Xist's Draft Prospect Overview - Blue Bonanza

[Xist2Inspire]

So...how 'bout dat draft file?

Maybe it's just me, or maybe it was the wait, but it seemed like a collective sigh was heard around the non-playoff teams in the league once the draft file released. Though 7 blue potential rookies is pretty solid, it seems like the general consensus is that this class is underwhelming. Does that assumption hold? Well, let's go over these guys and see.

Gene Joy

We’ll start with the oldest of the group. 21 years old as of now and 22 years old at next season’s opening, Joy will need to hit the ground running. Unfortunately, he's a bit of a strange one, with an odd mix of skills that hard-locks him into the SF position unless he's trained to be otherwise. He has a good amount of speed (79 QKN) for his size (6’6”), though it's really only impressive when matched up against slower Small Forwards. Actually? I take that back. As of now, the general speed tier for Shooting Guards tends to be 75-80. Of course there's a few elite athletes coming in above that, but generally it seems that it's easier than you'd think to keep up at the 2 these days. However, Joy’s not equipped to defend out on the perimeter at all. C potential in PRD can be improved, but D STL with a 14 rating is beyond salvaging. Joy’s actually a post defender (B PSD), which is…odd. Really, Joy’s more of a big than a wing. His rebounding ratings are a C (ORB) and B (DRB) respectively, and he's much better inside offensively (B INS), than he is anywhere else (D JMP, C 3PS). 70 FTS is great for his inside-focused game, but - going back to his athleticism - he doesn't nearly have the strength (42) or the vertical (63) to really take advantage of that, nor any of his skills really.

Joy needs training or a major TC boost to be anything other than an okay starter at best, fake blue at worst. Insurance is a must, as any TC drop will absolutely destroy him. Priorities for training should be PRD (to better help him flourish at the 3) and JMP (to take advantage of his INS and FTS). You could also boost his ORB if you have nothing to lose, but I wouldn't bother. His STR is just too low and his height too small to make him into a tweener. If he was younger it might be worth the time to try, but at his age, it's far better to steer him towards what he's most likely to be useful as (a foul-baiting slasher), as quickly as possible.

Raphael Cottrill

Unlike Joy, there's absolutely no confusion as to what Cottrill is. Cottrill’s a pure scoring/hustling guard who will never give up on either end of the court. At 6’5” with 80 QKN and 85 JMP, Cottrill's set athletically, and Bs in every offensive scoring skill sets him up quite well for the future. There's plenty of time to turn those Bs to As, given that Cottrill's only 19. Having a C in BLK is just icing on the cake, giving him another dimension to his hustle if you so choose. It's not all good though. There's a reason why I keep calling Cottrill a “hustler”...he’s a miserable on-ball defender, with absolutely no chance of ever becoming average. Boosting his BLK is the only way to give him some kind of legit value on defense, because high STL alone isn't enough to salvage getting lost in the sauce every trip down the court. As a matter of fact, Cottrill's pretty much worthless at anything that's not scoring or deflecting balls. He can't, and will never, be able to pass, handle the ball, rebound, or defend.

Despite his offensive potential, I can’t recommend drafting Cottrill as a true franchise centerpiece. He needs too much help from his teammates in other areas to really shine, making investing in him iffy if you're not confident in your ability to go out and get people to do what he can't. Also, failing to live up to his potential could see him end up as a great bench scorer/fringe starter, which isn't bad if you're not relying on him, terrible if you are. I think his peak is a Nightwing to another player’s Batman, and as such, I expect him to be a prime target for top-tier teams looking to take a temporary step back and train the next generation while riding off current success. If Mamba somehow gets his hands on him, watch out. His ideal spot as far as lotto teams go though? Boston. They already have a #1 option that - along with a solid core - gives them the flexibility to pour points into Cottrill to make him the best version of himself without hindering the growth of anyone else.


Vern Sheridan

Now this is an interesting one. 6’7”, 18 years old, 93 JMP, A potential INS & JPS. That's a recipe for a great scorer, with B FTS being the proverbial cherry on top. Sheridan should hit blue fairly easily off the strength of that alone, but there's one area that may keep him from reaching true superstardom: his QKN. 64 QKN almost hard-locks him to SF unless major investment is put into him on that front. 64 is fairly mid for the 3 as-is, and having to play there takes away the size advantage he would enjoy as a SG. Sheridan’s also quite poor defensively, with horrendous PRD and STL stats. C potentials in both areas doesn't inspire much hope for further growth there. Another blow to his viability as a SF is his utter lack of PSD, which means that if he does develop any defensive ability, it'll strictly be out on the wing.

