The 2034 Boban Report
Posted: Tue May 12, 2020 8:21 pm
With the 2033-34 season almost coming to a close, many are already looking forward to perhaps the most exciting time in PBSL - the offseason. Of course the draft is a huge part of that, but this year's class is...underwhelming, to say the least. However, as many of us know, there's more to a player's potential than ratings alone. One of Magic GM False9's many claims to fame was his unprecedented spending to turn an O/B prospect into the P/P juggernaut known as Boban. So in that same spirit, I thought it might be interesting to look at the "top" prospects from a developmental perspective - if you were to commit to these guys as a key piece, what would the price point be? What should you focus on? Who has the highest ceiling? Alternatively, if you're not willing or able to spend big, who are the best value prospects, guys who can reach top-level production with minimal investment? Now keep in mind that this doesn't factor in foul ratings, which I assume we won't be able to determine until the players are actually on a PBSL roster, and that could potentially be a big additional cost. I also won't touch much, if at all, on stamina, because it's not really fully understood how much that affects a player's output.
Larry Duley
As the projected #1 pick, Duley's definitely a talented player, but in this case I think he's ranked number one not because of his skills, or even his size, but because of how simple his skillset is. Duley is as straightforward as it gets for a big prospect, with only his ORB needing a 25-point boost from C to B. It's certainly possible to turn him into a versatile big, but the cost would simply be too damn high. Duley has Ds and sub-20 ratings in JPS, PAS, 3PS and PRD (also 36/D in FTS), so unless he gets an unexpected boost in TC, investing in any of those is a complete waste of time. Ratings that low should be left to chance. More promising is his athleticism, 38 QKN and 56 JPS is amazing for a 7'1" guy, and the primary reason why he's listed as a PF instead of a C. 20 points (7 in QKN, 13 in JMP) gets you 41 QKN and 61 JPS, and from there it's your call if you want to relax and hope for TC improvement, or go even bigger and shoot for 50/70. To be totally honest, I wouldn't bother. Duley is what he is. He will score inside, he will rebound, he will defend the post and cause turnovers and blocks. Nothing more, nothing less. It will only take 45 points (as of now) to round out his talent, and after that, it's really just a matter of how good you want him to be at his job from an athletic standpoint (spending more points to increase his QKN/JMP), or how quickly you want results (spending points to boost his currents). Draft him, spend the points necessary to get him B potential in ORB and 41/61 QKN/JPS, and let nature take its course.
Paul Cassel
The projected #2 pick is Duley Jr. in a lot of ways. He's smaller for one, but he's also just as straightforward as Duley is. Whereas Duley had one glaring flaw that required immediate attention in ORB, Cassel comes with everything you would want in a 6'9" bruiser PF right out of the gate, with an added bonus: B/B/B FTS/HND/PAS. Remember Buddy Pedraza? Here's his reincarnation. Literally the only thing you will need to spend points on immediately is his QKN, and it will only cost you at most 22 points over two seasons to get him to 41 QKN. That's all. 22 points is all you need to get to a point where the only questions are "how effective" and "how quickly". He's not as strong as Duley, who's elite right out of the gate at 96 STR, but Cassel's 73 STR isn't too shabby, and get this: Cassel has 66 JMP. So if you're willing to splurge, turning Cassel into an elite interior athlete with 81/81 STR/JMP is not only possible, but fairly cheap all things considered. Put it this way, whereas 45 points in one season gets you B ORB and 41/61 QKN/JMP with Duley, 41 points in one season with Cassel gets you 36 QKN, 78 STR, and 71 JMP to go along with his As in INS/ORB/DRB/PSD and Bs in FTS/HND/PAS. That's amazing. Cassel is the most cost-effective player in this draft by far, and just by that fact alone, should seriously be considered as a viable #1 overall selection.
David Thaxton
Now here's where things get interesting. Thaxton's one of the few players in this draft who I see immediate purple potential in. Now before you lotto GMs start your engines, creating (or drafting) a purple player is not easy. Once you cross that purple potential threshold, you're stuck, you're officially locked out of improving him, his future is totally in the hands of TC. So, the dilemma with creating a purple guy is figuring out how to get the most of manual training before having to leave further development up to fate. And to be honest...I have no idea how to do that. But here's my thoughts anyway! Thaxton's already primed to be an offensive force (A ratings across the board in INS/JMP/FTS/3PS), but 6' is a bit too small to comfortably slot him in at SG, so goal #1 should be boosting his HND and PAS. He has a B in PAS, so that's good, but 18/C in HND is just a step above awful. 25 points will have to be spent immediately. Just as ugly is his 13/D in STL, but that's just a step above "lost cause." Now, improving Thaxton's HND means that he will only have one category without at least C potential (the aforementioned STL) and two without at least a B (add ORB to that). Now while that may not be enough to actually reach purple potential, when you look at what Julio De La Rosa looked like when he was drafted and compare...even with JLDR's 5 inches over Thaxton, it's a pretty good bet that even with an average TC, Thaxton has a really good shot at being at least O/P after his 1st TC. So now you see the problem: Thaxton's up-front cost is way higher than most other prospects, because whatever you want to do with him, you almost have to do it now. With Duley, Cassel, and all of the other talent in this list, you can always opt to spread out their training over several seasons, but that's not the case with Thaxton. Not only can one good TC (what if he gains B HND and C STL naturally?) turn his potential purple in an instant, but making sure to improve his only glaring weakness in HND will only push him closer to potentially freezing you out of any future training, meaning you're stuck with any flaws, like low currents due to being orange. On the plus side, if you are willing to spend big on Day 1, which is at least 60 (25 for HND potential, 20 for STL potential, 15 for increasing current HND from 18 to 28), you have a near-lock for a future Top 3 PG who can do it all...even things he logically shouldn't be able to (like rebound, hold steady in the post, and...block shots???). If you have the points in reserve to spend, Thaxton should 100% be #1 on your draft board, period.
