S89 Town Hall 2

[Mike Lowry]

What are some things that surprised you about the first sim?
Do you see any anomalies that won't stick?
Is there anybody facing tough circumstances that you didn't foresee?

Rules: 1 point if you give thoughtful answers, which I will award after the timer ends for responses. The timer ends for responses at the moment the corresponding week's Sim is run.

Note: Use approximately 5 sentences as your bare minimum for 1 point. If you write 3 long, complex sentences, you'll still get a point. If you write 5, 3 word sentences, you will not get a point. Don't @ me.

Due: Deadline for Sim 2

[BigDaddyd8720]

I think the two big surprises are the trailblazers and pistons both being under .500. I’m not sure what happened with the trailblazers but if I know Wig, he won’t stay down for long. But maybe trading McHale may not have been the best move at this time for this team. Or maybe they just need a bit more time before they really start to click. The pistons are an easy candidate to see turn their season around as they had 3 injuries all to key players/starters. They won’t be out too long so once they get back, look for the pistons to bounce back and compete with the bucks for the division. Plus they’re only 3 games out so not a whole lot of ground to make up


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[tbone963]

The biggest surprise was 3 of my starters getting injured. All by the Nets. And they being the only injuries in the league. Threw the hype train off the rails for a little bit. Apart from myself, the blazers are the other easy answer. They'll adjust and fight for a playoff spot after their slow start. Not many other surprises I can see right now.

The anomalies are the ones I mentioned: freak injuries to 3 of the Pistons' best players, blazers' slow start. I think everyone else is around where I think they'll be at the end of the season.

I thought the mavericks would be more competitive out the gate. Bowie is in his prime and their starters' average age is about 29. If things don't turn around, they may have to consider selling off pieces and start over. The good news for them is they're under the tax and have their own draft pick this year so they can afford a down year.

[greepleairport]

Ya know, when we started this league and Wig was pod'ing like crazy, I recall him talking about competitive disparity. In the first season, we had teams with point diffs predominantly in the single digits. Now, we have the Spurs at the top with over 19+ point diff (we've seen higher after 1 sim before, no?), and the lowest at -23.9 (pretty sure we've seen lower here, too).

I sat down to write about the powers shifting to the East, possibly, which was a surprise to me. But really, it's the same teams at the top, with a new entrant here and there (Nets this year- nice to see Ed back at the top since winning the first season of NPBSL). And then the rest. So, there may be more stronger teams at the top in the East, but the Spurs still seem to be playing the most dominant ball, which actually isn't very surprising.

The big surprise is the paltry start from the aforementioned Wig, who never is bad. 2-5, though, is bad. I've never seen Wig tear it all down, but is he inching closer to doing so? Doubt it lol, he'll be a force before the season is over. Somehow. Honorable mention for the Wolves opening under .500, too. Their offseason/draft was a big story, and it sucks to see the excitement lead to a 3-4 start. I think they'll turn it around though, too. If not this season, the next.

[Mike Lowry]

I'm looking squarely at the Boston Celtics on this one.
With a 5-3 start I don't think they need to panic, but losses at the Pacers and to the Bullets at home were not expected, at least by me.
They stood on a high horse in their presser and I drank the Kool Aid when they said they weren't scared of the Spurs.
They have a great core, and the numbers look pretty good as far as balance and chemistry.
They just have to close better, and I fully expect them to.

In the West there's all sorts of stuff going on.
I guess I can understand slow starts from young teams in Denver and Minnesota, less so Denver, but what's going on in Houston, and how did they find themselves looking up at the catastrophe in LA?

Who surprised me being in the trouble they're in is the Mavs.
I knew the Warriors, Knicks, and to a degree Hornets would be bad, but the Mavs have some solid veteran players who are off to a rough start. They might have to blow it up even further if they don't gain traction soon.

[WigNosy]

What are some things that surprised you about the first sim?
Do you see any anomalies that won't stick?
Is there anybody facing tough circumstances that you didn't foresee?

