Financial Forecasts
Posted: Wed Apr 10, 2019 5:33 pm
While prepping for another article (which will be up soon), I made some brief notes on where each team sits heading into the coming off-season - how much cap do they have available and what are their presumptive needs. Some teams were easier to figure out than others. I figure in the interest of giving people a little food for thought since the team option deadline is Friday I would post this here.
76ERS - Can free up about $6 million under the cap by declining options of Stevens and Smart. Probably won't since Smart is signed at below market value. Figure they'll have the MLE available. Need a ready-to-play PF in case Chad Marsh doesn't develop fast enough or an upgrade at PG.
CELTICS - Already capped out for next season, will probably have the MLE available. Biggest position of need will be PF and SF with Judd Williams being a UFA and Nathan Thompson hitting RFA.
NETS - Already capped out for next season, will probably have the MLE available. They're solid across the 5 starting positions, so don't have a particular position of need.
RAPTORS - Likely to have only Bjorn Ironside, an RFA-maxxed RJ Barrett, and Henry Griffith on the books next season, so have space for one max plus a good percentage of another max.
KNICKS - Avoided the tax this season, and will have one max slot next season. With no star-caliber assets outside their 2027 first and Tim Locklear on a max contract, this is a ground-up rebuild that won't be good for a little while yet.
BULLS - Already capped out for next season, will probably have the MLE available. Biggest position of need is probably an upgrade over Jamey Brown/Enes Kanter as the big man next to Wanderlei Silva.
PISTONS - Close to capped out for next season; will probably have the MLE available. Need an upgrade at C or SG.
BUCKS - Have to consider that Clifford Paugh is likely to receive a max deal in RFA so the Bucks are likely to have one max salary slot available. They have a lot of young players with potential; biggest position of need is probably a ready-to-play PF/C with Thomas Knecht hitting free agency.
CAVALIERS - Can free up about $16 million if they decline Angelo Chancellor's team option and let Roland Petit walk in RFA. But Chancellors's probably underpaid considering he put up 17.8 ppg on 49% shooting and they would probably hang on to Roland Petit anyway so I would consider a decline unlikely. Figure they'll have the MLE available. Biggest need is reinforcement at the SF/SG spot.
PACERS - Could decline options on Irvin Benjamin, Daniel Randle, and Douglas Barber to drop down to about $20 million under the cap (depends on where the cap moves to next season) - not quite a max, but still probably double the MLE. They need an upgrade pretty much anywhere except PF (Milburn is excellent).
MAGIC - Boban is going to get a max in RFA, and assuming they match, that will leave them with about $15 million in cap space to play with. They need to find a second big to put next to Boban as a starter and/or replace DeSean Hawkins' production; everyone else is likely to be a veteran minimum signing.
WIZARDS - They could decline Victor Newman and Billy Kingston and come into the off-season with only about $13 million on the books - enough for 3 max deals. They will be basically a blank slate if they do this so will need to fill all positions.
HAWKS - Assuming Kuzma gets paid in RFA and Marquese Chriss doesn't shock the world and decline his player option, the Hawks are looking at one max slot plus another $10 to $15 million (depending on where the cap falls). They have some young bigs that are devleoping and their biggest position of need is to either get a true Point Guard so they can stop playing Kuzma there or to get a quality SG/SF.
BOBCATS - Finally free of the luxury tax, the Bobcats will have a max salary slot plus another $15 to $20 million to work with. Russell can play PG if need be; the Bobcats could use a strong guard (either PG or SG; Russell can play either spot) and find a way to replace free agent to be Aaron Donald's production in the middle.
NUGGETS - Could get under the cap by declining Biyombo and Robinson's options, but odds are they wouldn't be able to bring them back at those prices, and they have Bird Rights on Duren, the only significant piece of their possibly record-setting team, so I don't expect them to do so. Their priority in free agency will be weighing whether or not they can put together the points to pay the tax bill if they re-sign Duren to a supermax. They'll have access to the MLE to try to add another piece as well.