Chris Bevins
Bevins is kind of a forgotten man amongst the top prospects, a familiar predicament for a projected #4. As far as this article's concerned, "forgotten" means that despite being far less straightforward than Duley, Cassel, and Thaxton, Bevins is no less as talented, and much more versatile in terms of choosing how to build him. Unlike Thaxton, the omnipresent danger of the purple potential training freeze isn't there, as F potentials in PRD and BLK (useless ratings for him, so whatever) as well as 54 STA (ugly for a guard, even given the mystery of how much stamina actually matters...I miss kucoach) pretty much hard cap his ceiling at blue. This obviously allows for much greater freedom in his training timeline, but what direction should you take him in? If you're looking for the most cost-effective option, then all you really need to do is spend points on STR. At 6'4" with elite QKN/JMP and A potential in INS, Bevins already has all he needs to be a top-notch slasher, with a STR boost from 46 to say, 61 (at maximum of 39 points over 3 seasons) being the proverbial cherry on top. He even has B potential in HND to eventually keep him from getting the ball stripped. So yeah, increase his STR, figure out what to do with his low STA, and you're done. You could also spend 25 to his STL to add perimeter defense to his list of strengths, or replace 25 in STL with 25 in JPS to make him a budget Thaxton who can actually play SG. If you're really salty over not getting Thaxton and really want to blow cash, 75 points to get Bs in JPS, PAS, and STL turns Bevins into a 6'4" PG without the imminent threat of purple stunting his growth. As you can see, Bevins gets better and better the more you're willing to spend (duh), but you don't really have to. That's why I think he's the projected #4 - it basically means "don't be afraid to pick him in the Top 3 if the fit is better". And honestly, I think he's a very viable pick for high-rollers who really want Thaxton but miss out on him, and perhaps a dark horse #1 if Thaxton's size is a big turn-off. However, if you're not really looking to spend, then I don't think he's worth picking over Duley and Cassel, fit be damned. Those two have ready-made intangibles (Duley's B in STL, Cassel's B in PAS) in addition to easily-trained elite athleticism and currents tailor-made for their roles. Bevins only has two of the three. As for Bevins vs. Thaxton...man, it really comes down to Bevins' height and lack of "train now!!!" pressure vs. Thaxton's overwhelming potential.
Marcel McAlister
Well so much for interesting, now things get ugly. Bevins is really the only top "choose your own adventure" talent in the lotto, now we're supposedly at guys who are just as limited in their role as Cassel, but with far less to make up for it. We'll see if that holds. As for Marcel, he's a prime example of "limited role, few intangibles" - he's an offensive wing. That's it. Now, he's very good at it, and will take minimal investment to excel in that role (13 points to increase his QKN to 70, 48 at maximum over 4 seasons to get to 81), but if you want anything more out of him, then you're going to have to spend. Even then, all you really can do is drop 25 on increasing his PRD from C to B (along with a little extra for his currents) to at least make him a complete two-way SF, rather than the mediocre defender he seems destined to be. Everything else is just too low to matter. Not much more to say here, you know exactly what you're getting with MMA.
Ferguson Olney
Olney's an offensive SG. That's it. There's even less to work with here than with Marcel, unless you want to boost his BLK to B and try to take advantage of his height on defense (6'8"). That's 25 points that could just as easily go to his JPS or athleticism though, and at only 71 QKN, he probably needs the points there instead. 71 is temporary SG speed, not starting SG speed. Getting him to that level (81) will cost you a minimum of 30 points over two seasons. I can see why MMA's projected higher, as his elite (82) JMP and ready-made offensive game already puts him ahead of Olney on that level (Olney only has 70 JMP), and boosting MMA's defense means giving him the ability to defend both the perimeter and the post, thus giving him the ability to play SG as well as SF, while boosting Olney's defense just lets him guard opposing SGs a bit better by virtue of using his height to reject the shots of smaller guards. Marcel is more versatile and cheaper overall, while Olney can be a great specialist, but also a more expensive one.
