Garbageman's Guide To The Top Free Agent Targets

[garbageman]

Garbageman’s Guide To The Top Free Agent Targets For All You Max Cap Cats

Normally, free agency is the most exciting part of the offseason. If you have the cap space, the world is your oyster and there are so many possibilities as to what your team can end up looking like that it can make or break your entire season. And unlike training camp, you are the master of your own destiny.

As a GM who had a lot of cap space going into the draft, I looked ahead to free agency and saw…that it was a good idea to fill my cap space rather than taking home run swings once UFA day 1 came around. For the first time in a while, there are no purple potential free agents available, and at first glance, not even a lot of blue-blue guys who really moved the needle. Among that batch of blues, there’s one all-star and one all-league guy, and they’re the same frickin’ guy.

Still, a month of the league being down is a long time to keep up connections with simulated basketball players and my feelings towards most of the data symbolized by either random generated names or most hilarious sounding legal renames had waned. I imagine that most GMs had even less of an attachment towards these pieces of data from around the league, so this should be an interesting free agency with a lot of people placing a lot of questionable bids.

So, let’s not beat around the bush. Who are the guys to go after in a free agent class that isn’t quite stacked? Who deserves those bids that inputters love because they just have to press the MAX OFFER button rather than entering eight digits seemingly drawn from a hat?

Let’s start with the most obvious one.

1. Vaughn Milllsap

Of the 32 non-RFA blue potential players Vaughn “Thrillsap” Millsap was the one guy who made the all star team and an all league team. If you look at his attributes, they don’t jump off the page, but due to a high foul rating, he was able to put up video game numbers playing minutes like Doug was a slimier Tom Thibodeau. He led the league in three categories: points, turnovers, and minutes, but the scoring title alone makes him max-worthy. Other than that, he did make top 25 in steals, so he can play some defense, though he’s more of a turnover threat than a lockdown defender.

While a season like the one Millsap had was at least originally engineered to increase his stats and trade value on a tanking team, the success Millsap had on the field probably enamored the Pistons into keeping him. With the pickup of Ned Lomax, it’s likely that Millsap gets a max offer from the Pistons, perhaps even a supermax with a team option, but a max with a player option might be enough to get him if Vaughn doesn’t want to be worked to death.



2. Anas Mahmoud

The most important number on Anas Mahmoud’s profile is his height. He would be a good center if he was an even seven foot tall. His inside scoring and blocks are great. His post defense is solid, and his fouls aren’t problematic enough to limit his minutes. Add four inches and it makes him a much more dangerous and efficient player. He made top 20 in scoring, top 15 in blocks, and top 10 in field goal percentage. Those four injuries make his lack of rebounding skill more forgivable…even sufficient.

The Suns find themselves in an interesting position. They have been looking to upgrade Gates for someone with real impact, but there aren’t many players that the Suns would consider. And those players are the kind of guys teams hold onto for dear life. They’re the kind of players that…if you have them, you give up a serious shot at contending if you let them go, and even a looming tax burden isn’t enough to pry away those types of players. You’re seeing teams like the Celtics and Pacers who can and have reset the tax without having to give away their Blakeneys and Herberts…allowing those players to span across multiple pushes.

With 2 picks remaining in the draft and no time limit until the weekend, Black Superman has time to pull something off, but enough time has passed where he might have explored all his options. So unless something creative happens, the Suns find themselves in a spot where they don’t have enough cap space if Anas resigns first to get much more, but if they don’t fill that cap space soon, they won’t be able to at least guarantee MLE money. RFA could be a time where the Suns strike, but they gotta be smart about it, so watch what they do, and if they aren’t able to significantly improve their roster, which missed the playoffs on the back of a 44-38 record, who knows if they will want to really open the purse strings for Mahmoud when they could shift focus to building around Gates.



3. Alphonse Morelock

Unlike the two previous guys on this list, Morelock’s attributes overshadow his stats, but he was on a very balanced championship Warriors team and a big part in helping them get a ring. He was only on the leaderboard for blocks, and though he didn’t crack any other categories, he was no slouch in other areas, and he did so efficiently: 17 points on near 20 PER and near .600 True Shooting.

