S65 TC Results PLUS 8 Immutable TC Truths

[garbageman]

Garbageman Presents: Season 65 TC Results Plus


Usually, when training camp comes, I do all the data preparation before writing a word about things. That oftentimes results in me shitting out a paragraph or two of balderdash while clenching my teeth and trying not to have a minor aneurysm over at least one unexpectedly disappointing thing that happened to my team while everyone on the Spurs goes purple, and despite gaining hundreds of points, I have to talk @IamQuailman off a ledge.

This year, though, I’d been thinking about TC early. You see, @BlackSuperman was talking about something that had something to do with training camp, and I don’t remember what it was, but it inspired me to take all of the TC tables I have in my database and dump them into one giant table. Now, I’ve been doing this for a while, but I’ve only had this computer for 9 or so camps. Still, that’s a decent amount of data. It has hundreds of rows for players all of the most common ages in PBSL and up to 9 rows per player if they’ve been in the league the whole time.

I figured that I’d try to come up with some immutable truths about training camp. Then I wondered how many of these hard-researched secrets I should really be sharing when deductive research is one of the few strategic advantages you can earn yourself in this league. The answer I came up with is some of them, but not all.

Now, @AngryBanana just put out a test TC article which is kind of a MacGuffin. He mentions it’s one possible outcome out of many. It’s true that training camp is a range of outcomes. If you run training camp with the same stats multiple times, you’re going to see several different possibilities, but they’re not unlimited and they’re not all over the map. However, I have a pretty good idea that it’s not only the numbers for a certain player that influences the actual TC results. It’s also all of the numbers on your team and more than likely, all the numbers that all GMs put in for their teams*.

However, there are some things that seem to always happen, consistently, year after year. Before we dive into this season’s results, let’s take a look at some of those.

1. Free Throws don’t work like any other category

That’s right. While there is, on average, improvement in certain categories up to a certain point, free throws is the only category where the league averages a loss any insurable year (up to age 27). In fact, it averages a loss every insurable year. Luckily, the free throws attribute doesn’t matter all too much.

2. Quickness has a hard cutoff

Nobody in the past 9 season has gained or lost a point of quickness at age 28. Before that, nobody loses quickness, and after that, nobody gains quickness. But after 28, it appears plenty possible that quickness holds. In fact, from 29-32, you’re about 8 percent more likely to get hit in quickness than you are if your player is 33 or older.

3. Players are most likely to improve future color on their second contract

Or at the age when most players would receive their 2nd contract, assuming a standard 4 year rookie contract. Until age 23, there’s about a 5 percent chance a player will gain a color grade in their future column by getting either a boost to attributes or an athletic current gain if they’re on the borderline between two colors. From 23-26, there’s almost a 9% chance.

After that, only 1 28 year old has gained future color rating, and that guy was Alfonse Morelock who was nudged over the edge with a 2 point rise in stamina.


4. Stamina can go up at any age

Unlike the other athletic attributes, players can gain points in stamina well into their late 30s (and maybe even beyond). Common attributes can rise into the mid-30s, but it’s rare because many attributes are already maxed out by then and can only go down in one direction.


5. Quickness can grow, but it grows very slow

The maximum amount anyone’s quickness has improved in the last 9 seasons is 1 point per season. However, this can happen multiple times per player. In fact, Josiah Blair and Kevon Looney have both increased quickness in 5 separate training camps.


6. The 27 Club Does Not Apply to PBSL

Jimi Hendrix, Janis Joplin, Kurt Cobain, Amy Winehouse…the list goes on. But there’s only one person in the last 9 seasons who has ever gotten hit at 27. It was Landon Nicks of the Philadelphia 76ers, who was probably maxed out in his potentials and he only lost 2 points in free throws (the only stat where you just basically lose points for a while as mentioned before). I’ve said it before, and anyone who listened to me knew not to waste insurance on a 27 year old player, so anytime I see an old hat GM do that, I take note of that GM as someone who ain’t know shit about dick.


7. JMP never increases naturally

The best case scenario for JMP is that it stays the same. No matter what age you are, JMP doesn’t go up. As far as has happened already, anyone age 18-27 has only ever recorded a 0 change in JMP. Makes you think that training it should be extra special. It’s the only trait that is what it is until it starts to die, unless, of course, you pay.


8. 99.9 percent of the time, 10 is the highest increase any attribute can have

It’s happened before, but the sole exception here is that back in the Clippers days, Karlo Pearson gained 13 in PRD and 14 in STL. That’s about a one in 3000 chance, as I’m looking at exactly 2,997 TCs.


Anyway, TC results are loading, so it’s time for me to stop jibber jabbering and do some calculations…










…and done: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

* But really, who the hell knows

[greepleairport]

TC results +3
1000words +5
Cumulative data analysis +2 (I would've given 3 but the piece must be capped at 10pts)

I find extreme value in this article, especially for new GMs. Excellent.

[garbageman]

o hell ya