TOP 5 PICKS - WHY NO STANDOUTS?
A lot of noise was made about how the first class from the PBCA had a lot of talent in the top 5 picks. Unfortunately, we didn't get to see #2 overall pick Jeffrey Duren of the Kings at all, as they've stashed him on IR all season - he will get a chance to take a crack at ROY some time down the road. However, I think going into the season, a lot of people felt #1 overall pick Gustave LeCroix, #3 overall pick Harland Ellinger, and #4 pick Damion McNary would get the chance to showcase their stuff - after all, they had great offensive potentials and were on awful teams, meaning you'd expect them to get all the shots they wanted.
Gustave LeCroix, LakersThe #1 overall pick has spent the majority of the season starting at SG for the Lakers but has only posted a dozen points and four boards in over 32 minutes per night. Nearly every other Laker has taken more shots this year than Gustave, which considering his .426 FG% might be a good thing except the guy leading the Lakers in shots, Brandon Jennings, is shooting even worse at .425 and has taken almost double the shots Gustave has. Guess it goes to show you even on a young team, you have to put in your dues to move up the pecking order. Lost as the last offensive option on the team most of the time and overshadowed by his more polished teammates, Gustave probably isn't on anyone's mind as a potential ROY candidate and while he has a ton of room to grow, he's not there yet.
Harland Ellinger, MagicIf LeCroix was on a team with a lot of other young studs and should have expected to share shots, the Magic looked like Ellinger would get as many shots as he wanted after Jordan Clarkson took his... until they made trades to put together the Andrew B frontcourt and tilted the team to more of an inside focus. Bogut and Bynum gave the Magic a nice, stable, offensive combination at C/PF, but unfortunately Clarkson and Ellinger have struggled mightily this year and their matching 0.392 field goal percentages undid the 52% shooting their big men were giving them. Ellinger is third on the team in shots but fourth in scoring (Bogut has more PPG on about 20% fewer shots thanks to a much better shot selection) and it looks like concerns about his shot in college (he shot .386 at Oklahoma State in his one-and-done year) may not have been unfounded. The good news is Ellinger has shown a willingness and ability to pass, but 3.7 assists per game needs to improve a lot or he's probably going to be moved to the two instead of the point guard spot. A 38-point effort against the Nets on St. Patrick's Day shows you flashes of greatness but he's been too inconsistent this year to merit serious ROY talk.
Damion McNary, BobcatsThe #4 overall pick went to a Bobcats team with only C.J. Miles and the husk of Danny Granger as players that remotely resembled offensive options, but everyone also noted at draft time how raw McNary was... and still is. Posting 8.2 ppg on 26 minutes per game off the bench is respectable, and the Bobcats must be very happy about his 5 boards per game as he's already showing a nose for the ball in limited minutes. His .467 shooting percentage isn't bad either, even if it is often coming against other teams' bench players. Damion is off to a nice start in Charlotte and has a ton of room to grow but the ROY material he isn't.
Van Grimaldi, 76ersTagged with the "Grimaldi Reaper" nickname right out of Miami, Grimaldi has done a nice job adjusting to the pro game, upping his scoring and field goal percentage from college in his first season playing against pro competition even as his 3-point shooting has fallen off with the more distant professional arc. Still, the guy has been durable, starting the whole season in Philly, and the jump in production from college to the pros bodes well for his continued improvement. He'll make a nice complement to Hayward and Harris but hasn't really shown the ability to take over games even for stretches yet. If only the top 5 picks were being considered for ROY, he'd have a case. But unfortunately some of the later picks have been really productive this year.