TRAILBLAZERS - Might decline the team option on Fausto Garrido, but that won't get them much under the cap. They'll probably have to rely on the MLE to add talent. They'll need to look at replacing Jaylen Brown's production at SF if they don't decide to go deep into the tax to re-sign him and could also use an upgrade at C.
TIMBERWOLVES - They're likely to decline the option on Gary Fanelli to open up two max salary slots in the off-season. With Cheick Diallo and Beau Augustin hitting free agency, they will need to find one or two bigs and/or a point guard with that money as they build around Luka and whatever the Grizzlies pick turns into.
THUNDER - They've got some big decisions to make before the end of the season, namely whether to keep or decline the team options of Eckbert Winkler, Vincente Carvalho, and Paul Webb. The feeling here you keep Winkler who IS making a max salary but is in his prime (28) and producing like a max player would (25 ppg and 10 rpg) - why gamble you can get someone else who will put up the same or worse numbers on a max deal when you've already got a sure thing putting up those numbers? You will have to decide now whether they will keep Josh Hart or let him walk - if they try to open cap space by declining options on Carvalho and Webb, that opens a max slot but if you're going to pay Hart, that cap space gets eaten right up, you don't have the MLE, and you lose Webb and Carvalho with no real way to replace them. I think the Thunder aren't ready to let Hart walk for nothing, so they'll probably hold fast, which means they won't even have the MLE available and be capped out once UFA starts.
JAZZ - Terrible by design this season, they'll have two max cap slots to play with and extra money on top of that. They have some young prospects but can use help anywhere since their guys are still raw.
KINGS - The Kings nominally have close to a max slot open in Free Agency, but will be handicapped by the fact that James Shaffer is an RFA (who may eat up most of that cap room) and that Erik Haynes is the best UFA on the market (and if they offer him a max, he's likely to be the first signing, which would kill their cap room to other players even if they allowed Shaffer to walk). Since I can't see Tani letting Erik Haynes and Shaffer both walk, I'm considering the Kings to be able to offer only the vet min in Free Agency to outside free agents.
WARRIORS - The Warriors will have close to two max salary slots to work with. Of course, they'll also have Harland Ellinger entering free agency, so they'll need to find a point guard if they don't bring him back. They also need a C - Ernest Long woun't be ready for another season or three - and an upgrade over Ash Ketchum at SG. So lots of holes here, but at least they have the cap space to try to fill them.
SUNS - No way is Lavar Ball turning down that player option, so they're looking at having almost two max slots to work with. They have a lot of depth at PF, and if they're paying Lavar that much, they may as well play him at SF, so they're going to be looking for both guards and a C.
LAKERS - Are pretty much set for a roster reset; they'll have three max slots and a blank slate with no players of consequence under contract for next season.
CLIPPERS - They're not likely to decline Moses Barger's option, especially since Phil Brooks will get paid in RFA and would wipe out any cap space that opened up anyway. They'll have the MLE to play with and their biggest need is a rebounding Center (and to get their young guys to grow up quicker).
SPURS - They're WAY over the cap next season and the season after that. They'll have access to the MLE but this is a championship caliber squad with no real "needs" - any player they add is a luxury.
ROCKETS - With the dearth of point guards around the league I'd be surprised if the Rockets decline Desus Mero's contract option. That means they'll have $20 million or so under the cap to play with - not quite a max, but a substantial amount of money. Frank Garden and Jonathan Treat are key pieces hitting free agency, so they'll be looking to either bring them back or replace them at the PF and SG spots.
PELICANS - I'm working under the assumption here that Nick doesn't decline McNary's option so the Pelicans will have roughly a max contract spot to work with. The problem is they'll only be bringing back Jokic and McNary - a C and PF - and need to fill pretty much every other slot on the team.
MAVERICKS - After accounting for the salary their draft picks will make, it's likely the Mavericks will be looking at having right around the MLE available to entice free agents. They've been playing everyone roughly egalitarian minutes so nobody really stands out; I think they're happy with their prospects at C, PG, and SG so I'm going to guess they'll be looking for a SF or PF to give minutes to.
