The Lazy Statisticiian's Midseason Injury Report
Posted: Wed May 22, 2019 11:29 pm
Ah, the injury report. If you have a bad sim, it's the first thing you check to see if anything explains away a string of losses to subpar teams. As the page loads you hope beyond hope that you don't see your team name pop out at you on the list, especially up near the top. If you see it there, it's a sinking feeling, even if it does partially validate that it wasn't your game planning's fault that netted you some extra losses. You go through the stages of grief, and hopefully, that's a quick process, but some injuries transcend the game. You can feel them in your soul.
Some injuries are so bad that even when they're on an opposing team, you feel for the GM who has to deal with it, even if that GM is Ryan...and we'll get to that very soon. But because injuries are shaping this season in a strong way so far, and because they are affecting me personally, I decided to take a dive into every roster to see which teams have been hit hard by injuries and which teams have managed to roll dodge the merciless scythe of the sim reaper.
For the purposes of understanding this article, and for the purposes of explaining the extra effort it took to compile this data so that maybe the Media Point Coordinator gives me an extra point for this article, here's what I did:
1. I went over each team's page, and any player that averaged over 12 minutes a game, I counted the games they didn't play out of the total games.
2. I recorded which players, for how long, and whether they were a starter or a bench player.
3. Since I don't have any old injury stuff saved, I looked at any player's game logs if it wasn't a no-brainer that they'd be given guaranteed minutes on a DC unless they were Stephen Keitt'd. I made judgment calls based on the game logs, so my results could be a couple days off here or there if some yellow-yellow averaging 13.8 games a minute had a minor injury that looked more like a DNP - Coach's Decision without access to the box scores.
4. I decided not to put this information into a convenient form for y'all to peruse. Instead, I'll just talk about the interesting things I observed.
HOW THE WEST WAS LOST
Every season, the sim engine demands a sacrifice...a player with an injury so brutal (typically a broken leg) that it not only takes the player out of commission for triple digit days, but also smacks his potentials in a way that even TC insurance can't save (note to self or someone else: proposal to be able to trade one TC insurance for a season-long injury potential hit insurance for your entire team).
This year, that player was Jerry West, a purple/purple stud who already has 2 rings in just 5 full seasons. To add insult to injury, it happened during a sim that probably would have been re-simmed had there been a backup file due to TV submissions that weren't imported. Now, injuries are somewhat random, but the proper depth charts probably wouldn't have decreased the chance that Jerry West wasn't injured, even if he probably would've been safe due to a different value popping out of a random number generator.
That injury, however, along with the inability to re-sim without restarting the season and some ribbing that was maybe "TOO SOON" were enough to have Ryan post that he plans to leave after this season. While that might be better for Ryan's stress levels, hopefully Ryan recovers from the injury to his soul from West's un-purpling to reconsider. He's a talented, active GM, and his work on the luxury tax / RFA front is a big job that he does on time to help keep PBSL rolling. That being said, I think:
1. Scott made the right call. It'd be unfair to wipe away a legitimate sim, too.
2. Aside from the West injury, it looks like OPJ was out a game with a stinger, but that's the only other injury suffered by the Nuggets. It sucks to have one of the worst luck things happen to you in the game, but the karmic balance from signing Jeff Duren--the player to finally break AD's ridiculous MVP streak--out from under a Kings supermax and a back-to-back set of rings is at least there.
3. This is by far the worst the game has hit any team with injuries so far this season, no matter whose teams saw more injured starters or important players. I'd like to be able to say that it's the worst the game WILL hit any team with injuries for the rest of the season, too, but I know FBB holds grudges, and...
BULLHOCKEY FOR BULLS BASKETBALL
Earlier this season, I exposed a huge conspiracy against my team, and Fast Break Basketball is trying to silence me the only way it can...by injuring my best players.
