Mamba's Dead Wrong Playoff Predictions

[MexicanMamba]

Word count: 3,200



Dark days have taken over PBSL, with the Pistons reign of terror over the league continuing into its fourth straight season. Much blood has been shed, tears wept, egos shattered and willingness to make big trades wiped out. This past off-season though? A sliver of light at the end of this deep, dark tunnel. Moves were made all around by GMs trying desperately to put an end to these bleak times.



Then the Pistons won 73 games and grabbed the #1 overall seed anyways.



So, is there any hope for the rest of us in these playoffs still? Let’s dive in!





BYES: Detroit Pistons, Los Angeles Lakers







ALPHA







ROUND ONE







(2) New Orleans Pelicans vs. (7) Sacramento Kings



Season series: 4-1, Pelicans



1/2/50: Pelicans 134 – Kings 104

2/5/50: Kings 82 – Pelicans 107

2/15/50: Kings 98 – Pelicans 121

3/14/50: Pelicans 126 – Kings 94

4/13/50: Pelicans 101 – Kings 114



Key players:



For the Pelicans, the answer is very simple, Lu Dort. In three of the four Pelicans wins in the regular season series, Dort was player of the game. In those five games, Dort averaged 25.4 points, 6.4 assists and 5.8 rebounds per game, including games where he scored 43 and 31. In the one Kings win, Dort was held to 11 points, helping to prove that this is the guy the Kings obviously must key in on. Toni Gauss has been an important player for the Pelicans all season as well, however his influence against the Kings was way below his season averages, particularly in scoring (25.5 ppg vs. 18.6 ppg) and yet the Pelicans kept on beating them. So, if Dort goes, so will the Pelicans.



In Sacramento, the answer is the same as it has been for all of 15 seasons now, it all starts with Killian Hayes. Unlike previous seasons, Hayes is not being asked to should lead scorer duties this season but playing starting Point Guard (as he should have been doing his entire career) means that he gets to have his hands in every aspect of these games. Unfortunately for the Kings, he was mostly shutdown against the Pelicans in every game, only eclipsing 20 points in one of them (a loss). Even in the Kings lone win this season, it was Myke Henry who grabbed player of the game honors. If the Kings have any shot at an upset, Hayes has to step his game up since he will be matched up head-to-head with King Dort. Myke Henry is obviously the other name that needs to be mentioned here, as he is the Kings leading scorer and he is going to need to consistently win his matchups against 2nd Team All-Defense, Ned Lomax.







Key stats:



Kings points allowed: 16th (110.5 per game)

Kings defensive efficiency rating: 14th (109.0)

Kings offensive efficiency rating: 20th (105.5)

Pelicans scoring: 2nd (120.1 per game)

Pelicans offensive efficiency rating: 4th (112.4)

Pelicans defensive efficiency rating: 3rd (100.5)







Summary:



Looking at the season series, Dort’s play compared to Killian’s AND those lopsided offensive/defensive team statistics and this is a clear mismatch and I really don’t see any chance at an upset here unless there is some massive injury issues that pop up for New Orleans. The Pelicans play great offense and defense and the Kings … do not. I look for Dort to pile up numbers in every aspect of the game and move on relatively easily to the next round, where the competition should get significantly more difficult.



PELICANS, 4-1







(3) Milwaukee Bucks vs. (6) Utah Jazz



Season series: 3-1, Bucks



3/9/50: Bucks 143 – Jazz 78

4/4/50: Bucks 116 – Jazz 106

4/7/50: Jazz 127 – Bucks 125

4/14/50: Bucks 122 – Jazz 118







Key Players:



The Jazz have a nice collection of talent, headlined by back-to-back-to-back defensive player of the year, Les Kim. Not only was Kim the DPOTY and first team All-League and first team All-Defense, he was also the Jazz leading scorer by a wide margin (24.9 points per game, 9th in the league) and #4 rebounder in the league. He is a bonafide star on both ends of the court. His second-in-command is Zaire Wade, a defensive dynamo for many seasons now and still a solid contributor on the offensive end (17.9 points per game). Against the Bucks this season, only one of these guys held up their end of things. Les Kim averaged 23.7 points, 11.2 rebounds, 1.7 blocks per game. The blocks are much less than his regular season average, but the other two are just about on the money, showing that Kim can still be a force against the Bucks’ lineups. Wade on the other hand was a bit of a trainwreck in this series. After season averages of 17.9 points, 6.1 rebounds, 5.3 assists and 2.3 steals, Wade’s averages dipped to 12.5 points, 4.7 assists and 3 steals, with rebounds dropping as well. Wade’s uptick in steals makes sense since the Bucks have only one legit ballhandler, but everything else tanked, making him a non-threat.



