S88 Town Hall 3

[Mike Lowry]

Small sample size, but we have 14 teams winning between 33 and 67 percent their games.
Who will rise?
Who will dive?
When the decisions are made, will there be more contention or more tanking?

Rules: 1 point if you give thoughtful answers, which I will award after the timer ends for responses. The timer ends for responses at the moment the corresponding week's Sim is run.

Note: Use approximately 5 sentences as your bare minimum for 1 point. If you write 3 long, complex sentences, you'll still get a point. If you write 5, 3 word sentences, you will not get a point. Don't @ me.

Due: Deadline for Sim 3.

[NickMalone77]

Small sample size, but we have 14 teams winning between 33 and 67 percent their games.
Who will rise?
Who will dive?
When the decisions are made, will there be more contention or more tanking?

We’re already doing pretender and contender even before Sim 3? I guess… A lot can still change between now and the end of the season, clearly but I think a better approach to this is to look at the teams on the bubble that are hovering around .500 after the first month of the season. Teams that should be better than they are but record is slightly disappointing due to injuries game planning, sleep schedule, etc. I would say are probably the Rockets, Lakers. & Celtics. Given the amount of talent on these squads, they’re all registering point differential of over 4 and given the talent, that number should continue to rise as they face likely easier opponents down the road.

Who’s likely to fall down into the Pitt of obscurity? Most likely the Jazz, Hawks, & I’ll say the SuperSonics. Yes, they just acquired Clyde Drexler but I really wonder if he’s going to truly boost the profile of Seattle while they ponder who will be able to play defense and or grab rebounds while playing in the paint. For the Jazz, they feel like a team that is built on Ainge & Spudd doing everything for them on offense while the rest of the pieces feel like a year or two away like Rodman & Thorpe from just grabbing every rebound possible. It’s a lot of mouths to feed and not their time, just yet. The Hawks? They’re a good team that should be Great. It’s probably early but given the pieces they have and how much they value them, they should have a much better record than 7-8 at least in the early going.

I think the allure of David Robinson, Shawn Kemp, & or Glen Rice will turn a high amount of teams to try and tank and rebuild for the future likely making it easier to make the playoffs this year ahead. Teams should want to compete and win but maybe they see winning as putting their fortunes into a lotto system that doesn’t always reward the worst teams. I’m never going to intentionally tank. It’s just not in my DNA and that’s when I pull the trigger to acquire a double yellow player that does more winning than the intended losing.

[WigNosy]

Small sample size, but we have 14 teams winning between 33 and 67 percent their games.
Who will rise?
Who will dive?
When the decisions are made, will there be more contention or more tanking?

I think Nick's final point - that the allure of Kemp and Robinson will convince a lot of teams to go into the tank - is a good one. My sense is that everyone's waiting until 12/15 when all the off-season acquisitions can move and then we'll see a flurry of activity.

I see teams as falling into several tiers: truly bad (including tanking), outside the playoffs, on the bubble, in the playoffs but not contenders, and contenders. And with maybe one exception (Magic Johnson), there isn't a trade that moves you "up" more than one tier at a time, though you can move down easily. What that means is - provided you have your own pick - the choice to "tank" is always easier than the choice to "contend." So let's look at those teams:

Hornets: "on the bubble" - could be "in the playoffs" but I need a bigger sample size - normally I'd look at the team's performance last season but Nick doesn't have that - that said, all of Nick's moves so far have been to "move up" and I don't think he changes course now.
Celtics: "in the playoffs" - we know from last year, this is a playoff squad. They're going to try to content.
Hawks: "on the bubble" - They were strong last year, but putting your stars on the trade block is indicative of tanking.
Nets: "outside the playoffs" - I don't think the Nets make big moves, but they won't tank either.
76ers: "outside the playoffs" - Don't have their own first. They're not going to tank.
Trailblazers: "in the playoffs" - Don't have their own first. They're not going to tank.
Mavericks: "in the playoffs" - They've been rumbling about being disappointed with their record and the luxury tax. I don't think they tank, but I also don't see how they try to move up to contend.
Rockets: "in the playoffs" - I think they want to contend, but 78 may have to be active enough to get a trade done.
Jazz: "bubble" - They look like they're considering blowing it up. They could tank.
Lakers: "bubble" - If they find a trade partner, they will try to contend. Look at the failed Clyde attempt. Also, they don't have their own first. They won't tank.
Sonics: "bubble" - Just traded for Clyde. They're trying to move up and contend.
Warriors: "bubble" - Don't have their own first, but also shopping Chambers. Might get started on next year's tank.
Kings: "outside" - Don't have their own first, and Chad is allergic to tanking when he doesn't have his own first.

So I think, surprisingly, from these teams... little tanking.