LATE-LOTTO PICKS WHO BURST ON THE SCENE
Buddy Pedraza, NetsThe buzz prior to the draft was that Buddy had an NBA ready offensive game but the defense might take a little while to come around, if it ever came around at all. Well, Buddy has lived up to the hype. A minor injury cost him a few games earlier this season, but Buddy has been tearing it up offensively, averaging 19 ppg, 6.2 rpg, and 3.0 apg all on over 50% shooting - scoring numbers all the more impressive when you consider he's playing next to a pair of 20-ppg scorers in Afflalo and Carmelo Anthony. Coupled with defensive-minded Tristan Thompson, the Nets' frontcourt will have a nice one-two punch for quite a while to come; the Nets just need to find some more young backcourt pieces to slide in around Jeremy Lamb and they're looking very good. Pedraza was a popular "dark horse" pick for ROY in the preseason and I'd say he's got a strong case for ROY - he's one of the top 3 contenders for sure.
Brian Stark, WarriorsRaise your hand if you saw this guy coming. The Timberwolves drafted Brian and then shipped him off to Golden State along with Rudy Gobert in a draft day trade for Steph Curry. Don't get me wrong - Curry has been great for the Wolves this season, helping them to the playoffs and scoring 22 ppg on .482 shooting (including .461 from three)... but I have to wonder if the Wolves would do the trade again with the benefit of hindsight... because Stark has been averaging 24 ppg (more than Curry)! Yes, he's not as efficient as Steph (.409 fgp) but boy has he made his mark in a hurry. It probably helps that he's the lone offensive weapon the Warriors have as they retool around the twin towers of Deandre Jordan and Rudy Gobert but those are eye-popping numbers. Definitely enough to put him in the ROY top-3 contenders list.
NON-LOTTO SURPRISES
James Peacock, SpursThe first player picked outside the lottery, Peacock has plugged in very nicely into the Spurs' lineup and flip-flops with Jordan Hill for the starting C/PF role. He's averaging a solid 12.6 ppg and 5.3 rpg in less than 30 minutes and shoots over 50%. Seems like every season the Spurs are plugging in someone new and he's producing. With a little more time under his belt at San Jose State (three years) than some of the lotto picks, he came ready to produce and the Spurs have to be happy he's on board. His stats aren't gaudy enough for ROY consideration, but he's one of just a handful of rookies putting in solid minutes for a playoff team, so there's that.
Daniel Randle, HawksDefinitely the beneficiary of the touch of TC-blessedness but even in the draft file pre-TC he showed signs of an all-around stat-stuffer who wasn't a great individual defender. A four-year senior out of Providence, he's probably already close to his ceiling, but if his rookie season is his ceiling, you have to think the Hawks will take it and run like bandits. On a team that's been noted this season for spreading the ball around, he's second on the Hawks with 18+ ppg on a relatively average 45% shooting but also posts 4 boards, 3 assists, almost 2 steals and a block, stuffing all five major stat categories. He can't dribble the ball to save his life, but does everything else you want a 2-guard to do. He's the third serious candidate for ROY.
AND THE (PROJECTED) WINNER IS...
First off, any one of our top 3 players would make a worthy ROY. But there can be only one, so...
Buddy Pedraza is likely to come in third place. The fact that he's putting up nice scoring numbers on a team with other offensive-minded teammates is nice, but there are very few big guys who can score in the league any more. But he's only edging Randle by .2 ppg and Randle puts up stats on the defensive end in steals and blocks, which Buddy has not. In addition, Buddy's missed a little time with injuries, something that Stark and Randle have not, and it's little quibbles like this that we need to find edges these players might have over each other. I think Buddy is a strong 3rd place finish.
Daniel Randle has been helped immensely by being on a team with a lot of good teammates where his individual defensive liabilities and ability to dribble the ball consistently off his foot are rather covered up. I would anticipate being so close in scoring to Pedraza and putting up all around stats, he'll come in second place as it's hard to say how much of his success is based on his teammates.
So your projected ROY winner is Brian Stark. He's been supernova-explosive on offense and his PPG have been trending up - I think finishing the season averaging 25 ppg is not out of the question. I think with that kind of scoring edge on the other candidates voters will have to look past his field goal percentage and hand him the ROY award. And the scary thing is as he tightens up his shot selection and improves himself from the line, he could get even better in years to come!