So far, Patrick Edmunds has been injured on two separate occasions for a total of 14 missed games, and Leroy Haugh broke his foot for 17 missed games. Most of those overlapped. In addition, Wanderlei Silva was sidelined a game in the middle of the first sim. This is 32 total games missed by what I defined earlier as "important players." That's 7 more than the 3 teams tied for 2nd with 25 (because I can't tell if the Celtics' Rhett Bakken was actually injured, DNP Coaches Decision, or out Rockin with Dokken. It's hard to tell when the roster doesn't even have 8 players who weren't auto-signed onto the team, but it's also hard to imagine that a team with only 9 players would have one player who just never saw the court unless he was IR'd or something). Anyway, where were we?
Oh yeah, the 3 teams tied for second were the Nuggets (24 games missed by Jerry West, which we already went over), the Magic (all games missed by g/g benchmeister Aaron Gordon), and the Nets (also missing a current green benchman in Simon Pheonix). The Bulls are 22-2 in games where they aren't missing 2 starters and 6-7 in games where they are. Put that in your Pick 'Em Pipe and smoke it.
We're the only team that has had injuries to three different important players. But...
CRIPPLED CANADIANS
The ghost of Chris Benoit haunts Toronto as both of their purple potentials have been sidelined this season. First, RJ Barrett was out 14 games--also a result of that errant sim 2--and now Bjorn Ironside is out as of this last sim. It's only been 2 games so far, but it should play a significant role in further handicapping the season for Wave's boys.
It's hard to tell how either injury has affected the team...they were 5-3 when RJ Barrett got injured and won 2 games against easy opponents when Bjorn went down. They're 18-19 now, so anyone can tell you that injuries have made the Raptors worse than they'd be without them. However, with Bjorn taking credit for 11.7 wins out of 16 he's played in, this new injury threatens the Raptors record in a way that we can tell will be heavy without having any data to measure.
IS RABY BENCHING DONCIC?
I couldn't tell if green/blue Luka Doncic was injured or just benched. He's only played in 8 games, but there's no sign that this choice wasn't intentional. The T-Wolves forward spot is a crowded area with not enough minutes to go around with either Kristaps or Sabonis dipping into most of the PF minutes that Diallo doesn't play and Fanelli, Sexton, and maybe even Little also available to play the 3. I know that Doncic still looks like he's only halfway there in every category, but Collin Sexton is literally out there dropkicking motherfryers or something. He's like a Loose Cannon Melvin McCall. On average, he'd foul out every game if Raby started him and didn't take him out until he picked up all 6 of his allotted fouls.
Assuming I'm not wrong about this, the T-Wolves have managed to keep their important players healthy.
Other Perfect Attendance Awards
* San Antonio Spurs
* Sacramento Kings
* Portland Trailblazers
* Atlanta Hawks
* Vancouver Grizzlies
* Cleveland Cavaliers
* Milwaukee Bucks
* Washington Wizards
* Utah Jazz
* Golden State Warriors
* Philadelphia 76ers
That's at least 11 teams, and if you count the Celtics and Timberwolves, it could be as high as 13. Some of the teams are good teams that are taking advantage of being able to stay healthy (See the 30 game win streak Spurs and 11 game win streak Trailblazers). Other teams aren't so much (If it weren't for my definition, would the Warriors have any "important players"? If Moses Barger falls in the Staples Center and nobody is around to see it, is his stress really fractured?).
It should also be noted that Division 5, aside from the Raptors, has been indestructible so far.
Honorable Mentions
- The Charlotte Bobcats lost 21 games between D'Angelo Russell and Grayson Allen...both of their blue current starters. This is a big deal in a division where the last place team is only 6.5 games behind the division leader.
- Division 3 is a triage. The Rockets have been the least injured team with 9 important player games missed due to injury. Half of those games are Timothy Kilmer, who's not an impact player, and the other half are Frank Garden. Behind them, the Pacers lost Zion Williamson for 13 games, but he makes Collin Sexton look like Gandhi. The Lakers have 17 missed games between two yellow current starters, but who cares. The Nets and Nuggets are also in this conference, and we've touched on them earlier.
- Nick Papagiorgio has been out 15 games for the Thunder, but their regression looks to be more a result of the realignment. Papagiorgio is a solid player, but they bring him off the bench behind a couple of better players. They're 5-10 without him (5-11 if you count the game he went down) and 9-11 (or 9-10) at full strength. His injury definitely has an impact, but his health probably doesn't have enough of one to make a difference in the Thunder's playoff hopes in what appears to be the stronger of two conferences
- Remember, the Bulls are being unjustly targeted by the sim engine. Remember that come Season Awards Nomination time. And while we're at it, remember this article, too.