However, in weakness lies opportunity. Sheridan's questionable QKN means that there might be an opportunity to sink points into potentials like 3PS, PAS, PRD, etc, without triggering a purple potential jump. While Sheridan’s athleticism is nowhere near as bad as this guy's was, Safi Fino-A-Laself is a prime example of how this type of strategic training can pay off. With that in mind, PAS should be the first thing trained, without question. For as rare as quality PGs seem to be these days, finding a gifted ballhandler of any type shouldn't be taken for granted. From there, one can go in any direction. Do you attempt to make him a more well-rounded player by training his defensive skills? Perhaps round out his offensive repertoire by boosting his 3PS? Focus on training his QKN to steer him towards a combo guard role that seems to maximize his size advantage? Sheridan isn't a high-risk prospect, but he is certainly a high-ceiling one. It's easy to see a path to Sheridan becoming a legitimate franchise superstar, but do you have a plan to/can you get him there? That's the question.

Tyrell Ahern

Ahern’s the midpoint between Cottrill and Joy, as he has Cottrill's superstar scoring potential with Joy’s mediocre physical profile and athleticism. Ahern is 55 points away from being a fully complete scorer (in terms of potential) at all levels. That's an absurdly low price to pay for As across the board. However, he’s 6’4” with 74 QKN and 63 JMP. That's just bad, regardless of how easy it is to get his QKN up to a respectable 79. Bringing it back to Joy, having 79 at 6’6” is solid. 79 at 6’4”? Ehh…you wouldn't be out of line hoping for just a little more.

Compounding the problem is the fact that Ahern's as pure of a shooting guard as they come. It's not just because of his height, he completely lacks any additional skills that would allow him to moonlight at another position. Fortunately, he has good defensive potential with Cs in PRD/BLK and a B in STL, though boosting those should be a stretch goal if anything. The thing about Ahern is that you're going to have to invest, and it's going to take a while. He's 18, which is good, but it’ll take 2 seasons to achieve the offensive A quadfecta, 3 seasons to reach 78 JMP. Ultimately I think he's the better choice for a rebuilding team over Cottrill, not only because of his higher ceiling, but because of how easy/cheap it is to get that last A. However, I’m just not sure how effective he'll actually be without a commitment to training his athleticism, and that jacks up his costs significantly.

Edison Doering

Yeah, this is who you've been waiting for. 6’3”, 95 QKN, 19 years old, only 1 potential rating lower than C. But, even though eventual superstardom is all but assured, it's gonna be a long time before he'll be playable. That orange current isn't for show, he really is that far away from being able to contribute. Of particular note is his double Cs in INS/JPS, with sub-20 currents in both. Barring substantial gains, that's going to take a while. To be perfectly honest though, there's not much I can say here. He's obviously the #1 pick, just be prepared to drop 37 points (C to B in INS or JPS, 77 to 81 JMP) up front, another 25 next season, and then coast

Even without training, he should still end up being an excellent PG capable of leading a team to a championship. If you look at current top PGs Darius Garland and DeJuan Baker, Doering’s basically the best of both - Garland’s athleticism with Baker’s height. Offensive capability would be his only weak point in comparison to those two in terms of skill. I will say this, though - if you're not looking to train him (or can't), then I don't think he's the clear #1 pick.

Hernaen Blanco

Here's the other option for #1, in my opinion. I'm assuming the “?” stands for “æ.” Please rename him. Blanco's Alphonse Morelock 2.0, minus the rebounding. You're wasting your time if you're planning to put him at SF, his low PRD overrides his height (6’8”). Really, if it wasn't for his PRD, I wouldn't rate him this high. His all-around athleticism is solid for a small forward, but spectacular for a power forward. Pair that with a well-rounded offensive game, and you have an undersized PF who knows how to use that to his advantage. Imagine a superstar-level Eddie Cruce, that's Blanco.