He’s a monster guarding the post, even at 6’8, and he can do a little bit of everything you’d want from a PF. Aside from scoring, he held his own on the glass with a rebound rate higher than Mahmoud despite giving up eight inches. The most important number though that might make Morelock a top-tier must-get is his back to back championships. He won a ring with the Grizzlies the year before and played an even bigger role in the Dubs win.

That being said, if the Warriors want to run it back, bringing Morelock back onto the roster would be priority numero uno for the Bay Area boys. Based on his age, his skillset, the Warriors situation, and the Warriors GM, he might be the most likely to be supermaxed.



4. Terrence Lewis-Weeks

Holy cow, this should show how shallow this free agency class is. This should show how silly it is to hold out cap space for UFA if you’re competing. I don’t think TLW is worth a max, but he might be close. He’s coming off a max contract, and to be honest, he played like crazy in his contract year, so he wants to keep living as close to the lifestyle he’s acclimated himself to as possible. Weeks scored 20 points per game, which was enough to land him in the top 25, and a lot of those points came from beyond the arc, where he shot .410, which was also enough to put him in the top 25.

That might not sound impressive enough to gain him consideration on his list, but his efficiency numbers were incredible. He played 33 minutes a game and kept up a whopping .642 true shooting percentage on 1.49 points per shot. He’s a solid free throw shooter with a 98 JMP (see Vaughn Millsap) which might even get you an extra point or two in the slam dunk contest. Dang, look at his athleticism. I’m starting to talk myself back into him.

As for his incumbent team’s plans, I’m not sure. The Mavericks have a fairly new GM, and that’s always a volatile situation. They could go either way. They have Scoot Henderson coming up along with Candice Parker and Jonathan Kuminga, and their roster is pretty full as it is. That being said, there’s not much else the Mavs can do but try to resign him. The question is how much they value TLW on a team that doesn’t really need him—or how confident they are in their ability to move him for more assets at what price.



5 (TIE). Tony Parris and Brian Loos

Honestly, I know I can’t talk Tony Parris or Brian Loos up as much as I did with TLW. Unlike the other names on this list, Let’s start with Tony.

Tony Parris is 30, but there weren’t any more young guys under 30 who were worth sniffing either. So, I’m looking for bigs, since age doesn’t affect their skillsets as much because they’re not getting any smaller.

Tony Parris is a good big guy who will not foul and who swatted 4 shots per game. His field goal percentage and rebounding were both in the top 15, so if you’re looking for the best guy on your team in these categories to be better than anyone on at least half the other teams in the league, he’s it.

Brian Loos is a very similar player. He’s just behind Parris in rebounds and blocks, and he’s got an extra 2 inches that helped him to the 2nd best FG% in the league. His true shooting/points per shot were both slightly lower than Terrence Lewis-Weeks, which speaks even more to TLW, but it’s nice numbers for anyone (Loos is shooting .636 TS and 1.45 points per shot).

So Loos has Tony Parris on scoring efficiency by a decent margin thanks to those two inches. Loos also is surprisingly good at steals. Where he’s lacking on Tony Parris is post defense and foul rating. So if you want offense, you’d probably prefer B-Loose, but if you want a more solid defensive presence under the rim, you might rank Tony Parris higher.

As far as team situations, Parris is coming off the Pacers, who, uncharacteristically, might try to compete despite flirting with tax jail. They’ve got He Hot and Jericho Sims under contract right now, and without many assets to improve (or even get out of) those contract, they might be the best support system for Herbert Jones. Pauly might hope that Parris/Sims/Hor/MLE might be all the support Jones needs if Herb has a TC that fills him out enough to near his ceiling as an MVP caliber player. Even if Jones DOES reach Blakeney status, he might not want to bid over Parris’ value, so TP could be a steal.

