Do you have problems with stamina?

[kucoach7]

Since there is now competition for statistics-based articles, I am interrupting my futures forecast to talk about stamina. I know you guys are all waiting on the edge of your seat to see what I think about the futures of Western Conference teams but you'll just have to wait. I have already detailed to some extent how bad the stamina of these draft classes is here viewtopic.php?f=7&t=4901 but let's dig deeper into the issue.

Perspective
How bad are these guys? The recent proposal suggested a floor of 50 for stamina rating. Guys have ended a season on roster with a stamina lower than 50 72 times. 25 of those occurrences were in the last two years. So we went from averaging about two of these guys a year for the first 24 years of the league to averaging 12.5. Why? Guys with good skill rating also used to have good athleticism ratings. That isn't the case anymore. What that translates into is a thicker tail as shown below.

Stamina histogram.PNG (22.46 KiB) Viewed 1527 times

Obviously that is a significant change... but does it matter.

What does stamina affect?
The answer to this is pretty much everything. So much so that I'm not going to even provide results because there are too many. I find significant correlations between stamina and minutes when controlling for all other attributes. I also find significant correlations between stamina and essentially every meaningful statistics when controlling for minutes player and all other attributes. Notice I said "essentially" every meaningful statistic. The one exception? Rebounding.

Success stories
Of the 72 times guys have finished the season on roster with stamina under 50, 9 times have they averaged over 20 minutes per game. Let's look at some of their stories.

Walter Davis
1993 Timberwolves
27.7 MPG; 10.4 PPG; 35 starts
Walter is the only guy to ever average double digit scoring with sub 50 (40) stamina. This 39 year old shooting guard did so with a sweet (70) jump shot. He also average 1.1 steals per game.

Calvin Booth
2010 Jazz
27.3 MPG; 8.9 PPG; 6.9 RPG; 2.2 BPG
Booth had a quickness rating of 6, a jump rating of 7, and a strength rating of 38 and yet put together a decent season with a 14 PER, the highest of anyone on this list.

Elden Campbell
2002 Sixers
26.3 MPG; 6.3 RPG; 1.7 BPG; 0.5 +/-; 63 starts
Quite possibly the most complete season on the list, Campbell actually did this on a winning team!

Michael Jordan
2002 Wizards and 2001 Sonics
22.8/22.1 MPG; 9.4/7.3 PPG; -6.6/1.6 +/-; 0.357/0.37 FG%
Obviously the big number here is that positive 1.6 he posted for the 2001 Sonics, a team that won 52 games, while shooting terribly.

Phil Milburn
2015 Warriors
22.3 MPG; 7.9 PPG; 4.2 RPG
Phil put together a decent rookie season for the Dubs although it is worth noting he has the highest overall athleticism of the bunch despite the fact that he has the lowest stamina rating (25!) thanks to 82 strength and 52 jump.

Will Perdue
1998 Pistons
21.1 PPG; 5.1 RPG
Honestly nothing remarkable here.

Lloyd Hightower
2016 Wizards
20.8 PPG; 8.1 PPG; 0.586 TS%
Hightower shows that you can still be efficient, even if playing extended minutes on low stamina. This may be the most interesting case here.

Charles Barkley
1999 Knicks
20 MPG; 7.5 PPG 4.5 RPG; 0.374 FG%
Sir Charles is the opposite side of the Hightower coin. He was logging the minutes but was incredibly ineffective doing so.

Conclusion
So do we have a stamina epidemic that we should squash. The league will probably get to decide but what we see here is that low stamina guys can be effective in extended (though not truly starter-level) minutes. However, most examples prior to the new draft classes were of old guys, meaning that these new players will be limited during their primes and DED by the age of 32, which isn't fun

[kucoach7]

I wanted to add a quick note on how much stamina changes over the career of a player. The average player improves his stamina by about 8 points during his career. The 75th percentile changed by 14 and the largest 4 changes ever were 33, 35, 35, and 36. Also worth noting is that the average change for players that start their careers with low stamina (<60) is also about 8 with the same percentile marks. All this is to say that starting low doesn't doom a player but it doesn't mean they are more likely to experience greater increases in stamina.

[kucoach7]

And here is a picture in career change of stamina for high and low starting stamina players, excluding those in the 3 most recent draft classes so they have time to grow.

[garbageman]

Do we know if the new created players with low stamina are going to have careers that behave similarly to the old actual players? We don't have much of a sample size to see how much a Lloyd Hightower's stamina can increase over a career as opposed to a Will Perdue.

I know that there are admin-only sections that display maximum potentials, though I'm not sure if those apply to athleticism (if not, this point is moot), but if there is a narrower gap between an actual player's starting sta potential and max potential than a new created player's starting sta potential and their max potential, that would be interesting to note.

[IamQuailman]

Fantastic. But like you said, all these dudes you showed were old dudes sans Hightower. going forward it'll be interesting to see these skilled players and how having low stamina will impact them

As for the sliders for athleticism, they are what they are. What you see is what it is. There is no max potential (or potential for athleticism at all)

[ballsohard]

Fantastic. But like you said, all these dudes you showed were old dudes sans Hightower. going forward it'll be interesting to see these skilled players and how having low stamina will impact them

As for the sliders for athleticism, they are what they are. What you see is what it is. There is no max potential (or potential for athleticism at all)

yeah I think the better question is, is stamina more likely to increase than the other athletic ratings.

[IamQuailman]

Fantastic. But like you said, all these dudes you showed were old dudes sans Hightower. going forward it'll be interesting to see these skilled players and how having low stamina will impact them

As for the sliders for athleticism, they are what they are. What you see is what it is. There is no max potential (or potential for athleticism at all)

yeah I think the better question is, is stamina more likely to increase than the other athletic ratings.

When NOLa gets back from his honeymoon, we should check with him about past tc trackers to see what the max changes in STA we've seen over time.

[kucoach7]

Here are the changes from a player's first year to their year in which the attribute was the highest for each athleticism attribute.

jmp_change.PNG (10.82 KiB) Viewed 1464 times

qkn change.PNG (10.42 KiB) Viewed 1464 times

sta_change.PNG (14.37 KiB) Viewed 1464 times

[kucoach7]

str_change.PNG (13.34 KiB) Viewed 1464 times

[kucoach7]

Stamina does tend to grow more over a career than jmp or qkn, about on par with str.

[kucoach7]

Here are the histograms on a year change basis.

str_change year.PNG (13.28 KiB) Viewed 1464 times

qkn change year.PNG (12.82 KiB) Viewed 1464 times

jmp_change year.PNG (12.22 KiB) Viewed 1464 times

[kucoach7]

sta_change year.PNG (13.81 KiB) Viewed 1464 times

[kucoach7]

Accordingly we see more single year leaps in strength and stamina compared to jmp and qkn.

[Inner_GI]

you can claim 5 points.