Darrin Nagel
Did you really, really want Duley, but some jerk GM picked him ahead of you? Well, here's his slightly shorter, less-athletic cousin...but there are some unexpected bonuses here that make Nagel a very good value pick, especially for those looking hard at Duley. Nagel trades Duley's B potentials in STL and HND for an A in ORB and C in JPS, which is...pretty darn good, all things considered. And his poor athleticism is only a problem if you wanted a PF, if your plan for Duley was to stick him at C, then Nagel's slowness and lack of vertical shouldn't bother you much, if at all. Nagel even managed to keep C potential in STL rather than dump it entirely, so let's go to the numbers. Remember that 45 points for Duley to get up to speed on his rebounding game and maximize his athleticism? Well, 50 points lets Nagel match Duley in STL and exceed him in offensive potential, all while outclassing him on the boards and shooting better from the line. And again, lower athleticism doesn't really matter all that much if you never intended to draft a PF in the first place, so yeah...I think Nagel's the clear #5 prospect here, not Marcel. He's literally the Bevins to Duley's Thaxton, in where it's debatable whether or not you would actually take Nagel over Duley, but they're close enough to where you almost don't care which one you end up with, especially if you're willing to spend. I really like this guy.
Bradley Isenberg
Hoo boy, this is an interesting one. Isenberg's one of those guys who's either going to be a fake blue, a TC casualty, or a "wow, where'd he come from" kind of guy. Getting him to that last point is going to take a lot of TC luck and points though, because my goodness are those a lot of Cs. The cheapest route is to just accept his obvious role as a jump shooter and spend 25 points on his PRD to make him more of a defensive specialist. This sounds more like a bench spark than a legit starter, but sadly enough, that's his most likely path. I know his athleticism makes it tempting to invest in his offense, but it's a mirage. 72 JMP means almost nothing when paired up with 18 INS at C potential. His 3PS is decent (43), but C potential means you have no choice but to drop 25 more points in order to increase it. If you do go all-in, have it be in HND/PAS. A defensive, pass-first PG sounds a bit meh, but at 6'7", he can abuse smaller guards defensively and comfortably utilize his JPS by shooting over them. However, 75 points total is a bit much to invest in somebody who probably won't be a star, but on the other hand, why would you draft this guy that high, if not for that potential? Long story short, Isenberg is not a smart guy to invest in. He's the kind of guy you draft and wait for a good (or bad TC) to show you what to do with him. The potential is there, but it can go to waste very easily. Whether or not you're comfortable taking a guy like that in the top 10 is up to you.
Clyde Jones
YIKES. I might have to take back a bit of what I said about Brad, because Clyde...is in no way, shape, form, or fashion a top 10 prospect. Jones is a finisher, nothing more. Not a shooter, a finisher. He can't create, he can't defend. All he can do is take shots, and only from inside the arc at that. You can spend 25 in 3PS to change that, but why would you? At 6'9" with no real nuance to his game at all, the prime objective with Clyde is to increase his QKN and JMP at all costs so that he can hopefully excel as the guy on the receiving end of his teammates' passes (actually, a fully-developed Isenberg/Jones guard duo could synergize well). To do that, you will have to spend a maximum of 102 points over 5 (!) seasons to get to the 81/81 QKN/JMP threshold. I would also consider investing in STR as well to help Clyde use his size to finish his drives effectively. If you're not willing to commit to that, do not draft this guy in the Top 10, maybe not even the lotto. Even if you max this guy out, he may not be much more than a ballhog, better served coming off the bench to terrorize weaker lineups as opposed to wrecking your main unit's effectiveness as a starter. That is not what you want from a lotto pick. Best to let nature take its course with this one.
Brian May
May has a little bit more going for him than Jones does, but they're still cut from the same cloth. May's much shorter at 6'4", but he's still a finisher. He has some potential to drive and dish with C potential in PAS, but investing in that seems a bit much to pay just to boost a situational ability. Luckily, May is only a maximum of 18 points away from reaching an 81/83 QKN/JMP threshold, which pretty much allows him to immediately step in and do his duty off the bench (and as a 21-year-old, you really want him to get to work quickly). His INS could very well stagnate at 61, as his B potential cuts that off, but I definitely wouldn't spend 30 points just to make a filler guard better. An added bonus is his B potential in STL, further cementing his role as an energy guy off the bench. May seemingly comes with everything you need out of the box, making a prime cost-effective option for those looking to get the most out of their lower-level lotto pick.
