Uncomfortable Truths - Western Conference

[WigNosy]

We did the East last week, let's push through the West now. Again, the conceit here is that this is an "uncomfortable truth" but it could be something the league isn't ready to hear OR something the general manager doesn't want to hear. I'm just trying to find something interesting about each team here that maybe we don't talk about enough. As before, we'll go alphabetically by team name.

Clippers - The championship window has closed on the Reggie Theus era in San Diego
Massive respect to Raby for trying to build a team around Reggie Theus despite all the doubters out there. Unfortunately, the Clippers have been stuck on the edge of the playoff bubble pretty much their entire existence - winning too much to get a top draft pick so they could pair a superstar with Theus, but not having enough to punch through and get over the hump. Their biggest chance was probably in grabbing Mike Mitchell in Free Agency, but unfortunately they weren't able to get through the Western Conference gauntlet. Like most other people, I thought the Daryl Dawkins acquisition in the off-season was going to push them higher, and the Alex English acquisition this season was a smart one to try to replace Mitchell when he went down with an injury, but things just didn't fall the Clippers' way and they're stuck with a sub-.500 record again... and it's a roster where all the players are either in their prime or exiting their prime, so there's no promise of this squad being able to experience organic improvement from within. Every season, it seems like the Clippers are trying to decide whether to hit the "rebuild" button or push one more season to try to chase the title, but the Clippers aren't likely to have cap flexibility next season and will have to hope they win long lottery odds in order to make a meaningful impact without a trade. Maybe they don't tear it all down next season, but if Dawkins and English weren't able to lift them over the hump, what will it take and how are they going to get there? Also, they're a two-year luxury tax repeater this season - how long until they are forced to knuckle under to the tax?

Jazz - The Ralph Sampson trade was a masterstroke
I'm not just saying this because the Jazz just ousted the Trailblazers from the playoffs. This trade did several things for the Jazz at once, all of them positive. First, it gave them a franchise cornerstone to build around. Second, it showed everyone that Xist isn't afraid to take big swings, which means he will be on other teams' minds when they're looking to make a trade. Third, and perhaps most importantly, it gives Xist an embarrassment of riches at a critical position - big man. Look at this year's draft - it is pretty much bereft of quality power forwards and centers. The Jazz now boast Sampson, Otis Thorpe, Dennis Rodman, Kurt Rambis, and Xavier McDaniel (somehow playing at Shooting Guard!) - Xist has positioned himself well to find a team desperate for a big man and flip one or more of those guys to get a star backcourt player... not that he needs them, because Ainge, Sanders, and Ehlo were all perfectly serviceable this season! Basically, the Jazz look like they have pivoted nicely from the Kiki Vandeweghe free agency defection to become young, deep, and tall, and that's going to be a problem for the rest of the West for some time. This season's playoffs they are playing with "house money" - next season, when they aren't trying to adjust to Sampson on the fly and when Thorpe, Rodman, and McDaniel have had a chance to mature, they're looking terrifying.

Kings - Darth's impatience torpedoed a championship contender too early
Remember three years ago when the Kings were legitimate championship threats who were a year removed from a title with a Swiss Army Knife Defensive Player of the Year in Mike Gminski, two top-eleven scorers in Calvin Natt and Bernard King, all of whom were 27 or younger? Now it's a team that can't rebound, gets embarrassed on defense, and regularly finds itself at the bottom of the Midwest. Gminski is now in his prime and anchoring a top-three defense in San Antonio, Calvin Natt is leading the Warriors on a deep playoff run, and Bernard King just helped New York clinch an Atlantic Division title with another top-5 scoring finish as the Knicks' top option (over Moses Freakin' Malone). Can you imagine if that Kings core was still together? Instead we're looking at Mark Price (who is admittedly a better point guard prospect than Allan Leavell), Detlef Schrempf, and broken-legged Johnny Newman as the Kings' core of the future. If the Kings held their defense together with Alton Lister after trading away Gminski, trading Lister away cemented their defensive demise and, as noted earlier, big man help is simply not forthcoming in the draft. Even if he wins the lottery, Darth may have to trade one or both of those picks away to get himself a quality big man (I see you, xist!) and the question has to be, "will Darth have the patience to see the rebuild through?"

