Mike Lowry wrote: Thu Jan 09, 2025 10:35 pm
Which games in this Sim will be crucial to playoff seeding?
Great question. The easy answer early is that right out of the gate, the 4/1 and 4/4 matchups between New York and New Jersey; if Jersey sweeps those matchups, New York isn't mathematically out of the playoffs, but they'll be down 6 games with 9 to go (and with 2 games at Indiana and one at Milwaukee, not to mention other tough matchups with Chicago twice and Detroit), that pretty much finalizes the teams in the playoff in the East. In the West, keep your eye on the 4/2 game between Dallas and Denver; if Denver wins that game, they probably knock Dallas out of contention for the Midwest division and the #2 seed (San Antonio seems likely to stick around regardless of the winner there).
How do you see the games playing out?
New Jersey has already taken three of four from New York this season. I think both wind up relatively comfortable Nets win with a healthy Chocolate Thunder going for 30+ points in each game as the Knicks just don't have anyone that can slow him down.
The Dallas/Denver game is a harder one to call; Denver eked out a one-point win on 3/31 and I think homecourt is big in this matchup - I expect Dallas to win a nailbiter at home on 4/2.
What implications will the results have for each team?
I think this is when it becomes clear New York will not make the playoffs. I think the Dallas win just keeps muddying the waters in the Midwest division - I'll be surprised if the division isn't won by more than 1 game (or possibly has to have a tiebreak) - but it definitely keeps Dallas very much alive in both the hunt for the division crown and both Denver and Dallas (and San Antonio) will be motivated and fighting through the last day of the season.