Well, my record, obviously. Everyone's so busy staring at my record, but how many of you have asked, "WHY did this happen?" And more importantly, "what are the structural reasons for it?"

Let me help you out here. Last year, McHale took 20 shots per game for us. This year, Thompson is taking 10 shots per game, so that's an extra 10 shots per game going to other players. Lester Conner is shooting at a rate 0.395 on two more shots per game - a lot of that can be attributed to him taking a lot more jumpers this year ... and that probably IS due to his athletic decline as his athletic ratings got blasted in TC. So, yes, that is absolutely something I am concerned about and which may stick and cause us to struggle some this season. On the other hand, James Worthy has started the season shooting 0.417 - yet he is playing the exact same position as before, he actually IMPROVED skills in training camp (going from blue to purple, with no significant athletic losses)... for his career he is shooting 0.517. That tells me James' rough shooting start is an anomaly that is not going to stick. Johnny Newman is getting 5 extra shots per game and his shooting has declined a bit from last year, but 0.480 isn't intolerable (though I would like the 0.541 from last year)... and McHale is shooting 0.496 so it's not like giving those shots to Kevin would have made a ton of difference. Finally, consider my opponents' aggregate win percentage is 0.630 - we had a tough schedule to kick off the season. That's why I'm not panicking. Yet.

As for tough circumstances, I did not foresee, I'm going to nominate Larry Bird. Dude went from starting last year and averaging 34 mpg to signing a massive contract extension... to riding the pine behind Rod Higgins. It makes you wonder if we've seen the end of the Larry Bird era in Houston.

[K-100]

What are some things that surprised you about the first sim?
The East is worse than ever. It is littered with some teams actively tanking and some of these double digit point differentials are going to be ugly at season's end. Much like the real NBA, the winner of the Western Conference finals will be the champ this season.

Do you see any anomalies that won't stick?
The Mavericks wont lead the league in rebounding. They play a fast pace so there will be lots of possessions but their defense is suspect so I expect teams to improve their shooting stats as the season progresses.

Is there anybody facing tough circumstances that you didn't foresee?
The Pistons caught the injury bug this season and their record suffered as a result. This will be an interesting team to track as they get healthy again because their overall record will be deceiving given their actual talent.

[logpmess]

What are some things that surprised you about the first sim?
Do you see any anomalies that won't stick?
Is there anybody facing tough circumstances that you didn't foresee?

Rules: 1 point if you give thoughtful answers, which I will award after the timer ends for responses. The timer ends for responses at the moment the corresponding week's Sim is run.

Note: Use approximately 5 sentences as your bare minimum for 1 point. If you write 3 long, complex sentences, you'll still get a point. If you write 5, 3 word sentences, you will not get a point. Don't @ me.

Due: Deadline for Sim 2

I think the Celtics will take a step forward from where they are. In the preseason, they were undefeated, and they had a tough sim 1, but I expect them to take control of the Atlantic and actually win the East as whole. The Pistons were hit with injuries so they will make a surge going forward past this first sim.

I am a little surprised with the Rockets. They have a geniune superstar in Ewing and they have a ton of talent otherwise. I would hope they could make a push and challenge in the west, but they currently have a losing record and are already 5 games back. With so much talent, they should be second in the division and challenging for best record in the league.

[Eazy P]

What are some things that surprised you about the first sim?

The Nets but not their record but the blunt force trauma to start the season. Eliminating the Pistons in the 1st round last season wasn't enough for the Nets. They started the season out vs the Pistons and in each of the 3 games they play in the 1st sim took a Pistons player out. This has to be a sign of a new rivalry brewing. I am also shocked at the slow start of the Trailblazers and AC Green leading the league in rebounds after 1 sim.


Do you see any anomalies that won't stick?

I do not see the Blazers having any more bad sims. They usually figure out a way to win.

Is there anybody facing tough circumstances that you didn't foresee?

Early on is the pistons with the injuries and the same team targeting their players.