Lakers - They have no valuable assets other than Magic Johnson
I should be clear here - the Lakers have ASSETS besides Magic, but they don't have VALUABLE assets besides Magic. Every player of consequence on their roster is attached to an enormous salary and it's not at all clear that they would be nearly as productive away from Magic. The Lakers have made it clear that Magic is going nowhere, and they've done a surprisingly good job flipping ancillary pieces around him to put together a strong team, but it feels like the Lakers are pretty much out of moves. They don't have a first-round pick this season to get them a young asset. Magic is 27 and the rest of their key players are older than that, and likely to start declining. The Lakers are contenders this season, but after managing to dodge the luxury tax last season, they ran into it this season... and cap relief doesn't seem to be forthcoming next season, and their cap situation in 1988 is very tricky to manage. They can free up space in 1988 by declining team options on Dantley and Pressey during the 1987 season... the problem is Magic and Donaldson both have player options and if they see the team cutting Dantley and Pressey, do they decide to decline their player options and hit free agency? The Lakers won't really be able to plan for that in advance since the deadline for declining Team Options is the end of the regular season, while players choose to exercise player options after the rookie draft, meaning the Lakers could be staring down the face of an "instant rebuild" in the summer of 1988 without any chance to prepare for it... and if they lose Magic in Unrestricted Free Agency, then what? As far as I'm concerned, the Lakers really have only two options... either trade Magic this season before he has a chance to walk or ride things out and hope for the best... and it seems like they have already decided they are riding or dying with Magic. The Lakers should be fine next season, but in the offseason? Watch out.

Mavericks - This off-season is the Mavericks' chance to make the leap
I think the Mavericks' finish this season - a playoff team with 46 wins - surprised a lot of people. The good news for the Mavericks is it seems likely their core will remain intact this off-season AND they'll have a lot of cap space to use for adding players via trade or free agency... and with RFA looming for Sam Bowie the following off-season, this season seems like a great time for the Mavericks to try to take another leap before Dawkins and Webb have to be paid as well. The Mavericks are likely to have some flexibility the following off-season (they can decline Brad Davis' team option) but I think they should really be focused on building out their team this off-season so that they have more certainty going into Bowie's RFA off-season; generally, an up-and-coming team gets one, maybe two seasons where they can significantly add to their core before paying your RFAs locks your cap up, and this is that off-season for the Mavericks. If the Mavs aren't able to add pieces to push up the playoff ladder, they may wind up like the Clippers - always on the playoff bubble, never a contender - and after a couple of lean seasons in Dallas, I think patience may be wearing thin.

Nuggets - Clyde being purple and unable to be trained is slowing this team's rise
The Nuggets probably wish Clyde wasn't purple just yet so they could train his current ratings to reach his potentials faster. But they can't, and that's got to be a source of frustration - knowing that if Clyde was at his potentials, you'd have a beast on your hands... but since you can't train him, you have to wait for slow, organic growth, and it has felt like The Glide was "two TCs away from superstardom" for four seasons now. Plus, you're going to have to pay him in the off-season, and if you don't max him out, someone else is going to, so now you're in the position of having to pay him max dollars when he's still not even close to his max potential. I dunno, if I were the Nuggets, I think I have to seriously think about the question "can I wait for Clyde" or "do I trade him now for two guys who are stars now" because I have to wonder if Clyde is always going to be about the potential and never about the production. Or, as the old saying goes, "potential just gets GMs fired." Deciding whether or not to pay Darrell Griffith is also a tough choice, and I think the Clemon and Dennis Johnson contracts kind of force your hand - you're not going to be able to easily maneuver yourself into a lot of cap space to add new guys, so I think the Nuggets have to double down around what they have and hope for the best. If Clyde were closer to his potentials, I'd be more scared of the Nuggets now, as it is, they feel like a team that is waiting to arrive but hasn't quite arrived yet.

Rockets - Larry Bird's tenure has been wasted in Houston
There's no easy way to put this. Larry Bird should have been like Magic - a guy that dragged teams to the playoffs year after year. But the front office has been asleep at the wheel, exposing Larry to the whims of TC smites, and never making significant moves to add talent around him. It's just been a series of seasons missing the playoffs, drafting a young guy near the end of the lottery, and hoping that's enough new blood to get the team over the top. Even getting lucky and jumping near the top of the lottery to come away with Patrick Ewing hasn't helped this team shake the doldrums, and the correct move for the Rockets once they got Ewing would have been an immediate fire sale of Larry Bird and Otis Birdsong for as much young depth as you could get in return. Instead, we'll probably get an attempt to re-sign Birdsong to a contract he really doesn't deserve, and another season of mediocre to bad basketball in Houston. Sorry, 78, you had "the other Magic" and we saw what both Phoenix and the Lakers were able to do with their transcendent star, and with the reluctance to move on any trades (either around Bird or of Bird), I can't call his Houston tenure anything but a catastrophic failure.

