Re: S87 Town Hall 5

[Mike Lowry]

The recent draft classes have been light on dominant big men, but the standings reflect that you can't win without a strong front-court.
Is it still the best strategy to build around dominant bigs?
If not, when will all these highly drafted guards begin to impact winning differently?
Who will lead the way?

Rules: 1 point if you give thoughtful answers, which I will award after the timer ends for responses. The timer ends for responses at the moment the corresponding week's Sim is run.

Note: Use approximately 5 sentences as your bare minimum for 1 point. If you write 3 long, complex sentences, you'll still get a point. If you write 5, 3 word sentences, you will not get a point. Don't @ me.

Due: Deadline for Sim 5

[greepleairport]

The recent draft classes have been light on dominant big men, but the standings reflect that you can't win without a strong front-court.
Is it still the best strategy to build around dominant bigs?
If not, when will all these highly drafted guards begin to impact winning differently?
Who will lead the way?

It's funny- in a league dominated by dominant bigs, theoretically, Moses hasn't won shit. Hakeem ain't won shit. Ralph Sampson ain't won shit. McHale won, but he's always been just behind Magic as an MVP.

And speaking of Magic, he's a not terribly big guy that has always been the best the league has ever seen.

Other bigs have won too, obviously, because teams that win 'ships have complete rosters, but naming some of the best bigs the league has had, they haven't been enough to win it all. Are we a league still obsessed with bigs? Yes. We need to be. It is your best bet for success. But it's not guaranteed without smaller supports.

The Spurs are going to win this year. They have Mike Gminski and Darryl Chocolate Thunder Dawkins. That's tough ass front court. The best in the league, though? No. But he's also got Michael Jordan, Chris Mullin and Isaiah Thomas supporting. Elite players at every position - but MJ is their best player. Not a big.

Anyway, I think the transition has begun, but I don't think it will be complete until we exit the 80's and head deeper into the 90s. Michael Jordan is just a start.

[WigNosy]

I think there is an interesting trend so far in the league… in the regular season, you have to lean on dominant big men to rack up wins. The everyday grind rewards rebounding to give you extra possessions and without the extra points threes can give you on outside shots (since nobody takes threes at volume), interior shots - made much more frequently than jump shots, check any player’s shooting splits - and shot blocking to drive down your opponents’ interior efficiency - are at a premium. But in the playoffs, we see the value of a single explosive scorer, particularly on the wing with drives, since we have very few excellent perimeter defenders with size. In the playoffs you can gameplan to get that supernova scorer matched up against a poor defender and exploit that to win games.

So teams need both - a strong frontcourt gets you the regular season wins and home court, and the sublime unstoppable scorer or two gets you through the playoffs (not always a guard - think S1 Chocolate Thunder or Kevin McHale - but the Kings used Natt and King, the Blazers had Tripucka playing at C for the mismatches on their run, the Lakers used Dantley/Magic, the Nuggets had Alex English and the younger, scoring Dan Roundfield, etc.)

In other words, it takes a well balanced TEAM.

[K-100]

Is it still the best strategy to build around dominant bigs?
I think all of the contending teams have their frontcourts set so I dont think its the difference maker anymore, but the teams that have more athletic wings who can also clean up on the glass make the difference now.

If not, when will all these highly drafted guards begin to impact winning differently?
Yes, I think we are shifting toward that era now. The 3 pointer is not important yet but I'm expecting it will get there sooner than later.

Who will lead the way?
In terms of athletic wings - Charles Barkley, Terry Cummings, Clark Kellogg, and James Worthy are the prototypes. GMs should start to target these kind of players in future draft classes.

[BigDaddyd8720]

Is it still the best strategy to build around dominant bigs?
I don't think you need to necessarily build around a big man, but you definitely need someone down low to help slow down other teams. I think the days of the big men dominating are coming to an end soon. The game is slowly shifting to more outside shooting, as evidenced by the amount of players on the 3P% list. But having an elite big man does set yourself apart from the rest. There does seem to be a drop off from the top tier big men to the next tier.

If not, when will all these highly drafted guards begin to impact winning differently?
I think we will see these guards start having more of an impact in the next few seasons as elite big men start to fade out and the not-as-dominant big men start to come in. We're already seeing less elite big men in the draft so it won't be long until the game has a changing of the guard (pun intended)

Who will lead the way?
I hope Kevin Johnson leads the way. Already looking like a stud PG, just needs some more help around him to become fully unlocked

[Mike Lowry]

Is it still the best strategy to build around dominant bigs?
I'm going to part from conventional thinking and say that it remains the only chance at winning.
I think the fact that less dominant big men, by quantity, puts them at an even higher premium.

If not, when will all these highly drafted guards begin to impact winning differently?
I appreciate the comment about tweener/shorter players that have the impact of traditional bigs like Barkley, Kellogg, and Cummings. They will become increasingly relevant as skill talented tall players become unicorns, but the unicorns will remain the most important pieces until the mid 90s.

Who will lead the way?
I do agree that it takes an explosive scorer to survive the playoff gauntlet.
I think in addition to Jordan guys like Drexler, Hornacek, Scott, and Ellis are going to take big steps forward.

[logpmess]

The recent draft classes have been light on dominant big men, but the standings reflect that you can't win without a strong front-court.
Is it still the best strategy to build around dominant bigs?
I think that it is important to have good bigs, but their defense and rebounding is much more important than scoring. We see teams built around really good bigs, but the other assets often provide the push over the top. Terry Tyler as an all world defender has been essential for the Bucks. The Lakers have Magic on the wing. So the full build of the roster matters more than just a dominant big.


If not, when will all these highly drafted guards begin to impact winning differently? Who will lead the way?
Last year's class had some star players in Kevin Johnson and Reggie Miller. Those two will be scoring superstars in this league within just a few years.Or sooner in the case of KJ. Other than that, the last few drafts have been heavy with role players, which are going to be important to building a championship team. We can really start to see their contributions in about 5 years.

[IamQuailman]

I think we will start to see an influx of outside shooting, which will then start to see the league be more guard friendly. Up until now midrange snipers and guys who could get to the basket dominated (from a guard perspective). But with more sharp shooters coming in and a historical trend of increasing 3pt usage, the game is about to change... and big men will remain apart of that equation. However, as the number of offensively dominant big men start to dimish with time, we could see their offensive output become less important. Offensive bigs will always have a place, but I think the importance of rebounding will skyrocket as a result.