S89 Town Hall 5

[Mike Lowry]

Hasn't been too much trade action since the 60 day mark, do you expect teams to stand pat, get active?
What are the pros and cons of playing it out?
Who do you think needs a move?
What kind of move should they aim for?
How will this move impact their contention?

Rules: 1 point if you give thoughtful answers, which I will award after the timer ends for responses. The timer ends for responses at the moment the corresponding week's Sim is run.

Note: Use approximately 5 sentences as your bare minimum for 1 point. If you write 3 long, complex sentences, you'll still get a point. If you write 5, 3 word sentences, you will not get a point. Don't @ me.

Due: Deadline for Sim 5

[WigNosy]

Hasn't been too much trade action since the 60 day mark, do you expect teams to stand pat, get active?
What are the pros and cons of playing it out?
Who do you think needs a move?
What kind of move should they aim for?
How will this move impact their contention?

I expect teams will get active. Generally, I think there are three things that spark trade activity: (1) injuries, (2) a draft class people are interested in getting a piece of, and (3) the realization that "this is not our year." We haven't had a lot of injuries yet, though the law of averages suggests that is likely to change soon. The draft class doesn't seem to be exciting people, so that's not going to lead to trades. But I do think there will be a growing realization over the next couple of sims that "this is not our year" - early record-clumping has meant a lot of teams think, "I may have a shot this year" but at some point people are going to remember last post-season... when round 1 was amazing and round 2 was... what's the wrestling term? A "squash"? Division winners went 16-1 last season in Round 2. Barring injury, the Spurs are going to squash the West. The Celtics, Nets, and Bucks are the only real threats in the East. So everyone else has to ask themselves, "do I really want to compete this year or do I need to start building for the future?" Eventually several teams will make the calculation "build."

The team that needs a move is the Rockets. Last season, we saw them push the Spurs nearly to the end of the season. They didn't lose THAT much (Frank Johnson doesn't count) in the off-season. For some inexplicable reason they decided to go small this year. They need to revert to last year's starting lineup (Bird at PF, Higgins at SF, Blackmon at SG) and find a team that's willing to take a couple of their draft picks packaged with Hank McDowell's contract to give them a difference-maker... probably a scorer at the 2 - 9.9 ppg from Kevin Edwards isn't doing it for me. Maybe the Mavs would part with Byron Scott? It might not get them a championship, but it could give them a puncher's chance to hang with the Spurs.

[NickMalone77]

It would appear that the lack of sellers is probably hurting the trade market at this time. Really, there’s only one seller and that’s the Bullets, who’ve done a remarkable job at getting their tax bill down or completely eliminated. The rest? The Warriors and they aren’t trading Kemp so… Slim pickings.

If I were a team on the bubble, I’d look at really hard at the field, the cap situation, and whether it’s enough, in a weak draft, to be aggressive one way or the other. The Spurs have the West, and while the Bucks may seem weaker, they’re still the favorite in the East in my opinion. It doesn’t hurt to raise the profile from a losing team to a team that can make the playoffs and win a series if you haven’t been there in a while. I look at the middle of the West and think a team like the Nuggets could cash in some of their young talent and make a move if they really wanted to. The Timberwolves feel like a year away given their young talent. Th me Suns could look to improve at the 5 and go after a real 5 to replace Daugherty, even for depth purposes . A lot of cards to be played still. Just got to see who cashes in first.

[K-100]

Hasn't been too much trade action since the 60 day mark, do you expect teams to stand pat, get active?
Get active - folks like to trade and while draft picks are not a premium asset this season there are plenty of teams looking to dump salary as we get closer to the deadline. They will find a way to reduce their tax burden.

What are the pros and cons of playing it out?
The pro is you make the playoffs but the con is you risk maximizing your asset collection. It is fun to try but sometimes you just need to be realistic and call it quits.

Who do you think needs a move?
The Rockets and the Suns

What kind of move should they aim for?
The Rockets need to shed salary to reduce their tax bill and the Suns should use their cap space to acquire some talent.

How will this move impact their contention?
Neither is a legit contender but the Suns are playing with house money so standing pat would be a waste of a season.

[BigDaddyd8720]

Hasn't been too much trade action since the 60 day mark, do you expect teams to stand pat, get active?
What are the pros and cons of playing it out?
Who do you think needs a move?
What kind of move should they aim for?
How will this move impact their contention?

Rules: 1 point if you give thoughtful answers, which I will award after the timer ends for responses. The timer ends for responses at the moment the corresponding week's Sim is run.

Note: Use approximately 5 sentences as your bare minimum for 1 point. If you write 3 long, complex sentences, you'll still get a point. If you write 5, 3 word sentences, you will not get a point. Don't @ me.