Milwaukee has their three-headed monster of Saddiq Bey, Kory Manley and Talen Horton-Tucker. If the Bucks have any hopes of dethroning the Pistons ultimately, it’ll rest solely on the shoulders of those three because the rest of the roster is lacking much firepower. There really isn’t much to say about Bey, because he is an absolute superstar. He was a bit up and down with his scoring against the Jazz (games of 44 and 37 along with ones of 16 and 15) but he was dominant in every other facet of the game each time out. Really, all three of these guys were uneven in their scoring during this series, with each having two great scoring games and two subpar ones. However, that is the beauty of having a three-headed attack, they can all take turns in this way and still win big because they have each other to pick-up the slack.



Key stats:



Bucks points: 4th (117.2)

Bucks points allowed: 5th (104.7)

Bucks offensive efficiency: 3rd (113.6)

Bucks defensive efficiency: 4th (101.4)

Jazz offensive efficiency: 18th (105.9)

Jazz defensive efficiency: 10th (105.2)

3-0 (Purples)



Summary:



As should the case, this looks like a mismatch on paper. The Bucks are top 5 in the key offensive and defensive categories while the Jazz, even with two elite defenders, are barely hanging around in the top 10 on that side of the ball and are even worse on offense. Besides the first game between the two teams, I am surprised that the Jazz were able to keep the other three games relatively close (and win one). I don’t know if Gary will even put lineups in to try tweaking some things, while Doug probably will. If Gary still had THT instead of gifting him over, I think I could find myself picking the Jazz to take this one, but as it is, the Bucks should roll.



4-1, BUCKS









(4) Boston Celtics vs. (5) Indiana Pacers



Season series: 2-2 Split



11/3/50: Pacers 80 – Celtics 88

11/18/50: Pacers 117 – Celtics 107

1/11/50: Celtics 133 – Pacers 111

2/3/50: Celtics 100 – Pacers 105



Key Players:



There are three guys in Indiana who could have an impact on how this series goes: Herb Jones, Patrick Williams, Tony Parris. Herb Jones is a young phenom, athletically gifted, good shooter and solid ballhandler and rebounder, and 2nd on the team in scoring (18.9 points per game). Williams is the team’s leading scorer and is versatile enough to play multiple positions to give the team flexibility. Parris is a defense first guy, getting on both the 2nd Teams (League, Defense) and finishing 4th in the league in blocks (3.6 per game). It is tough to gauge these players fully, because the lineups for the Pacers have shifted as the season has gone on (Canfield started the season as a starting big but then lost minutes and was traded) and some players have moved around. Herb definitely did not work as the PG in their first meeting, but he also struggled in the final game on the wing… which the Pacers still won.



The Celtics are a one-man show, and that show is called the Antonio Blakeney Experience. Sure, Ousmane Dieng was a solid help, but this whole operation lives and dies by the hand of AB. Blakeney could have (should have?) been the MVP with all of the responsibility that he has on his shoulders and leading this roster to 54 wins and the 4 seed. With season averages of 25.8 points, 7 assists, 1.4 steals and 3.8 rebounds, he would have earned it too. The Pacers did a solid job on AB through their games against each other. He had one game below 15 points even. He went over 20 in the other 3, however he never exploded for 30 or 40 or more in any game, which is all you can ask for with a player of that skillset. This would explain why the series was deadlocked.



Key stats:



I would list all of these team stats that I did for the other matchups so far, however all it would do is confirm how even these two teams appear to be. In pretty much everything, they are separated, at most, by a spot or two on the rankings for team statistics. Match that up with their 2-2 record against each other and this could possibly be the closest series in the first round.



Summary:



I expect things to stay close when this series starts. AB vs. P-Will/Herb/Parris. Godzilla vs Ghidorah, if they were all about 1/100th the size of those creatures (Sorry, they can’t be the actual size at the 4 and 5 seeds). I’ll stick with the higher seed since they will be at home but it’ll go to the wire.