Dwayne Palacio
On first glance, Palacio is to Cassel what Nagel is to Duley - a more expensive, but no less interesting and talented consolation prize for those who really wanted the premium option but had to settle. However, it's a bit more complicated than that. See, whereas Cassel's potentials are laser-focused on one role, Palacio trades that focus in for middling (Cs in JMP/FTS/3PS) potential offensively, while also losing a bit defensively (C PSD, Bs in ORB/DRB). So that means you have a classic case of "this guy could turn out better, but it'll cost me" when it comes to Palacio. It'll take 25 points right off the bat (in PSD) to even relatively get Palacio up to par with Cassel defensively, and if you want to take full advantage of his better offensive capabilities? That's 50 more points. Add that to the fact that Palacio, despite his strength, is more finesse-oriented than Cassel and thus has drastically lower JMP (48), you might want to throw at least 13 points to get him to 53 JMP. That's a total of 88 points to clearly give him the advantage over Cassel...but you only have to spend 25 extra on Cassel (in STL) for him to catch right back up as the defensive yang to Palacio's offensive yin. Add that to the 41 I mentioned for Cassel earlier, and that's only 66 points for Cassel as opposed to Palacio's 88, and we haven't even touched on boosting currents, or spending 25 more on Palacio's BLK to give him the advantage over Cassel again. So as you can see, I'm a bit unsure how to recommend Palacio to big spenders. If you're frugal, you take Cassel 100% of the time, but if you're willing to invest heavily in your pick, then Palacio definitely has a strong case, though the costs are astronomical and would turn Cassel into an absolute train if spent on him instead. I suppose it all comes down to what you value. If you're looking for an offensive PF who can spread the floor, go with Palacio. If defense and ball control are more your thing, take Cassel. And if you want Cassel because he's relatively cheap and are stuck looking at Palacio instead? Choose where you want to invest in and do it quick, because he's 22 at the time of this writing.
Mike Burnham
Man, if you're in the market for a C, this is turning out to be a really promising draft class. Burnham's basically Diet Nagel, and Nagel's already Diet Duley. So does that make Burnham Duley Zero? I dunno, but I do know that everything I said for Nagel kinda applies to Burnham. If you came into this draft looking to invest in a C, then the only real difference between Duley, Nagel, and Burnham is how much it'll cost to get him in the conversation for best big taken in this draft. The 50 points it took to get Nagel on the same level as Duley gets Burnham in a weird position to where he's both less than and comparable to Nagel/Duley, as he shares most of Nagel's strengths as compared to Duley, just on a lower level, with more Cs and Bs as opposed to Bs and As. He does have one fatal flaw that hikes his investment price up though - 65 STR is pretty darn lame compared to Nagel's 82 and Duley's 96, and despite STR being the only athletic rating to grow fairly consistently (STA tends to fluctuate, it can drop just as quickly as it rises), it's still going to take a maximum of 48 points over 4 seasons to get him just beneath Nagel at 81, and at that cost, you might as well just drop 25 on his ORB instead to solidify has status as a mini-Nagel, pocket the 23 points as change, and hope for the best in terms of TC STR growth. Overall, Burnham is excellent value in terms of talent (if not investment cost), and it has to be great to be a lotto team looking for a C and knowing that no matter what, you can come away with exactly what you came for, especially if you've got cash in reserve.
Arthur Rex
I'm going to end this by talking about Arthur Rex, and he is exactly why I gave Isenberg such a hard time. Rex is basically Isenberg, but with higher current ratings for the most part, and Cs everywhere. I'm not kidding here, Rex only has two Ds, one in DRB and one in INS, as opposed to Isenburg's two Ds and an F. There's even an A thrown in (FTS) for good measure when comparing Rex vs Isenberg. Basically, if you're willing to invest the points necessary to help Isenburg reach his full potential, anything you do would be better spent on Rex, as he's far better suited to take full advantage of it. However, Rex is not without his own problems. His D is in INS, which is just sad (though it's still 11 points higher than Isenberg...at 29...). And despite being an amazing all-around athlete with a 67/69/67 QKN/STR/JMP stat spread, Rex is the prototypical SF in that he's fast enough to be a SF, but too slow to be a swingman; strong enough to power through opponents, but too weak to consistently do damage inside; has the vertical to leap, but not to fly. Unlocking his full potential athletically will require an ungodly amount of points (a minimum of 117 over 3 seasons), but an 81/81/81 QKN/STR/JMP stat spread is just disgusting to think about on a prospect as versatile as Rex. That's the thing, Rex might be top 5 in this draft in terms of max investment yielding superstar results, but that brings us to his biggest weakness - Rex is 23. So by the time you've finished your 117-point crusade to turn Rex into a Top 10 athlete comparable to the likes of David Leiker, Bronny James, and Bjorn Ironside, he'll be 26, in his prime, and about to lose TC insurance protection. And this isn't even thinking about developing his other skills. Rex's up-front investment cost is insane. It's the highest in this draft by far, and it even exceeds Boban levels easily. It's also extraordinarily high-risk - 21's often old enough to drop a prospect a few spots, 23 takes them out of the top half of the draft entirely. But if ever you were to take a wild gamble (or even a more calculated one and focus on turning him into the perfect all-around SF), this guy's the one. I'm very interested to see who takes the plunge on Rex, and what they do with him once they get him. I don't think Rex has a prayer of reaching his potential through TC alone, but with proper (or excessive) investment...who knows.