Now, if you choose to invest in him, the comparisons to Morelock will make even more sense. Merely boosting his C BLK to B would do wonders as far as improving his ability to defend, let alone bringing both his rebounding attributes up to B. In truth, I would probably just focus on his athleticism and hope for TC jumps to his Cs. A power forward with 81/81/81/100 athleticism is just ridiculous to conceptualize, and it's hard to imagine that that kind of player - even without TC jumps - would be a negative, lack of size be damned. But, if you can invest in him, then you can invest in Doering, and Doering just has so much more potential to single-handedly elevate a team. That's why Blanco is #2.

Granville Williams

From my 2 top-rated prospects to my least favorite. Guys I'm not going to sugarcoat it, I think Williams sucks. He's basically Ahern but worse. While it's easier to get all-A offenses and better athleticism (he's also 6’7”, which will make his athleticism an x-factor instead of the saving grace for Ahern), he doesn't do anything else. He can handle the ball and crash the offensive boards, but he's useless at anything that doesn't involve scoring.

To be fair to him though, I like his floor. Starting at yellow and being so close to having the offensive A quadfecta makes him almost a lock for being a productive scoring SF at worst. If Ahern and Cottrill don't quite pan out, their floor is much closer to “Role player who plays spot minutes” than “Quality 24-32 mpg scorer.” Training takes things from “almost a” to “sure” lock for Williams. But, like Doering vs. Blanco, if you're going in knowing you're going to spend points, why go for the guy with a lower overall ceiling, even if slightly?

So to close out, this is going to be an interesting draft. There's two clear standouts in my opinion, and a lot of questions surrounding the rest. Also, the top of the draft is a wing stop, which may complicate things for some teams. The Nets, for example, have Fly, Bones, and Cook. Is it Blanco or bust? The Mavs have Johnson, Reese, Scoot, and Parker. What do they do if they don't get #1 or #2 and Sheridan's already gone? I'm expecting some interesting trades and surprise selections, it'll be fun. As to whether it's underwhelming or not? Yeah, I think it is. There's just a lot of risk outside of Doering and Blanco, and Sheridan's really the only other guy I'd feel 100% comfortable with drafting and marking him as a centerpiece. Everyone else I'd take, but would just let them sit or patch up their major issues while I keep my eye out for something better. Generally if you're in/around the top 6 of the lotto, you're there for a reason, and would appreciate not having to take a flyer on a risky pick. And as we've previously established, the majority of these guys are risky picks for some reason or other. This is a draft that will be very interesting to look back on once it's time to re-up in RFA, just to see who actually turned out to have real promise.

Xist’s Big Board of Blue:

#1 Edison Doering
Similar to two of the top PGs in the league without training, the best of both with training, highest upside, PG bias

#2 Hernaen Blanco
Second-highest ceiling, has the athleticism to be undersized yet effective at PF, can be a monster with training

#3 Vern Sheridan
Instant scorer, great all-around potential held back by low QKN

#4 Tyrell Ahern
Has great offensive potential and isn't a lost cause defensively, but lacks size and athleticism

#5 Granville Williams
Almost guaranteed to be a great scorer, but cannot do anything else

#6 Raphael Cottrill
An all-around scorer who's set athletically, but is a hustle guy who may never become a team centerpiece

#7 Gene Joy
Will probably end up decent in the end, but has a confusing combination of skills, height and athleticism that's hard to deal with. Demands quick, decisive development due to his age

Greedy Extra Point Grab: Why Joy's Age is a Problem
Drafting older rookies can be a risk for rebuilding teams. Why? Well, you want to be as sure of your player and your direction as possible when your guy hits RFA, and older rookies hit RFA near the beginning of their peak. If you're aren't confident in that player’s production after 4 years of cheap development, then that’s a problem. After that contract ends, they’ll be at or near 30, no time to get a real return on investment if they didn't quite work out.

[greepleairport]

Changing everyone's view of the draft, certainly, minus the PG
Good stuff Xist
~2435 words, + 7pts
if you have a 65ish word addendum to hit 2500 words total, take an extra point

[Xist2Inspire]

Changing everyone's view of the draft, certainly, minus the PG
Good stuff Xist
~2435 words, + 7pts
if you have a 65ish word addendum to hit 2500 words total, take an extra point

Thanks bro, reworked a cut part and added it at the end.

[greepleairport]

an extra 95 words, claim that extra point if you have not already