[K-100]

Who will rise?
Expect the Rockets to make a run at the Spurs for the division title. Their team is well-balanced and Ewing is continuing his ascent to be in the MVP conversation.

Who will dive?
The Mavericks will find a way to shed some salary and drop out of playoff contention.

When the decisions are made, will there be more contention or more tanking?
More tanking. The draft is a great class with something for everyone. There will be a fun race to the bottom that will benefit the few teams left standing in contention.

[BigDaddyd8720]

Small sample size, but we have 14 teams winning between 33 and 67 percent their games.
Who will rise?
I hope to all things holy that my team is on the rise after acquiring Clyde. We still have to figure out our gameplan but as long as we can stay within a game or 2 of the playoffs, I think we can find ourselves putting it together to make the leap into the playoffs. I also feel like the Hawks will rise, unless of course they decide to trade away their players. But they have way too much talent to be below .500. Their team is underperforming but I expect them to correct that quickly.

Who will dive?
The Lakers have been active in trade talks so I wonder if they look to offload some of their contracts to get in a better position for younger players in the draft. Warriors are also a team that will probably fall as well. Very slow start and they are not afraid to talk about moving players even without their own draft pick

When the decisions are made, will there be more contention or more tanking?
I think it will be more tanking when it's all said and done. The top tier teams seem to be set so I'm not sure if their are too many moves to go around to make more teams a contender, but any moves made likely have a team going into tank mode.

[Darth Vegito]

Who will rise?
I will rise. Everyone is counting the Kings out. I hear the rumblings. "The Blazers are going to have two top lotto picks". Nope. Not gonna happen. The Kings will be in the playoffs and watch out if you're the team we face in Round 1.

Who will dive?
I think the Lakers will fall. We'll see which direction they decide to go. Their record could swing in any direction.

Contend or Tank?
The choice for these baby back b*tches in this league is always to tank. I knew how good the players were in this class and I still traded the picks away. Because it's time to compete. Not stay stuck on the tit from now on. Time to put on the big boy pants and win some games.

[Mike Lowry]

We’re already doing pretender and contender even before Sim 3?

I think this is more of who hasn't embraced tanking yet, that will, than it is pretender v. contender.
And that question becomes less interesting after Day 60 when we're bound to see a lot of motion that will make this more evident than speculative.

I see teams as falling into several tiers: truly bad (including tanking), outside the playoffs, on the bubble, in the playoffs but not contenders, and contenders.

I agree that all of this is there, and I'm trying to get to a better idea of who is going where.

I think teams that got off to a shaky start, but will remain committed to winning are the Celtics, Rockets, Lakers, Sonics, and Kings.
Mostly because they have real stars, or depth that won't benefit them to lose on purpose.

Then there is a large group of Purgatory teams who are not good enough to really compete, but have messy contracts that don't allow for them to make the moves they need to get better.
The leaders in this area are the Hawks, Suns, and 6ers, with the Jazz and Nets close behind.
They have more depth and more talent, but not winning as they could expect from their talent.

I don't imagine the Mavericks or the Pistons are interested in paying those kind of tax bills, so I expect them to be sellers this weekend and to subsequently drop in the standings, but not far enough to reach the tank.
Interestingly, I see the Warriors selling off the most pieces because they have contract flexibility and star power to offer, but they don't have their own pick, so it'll be interesting to see if they actually dive.

And the Hornets are the one true outlier for me. They seem to have a few assets to offload to improve, and it seems to be a buyers market.
I just don't know what deal takes them up a level.
I expect them to stay around the 4 or 5 seed for the Eastern Conference.

[logpmess]

Small sample size, but we have 14 teams winning between 33 and 67 percent their games.
Who will rise?
Who will dive?
When the decisions are made, will there be more contention or more tanking?

Rules: 1 point if you give thoughtful answers, which I will award after the timer ends for responses. The timer ends for responses at the moment the corresponding week's Sim is run.

Note: Use approximately 5 sentences as your bare minimum for 1 point. If you write 3 long, complex sentences, you'll still get a point. If you write 5, 3 word sentences, you will not get a point. Don't @ me.

Due: Deadline for Sim 3.

I think the Nets will rise. They have a lot of talent on that team, and they just need to get their team together.

Hawks will fall. If their trade block stays true. They have deals in place for a few of their players with only a few left.

Ultimately, the teams are either going to sell off an tank or gain players and try to push to a playoff. Something else to consider is injuries. There is usually at least one team that gets injury after injury that prevents them from rising no matter the talent. Hopefully injuries remain small and teams can play their best games.

[Mike Lowry]

@NickMalone77
@WigNosy
@K-100
@BigDaddyd8720
@Darth Vegito
@Mike Lowry
@logpmess
+1 point