Brian Loos, on the other hand, is coming off contract with the Cavs. They have a solid amount of cap space, but with the roster they have being heavy on rebuilding players, there’s really no reason for them to want to spend big on Loos unless they’re preparing to cash in on the heap of solid rookie contract players they’ve amassed over the last few seasons.







BONUS - RFA TARGET SPOTLIGHTS

When RFA comes there are guys you know will be auto-matched, if not auto-maxed. Mac McClung and Hoyt Timmermann probably aren’t going anywhere unless you somehow beat a supermax and also have extremely valuable trade pieces to work with. And even then, they’re probably not going anywhere because there’s no way to overpay them. However, if you’re heading into RFA with some cap space and a team that’s on pace to compete soon, but not too soon, consider going after one of these guys:

1. Ron Harper Jr.

The Nets came so close to winning the championship, and it cost them every point they had (and one point that was friendship trade given to them by the Spurs). They’ve also got 3 huge, old contracts on their roster and are already about 100mm over the cap with 6 guys on their roster (assuming they use their MLE). They’re heading into year 4, so every extra dollar Ron Harper Jr gets is one that will assuredly work against paying that max repeater tax next season. Thus, the Nets should be judicious with matching any RHJ offers.

Though he only played limited minutes, his advanced starts are like if you imagine Terrence Lewis-Weeks, but on steroids. He’s 6’9. He’s faster, and he can jump better. He has a perfect 100 in JMP. That helped him to 1.68 points per shot on .688 true shooting. Those are video game numbers right there, and he’s not even maxed out. RHJ shot .435 from beyond the arc, and he still has room to improve his attribute there. He’s also a much better shot creator than TLW will ever be.

His only hole is defense, but if you’d consider maxing TLW, I think Harper is worth at least what you’d consider giving Weeks. For one, his max contract is lower since he’s only got 4 years of experience, and he’s still got some room to grow defensively. On the right team, he could be MIP hands down. And unless the Nets can blow it up somehow by getting rid of 80-90mm contracts without any points or picks to trade, I don’t think they can really afford to retain Harper without serving season 65 behind bars in tax jail.


2. Justin Amos

Justin Amos is also a player who could have a breakout year. He’s similar in a lot of ways to Ron Harper Jr. The most standout way is that he also has 100 JMP. Right now, he lacks the efficiency stats, and he’ll always lack the size, but eventually he’ll grow into a fierce scorer and a solid defender who can pass and rebound well, too. He’s not there yet, but he’ll be a much more versatile player than RHJ, although I think Harper will have a much better scoring edge if we’re speaking purely in buckets.

The one thing that works against you getting Amos is that the Hawks are in a much better financial situation. They’ll be able to match any bid on Amos without having to worry too much about the consequences, so if you’re going for him, make sure you have ammo to use in sign and trade talks. Who knows, maybe the new Hawks GM doesn’t have enough talented big men?


3. Thomas Walker

Unless Roberto’s holding running the 2nd round hostage until he moves Evan Mobley, the Lakers already have a lot of cap space tied up, especially in big men. They’re sitting around the same spot on the cap report as the Nets, however, their point bank runs a lot deeper, and they’re only entering year 3 in the tax. Walker also isn’t a surefire star on the level of Harper Jr., but he is a solid big man at the right price. Mamba will likely retain him unless you put in a stupid bid, and you’d be stupid to put in a stupid bid on him, but Mamba is also savvy on the trade market. The right bid might net you Walker if you have something to give back that’s more valuable to the commish than it is to you.

Mostly, Walker should be on your radar because he might just be a low-key good player, and while everyone is focused on the obvious top guys enough to take pie in the sky moonshot bids at guys they won’t end up with, you might be better served to pay attention to the more mid-range guys you could be missing out on. Even if you win Walker with an offer that Mamba will match, you’ll at least get a good opportunity to talk with one of the most likable guys to trade with.

[greepleairport]

2577 words, +8pts

you forget to mention silvo pardo. he's only asking $37m to keep your bench warm!