#SLOE: People's Basketball Sim League

Hey Ladies and Germs,

A couple notes about this version:
- First, the Clippers and Jazz are not included in the rankings. My data formula doesn't like the Clippers 0 road games or the Jazz 0 wins, and so I was getting really screwy results. So they're not in this version so I could get a Sim 1 version out there. Hopefully the Jazz win a game this sim so the next version is complete!
- Definitely a surprise to see the undefeated Lakers in 4th, however the model doesn't like their strength of schedule, nor that 2/3 of those games were at home. Still, with a point diff of 26+, I'd have expected them 1 or 2. I'd chalk this up to small sample size, and the model usually has some funky results after just one sim.
- The Johnson division continues to lead these rankings with 4 of the top 6 teams.

Probably not much else notable after one sim, but excited to see the results after today!

Dude, definitely well-established by now that the Power Rankings hate the Lakers. #facts

TheSyndicate wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 1:38 pm - Definitely a surprise to see the undefeated Lakers in 4th, however the model doesn't like their strength of schedule, nor that 2/3 of those games were at home. Still, with a point diff of 26+, I'd have expected them 1 or 2. I'd chalk this up to small sample size, and the model usually has some funky results after just one sim.

They DID have two games against the Knicks that they won by over 40 points each, so that probably skews that differential a little bit.

Top 6 teams, all Alpha!

Same deal as last season: +5 for initial work. Each update will get you a point.

Alright, now that there's been 4 sims we have a little better idea what we're dealing with (not to mention we actually have all 26 teams included (yay!).
The Wiz have the best record in the league, but due to an extremely home-heavy schedule, they're only 3rd in our rankings, and honestly, no offense to Mr. Nice Guy* but that's probably a rung or two high.
All in all, not a lot of surprises in the rankings, and they're pretty close to aligning with the actual won-loss records, but they are pretty well divided into tiers:
Tier 1:
Bulls and Heat - Pretty clearly the class of the league so far. Each team with 7 losses, a double digit point differential, an average opponent strength, and an even home/road split.
Tier 2:
Wizards, Lakers, Pistons, Clippers, Nuggets, Magic, Spurs
These next 7 teams are all pretty close to eachother in both the standings and the power ranks. All have some weakness to point to (whether home/road split, strength of schedule, or point differential) for why they're in this tier as opposed to higher, but have banked enough wins to avoid the next tier.
Tier 3:
Pels, 76ers, Bucks
Just not quite good enough so far to be included above, but they're a clear step better than the next group (those teams that are pretty close to .500)
Tier 4:
T-Wolves, Mavs, Blazers, Pacers, Thunder, Nets
These 6 teams are all around, or just below .500. This group includes the Blazers and Pacers with worse records, but a road heavy schedule (Blazers) or very difficult slate (Pacers) combined with an even point differential.
Tier 5:
Everyone else. Anyone in this tier has very little to point to in the numbers to defend being higher.




*Only a reference to the H&F podcast, xist really is a nice guy

TheSyndicate wrote: Tue Sep 08, 2020 11:57 am Tier 2:
Wizards, Lakers, Pistons, Clippers, Nuggets, Magic, Spurs
These next 7 teams are all pretty close to eachother in both the standings and the power ranks. All have some weakness to point to (whether home/road split, strength of schedule, or point differential) for why they're in this tier as opposed to higher, but have banked enough wins to avoid the next tier.

Or having traded away their extremely talented frontcourt.

Prior to the sim today, let's see where things stand!

All-Star Power Rankings!!
New Tiers (Tier changes from previous in parentheses):
Tier 1: Bulls, Heat, Wizards (+1)
Tier 2: 76ers(+1), Pistons, Magic, Lakers, Nuggets
Tier 3: Clippers (-1), Spurs (-1), Pelicans, Bucks, T-Wolves (+1)
Tier 4: Pacers, Nets, Mavs
Tier 5: Everyone else (including the Thunder/Blazers who were previously in Tier 4)

Oooooh, feisty.

overall total of +10