GRIZZLIES - Now under new (steward) ownership, but still in tax hell, the Grizzlies won't have any money to spend on free agents until luxury tax relief comes. Vet minimums only here and lots of needs.
76ERS - Can free up about $6 million under the cap by declining options of Stevens and Smart. Probably won't since Smart is signed at below market value. Figure they'll have the MLE available. Need a ready-to-play PF in case Chad Marsh doesn't develop fast enough or an upgrade at PG.
CELTICS - Already capped out for next season, will probably have the MLE available. Biggest position of need will be PF and SF with Judd Williams being a UFA and Nathan Thompson hitting RFA.
NETS - Already capped out for next season, will probably have the MLE available. They're solid across the 5 starting positions, so don't have a particular position of need.
RAPTORS - Likely to have only Bjorn Ironside, an RFA-maxxed RJ Barrett, and Henry Griffith on the books next season, so have space for one max plus a good percentage of another max.
KNICKS - Avoided the tax this season, and will have one max slot next season. With no star-caliber assets outside their 2027 first and Tim Locklear on a max contract, this is a ground-up rebuild that won't be good for a little while yet.
BULLS - Already capped out for next season, will probably have the MLE available. Biggest position of need is probably an upgrade over Jamey Brown/Enes Kanter as the big man next to Wanderlei Silva.
PISTONS - Close to capped out for next season; will probably have the MLE available. Need an upgrade at C or SG.
BUCKS - Have to consider that Clifford Paugh is likely to receive a max deal in RFA so the Bucks are likely to have one max salary slot available. They have a lot of young players with potential; biggest position of need is probably a ready-to-play PF/C with Thomas Knecht hitting free agency.
CAVALIERS - Can free up about $16 million if they decline Angelo Chancellor's team option and let Roland Petit walk in RFA. But Chancellors's probably underpaid considering he put up 17.8 ppg on 49% shooting and they would probably hang on to Roland Petit anyway so I would consider a decline unlikely. Figure they'll have the MLE available. Biggest need is reinforcement at the SF/SG spot.
PACERS - Could decline options on Irvin Benjamin, Daniel Randle, and Douglas Barber to drop down to about $20 million under the cap (depends on where the cap moves to next season) - not quite a max, but still probably double the MLE. They need an upgrade pretty much anywhere except PF (Milburn is excellent).
MAGIC - Boban is going to get a max in RFA, and assuming they match, that will leave them with about $15 million in cap space to play with. They need to find a second big to put next to Boban as a starter and/or replace DeSean Hawkins' production; everyone else is likely to be a veteran minimum signing.
WIZARDS - They could decline Victor Newman and Billy Kingston and come into the off-season with only about $13 million on the books - enough for 3 max deals. They will be basically a blank slate if they do this so will need to fill all positions.
HAWKS - Assuming Kuzma gets paid in RFA and Marquese Chriss doesn't shock the world and decline his player option, the Hawks are looking at one max slot plus another $10 to $15 million (depending on where the cap falls). They have some young bigs that are devleoping and their biggest position of need is to either get a true Point Guard so they can stop playing Kuzma there or to get a quality SG/SF.
BOBCATS - Finally free of the luxury tax, the Bobcats will have a max salary slot plus another $15 to $20 million to work with. Russell can play PG if need be; the Bobcats could use a strong guard (either PG or SG; Russell can play either spot) and find a way to replace free agent to be Aaron Donald's production in the middle.
NUGGETS - Could get under the cap by declining Biyombo and Robinson's options, but odds are they wouldn't be able to bring them back at those prices, and they have Bird Rights on Duren, the only significant piece of their possibly record-setting team, so I don't expect them to do so. Their priority in free agency will be weighing whether or not they can put together the points to pay the tax bill if they re-sign Duren to a supermax. They'll have access to the MLE to try to add another piece as well.
TRAILBLAZERS - Might decline the team option on Fausto Garrido, but that won't get them much under the cap. They'll probably have to rely on the MLE to add talent. They'll need to look at replacing Jaylen Brown's production at SF if they don't decide to go deep into the tax to re-sign him and could also use an upgrade at C.