And with that I'll bring this scouting report to a close, as I've been typing for hours, and I'd very much like to enjoy my evening now. Hope y'all enjoyed reading this writeup as much as I enjoyed thinking it up! As always, comments and further discussion are welcome and encouraged.
Larry Duley
As the projected #1 pick, Duley's definitely a talented player, but in this case I think he's ranked number one not because of his skills, or even his size, but because of how simple his skillset is. Duley is as straightforward as it gets for a big prospect, with only his ORB needing a 25-point boost from C to B. It's certainly possible to turn him into a versatile big, but the cost would simply be too damn high. Duley has Ds and sub-20 ratings in JPS, PAS, 3PS and PRD (also 36/D in FTS), so unless he gets an unexpected boost in TC, investing in any of those is a complete waste of time. Ratings that low should be left to chance. More promising is his athleticism, 38 QKN and 56 JPS is amazing for a 7'1" guy, and the primary reason why he's listed as a PF instead of a C. 20 points (7 in QKN, 13 in JMP) gets you 41 QKN and 61 JPS, and from there it's your call if you want to relax and hope for TC improvement, or go even bigger and shoot for 50/70. To be totally honest, I wouldn't bother. Duley is what he is. He will score inside, he will rebound, he will defend the post and cause turnovers and blocks. Nothing more, nothing less. It will only take 45 points (as of now) to round out his talent, and after that, it's really just a matter of how good you want him to be at his job from an athletic standpoint (spending more points to increase his QKN/JMP), or how quickly you want results (spending points to boost his currents). Draft him, spend the points necessary to get him B potential in ORB and 41/61 QKN/JPS, and let nature take its course.
Paul Cassel
The projected #2 pick is Duley Jr. in a lot of ways. He's smaller for one, but he's also just as straightforward as Duley is. Whereas Duley had one glaring flaw that required immediate attention in ORB, Cassel comes with everything you would want in a 6'9" bruiser PF right out of the gate, with an added bonus: B/B/B FTS/HND/PAS. Remember Buddy Pedraza? Here's his reincarnation. Literally the only thing you will need to spend points on immediately is his QKN, and it will only cost you at most 22 points over two seasons to get him to 41 QKN. That's all. 22 points is all you need to get to a point where the only questions are "how effective" and "how quickly". He's not as strong as Duley, who's elite right out of the gate at 96 STR, but Cassel's 73 STR isn't too shabby, and get this: Cassel has 66 JMP. So if you're willing to splurge, turning Cassel into an elite interior athlete with 81/81 STR/JMP is not only possible, but fairly cheap all things considered. Put it this way, whereas 45 points in one season gets you B ORB and 41/61 QKN/JMP with Duley, 41 points in one season with Cassel gets you 36 QKN, 78 STR, and 71 JMP to go along with his As in INS/ORB/DRB/PSD and Bs in FTS/HND/PAS. That's amazing. Cassel is the most cost-effective player in this draft by far, and just by that fact alone, should seriously be considered as a viable #1 overall selection.
David Thaxton
Now here's where things get interesting. Thaxton's one of the few players in this draft who I see immediate purple potential in. Now before you lotto GMs start your engines, creating (or drafting) a purple player is not easy. Once you cross that purple potential threshold, you're stuck, you're officially locked out of improving him, his future is totally in the hands of TC. So, the dilemma with creating a purple guy is figuring out how to get the most of manual training before having to leave further development up to fate. And to be honest...I have no idea how to do that. But here's my thoughts anyway! Thaxton's already primed to be an offensive force (A ratings across the board in INS/JMP/FTS/3PS), but 6' is a bit too small to comfortably slot him in at SG, so goal #1 should be boosting his HND and PAS. He has a B in PAS, so that's good, but 18/C in HND is just a step above awful. 25 points will have to be spent immediately. Just as ugly is his 13/D in STL, but that's just a step above "lost cause." Now, improving Thaxton's HND means that he will only have one category without at least C potential (the aforementioned STL) and two without at least a B (add ORB to that). Now while that may not be enough to actually reach purple potential, when you look at what Julio De La Rosa looked like when he was drafted and compare...even with JLDR's 5 inches over Thaxton, it's a pretty good bet that even with an average TC, Thaxton has a really good shot at being at least O/P after his 1st TC. So now you see the problem: Thaxton's up-front cost is way higher than most other prospects, because whatever you want to do with him, you almost have to do it now. With Duley, Cassel, and all of the other talent in this list, you can always opt to spread out their training over several seasons, but that's not the case with Thaxton. Not only can one good TC (what if he gains B HND and C STL naturally?) turn his potential purple in an instant, but making sure to improve his only glaring weakness in HND will only push him closer to potentially freezing you out of any future training, meaning you're stuck with any flaws, like low currents due to being orange. On the plus side, if you are willing to spend big on Day 1, which is at least 60 (25 for HND potential, 20 for STL potential, 15 for increasing current HND from 18 to 28), you have a near-lock for a future Top 3 PG who can do it all...even things he logically shouldn't be able to (like rebound, hold steady in the post, and...block shots???). If you have the points in reserve to spend, Thaxton should 100% be #1 on your draft board, period.