Some injuries are so bad that even when they're on an opposing team, you feel for the GM who has to deal with it, even if that GM is Ryan...and we'll get to that very soon. But because injuries are shaping this season in a strong way so far, and because they are affecting me personally, I decided to take a dive into every roster to see which teams have been hit hard by injuries and which teams have managed to roll dodge the merciless scythe of the sim reaper.
For the purposes of understanding this article, and for the purposes of explaining the extra effort it took to compile this data so that maybe the Media Point Coordinator gives me an extra point for this article, here's what I did:
1. I went over each team's page, and any player that averaged over 12 minutes a game, I counted the games they didn't play out of the total games.
2. I recorded which players, for how long, and whether they were a starter or a bench player.
3. Since I don't have any old injury stuff saved, I looked at any player's game logs if it wasn't a no-brainer that they'd be given guaranteed minutes on a DC unless they were Stephen Keitt'd. I made judgment calls based on the game logs, so my results could be a couple days off here or there if some yellow-yellow averaging 13.8 games a minute had a minor injury that looked more like a DNP - Coach's Decision without access to the box scores.
4. I decided not to put this information into a convenient form for y'all to peruse. Instead, I'll just talk about the interesting things I observed.
HOW THE WEST WAS LOST
Every season, the sim engine demands a sacrifice...a player with an injury so brutal (typically a broken leg) that it not only takes the player out of commission for triple digit days, but also smacks his potentials in a way that even TC insurance can't save (note to self or someone else: proposal to be able to trade one TC insurance for a season-long injury potential hit insurance for your entire team).
This year, that player was Jerry West, a purple/purple stud who already has 2 rings in just 5 full seasons. To add insult to injury, it happened during a sim that probably would have been re-simmed had there been a backup file due to TV submissions that weren't imported. Now, injuries are somewhat random, but the proper depth charts probably wouldn't have decreased the chance that Jerry West wasn't injured, even if he probably would've been safe due to a different value popping out of a random number generator.
That injury, however, along with the inability to re-sim without restarting the season and some ribbing that was maybe "TOO SOON" were enough to have Ryan post that he plans to leave after this season. While that might be better for Ryan's stress levels, hopefully Ryan recovers from the injury to his soul from West's un-purpling to reconsider. He's a talented, active GM, and his work on the luxury tax / RFA front is a big job that he does on time to help keep PBSL rolling. That being said, I think:
1. Scott made the right call. It'd be unfair to wipe away a legitimate sim, too.
2. Aside from the West injury, it looks like OPJ was out a game with a stinger, but that's the only other injury suffered by the Nuggets. It sucks to have one of the worst luck things happen to you in the game, but the karmic balance from signing Jeff Duren--the player to finally break AD's ridiculous MVP streak--out from under a Kings supermax and a back-to-back set of rings is at least there.
3. This is by far the worst the game has hit any team with injuries so far this season, no matter whose teams saw more injured starters or important players. I'd like to be able to say that it's the worst the game WILL hit any team with injuries for the rest of the season, too, but I know FBB holds grudges, and...
BULLHOCKEY FOR BULLS BASKETBALL
Earlier this season, I exposed a huge conspiracy against my team, and Fast Break Basketball is trying to silence me the only way it can...by injuring my best players.
So far, Patrick Edmunds has been injured on two separate occasions for a total of 14 missed games, and Leroy Haugh broke his foot for 17 missed games. Most of those overlapped. In addition, Wanderlei Silva was sidelined a game in the middle of the first sim. This is 32 total games missed by what I defined earlier as "important players." That's 7 more than the 3 teams tied for 2nd with 25 (because I can't tell if the Celtics' Rhett Bakken was actually injured, DNP Coaches Decision, or out Rockin with Dokken. It's hard to tell when the roster doesn't even have 8 players who weren't auto-signed onto the team, but it's also hard to imagine that a team with only 9 players would have one player who just never saw the court unless he was IR'd or something). Anyway, where were we?
