche role-player with a well-defined and useful niche is something unusual. He is posting a 17.0 PER and shooting 56% from the floor and doing it as a starter (albeit one that gets light minutes at just over 25 per game). He's a piece I expect the Bobcats to hold on to - he may be a spot starter once they get more talent, but at worst he'll be a productive backup big and given his draft position, that's a great thing. GRADE: A
35. Charles BlowA lot of Bobcats on this list - you're welcome, Chad - but Blow deserves a mention as a guy who looked like he would be out of the league after his first year in Chicago where he barely saw the floor and stank it up when he did to a guy that looks like a decent backup 4. He can score and rebound acceptably and is a surprisingly adept shot-blocker. Free throws still need some work and he can't shoot the ball a lick, but he's made a big jump year-over-year and will make the Bobcats' RFA season a lot more interesting this season.
