Eastern Conference #2 Seed - Knicks vs. Bulls
There are technically a few other teams that could qualify for this debate, but the Knicks are in the driver seat, and unless John Guy is WAY more critical to the Bulls' success than I'm estimating (lazily and by colored boxes, I might add), this is a two-team race.
Breakdown: Taking a look, we don't see a lot of green for either team, but there a few differentiators, they play one more home game than the Bulls, and a slightly easier slate (53% vs. 56% opp win %). The Bulls do have a couple of schedule favors, though. One is that they play the Hawks and Bucks, but they play them at home, making victories SLIGHTLY more likely in both games.
X-Factor: The second Bulls schedule favor is that they play the Knicks twice in the final sim. They lead the season series 2-0 and a sweep of those games could be the difference here. Yeahyeahyeahbutguy says: Both those games are at MSG...
Prediction: The Knicks get at LEAST a split in the two Bulls games and win the 2 seed by 2 games.
Eastern Conference #8 Seed - Raptors vs. Cavaliers
Breakdown: Now we've got some green in there! Unfortunately for the Cavs, it's all on the Raptors' side. They've played roughly equal schedules to this point, but the Raptors have a much easier slate down the stretch - including 3 games against the Bobcats/Celtics. They also have an extra home game.
X-Factor: Steph Curry's injury definitely hurts the Raptors' chances. This will come down to how Soundwave is able to fair in his star PG's absence.
Prediction: I think this comes down to a tie - and I'm not sure what the tie-breakers are, so I'll just leave it at that. It is ONLY a race for the 8th seed and the privlige of getting crushed by the Hawks as well as a worse pick. So I'll hope the Cavs make it. They already have one lotto pick in the form of Al Jefferson's leg-cast.
Western Conference #2 Seed - T-Wolves vs. Spurs
Breakdown: These two teams are neck-and-neck and have been most of the year and both do it with offense. They're also both pretty hot with the Spurs winning 9 of their last 10 (all nine were at home, not coincidentally), and the T-Wolves winning 9 of 13 even without Brook Lopez. The Spurs have a tougher slate of opponents (Warriors, the red hot Grizzlies twice, and a home and home with Utah), but more of them at home. The Wolves have most of their home games in the first part of the sim, along with an easier slate.
X-Factor: The Spurs finish with home games against the Nets and T-Wolves. Can RPF's upstart Net's squad upset his buddy's hopes of the 2 seed? Will this come down to the last game of the season?
Prediction: I like the T-Wolves here. Despite missing Brook Lopez, I like their much easier schedule down the stretch. The Grizzlies can't lose right now, and that's bad news for San Antonio. If it does come down to the last game of the season, I hope it's on the national TV rankings...even if 78 stopped doing those...whatever they were.
Western Conference #8 Seed - Rockets vs. Nuggets vs. Jazz vs. Thunder
Breakdown: With between 9 and 12 games to play, the Rockets have leads of 2.5gms, 3.5gms, and 4.5gms over the Nuggets, Jazz, and Thunder respectively. Out of the four teams, though, Houston plays the most games on the road. The Thunder are the furthest from the playoffs, but they have a ridiculously easy home-heavy schedule down the stretch. Their last sim is: @LAL, vs. MIA, vs. DAL, vs. POR, vs. UTA, vs. PHI. That's 4-2 at a minimum, and potentially 6-0. So they aren't out of it by a long shot. The Nuggets haven't been the same since Al Jefferson hit the deck, losing 11 of 19 including 4 home games. While they finish home-heavy, 4 out of their last 5 games are against the: Hawks, Pistons, Bucks, and Grizzlies. The Jazz will finally get Ryan Anderson back for the final sim, but that should be a really difficult sim to get back in the mix where the Jazz will be underdogs in at least 5 if not all 6 of their final slate. As for the Rockets, they only have 9 games remaining and all 4 home games are winnable. If they take care of those 4, and pick up just 1 of their 5 tough road games, they finish 45-37, this is a record the Thunder can't beat, and the Nuggets and Jazz can only get by with uncharacteristically phenomenal finishes.
X-Factor: Health - If the Rockets can stay healthy, their most recent modest 3-game winning streak probably clinched this.
Prediction: Rockets pull away, and they make the playoffs by 4-5 games.