Due: Deadline for Sim 5

I think we’ll see more movement closer to the deadline. Some teams might be feeling good about themselves right now and may not be looking to make a big splash trade just yet. May not want to change too much just yet. We could also be seeing a few teams overperforming too.

I think the bulls and nuggets need to make a move in order to really feel like a contender. Both teams are on the cusp of the playoffs but need to find a player or two to really solidify themselves in the playoffs. Nuggets need to find a truly elite scorer and the bulls need to find some added depth, they only have 4 players scoring 10+ points per game.


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[greepleairport]

Hasn't been too much trade action since the 60 day mark, do you expect teams to stand pat, get active?
What are the pros and cons of playing it out?
Who do you think needs a move?
What kind of move should they aim for?
How will this move impact their contention?

Rules: 1 point if you give thoughtful answers, which I will award after the timer ends for responses. The timer ends for responses at the moment the corresponding week's Sim is run.

It seems like the final four is already set (fourth is Celtics or nets, the only variable imo). The Celtics or nets could possibly make moves to improve their chances. The Bucks aren’t AS dominant this season, but they could also make a move to be more dominant.

The Sonics or Suns could possibly make a move to contend with the Blazers, but Wig has all the momentum here to knock them both off. I think the Suns have had a solid start that is fizzling, and I don’t think they’ll get a deal done to change it. I have more faith in the Sonics doing something to change their fate, but if they do I expect wig to counter their move and reassert dominance.

The rest of the pack is playing for 1st or possibly 2nd round playoff exits at best, so choose your poison to go for it or tank for 7th or 8th in the lottery.


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[logpmess]

Hasn't been too much trade action since the 60 day mark, do you expect teams to stand pat, get active?
What are the pros and cons of playing it out?
Who do you think needs a move?
What kind of move should they aim for?
How will this move impact their contention?

Rules: 1 point if you give thoughtful answers, which I will award after the timer ends for responses. The timer ends for responses at the moment the corresponding week's Sim is run.

Note: Use approximately 5 sentences as your bare minimum for 1 point. If you write 3 long, complex sentences, you'll still get a point. If you write 5, 3 word sentences, you will not get a point. Don't @ me.

Due: Deadline for Sim 5

The lack of movement has to do with Nick's dejection following Training Camp. Joking. I think a lot of it has to do with this draft class. With not a lot to really move people in this draft, people aren't clamoring for picks in the early teens. That makes what is usually a very nice asset way less desirable. Also, with the Spurs getting traded such a monster player, it feels like the season is already decided except for a few teams, so people aren't as willing to give up assets.

Nobody really needs to make a move in my opinion. There is no inherent advantage to be had this season for 90% of the teams. I think this will be an extraordinarily slow trade deadline. With such a league altering trade happening, I don't expect anywhere near the amount of trades over the next few years as we have had for the first 9 years.

[Mike Lowry]

I don't really get the inaction.
The fact is that you can't half tank effectively, and this is an extremely poor time to try.
The comments about early and mid teen picks in the 90 draft having no value is spot on.
So if I was any one of those teams sitting above 12 wins I would be very active.
I mean, who am I kidding, I'm always active, but I would be trying to capitalize a buyer's market and make investments for the 90 season.
As much as people want to say that this race was over before it began, I'll guarantee the Spurs won't repeat in 90.
So if I'm a team like the Sonics, Bulls, Pacers, Blazers, Suns, Rockets, Lakers, Kings, Nuggets, or Mavs, I would be trying to set my table to make the 90 run now.
Because none of those teams will find help in the draft, and they're too far into their builds to turn back now.
By standing pat they all burn 2 years idling the same roster and mostly all inching towards the tax.
I do think the tax will be the focus rather than what should be the priority which is loading on talent on the cusp, that will take big steps forward in 90.
This kind of move will help these teams build cohesion in their build.
I imagine a few teams will get it right.

[Eazy P]

Hasn't been too much trade action since the 60 day mark, do you expect teams to stand pat, get active?

There hasn't been action because some think it is a foregone conclusion that the Spurs are going to win it all because of the Magic trade. On paper odds or in their favor but it still comes down to game planning and matchups. I do think there will be some movement soon.


What are the pros and cons of playing it out?

The pros of letting it play out is seeing what you have in certain players. Some give up on guys because they are not patient.

Who do you think needs a move?

I think the rockets need to make a move but will they, probably not.

What kind of move should they aim for?

They need a shooting guard and Small forward. If they can at least fill one of those positions they will start to pile on wins.

How will this move impact their contention?

They will become another legit threat in the conference but they would also have to game plan properly.