Chris Bevins
Bevins is kind of a forgotten man amongst the top prospects, a familiar predicament for a projected #4. As far as this article's concerned, "forgotten" means that despite being far less straightforward than Duley, Cassel, and Thaxton, Bevins is no less as talented, and much more versatile in terms of choosing how to build him. Unlike Thaxton, the omnipresent danger of the purple potential training freeze isn't there, as F potentials in PRD and BLK (useless ratings for him, so whatever) as well as 54 STA (ugly for a guard, even given the mystery of how much stamina actually matters...I miss kucoach) pretty much hard cap his ceiling at blue. This obviously allows for much greater freedom in his training timeline, but what direction should you take him in? If you're looking for the most cost-effective option, then all you really need to do is spend points on STR. At 6'4" with elite QKN/JMP and A potential in INS, Bevins already has all he needs to be a top-notch slasher, with a STR boost from 46 to say, 61 (at maximum of 39 points over 3 seasons) being the proverbial cherry on top. He even has B potential in HND to eventually keep him from getting the ball stripped. So yeah, increase his STR, figure out what to do with his low STA, and you're done. You could also spend 25 to his STL to add perimeter defense to his list of strengths, or replace 25 in STL with 25 in JPS to make him a budget Thaxton who can actually play SG. If you're really salty over not getting Thaxton and really want to blow cash, 75 points to get Bs in JPS, PAS, and STL turns Bevins into a 6'4" PG without the imminent threat of purple stunting his growth. As you can see, Bevins gets better and better the more you're willing to spend (duh), but you don't really have to. That's why I think he's the projected #4 - it basically means "don't be afraid to pick him in the Top 3 if the fit is better". And honestly, I think he's a very viable pick for high-rollers who really want Thaxton but miss out on him, and perhaps a dark horse #1 if Thaxton's size is a big turn-off. However, if you're not really looking to spend, then I don't think he's worth picking over Duley and Cassel, fit be damned. Those two have ready-made intangibles (Duley's B in STL, Cassel's B in PAS) in addition to easily-trained elite athleticism and currents tailor-made for their roles. Bevins only has two of the three. As for Bevins vs. Thaxton...man, it really comes down to Bevins' height and lack of "train now!!!" pressure vs. Thaxton's overwhelming potential.
Marcel McAlister
Well so much for interesting, now things get ugly. Bevins is really the only top "choose your own adventure" talent in the lotto, now we're supposedly at guys who are just as limited in their role as Cassel, but with far less to make up for it. We'll see if that holds. As for Marcel, he's a prime example of "limited role, few intangibles" - he's an offensive wing. That's it. Now, he's very good at it, and will take minimal investment to excel in that role (13 points to increase his QKN to 70, 48 at maximum over 4 seasons to get to 81), but if you want anything more out of him, then you're going to have to spend. Even then, all you really can do is drop 25 on increasing his PRD from C to B (along with a little extra for his currents) to at least make him a complete two-way SF, rather than the mediocre defender he seems destined to be. Everything else is just too low to matter. Not much more to say here, you know exactly what you're getting with MMA.
Ferguson Olney
Olney's an offensive SG. That's it. There's even less to work with here than with Marcel, unless you want to boost his BLK to B and try to take advantage of his height on defense (6'8"). That's 25 points that could just as easily go to his JPS or athleticism though, and at only 71 QKN, he probably needs the points there instead. 71 is temporary SG speed, not starting SG speed. Getting him to that level (81) will cost you a minimum of 30 points over two seasons. I can see why MMA's projected higher, as his elite (82) JMP and ready-made offensive game already puts him ahead of Olney on that level (Olney only has 70 JMP), and boosting MMA's defense means giving him the ability to defend both the perimeter and the post, thus giving him the ability to play SG as well as SF, while boosting Olney's defense just lets him guard opposing SGs a bit better by virtue of using his height to reject the shots of smaller guards. Marcel is more versatile and cheaper overall, while Olney can be a great specialist, but also a more expensive one.
