S86 Town Hall 6

[Mike Lowry]

Looks like we are going to have tightly contested playoff races at the top and bottom of the brackets.
Parity might be settling over this period of NPBSL with many teams seemingly having a shot at the ship this year, and finding many ways to get wins.
Which metric is most telling of which teams will succeed come playoff time?
Who are some teams that hit this metric well?
What are some of the weaknesses of these teams that will make them vulnerable to being upset, even though they perform well in the most important metric?

Rules: 1 point if you give thoughtful answers, which I will award after the timer ends for responses. The timer ends for responses at the moment the corresponding week's Sim is run.

Note: Use approximately 5 sentences as your bare minimum for 1 point. If you write 3 long, complex sentences, you'll still get a point. If you write 5, 3 word sentences, you will not get a point. Don't @ me.

Due: Deadline for Sim 6

[K-100]

Point differential and road records are my eye test to see how good a team is in the league. Really good teams win on the road, it is just that simple. The ability to steal a game or two in the playoffs dictates all the momentum for a series and puts even more pressure to perform.

Once the standings shake out, you can start to look at individual matchups too to get a better look at who is ripe for upset. You want a guy that is the alpha dog and carry the team on his back when the game is on the line. Our league only has a handful of guys who fit that bill and unsurprisingly they are often on the best teams. The cream rises to the crop.

[BigDaddyd8720]

Point differential is always the first indicator for a good team. Seems obvious, if you score more than your opponents, you typically win the game. But that isn't the only indicator for a good team. For example, My Supersonics, before the infamous resim, was 6 games above .500 but we had a negative point differential. Which clearly shows that my team was due for some regression in the win column and then it happened right away post resim. Road records, as well as OFF/DEF efficiency are what stand out to me. Winning on the road is the most difficult thing to do and if you can win on the road, then you have a good chance at making it deep in the playoffs. Having a good combo of good OFF/DEF efficiency will also show how well a team performs.

Some teams that come to mind, outside of the obvious Bucks, Lakers, and Spurs are the Pistons, Trailblazers and Warriors. All winning road records, all top 8 in OFF/DEF efficiency

[WigNosy]

Looks like we are going to have tightly contested playoff races at the top and bottom of the brackets.
Parity might be settling over this period of NPBSL with many teams seemingly having a shot at the ship this year, and finding many ways to get wins.
Which metric is most telling of which teams will succeed come playoff time?
Who are some teams that hit this metric well?
What are some of the weaknesses of these teams that will make them vulnerable to being upset, even though they perform well in the most important metric?

I think I've mentioned before that I rely pretty heavily on point differential to forecast how well teams will do in the playoffs, but I don't think it's the be-all end-all metric. In Season 1, the Nets won it all with just a +0.7 differential (though the best differential that year was the Pacers' +7.6); Season 2's title went to the Bucks with a +9.3 (second-best), Season 3 was won by the Kings (+7.9, good for fourth-best), the Bucks repeated in Season 4 with a +15.6 (far better than the Warriors' runner-up +10.0), the Blazers eked out a title in Season 5 with a +11.0 (compare to the second-best Bucks' +10.5), and of course last year the Bucks won on a +16.5 differential but it took a last-second win in Game 7 to knock off the Lakers (+8.2). So only three times in the first 6 playoffs has the team with the highest regulare-season point differential taken home the crown, but after Season 1, the champ has always come from a team with a top-4 differential and usually teams that are significantly ahead of the field win, which means the Lakers are definitely the favorites to win it but the Bucks and Spurs should be hopeful and the next tier of contenders is probably the Knicks, Pistons, Warriors, and Blazers.

As for weaknesses on each of those contenders:
1. Bucks - Chemistry. They just added Purvis Short and while he is great, he's almost certain to decrease McHale's touches. Can Doug find the right lineup balance with the roster change?
2. Lakers - Durability. Magic has been injured in the playoffs before, and when he is, his teams inevitably lose. No team is so dependent on their star as this one, and one ankle sprain could torpedo their chances.
3. Spurs - Road Games. Most of the Spurs' losses have come to either the Lakers/Bucks (forgiveable) or on the road to some surprising teams (the Rockets? the Kings?). This will be most glaring against the Lakers if things hold and they don't have homecourt in the Conference Finals, but could bite them earlier if they give away home court by losing Game 1 or 2 in a series.
4. Knicks - Three and D. This team is dead last in the league in three-point shooting, and second-to-last in blocked shots. Their recent Jeff Lamp pickup probably helps the first but doesn't help the second, and against an interior focused, shot-blocking squad like the Bucks or Pistons (who don't get many of their shots blocked), they could be in trouble.
5. Pistons - Foul trouble. Alvin Robertson and Rob Williams are both foul-prone and Terry Cummings and Kevin Willis both pick up nearly 4 fouls per game, and the Pistons' bench can't always pick up the slack when those guys have to sit.
6. Warriors - Backcourt Scoring. Michael Cooper's lack of offense has been a sim league meme for years, and John Bagley is no great scoring attack; this team relies heavily on Chambers and Natt to pull their weight, but if one of them has an off game, who steps up to add scoring?
7. Trailblazers - Kelly Tripucka. When he has an off-shooting night, he shoots the Blazers right out of games. The problem for the Blazers is Kelly REALLY loves to shoot and is having an awful year doing so. If he recovers his 1984-85 playoff MVP form, the Blazers could surprise some teams, but he has shown no signs of getting back to that hyper-efficient scorer this season following getting nuked in TC in the 85-86 offseason.

[Mike Lowry]

Sorry for not doing the deep research, but I think I believe in FG%, Rebounding, and Made Free Throws for a playoff run. I also seem to think turnovers do some teams in when they run into the wrong match up.
That would mean the teams I think have strong chances in the playoffs are:
Lakers
Spurs
Bucks
Pistons
Celtics
Warriors
Blazers
Knicks
Jazz
Rockets
Cavaliers
Who are all top 5 in at least one category.
I'm going to remove the Rockets who are asleep at the wheel, and label the Jazz, Blazers, Knicks and Cavaliers as dangerous threats to the real contenders. I just don't think these teams have enough players playing into their prime to compete for the ship under the big lights, but they can knock any one of the others out in a given matchup.

[IamQuailman]

Point differential is definitely the key here; it's your biggest "quick glimpse" at success. Clearly not the end all be all as maybe early season could be due to easy schedule to start or maybe a mid-season trade swings the defensive dominance of a team. These kind of things can make differential not 100% accurate... but if you can track point differentially trending over multiple sims, I think that is the way to go (just more work).

One other thing you could look at is Defensive Efficiency. This stat tends to skew towards successful teams and could easily be used as a measuring stick for good vs not-so-good. This stat categort (or measurement?) makes the ole saying "Defense wins Championships" really come true. If you are really good defensively, you are probably going to the playoffs.

Here are that justify using this rating as a measuring stick:
#1 Bucks (duh)
#2 Lakers (best record in the league)
#3 Warriors (#3 seed in West)
#4 Trailblazers (#4 seed in West, tied with Warriors for 6th best record)
#5 Pacers (surprise current #6 seed in East, outperforming expectations due to defenive stoutness no doubt)
#6 Spurs (#2 seed in West)
#7 Nets (underachieving record-wise, but also had suffered injuries to key starters for multiple sims... outlier here by record)
#8 Pistons (#3 in the East, but 2nd best record)
#9 Hawks (#7 in East, game behind Pacers.... but could be another outlier in this)
#10 Jazz (#6th seed in West)
#11 Knicks (#2 in the East, maybe something people would argue is a flaw in my arguement)