4-3, CELTICS











ROUND TWO







(1) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (4) Boston Celtics



Season series: 3-2, Lakers



3/5/50: Celtics 100 – Lakers 115

3/10/50: Lakers 111 – Celtics 114

3/13/50: Lakers 120 – Celtics 117

4/18/50: Celtics 101 – Lakers 111

4/20/50: Celtics 130 – Lakers 118



Key Players:



I’ve already said all that I need to say about Blakeney, and that continues here. However, the Celtics have no shot here unless they get some help elsewhere, because a one-man show will not beat the 72-win Lakers. So, Ousmane Dieng and Mitchell Robinson will be needed to provide some extra sparks. Dieng needs to be able to match Pearson’s output at the very least, though he may also get a lot of time competing against the 6th Man of the Year, Safi Fino-A-Laself. Robinson also needs to find a way to minimize the impact of the Lakers’ 3-pronged attack in the front court.



In Los Angeles, the engine is turned on by the key of the offense, newly crowned MVP, He Hor. The league leader in assists (11.4 per game), He Hor controls everything for the Lakers, pace, tempo, offensive setups. If you can bother him, you might have a shot at making them stumble. The other two pieces that I’d consider crucial to their success are 1st Team All-Defense member, Karlo Pearson, and Safi. Pearson is the captain of the defense, which was great considering the breakneck pace that this team played with in the regular season. Safi was the leading scorer for the team even though he came off the bench and having that kind of punch when a starter comes out is difficult to match.



Key stats:



Lakers points: 1st (125.0)

Lakers points allowed: 14th (109.5)

Lakers pace: 1st (107.2)

Lakers 3P%: 1st (.409)

Lakers offensive efficiency: 1st (116.3)

Lakers defensive efficiency: 5th (102.0)

Celtics points allowed: 9th (106.1)

Celtics defensive efficiency: 9th (104.9)

Celtics offensive efficiency: 7th (110.1)





Summary:



In the regular season the Celtics managed to pull two wins from the Lakers and kept all of the other games close, with the Lakers never reaching their season average in scoring. The team statistics say that this shouldn’t be close, maybe even a sweep. For whatever reason, this Celtics roster gave the Lakers fits and I really could not tell you why. It will be interesting to see how things go between these two teams with both sides game planning just for the other one. I still don’t see an upset coming (it’d have to be the biggest in history), but if the regular season means anything, the Lakers won’t have an easy road.



4-2, LAKERS









(2) New Orleans Pelicans vs. (3) Milwaukee Bucks



Season series: 4-1, Bucks



11/11/49: Pelicans 130 – Bucks 137

2/27/50: Pelicans 106 – Bucks 112

3/10/50: Pelicans 103 – Bucks 116

3/19/50: Bucks 136 – Pelicans 123

4/16/50: Bucks 123 – Pelicans 127



Key Players:



Lu Dort and Toni Gauss vs. The Purple People Eaters. Kind went over all of this earlier so no real need to rehash here. Dort has to run the offense to perfection every game to push the 2 seed Pelicans over in this series. If he doesn’t? Well …



Key stats:



You can compare them up above if you really want to see! As mentioned, the Bucks are dominant on both sides of the floor. The Pelicans have been too, and their defensive efficiency is higher than I would have guessed coming into the season … But ….



Summary:



They just don’t likely have enough top end horses to keep up in this case.



4-2, BUCKS









CONFERENCE FINALS









(1) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (3) Milwaukee Bucks



Season series: 3-1, Bucks



11/3/49: Lakers 85 – Bucks 121

11/19/49: Lakers 110 – Bucks 107

11/25/49: Lakers 100 – Bucks 105

3/28/50: Bucks 123 – Lakers 112





Key Players:



You know who it is for the Bucks. You probably know who it is for the Lakers. For the Bucks, at least two of the big three have to come to play every game. For the Lakers, He Hor has to be efficient and keep turnovers down and needs at least one of his other scorers to be on.



Key stats:



On both sides we are talking about the top end of team statistics. The Lakers’ offense has been incredible all season, which is the obvious strength of the team. The Bucks have to counter that with some defense and Bey needs to take over.