Spurs - This team is more dependent on Kiki Vandeweghe than their young core.
The Spurs have Michael Jordan, Isaiah Thomas, Mark Aguire, Mike Gminksi... and yet, their leading scorer and focal point is still Kiki Vandeweghe. The rest of the league was up in arms when Vandeweghe defected to San Antonio in Free Agency a couple of years ago... and yet, it doesn't feel like the Spurs are inevitable and I genuinely think the Spurs could be in trouble after next season. Byron Scott was shopped around to "no takers" and both Scott and West are about to get paid in RFA this season. After that, Jordan is up for RFA. Now, you feel like if the Spurs want to hang on to these guys, they're going to be able to, which is fine, but the bigger worry has to be Gminski and Vandeweghe coming up for UFA next off-season. Vandeweghe has already shown he has no loyalty and Gminski didn't choose the Spurs in Free Agency - he was traded there - so who knows where his loyalties lie. Bottom line, the Spurs probably need to win the title this year or next or they could be in a lot of pain after next season.

Suns - This team is an up-and-comer and could get very good very fast.
We're used to watching the Suns lose since they traded away Magic Johnson... but the Suns could turn things around in a heartbeat. They have the Stockton-to-Malone combination that should improve with a couple more TCs, but they've also got Brad Daugherty, who is a very versatile center, and seem poised to add another star in the making in the off-season. If things hold, they'll have a very interesting decision to make at pick #2 - do they do a "fit" pick and grab a wing like Reggie Miller or Scottie Pippen, or do they try rolling out a "double-point-guard" lineup and take Kevin Johnson, Kenny Smith, or Mark Jackson. Either way probably spells matchup trouble for the rest of the league after a season or two, and with many of the other teams in the West about to deal with age, luxury tax constraints in paying guys in the offseason, or both, the Suns - especially if they can poach a younger player or two in Free Agency (restricted or otherwise) could come roaring back to life sooner rather than later. As long as Malone isn't OP.

Supersonics - They've let two impact cornerstones go before their primes and the next cornerstone isn't in place yet.
It's got to be a tough time to be a Seattle fan. You thought you had a franchise cornerstone in Dominque Wilkins. Then you thought you had a franchise cornerstone in Ralph Sampson. Now your franchise cornerstone is... Nate McMillan? Ed Pinckney? The Sonics have shown they have the guts to trade away stars; what they haven't yet shown us is that they can properly build around a star. Maybe the Green, Pinckney, McMillan core is their attempt to build a scaffolding around which a ready-to-explode star can be dropped in, but I've always felt it's more important to get the star then fit the supporting cast around the star rather than get the supporting cast and try to fit the star in. BigDaddyD8720 seems very engaged with player development and working rosters around the margins, and hopefully at some point we get to see him identify a transcendent star to build around. I thought that would be 'Nique and I though that would be Sampson, but maybe those guys just aren't to his taste. The question is, "who is?"

Trailblazers - The Blazers aren't special - they need their star (Worthy) as bad as every other team does.
The Trailblazers immediately folding like a cheap tent to the Jazz in the playoffs this year once Worthy went down should show that for all the talk Wig has about "a system" he is as dependent on stars as anyone else. The Trailblazers have never had a "transcendent" star, but let's be honest... they have had star players (Bernard King early, James Worthy lately, and Kelly Tripucka's playoff performance in Worthy's absence suggests maybe the Wig System is the problem as we all know it suppresses star statistics in favor of depth). We'll see if the Blazers ever manage to pull the trigger on a trade that gets them a mega-star, it seems like they've been getting things done on "B" stars but when the "A" stars get traded, they always seem to miss out. Moses went to the Knicks. Magic went to the Lakers. McHale went to the Bucks. Parish went to the Warriors. Were the Blazers ever rumored to be in the ballpark in those discussions? Perhaps that's the Blazers' Achilles heel.

Warriors - Robert Parish might not even net 15 points any more
Parish is up for Free Agency this off-season, and the Warriors have held on to him waiting for good offers. He's going to be 34 next season, and I'd be shocked at his age if he can command 15 points any more (maybe if someone signs him on a very frugal contract). This isn't to say Parish is a bad player - it's more about how value is fleeting in the NPBSL and that players quickly go from "cornerstone" to "maybe overpaid" to "you couldn't pay me to take him" - sometimes within the course of a season or two. And yet, Parish might still tag team with Jeff Ruland to eliminate the Lakers from contention. If Parish gets a ring this season, will he be worth 15 points?

[WigNosy]

OBJECTIVE: 2000+ words - 6 points
SUBJECTIVE: I don't feel it's fair to give myself subjective points, so 0.
TOTAL: 6 points.

[greepleairport]

if every gm isn't reading these for insight into their team, it's their loss. great stuff as always wig.

[BigDaddyd8720]

Loved this article. Everything you said about my team is true and it’s made me think maybe I need to stop focusing on player develop so much and start focusing on actually getting the already developed star player


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