TIMBERWOLVES - They're likely to decline the option on Gary Fanelli to open up two max salary slots in the off-season. With Cheick Diallo and Beau Augustin hitting free agency, they will need to find one or two bigs and/or a point guard with that money as they build around Luka and whatever the Grizzlies pick turns into.
THUNDER - They've got some big decisions to make before the end of the season, namely whether to keep or decline the team options of Eckbert Winkler, Vincente Carvalho, and Paul Webb. The feeling here you keep Winkler who IS making a max salary but is in his prime (28) and producing like a max player would (25 ppg and 10 rpg) - why gamble you can get someone else who will put up the same or worse numbers on a max deal when you've already got a sure thing putting up those numbers? You will have to decide now whether they will keep Josh Hart or let him walk - if they try to open cap space by declining options on Carvalho and Webb, that opens a max slot but if you're going to pay Hart, that cap space gets eaten right up, you don't have the MLE, and you lose Webb and Carvalho with no real way to replace them. I think the Thunder aren't ready to let Hart walk for nothing, so they'll probably hold fast, which means they won't even have the MLE available and be capped out once UFA starts.
JAZZ - Terrible by design this season, they'll have two max cap slots to play with and extra money on top of that. They have some young prospects but can use help anywhere since their guys are still raw.
KINGS - The Kings nominally have close to a max slot open in Free Agency, but will be handicapped by the fact that James Shaffer is an RFA (who may eat up most of that cap room) and that Erik Haynes is the best UFA on the market (and if they offer him a max, he's likely to be the first signing, which would kill their cap room to other players even if they allowed Shaffer to walk). Since I can't see Tani letting Erik Haynes and Shaffer both walk, I'm considering the Kings to be able to offer only the vet min in Free Agency to outside free agents.
WARRIORS - The Warriors will have close to two max salary slots to work with. Of course, they'll also have Harland Ellinger entering free agency, so they'll need to find a point guard if they don't bring him back. They also need a C - Ernest Long woun't be ready for another season or three - and an upgrade over Ash Ketchum at SG. So lots of holes here, but at least they have the cap space to try to fill them.
SUNS - No way is Lavar Ball turning down that player option, so they're looking at having almost two max slots to work with. They have a lot of depth at PF, and if they're paying Lavar that much, they may as well play him at SF, so they're going to be looking for both guards and a C.
LAKERS - Are pretty much set for a roster reset; they'll have three max slots and a blank slate with no players of consequence under contract for next season.
CLIPPERS - They're not likely to decline Moses Barger's option, especially since Phil Brooks will get paid in RFA and would wipe out any cap space that opened up anyway. They'll have the MLE to play with and their biggest need is a rebounding Center (and to get their young guys to grow up quicker).
SPURS - They're WAY over the cap next season and the season after that. They'll have access to the MLE but this is a championship caliber squad with no real "needs" - any player they add is a luxury.
ROCKETS - With the dearth of point guards around the league I'd be surprised if the Rockets decline Desus Mero's contract option. That means they'll have $20 million or so under the cap to play with - not quite a max, but a substantial amount of money. Frank Garden and Jonathan Treat are key pieces hitting free agency, so they'll be looking to either bring them back or replace them at the PF and SG spots.
PELICANS - I'm working under the assumption here that Nick doesn't decline McNary's option so the Pelicans will have roughly a max contract spot to work with. The problem is they'll only be bringing back Jokic and McNary - a C and PF - and need to fill pretty much every other slot on the team.
MAVERICKS - After accounting for the salary their draft picks will make, it's likely the Mavericks will be looking at having right around the MLE available to entice free agents. They've been playing everyone roughly egalitarian minutes so nobody really stands out; I think they're happy with their prospects at C, PG, and SG so I'm going to guess they'll be looking for a SF or PF to give minutes to.
GRIZZLIES - Now under new (steward) ownership, but still in tax hell, the Grizzlies won't have any money to spend on free agents until luxury tax relief comes. Vet minimums only here and lots of needs.