Wig's 2005 RFA Scouting Report

[WigNosy]

MORTAL LOCKS TO STAY
The first "tier" of RFAs is the group that are vital to their teams' aspirations, and that teams will have no hesitation giving max contracts to. You can definitely take a crack at these guys, but you'd better bring a max offer, and you'd best do it on the assumption that the incumbent teams are going to match anyway. In other words, if you sign one of these guys, track down their owner and lock him in a cellar with no internet for 24 hours.

Pau Gasol, Grizzlies
The Grizzlies shipped off Marion and Vince Carter to get enough points to pay their tax bill just so they could exercise Gasol's RFA rights. You really think they aren't matching?

Gilbert Arenas, Nuggets
The Nuggets don't have enough cap space to bring in any additional talent and they're in "win now" mode. They'll eat the tax bill and match.

Zach Randolph, Hornets
Richard Jefferson, Hornets
These two have formed the backbone of the Hornets' rebuild, and Nick Malone has steadfastly held on to them. He won't let them walk in RFA... though he might trade them as soon as the RFA trade restriction falls off.

Steven Hunter, Celtics
The Celtics' dominant periods were hallmarked by a monster big man. Conroy's proven love of scoring, shot-blocking bigs tells me Hunter is going nowhere fast.

Joe Johnson, Timberwolves
Johnson is one of the Timberwolves' key pieces. The accumulation of "role players for cash" just before the RFA deadline tells me they're already planning to be over the cap and have no regrets about it.

Tyson Chandler, Kings
The Kings have a hole in their roster at Center and can point to injuries as to why they missed out on a chance at a title. There's no way they're not prepared to re-up Chandler.

SO YOU'RE TELLING ME... THERE'S A CHANCE
This tier of RFA's are guys that you'll probably need to throw max money at - or near max money - to sign because other teams are going to come after them too. However, for one reason or another, I don't think it's a mortal lock the incumbent teams will match. There are scenarios to land these guys in RFA and keep them. But don't get too excited if you sign one - most of these guys are probably going to finish RFA in a "matched" state.

Tony Parker, Pistons
I don't think the Pistons want to part with Parker, who has shown he can carry a team's scoring load... but I have to think that with his "green potential" there might be room to pry him away in a sign-and-trade.

Troy Murphy, Wizards
Vladimir Radmanovic, Wizards
Remember, the Wizards still have to re-sign Shaq to keep their squad intact, and that is going to eat up all the cap space they have. Both of these aren't going to leave, but I have to think one of them is simply because if they matched maxes on both Murphy and Radmanovic, they'd be in a luxury tax death spiral if they bring back Shaq. If both of these guys get max deals, teams that manage to sign them will definitely have the leverage not to accept a sign and trade.

Shane Battier, Hornets
Nick says Battier is a key piece. But I happen to think if there's one of his "key three" RFAs he'd be open to losing, it's Shane... but I also think he'd demand a sign-and-trade to do it.

Gerald Wallace, Nets
The addition of Vince Carter makes me wonder if the Nets are hedging their bets in case Wallace gets a deal that's too rich for their blood. I don't think it's likely they wouldn't match him... but I can see a scenario where it happens.

Bobby Simmons, Grizzlies
I don't have a good sense on how much the Grizzlies like him, but he's got a nice potential rating and someone's going to pay for that. He might move, but more than likely, Louie made sure he was part of the package he got for selling off VC/Marion and already has plans for him.

IF YOU OVERPAY, HE'S YOURS
These are the guys that teams either want to have on their roster at a certain salary slot - but won't overpay for - or just exercised RFA rights because they were over the cap and wanted to have a chance to push for a sign-and-trade to get SOMETHING for them. In other words, these are the really "gettable" RFAs - which means you probably have to be careful to walk the line between paying enough to win the bids, not overpaying for the talent you're getting, and not underbidding to the point where the incumbent will match. Caveat Emptor.

Jason Richardson, Timberwolves
Earl Watson, Timberwolves
I mentioned above I think the Wolves are ready to go into the tax for Joe Johnson - much like Murphy and Radmanovic, I doubt both Richardson and Watson will both be back. Neither is a max player, but if you pay them fair market value, the Wolves will match them. Overpay one - or both - and I think the Wolves let them go. I think Watson is less expendable than Richardson, and I expect Richardson to see a lot of suitors in RFA.

Chris Anderson, Warriors
The Warriors aren't contenders and they know it. Throw enough money at Birdman and I think the Warriors will let him fly the coop.

Mike James, Suns
He's a nice talent with a great three-point shot, but the Suns can afford to match if you offer him what he's probably worth. Overpay a bit, and the Suns, who don't have a lot of cap wiggle room, might let him go.

Eddie Griffin, TunaBucks
Nice defensive big man who can still grow defensively, but you'd better believe the Bucks don't want to pony up big money for a guy who averaged 3.5 points in 19 minutes last season. The Bucks are hoping he's overlooked so he can be signed on the cheap, but give him a slightly inflated contract and they may decide he's not worth it.

Loren Woods, Magic
Pretty much the same situation as Eddie Griffin. Rebounder and shotblocker with almost no offensive talent to speak of. Like Griffin, the Magic will be looking to lowball him and hope he gets no other offers.

Jason Collins, Pistons
Worst RFA of the bunch - Griffin/Woods without the defense. A contract much over the veteran minimum is probably enough to get him out of Detroit... and probably more than you should pay him.

[LoCo89]

Always wigged out when my real name is on the forums

But good insights nonetheless

[IamQuailman]

AwARDED 5 POINTS! Thanks!