Darrin Nagel
Did you really, really want Duley, but some jerk GM picked him ahead of you? Well, here's his slightly shorter, less-athletic cousin...but there are some unexpected bonuses here that make Nagel a very good value pick, especially for those looking hard at Duley. Nagel trades Duley's B potentials in STL and HND for an A in ORB and C in JPS, which is...pretty darn good, all things considered. And his poor athleticism is only a problem if you wanted a PF, if your plan for Duley was to stick him at C, then Nagel's slowness and lack of vertical shouldn't bother you much, if at all. Nagel even managed to keep C potential in STL rather than dump it entirely, so let's go to the numbers. Remember that 45 points for Duley to get up to speed on his rebounding game and maximize his athleticism? Well, 50 points lets Nagel match Duley in STL and exceed him in offensive potential, all while outclassing him on the boards and shooting better from the line. And again, lower athleticism doesn't really matter all that much if you never intended to draft a PF in the first place, so yeah...I think Nagel's the clear #5 prospect here, not Marcel. He's literally the Bevins to Duley's Thaxton, in where it's debatable whether or not you would actually take Nagel over Duley, but they're close enough to where you almost don't care which one you end up with, especially if you're willing to spend. I really like this guy.
Bradley Isenberg
Hoo boy, this is an interesting one. Isenberg's one of those guys who's either going to be a fake blue, a TC casualty, or a "wow, where'd he come from" kind of guy. Getting him to that last point is going to take a lot of TC luck and points though, because my goodness are those a lot of Cs. The cheapest route is to just accept his obvious role as a jump shooter and spend 25 points on his PRD to make him more of a defensive specialist. This sounds more like a bench spark than a legit starter, but sadly enough, that's his most likely path. I know his athleticism makes it tempting to invest in his offense, but it's a mirage. 72 JMP means almost nothing when paired up with 18 INS at C potential. His 3PS is decent (43), but C potential means you have no choice but to drop 25 more points in order to increase it. If you do go all-in, have it be in HND/PAS. A defensive, pass-first PG sounds a bit meh, but at 6'7", he can abuse smaller guards defensively and comfortably utilize his JPS by shooting over them. However, 75 points total is a bit much to invest in somebody who probably won't be a star, but on the other hand, why would you draft this guy that high, if not for that potential? Long story short, Isenberg is not a smart guy to invest in. He's the kind of guy you draft and wait for a good (or bad TC) to show you what to do with him. The potential is there, but it can go to waste very easily. Whether or not you're comfortable taking a guy like that in the top 10 is up to you.
Clyde Jones
YIKES. I might have to take back a bit of what I said about Brad, because Clyde...is in no way, shape, form, or fashion a top 10 prospect. Jones is a finisher, nothing more. Not a shooter, a finisher. He can't create, he can't defend. All he can do is take shots, and only from inside the arc at that. You can spend 25 in 3PS to change that, but why would you? At 6'9" with no real nuance to his game at all, the prime objective with Clyde is to increase his QKN and JMP at all costs so that he can hopefully excel as the guy on the receiving end of his teammates' passes (actually, a fully-developed Isenberg/Jones guard duo could synergize well). To do that, you will have to spend a maximum of 102 points over 5 (!) seasons to get to the 81/81 QKN/JMP threshold. I would also consider investing in STR as well to help Clyde use his size to finish his drives effectively. If you're not willing to commit to that, do not draft this guy in the Top 10, maybe not even the lotto. Even if you max this guy out, he may not be much more than a ballhog, better served coming off the bench to terrorize weaker lineups as opposed to wrecking your main unit's effectiveness as a starter. That is not what you want from a lotto pick. Best to let nature take its course with this one.
Brian May
May has a little bit more going for him than Jones does, but they're still cut from the same cloth. May's much shorter at 6'4", but he's still a finisher. He has some potential to drive and dish with C potential in PAS, but investing in that seems a bit much to pay just to boost a situational ability. Luckily, May is only a maximum of 18 points away from reaching an 81/83 QKN/JMP threshold, which pretty much allows him to immediately step in and do his duty off the bench (and as a 21-year-old, you really want him to get to work quickly). His INS could very well stagnate at 61, as his B potential cuts that off, but I definitely wouldn't spend 30 points just to make a filler guard better. An added bonus is his B potential in STL, further cementing his role as an energy guy off the bench. May seemingly comes with everything you need out of the box, making a prime cost-effective option for those looking to get the most out of their lower-level lotto pick.