Oh yeah, the 3 teams tied for second were the Nuggets (24 games missed by Jerry West, which we already went over), the Magic (all games missed by g/g benchmeister Aaron Gordon), and the Nets (also missing a current green benchman in Simon Pheonix). The Bulls are 22-2 in games where they aren't missing 2 starters and 6-7 in games where they are. Put that in your Pick 'Em Pipe and smoke it.
We're the only team that has had injuries to three different important players. But...
CRIPPLED CANADIANS
The ghost of Chris Benoit haunts Toronto as both of their purple potentials have been sidelined this season. First, RJ Barrett was out 14 games--also a result of that errant sim 2--and now Bjorn Ironside is out as of this last sim. It's only been 2 games so far, but it should play a significant role in further handicapping the season for Wave's boys.
It's hard to tell how either injury has affected the team...they were 5-3 when RJ Barrett got injured and won 2 games against easy opponents when Bjorn went down. They're 18-19 now, so anyone can tell you that injuries have made the Raptors worse than they'd be without them. However, with Bjorn taking credit for 11.7 wins out of 16 he's played in, this new injury threatens the Raptors record in a way that we can tell will be heavy without having any data to measure.
IS RABY BENCHING DONCIC?
I couldn't tell if green/blue Luka Doncic was injured or just benched. He's only played in 8 games, but there's no sign that this choice wasn't intentional. The T-Wolves forward spot is a crowded area with not enough minutes to go around with either Kristaps or Sabonis dipping into most of the PF minutes that Diallo doesn't play and Fanelli, Sexton, and maybe even Little also available to play the 3. I know that Doncic still looks like he's only halfway there in every category, but Collin Sexton is literally out there dropkicking motherfryers or something. He's like a Loose Cannon Melvin McCall. On average, he'd foul out every game if Raby started him and didn't take him out until he picked up all 6 of his allotted fouls.
Assuming I'm not wrong about this, the T-Wolves have managed to keep their important players healthy.
Other Perfect Attendance Awards
* San Antonio Spurs
* Sacramento Kings
* Portland Trailblazers
* Atlanta Hawks
* Vancouver Grizzlies
* Cleveland Cavaliers
* Milwaukee Bucks
* Washington Wizards
* Utah Jazz
* Golden State Warriors
* Philadelphia 76ers
That's at least 11 teams, and if you count the Celtics and Timberwolves, it could be as high as 13. Some of the teams are good teams that are taking advantage of being able to stay healthy (See the 30 game win streak Spurs and 11 game win streak Trailblazers). Other teams aren't so much (If it weren't for my definition, would the Warriors have any "important players"? If Moses Barger falls in the Staples Center and nobody is around to see it, is his stress really fractured?).
It should also be noted that Division 5, aside from the Raptors, has been indestructible so far.
Honorable Mentions
- The Charlotte Bobcats lost 21 games between D'Angelo Russell and Grayson Allen...both of their blue current starters. This is a big deal in a division where the last place team is only 6.5 games behind the division leader.
- Division 3 is a triage. The Rockets have been the least injured team with 9 important player games missed due to injury. Half of those games are Timothy Kilmer, who's not an impact player, and the other half are Frank Garden. Behind them, the Pacers lost Zion Williamson for 13 games, but he makes Collin Sexton look like Gandhi. The Lakers have 17 missed games between two yellow current starters, but who cares. The Nets and Nuggets are also in this conference, and we've touched on them earlier.
- Nick Papagiorgio has been out 15 games for the Thunder, but their regression looks to be more a result of the realignment. Papagiorgio is a solid player, but they bring him off the bench behind a couple of better players. They're 5-10 without him (5-11 if you count the game he went down) and 9-11 (or 9-10) at full strength. His injury definitely has an impact, but his health probably doesn't have enough of one to make a difference in the Thunder's playoff hopes in what appears to be the stronger of two conferences
- Remember, the Bulls are being unjustly targeted by the sim engine. Remember that come Season Awards Nomination time. And while we're at it, remember this article, too.