Summary:



The first three games of the season series are kind of irrelevant here. In those, the Bucks didn’t have Horton-Tucker and the Lakers didn’t have He Hor or Canfield. The final game is the one where both teams were full-strength, though it’s hard to say if its indicative of what is to come or just too small a sample size. In that game however, the Bucks took it to the Lakers on the road. Rebounding and 3-point shooting won the game for the Bucks, both of which they were worse than the Lakers are in the regular season, even if the margin was not too great. If that happens more in this series, the Bucks will win. If the Lakers take things to their norm during the season, they will. While I want another shot at the Pistons, I do get the feeling that my road ends prematurely because in the end, 3 purple current players has never happened and they should be dominant, even if they hadn’t been to this point. Plus, Bey might be the best player in the league.



4-3, BUCKS











OMEGA





** Sorry Omega, I got pulled away for an important work situation and just was not able to continue giving as much in-depth analysis. Please forgive me and accept that I still care about you guys. Mostly. **





ROUND ONE







(2) Chicago Bulls vs. (7) Orlando Magic



Summary:



I was surprised to see that the Magic won 2 of the 5 games in the regular season series. The front court in Orlando is really strong, which is very likely the reason that they had so much success in this match-up. Unfortunately for them, I imagine that once Josh digs into this and starts putting his players in more advantageous situations, the Magic will fold fairly early. Montoya should dominate regardless of where he’s placed and Garland was peaking before injuries, which are fully recovered.



4-1, BULLS









(3) Washington Wizards vs. (6) Miami Heat





Summary:



The Wizards have been quite something the past two seasons, winning a lot of games with rosters that generally aren’t built to last in the league in this day and age. The Heat are a really fun story with a GM that is learning under fire, by trial and error, but at least they are really active and making moves. I am going to lean towards the team with the better game planner and experience, but I am really impressed by the Heat’s activity and who knows what they might be able to get out of another off-season of moves and tinkering.



4-2, WIZARDS





(4) Memphis Grizzlies vs. (5) Houston Rockets





Summary:



The Rockets felt hopeless after free agency and those wacky recommended contracts. Ultimately, they still might hate themselves for those deals, but a decent playoff season is at least some consolation, especially in the one season where they didn’t have their own 1st round pick. The Grizzlies might be the team I should have placed at the top of my GM of the Year list in my recent article. K100 got ragged on for his moves in the off-season, but then went and won 52 games with a Center playing Shooting Guard (and thriving there, by the way). I am kind of hoping that the Rockets win, but I think I’ll pick David Bower and his Bears.



4-3, GRIZZLIES







ROUND TWO







(1) Detroit Pistons vs. (4) Memphis Grizzlies





Summary:



My first instinct is that this is not going to be close at all. However, K100 has a knack for putting in outlandish lineups and making them work. I don’t think the Pistons are in any trouble, but they might lose an extra game than they have any right to in this series.



4-2, PISTONS







(2) Chicago Bulls vs. (3) Washington Wizards





Summary:



The Wizards are a great story and fantastic game planner, but this will be a case where talent simply wins out. That is not to say that Josh is not also a great game planner, because he knows how to tinker, but Montoya alone is much better than anyone else in Washington. Too much firepower, too good of playmakers.



4-1, BULLS





CONFERENCE FINALS







(1) Detroit Pistons vs. (2) Chicago Bulls





Summary:



There’s nothing to point at and say that the Bulls are going to be able to knock over the juggernaut that is Detroit. I trust that Josh will throw every different way that he can come up with at Scott to try to steal a win on the road to flip the script, but I think Detroit is still too strong with Folse and Caruso and Cunningham. Montoya will have to truly EXPLODE in a couple games to change destiny and I am not sure if he will.



4-2, PISTONS







FINALS







(1) Detroit Pistons vs. (3) Milwaukee Bucks





Summary:



Listen, let’s just get to the skype chat rap battle antics of Doug and the nonchalance of Scott, to amuse all of us … and make Raby cringe. This would legit be Godzilla vs Ghidorah with all of these damn purples in one place. I think this series would be a lot of fun if Scott decides to take himself off of cruise control for the playoffs. I imagine that he will, especially if this is his matchup, just to have fun with Doug.



Unfortunately for everyone else involved, I think this Pistons Era ends with a 4-peat and a lot of shattered dreams and giant tax bills.



4-2, PISTONS

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[garbageman]

-3000 words for reverse cursing

[greepleairport]

-3000 words for reverse cursing

lol
3200ish words, +10pts

nice job doubling your meoty noms