Dwayne Palacio
On first glance, Palacio is to Cassel what Nagel is to Duley - a more expensive, but no less interesting and talented consolation prize for those who really wanted the premium option but had to settle. However, it's a bit more complicated than that. See, whereas Cassel's potentials are laser-focused on one role, Palacio trades that focus in for middling (Cs in JMP/FTS/3PS) potential offensively, while also losing a bit defensively (C PSD, Bs in ORB/DRB). So that means you have a classic case of "this guy could turn out better, but it'll cost me" when it comes to Palacio. It'll take 25 points right off the bat (in PSD) to even relatively get Palacio up to par with Cassel defensively, and if you want to take full advantage of his better offensive capabilities? That's 50 more points. Add that to the fact that Palacio, despite his strength, is more finesse-oriented than Cassel and thus has drastically lower JMP (48), you might want to throw at least 13 points to get him to 53 JMP. That's a total of 88 points to clearly give him the advantage over Cassel...but you only have to spend 25 extra on Cassel (in STL) for him to catch right back up as the defensive yang to Palacio's offensive yin. Add that to the 41 I mentioned for Cassel earlier, and that's only 66 points for Cassel as opposed to Palacio's 88, and we haven't even touched on boosting currents, or spending 25 more on Palacio's BLK to give him the advantage over Cassel again. So as you can see, I'm a bit unsure how to recommend Palacio to big spenders. If you're frugal, you take Cassel 100% of the time, but if you're willing to invest heavily in your pick, then Palacio definitely has a strong case, though the costs are astronomical and would turn Cassel into an absolute train if spent on him instead. I suppose it all comes down to what you value. If you're looking for an offensive PF who can spread the floor, go with Palacio. If defense and ball control are more your thing, take Cassel. And if you want Cassel because he's relatively cheap and are stuck looking at Palacio instead? Choose where you want to invest in and do it quick, because he's 22 at the time of this writing.
Mike Burnham
Man, if you're in the market for a C, this is turning out to be a really promising draft class. Burnham's basically Diet Nagel, and Nagel's already Diet Duley. So does that make Burnham Duley Zero? I dunno, but I do know that everything I said for Nagel kinda applies to Burnham. If you came into this draft looking to invest in a C, then the only real difference between Duley, Nagel, and Burnham is how much it'll cost to get him in the conversation for best big taken in this draft. The 50 points it took to get Nagel on the same level as Duley gets Burnham in a weird position to where he's both less than and comparable to Nagel/Duley, as he shares most of Nagel's strengths as compared to Duley, just on a lower level, with more Cs and Bs as opposed to Bs and As. He does have one fatal flaw that hikes his investment price up though - 65 STR is pretty darn lame compared to Nagel's 82 and Duley's 96, and despite STR being the only athletic rating to grow fairly consistently (STA tends to fluctuate, it can drop just as quickly as it rises), it's still going to take a maximum of 48 points over 4 seasons to get him just beneath Nagel at 81, and at that cost, you might as well just drop 25 on his ORB instead to solidify has status as a mini-Nagel, pocket the 23 points as change, and hope for the best in terms of TC STR growth. Overall, Burnham is excellent value in terms of talent (if not investment cost), and it has to be great to be a lotto team looking for a C and knowing that no matter what, you can come away with exactly what you came for, especially if you've got cash in reserve.
Arthur Rex
I'm going to end this by talking about Arthur Rex, and he is exactly why I gave Isenberg such a hard time. Rex is basically Isenberg, but with higher current ratings for the most part, and Cs everywhere. I'm not kidding here, Rex only has two Ds, one in DRB and one in INS, as opposed to Isenburg's two Ds and an F. There's even an A thrown in (FTS) for good measure when comparing Rex vs Isenberg. Basically, if you're willing to invest the points necessary to help Isenburg reach his full potential, anything you do would be better spent on Rex, as he's far better suited to take full advantage of it. However, Rex is not without his own problems. His D is in INS, which is just sad (though it's still 11 points higher than Isenberg...at 29...). And despite being an amazing all-around athlete with a 67/69/67 QKN/STR/JMP stat spread, Rex is the prototypical SF in that he's fast enough to be a SF, but too slow to be a swingman; strong enough to power through opponents, but too weak to consistently do damage inside; has the vertical to leap, but not to fly. Unlocking his full potential athletically will require an ungodly amount of points (a minimum of 117 over 3 seasons), but an 81/81/81 QKN/STR/JMP stat spread is just disgusting to think about on a prospect as versatile as Rex. That's the thing, Rex might be top 5 in this draft in terms of max investment yielding superstar results, but that brings us to his biggest weakness - Rex is 23. So by the time you've finished your 117-point crusade to turn Rex into a Top 10 athlete comparable to the likes of David Leiker, Bronny James, and Bjorn Ironside, he'll be 26, in his prime, and about to lose TC insurance protection. And this isn't even thinking about developing his other skills. Rex's up-front investment cost is insane. It's the highest in this draft by far, and it even exceeds Boban levels easily. It's also extraordinarily high-risk - 21's often old enough to drop a prospect a few spots, 23 takes them out of the top half of the draft entirely. But if ever you were to take a wild gamble (or even a more calculated one and focus on turning him into the perfect all-around SF), this guy's the one. I'm very interested to see who takes the plunge on Rex, and what they do with him once they get him. I don't think Rex has a prayer of reaching his potential through TC alone, but with proper (or excessive) investment...who knows.
And with that I'll bring this scouting report to a close, as I've been typing for hours, and I'd very much like to enjoy my evening now. Hope y'all enjoyed reading this writeup as much as I enjoyed thinking it up! As always, comments and further discussion are welcome and encouraged.